duncan228
03-24-2008, 04:26 PM
I put this here because it's Monroe, and because of the Duncan mention.
Please move if I messed up. :)
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/columnists/mmonroe/stories/MYSA032308.MikeMonroe.en.359f565.html
Mike Monroe: Charting top four MVP candidates
The race for Most Valuable Player is no more clear than the race for playoff positions in the Western Conference.
There is a connection, one to the other, since more and more voters like their MVPs to come from the teams that fare best during the regular season.
This, of course, begs the question: Why should any player other than Kevin Garnett even be considered for the top spot on an MVP ballot?
Garnett is the best player on the team with the league's best record, one that just rolled through Texas without a loss against teams still battling for the top spot in the West.
What argues against Garnett's ascendancy, though, is the fact he is but one corner of Boston's big three.
And when he missed nine games?
The Celtics went 7-2.
There is only one true consensus about this year's MVP race: No serious voter can omit Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul or LeBron James from a spot on his or her ballot.
(The league requires voters to allocate spots, one through five, and assigns 10 points to a first-place vote, eight to a second-place vote, etc.)
The fifth spot?
Take your pick among Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Manu Ginobili, Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Tracy McGrady, even Allen Iverson if the Nuggets make the postseason field.
The defending MVP?
Only if Dirk Nowitzki manages to personally lift the Mavericks to the top of the Western Conference by season's end.
What seems fair at this point in the season is to examine the four leading candidates as empirically as possible. For this, the tried-and-true Larry Bird rankings always are most helpful.
Long before nearly every NBA fan owned a computer, Bird, a three-time MVP (1984, 1985, 1986) during his Hall of Fame career with the Celtics, put together a formula he believed accurately quantified a player's true value. He shared it with some sports writers, who quickly dubbed it the Larry Bird Formula and applied it to what may have been the first basketball fantasy league.
It was simple and genius: Add a player's points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, then subtract missed shots, missed field goals, personal fouls and turnovers. Divide by number of games played, and compare the per-game averages.
The highest average, Bird argued, was probably the MVP.
The fact he typically had the highest mark was no coincidence.
Later, Bird agreed to eliminate fouls from the equation since some fouls — given to prevent easy baskets, for example, or to stop the clock late — were good stats, rather than bad.
Here is how this year's presumed Final MVP Four stack up in Bird numbers as teams approach their final dozen regular-season games:
•LeBron James: 64 games, 1,975 points, 521 rebounds, 473 assists, 117 steals, 67 blocks; 734 missed shots, 191 missed free throws, 218 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 31.4.
•Chris Paul: 65 games, 1,401 points, 256 rebounds, 732 assists, 177 steals, 2 blocks; 541 missed shots, 42 missed free throws, 167 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 27.96.
•Kobe Bryant: 69 games, 1,942 points, 418 rebounds, 365 assists, 133 steals, 34 blocks; 759 missed shots, 100 missed free throws, 230 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 26.13.
•Kevin Garnett: 59 games, 1,110 points, 561 rebounds, 203 assists, 86 steals, 76 blocks; 390 missed shots, 60 missed free throws, 121 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 24.83.
By Bird's reckoning, the numbers scream that James be this season's MVP. The fact the Cavaliers are fourth in the Eastern Conference weighs against this conclusion unless you believe his teammates are so average the Cavs' relatively high standing proves he is more valuable than a player like Garnett, who counts two All-Stars among his teammates.
Voters will have to decide how much weight to assign Bryant's ability to keep the Lakers at, or near, the top of the West through roster change and injury; or Paul's rise to his status as the point guard with the biggest impact is primarily responsible for the Hornets' stature in the standings.
This season, more than ever, the Bird Formula is more guideline than MVP mandate, but nonetheless useful. Certainly Stoudemire will want to use his lofty Bird average, 27.7 (trust us, we ran the numbers) to reinforce his recent assertion that he deserves MVP consideration, too.
Duncan's Bird average, by the way, is a solid 25.16, helped by his improvement this season at the foul line, where he has made 73.2 percent of his attempts.
Finally, it's distressing to hear hints that Bird could be on the way out in Indiana. Ownership has vowed to change the culture of a basketball operation that had produced little but embarrassment, on and off the court, for much too long.
Donnie Walsh, one of the smartest guys ever to run an NBA team, reportedly met with owners Mel and Herb Simon in recent days. It seems they want to keep him on board, rather than see him undertaking the rebuilding of the Knicks or Bucks.
It's hard to say what this means for Bird, but there are whispers that if Walsh stays, Bird will be shunted aside.
