Latest Zogby Poll - 13 point swing for McCain

[word]

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1824791220080319?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[florige]

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1824791220080319?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true



Game, set, match..... :pctoss :pctoss :bang

[MannyIsGod]

Game, set, match..... :pctoss :pctoss :bangIn march?

from a poll?

lol

[florige]

In march?

from a poll?

lol


I don't know, it just seems like all the momentum he had has fizzled out because of that jackass reverend of his.

[RandomGuy]

I don't know, it just seems like all the momentum he had has fizzled out because of that jackass reverend of his.

I believe that is correct.

This bit has hurt him.

I also believe it will be a non-issue in the main campaign.

[clambake]

dems only hope is for mccain to make speeches and statements to the press.

[florige]

I believe that is correct.

This bit has hurt him.

I also believe it will be a non-issue in the main campaign.



I hope you are right.

[boutons_]

Why hasn't McCain suffered from being endorsed by infammatory, jackass white preachers who have much more screenplay and shout louder and wider than Obama's preacher?

Because if you're a white preacher, can spout any shit and it slides right by.

America may get past it profound racism one of these centuries, but it won't be in time for November. The Dems will have to mount a huge voter mobilization drive

After 8 years of Repug disasters on every front that will carry forward for many years, how can America re-elect a dubya duplicate? because his opponent is black (or a woman).

[Extra Stout]

Why hasn't McCain suffered from being endorsed by infammatory, jackass white preachers who have much more screenplay and shout louder and wider than Obama's preacher?

Because if you're a white preacher, can spout any shit and it slides right by.

America may get past it profound racism one of these centuries, but it won't be in time for November. The Dems will have to mount a huge voter mobilization drive

After 8 years of Repug disasters on every front that will carry forward for many years, how can America re-elect a dubya duplicate? because his opponent is black (or a woman).
There are two obvious reasons that you are too stupid to understand.

[florige]

Why hasn't McCain suffered from being endorsed by infammatory, jackass white preachers who have much more screenplay and shout louder and wider than Obama's preacher?

Because if you're a white preacher, can spout any shit and it slides right by.

America may get past it profound racism one of these centuries, but it won't be in time for November. The Dems will have to mount a huge voter mobilization drive

After 8 years of Repug disasters on every front that will carry forward for many years, how can America re-elect a dubya duplicate? because his opponent is black (or a woman).



And even if he does manage to win the nomination, the party itself is still in trouble because of how long this primary has took. Especially if it happens to go all the way to the convention. And with this new major roadblock...... This has been really bad month for Obama.

[Extra Stout]

And even if he does manage to win the nomination, the party itself is still in trouble because of how long this primary has took. Especially if it happens to go all the way to the convention. And with this new major roadblock...... This has been really bad month for Obama.
Since when is running for President of the United States an easy process free of adversity?

[florige]

Since when is running for President of the United States an easy process free of adversity?



I guess I knew that it was coming. I just hoped that he could at the very least avoid something this wreckoning.

[Yonivore]

I believe that is correct.

This bit has hurt him.

I also believe it will be a non-issue in the main campaign.
McCain is loading his quiver and waiting until the debris, that will be his opponent, is jettisoned out of the Democrat Convention.

I hope he continues to kick 'em while they're down, battered, and bruised by their own party.

It's gonna be entertaining.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Why hasn't McCain suffered from being endorsed by infammatory, jackass white preachers who have much more screenplay and shout louder and wider than Obama's preacher?

Because if you're a white preacher, can spout any shit and it slides right by.

America may get past it profound racism one of these centuries, but it won't be in time for November. The Dems will have to mount a huge voter mobilization drive

After 8 years of Repug disasters on every front that will carry forward for many years, how can America re-elect a dubya duplicate? because his opponent is black (or a woman).

1. What does infammatory mean?

2. What preachers of McCain's have said the U.S. was behind 9/11, cursed this country, etc.?

3. I really want an answer from you for #2.

4. If Obama loses, it won't be because of race. It's because he wants to tax the fuck out of this country and has a lack of practical experience.

5. McCain isn't a 'Dubya duplicate', try reading sometime you twit.

6. Again, Obama won't lose because of race. For starters, it will be because of his 'plan' for America that raises the national deficit by $270 billion or whatever it is his first year in office.

We're in a recession headed for a depression, and Obama thinks the solution for all of that is socialism. THAT's why he's going to lose, not because he's a black man.

7. I hate liberal pussies who play the race card. Fuck you boutons.

[Wild Cobra]

I think this is a waste of thread count. Too early to exprapolate as anything can still happen before November.

[possessed]

After 8 years of Repug disasters on every front that will carry forward for many years, how can America re-elect a dubya duplicate? because his opponent is black (or a woman).
No, because of the same reason Democrats usually lose Presidential elections. They run leftists against moderates. The majority of the country is moderate, they don't hate the rich nor favor big government. When liberals create class warfare or talk up their social programs, the only people listening are liberals... But they already had their votes in the first place.

Stubborn Democrats.

[101A]

the lengthened primary is good for the Democrats because it keeps the party in the news and the base mobilized (i.e. giving money)

where is mccain's money?

*crickets*

those tv commercials are gonbe swaying moderates more than "beliefs"The Dems are spending money, too.

I live in PA. They're spending plenty.

[RandomGuy]

McCain is loading his quiver and waiting until the debris, that will be his opponent, is jettisoned out of the Democrat Convention.

I hope he continues to kick 'em while they're down, battered, and bruised by their own party.

It's gonna be entertaining.

Actually, you should be worried. The long primary race has energized the Democratic party in all 50 states.

You may or may not have noticed that Democratic turnout was two to four TIMES as large as GOP turnout in just about every state that held primaries/caucuses.

Some of that may have been GOPers switching just for the primary season, but enough of it wasn't to make a huge difference in the fall.

This fall will be less about who people want to vote for, and more about who people actually vote for. (it won't be about what people think, it will be about turnout)

[Extra Stout]

Actually, you should be worried. The long primary race has energized the Democratic party in all 50 states.

You may or may not have noticed that Democratic turnout was two to four TIMES as large as GOP turnout in just about every state that held primaries/caucuses.

Some of that may have been GOPers switching just for the primary season, but enough of it wasn't to make a huge difference in the fall.

This fall will be less about who people want to vote for, and more about who people actually vote for. (it won't be about what people think, it will be about turnout)
Democratic primary turnout was spectacular in 1988 as well. Michael Dukakis rode that wave all the way to the White House.

[RandomGuy]

Democratic primary turnout was spectacular in 1988 as well. Michael Dukakis rode that wave all the way to the White House.

Good point.

But GW is no Ronnie, and has no coattails for his VP to ride in on. Not that anybody but the hard core GOPers would vote for Darth Cheney...

As I have said before, the Dems will not be running against McCain. They will effectively run against Bush, and they will be successful.

I have been to some Democratic meetings, and you would be surprised at the motivation and energy level. There may be some acrimony between the Clinton/Obama camps, but I view it as probable that this will be set aside. No matter how much they might be snipping at each other now, both would rather eat poop than to see another 4-8 years of ruinous Bush policies...

[101A]

Good point.

But GW is no Ronnie, and has no coattails for his VP to ride in on. Not that anybody but the hard core GOPers would vote for Darth Cheney...

As I have said before, the Dems will not be running against McCain. They will effectively run against Bush, and they will be successful.

I have been to some Democratic meetings, and you would be surprised at the motivation and energy level. There may be some acrimony between the Clinton/Obama camps, but I view it as probable that this will be set aside. No matter how much they might be snipping at each other now, both would rather eat poop than to see another 4-8 years of ruinous Bush policies...The Dems have ALWAYS hated Bush.

It's the independents that will swing this thing. I don't think those votes are a gimme for the Dems.

McCain has enough of a Maverick label, and has butted heads with Bush, since '99 more than just about any other Republican. He is the best candidate to NOT have GW's unpopularity hung around his neck, and in case you hadn't noticed; the opinion polls show the Dem. congress even LESS popular than Bush.

[Extra Stout]

I have been to some Democratic meetings, and you would be surprised at the motivation and energy level. ..
Like 1972?

[word]

Like 1972?

lol !!

I had thought this election was going to look more like 1988 with a close poular vote, or relatively close, and an electoral blowout but more and more I'm thinking 1972 when McGovern was wholeheartedly rejected by the voter.

Either way, this thing is over. Yeah I know, it's March, but barring McCain breaking the golden rule of politics ' Never get caught in bed with a dead woman or a live child' or the economy completely melting down and I do mean meltdown, I think it's safe to say this thing is done.

[some_user86]

lol !!

I had thought this election was going to look more like 1988 with a close poular vote, or relatively close, and an electoral blowout but more and more I'm thinking 1972 when McGovern was wholeheartedly rejected by the voter.

Either way, this thing is over. Yeah I know, it's March, but barring McCain breaking the golden rule of politics ' Never get caught in bed with a dead woman or a live child' or the economy completely melting down and I do mean meltdown, I think it's safe to say this thing is done.

A lotta good that election did for the Republicans two years later...

[peewee's lovechild]

Democratic primary turnout was spectacular in 1988 as well. Michael Dukakis rode that wave all the way to the White House.

In a tank.

[TheProfessor]

While other polls reflect this trend, keep in mind that Zogby notoriously overrates his momentum swings. When Obama was making gains in places like New Jersey and California, Zogby helped fuel the idea that he was outright winning those states by significant margins.

[word]

Rasmussen shows the same trend. In fact, worse.

[word]

A lotta good that election did for the Republicans two years later...

Yes an incompetent fool for 4 years followed by 12 years of occupying the white house. Maybe Obama is Jimmy Carter. 4 for 12 isn't really a good tradeoff.

[inconvertible]

Obama has to disown that bigot and fast.....or its gonna get worse.

[some_user86]

Yes an incompetent fool for 4 years followed by 12 years of occupying the white house. Maybe Obama is Jimmy Carter. 4 for 12 isn't really a good tradeoff.