Those of us who believe in his MVP guide and value his friendship will be sad if he goes.
Please move if I messed up. :)
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/columnists/mmonroe/stories/MYSA032308.MikeMonroe.en.359f565.html
Mike Monroe: Charting top four MVP candidates
The race for Most Valuable Player is no more clear than the race for playoff positions in the Western Conference.
There is a connection, one to the other, since more and more voters like their MVPs to come from the teams that fare best during the regular season.
This, of course, begs the question: Why should any player other than Kevin Garnett even be considered for the top spot on an MVP ballot?
Garnett is the best player on the team with the league's best record, one that just rolled through Texas without a loss against teams still battling for the top spot in the West.
What argues against Garnett's ascendancy, though, is the fact he is but one corner of Boston's big three.
And when he missed nine games?
The Celtics went 7-2.
There is only one true consensus about this year's MVP race: No serious voter can omit Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul or LeBron James from a spot on his or her ballot.
(The league requires voters to allocate spots, one through five, and assigns 10 points to a first-place vote, eight to a second-place vote, etc.)
The fifth spot?
Take your pick among Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Manu Ginobili, Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Tracy McGrady, even Allen Iverson if the Nuggets make the postseason field.
The defending MVP?
Only if Dirk Nowitzki manages to personally lift the Mavericks to the top of the Western Conference by season's end.
What seems fair at this point in the season is to examine the four leading candidates as empirically as possible. For this, the tried-and-true Larry Bird rankings always are most helpful.
Long before nearly every NBA fan owned a computer, Bird, a three-time MVP (1984, 1985, 1986) during his Hall of Fame career with the Celtics, put together a formula he believed accurately quantified a player's true value. He shared it with some sports writers, who quickly dubbed it the Larry Bird Formula and applied it to what may have been the first basketball fantasy league.
It was simple and genius: Add a player's points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, then subtract missed shots, missed field goals, personal fouls and turnovers. Divide by number of games played, and compare the per-game averages.
The highest average, Bird argued, was probably the MVP.
The fact he typically had the highest mark was no coincidence.
Later, Bird agreed to eliminate fouls from the equation since some fouls — given to prevent easy baskets, for example, or to stop the clock late — were good stats, rather than bad.
Here is how this year's presumed Final MVP Four stack up in Bird numbers as teams approach their final dozen regular-season games:
•LeBron James: 64 games, 1,975 points, 521 rebounds, 473 assists, 117 steals, 67 blocks; 734 missed shots, 191 missed free throws, 218 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 31.4.
•Chris Paul: 65 games, 1,401 points, 256 rebounds, 732 assists, 177 steals, 2 blocks; 541 missed shots, 42 missed free throws, 167 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 27.96.
•Kobe Bryant: 69 games, 1,942 points, 418 rebounds, 365 assists, 133 steals, 34 blocks; 759 missed shots, 100 missed free throws, 230 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 26.13.
•Kevin Garnett: 59 games, 1,110 points, 561 rebounds, 203 assists, 86 steals, 76 blocks; 390 missed shots, 60 missed free throws, 121 turnovers. Bird Points/Game: 24.83.
By Bird's reckoning, the numbers scream that James be this season's MVP. The fact the Cavaliers are fourth in the Eastern Conference weighs against this conclusion unless you believe his teammates are so average the Cavs' relatively high standing proves he is more valuable than a player like Garnett, who counts two All-Stars among his teammates.
Voters will have to decide how much weight to assign Bryant's ability to keep the Lakers at, or near, the top of the West through roster change and injury; or Paul's rise to his status as the point guard with the biggest impact is primarily responsible for the Hornets' stature in the standings.
This season, more than ever, the Bird Formula is more guideline than MVP mandate, but nonetheless useful. Certainly Stoudemire will want to use his lofty Bird average, 27.7 (trust us, we ran the numbers) to reinforce his recent assertion that he deserves MVP consideration, too.
Duncan's Bird average, by the way, is a solid 25.16, helped by his improvement this season at the foul line, where he has made 73.2 percent of his attempts.
Finally, it's distressing to hear hints that Bird could be on the way out in Indiana. Ownership has vowed to change the culture of a basketball operation that had produced little but embarrassment, on and off the court, for much too long.
Donnie Walsh, one of the smartest guys ever to run an NBA team, reportedly met with owners Mel and Herb Simon in recent days. It seems they want to keep him on board, rather than see him undertaking the rebuilding of the Knicks or Bucks.
It's hard to say what this means for Bird, but there are whispers that if Walsh stays, Bird will be shunted aside.
Those of us who believe in his MVP guide and value his friendship will be sad if he goes.