The point was that you can't extrapolate anything meaningful from singular points. Politics isn't a science, no matter if you try to shoehorn the word to describe that field of study. Each campaign and candidate is different.

We've got a long way to go before even the next primary.

[word]

The point was that you can't extrapolate anything meaningful from singular points. Politics isn't a science, no matter if you try to shoehorn the word to describe that field of study. Each campaign and candidate is different.

We've got a long way to go before even the next primary.

I admire your faith. After the primaries it's going to get worse, not better. You act like there is still a primary race. There isn't. Obama is the defacto nominee and if the democrats don't certify him as their nominee there will be riots in LA, Chicago...

If Obama wins the primary, enough of Hills base will defect. If the dems, in an insane move, give the nod to Hillary all hell will break lose and Obama supporters will stay at home. And worse I fear. Dems are in a lose-lose right now. The only thing that could POSSIBLY save them is an Obama/Clinton ticket. Even then...highly unlikely and damage done.

It's over. It's so over I can't recall a time it's been over this soon and I've been voting since 1972.

[some_user86]

I admire your faith. After the primaries it's going to get worse, not better. You act like there is still a primary race. There isn't. Obama is the defacto nominee and if the democrats don't certify him as their nominee there will be riots in LA, Chicago...

If Obama wins the primary, enough of Hills base will defect. If the dems, in an insane move, give the nod to Hillary all hell will break lose and Obama supporters will stay at home. And worse I fear. Dems are in a lose-lose right now. The only thing that could POSSIBLY save them is an Obama/Clinton ticket. Even then...highly unlikely and damage done.

It's over. It's so over I can't recall a time it's been over this soon and I've been voting since 1972.

That's exactly my point. Since we're on a BB site, I'm going to pull some NBA analogies for you. Calling anything over right now is as moronic as declaring that the Lakers were just about to win their 4th championship in 5 years in 2004 before they even played Detroit. Or handing Dallas the championship after they won the first two games of the Finals in 2006. Or calling the Spurs done after a four-game losing streak in 2008 :).

The real word isn't paper perfect. It's a long ass ride.

If I remember correctly, Dukakis led Bush late into the election cycle (October?) until that tank ad came out. Shit happens. It's a long, long, long way to go.

[word]

That's exactly my point. Since we're on a BB site, I'm going to pull some NBA analogies for you. Calling anything over right now is as moronic as declaring that the Lakers were just about to win their 4th championship in 5 years in 2004 before they even played Detroit. Or handing Dallas the championship after they won the first two games of the Finals in 2006. Or calling the Spurs done after a four-game losing streak in 2008 :).

The real word isn't paper perfect. It's a long ass ride.

If I remember correctly, Dukakis led Bush late into the election cycle (October?) until that tank ad came out. Shit happens. It's a long, long, long way to go.

Yes, but there is a thing called 'probability'. Surely you took elementary Probability and Statistics in college. There's a difference you know. You could also say, using your NBA analogy, that Portland...hell..not even that bizarre...Denver... will squeek into the playoffs and without HCA...play out of their minds and win the west...THEN..go on to to beat Boston without HCA and we are all in awe, as we should be IF that were to happen. Possible ? Yup. Likley ? No. YOU are talking possibility. I am talking probability.

PS As far as the Dukakis 'tank photo' you could also say 'wille horton' did Dukakis in. I suppose people 'zero in' more later in the election cycle but...
you have to admit the democrat primary has been 'unusual' in several ways.
When I say the outcome will look like 1988 does not mean the race itself is like 1988. The dynamics are always different.

[some_user86]

Yes, but there is a thing called 'probability'. Surely you took elementary Probability and Statistics in college. There's a difference you know. You could also say, using your NBA analogy, that Portland...hell..not even that bizarre...Denver... will squeek into the playoffs and without HCA...play out of their minds and win the west...THEN..go on to to beat Boston without HCA and we are all in awe, as we should be IF that were to happen. Possible ? Yup. Likley ? No. YOU are talking possibility. I am talking probability.

Anybody who has taken even a rudimentary level of statistics (high school? elementary?) would be able to tell you that you can't extrapolate information from such a variant and limited data set. You absolutely are not talking probability. Check your facts.


PS As far as the Dukakis 'tank photo' you could also say 'wille horton' did Dukakis in. I suppose people 'zero in' more later in the election cycle but...
you have to admit the democrat primary has been 'unusual' in several ways.
When I say the outcome will look like 1988 does not mean the race itself is like 1988. The dynamics are always different.

That's exactly my point! Every election is different. There's always something unusual, and there is only one certainty: there's a lot of time.

Just a few weeks ago Obama looked like the inevitable candidate. Before that Hilary seemed like the inevitable candidate. In June, every single media outlet was reporting on the death of the McCain campaign and had shifted focus to Romney. In 2004, Howard Dean went from the probable nominee to a crazy looking fool in a matter of hours. Etc.

Listen, in politics, things change in a matter of days. One week is a long time. Six weeks (until the next primary) is a long, long time. Eight months (until the general election) is a long, long, long time.

[word]

Latest polls show 1 in 5 democrats will defect if their candidate is not the nominee.

And the hits just keep coming ....