McCallum: Assessing The Contenders In Stretch Run Of Great Race

[duncan228]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jack_mccallum/03/27/western.conference/index.html

Divining the West
Assessing the contenders in stretch run of great race

Regarding the NBA's Western Conference ...

Over the last few days, I've heard (among other things) that the Mavericks will fall out of the top eight; the Hornets are too inexperienced to make the Finals; the Rockets (despite their recent 22-game winning streak), will be a one-round-and-out; and no one wants to play the Warriors in the first round.

ESPN.com's John Hollinger, who crunches numbers with more facility than I crunch Cracker Jack, has even figured out the statistical futures of all playoff teams. As of this writing, his top Western team is the Lakers with a 22 percent chance of making the Finals and a 10.3 percent chance of winning it all.

That sounds about right. But the three words you need to remember about the Western Conference race are these: Nobody knows anything. Including me. But with time running out, and a keen sense of the three-word mantra -- nobody knows anything -- here is a team-by-team assessment of what could be the most competitive conference playoff in NBA history:

Los Angeles Lakers

Red-letter dates remaining: Back-to-back home games against the Hornets and Spurs on April 11 and 13.

Strongest recent statement: Monday's 123-119 road win over Golden State that followed a 115-111 loss to the Warriors at home.

Uh-oh factor: Will everyone still stand around and watch Kobe Bryant in the cauldron of the postseason?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... New Orleans. Bryant would have to waste some energy chasing around Chris Paul, and Tyson Chandler would be able to limit the productivity of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom inside (though a healthy Andrew Bynum would make that more difficult).

Best guess on playoff placement: Despite Wednesday's hiccup against Charlotte, Pacific Division champion, No. 1 seed and first-round meeting with Denver or Dallas.

New Orleans Hornets

Red-letter dates remaining: April 8 home game against the Jazz and April 11 road game at the Lakers.

Strongest recent statement: Hammering the Spurs by 25 and the Rockets by 21 (which preceded a comeback victory against visiting Boston), even if they were at home, and trumping a potential LeBron James game-winner with David West's buzzer-beating jumper on Wednesday in Cleveland.

Uh-oh factor: Will lack of playoff experience (for nearly everyone except Peja Stojakovic) be too much to overcome?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Utah. Deron Williams would take it as a personal challenge going against Paul, and Jazz coach Jerry Sloan would devise a defense to limit West and Stojakovic.

Best guess on playoff placement: Southwest Division champion, No. 2 seed and first-round meeting with Golden State.

San Antonio Spurs

Red-letter dates remaining: April 9 home against the Suns and April 13 road game at the Lakers.

Strongest recent statement: An 88-81 comeback road win against desperate Dallas (the game in which Dirk Nowitzki was injured) last Sunday.

Uh-oh factor: Is there enough behind the Big Three act of Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Golden State. The Spurs sometimes have trouble slowing down the Warriors, who put up 130 points against them in an overtime game at Golden State in January. Golden State loves to tattoo the Texas favorites, as Dallas found out last season.

Best guess on playoff placement: Southwest runner-up, No. 3 seed and first-round meeting with Houston.

Utah Jazz

Red-letter dates remaining: April 8 road game at New Orleans and April 16 road game at San Antonio.

Strongest recent statement: A 110-92 road win against the Celtics on March 14.

Uh-oh factor: Will Mehmet Okur's outside shooting be sharp enough to be a factor?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Houston. The Rockets will have learned lessons from last season's first-round elimination at the hands of the Jazz.

Best guess on playoff placement: Northwest Division champion, No. 4 seed and first-round meeting with Suns.

Phoenix Suns

Red-letter dates remaining: Back-to-back road games at San Antonio and Houston on April 9 and 11.

Strongest recent statement: Gutsy 94-87 home win against the Spurs on March 9 that followed four losses in five games. Then again, that was a while ago.

Uh-oh factor: Will they miss Shawn Marion's perimeter defense against players like Bryant, Paul, Parker, Ginobili and Williams?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Spurs. True, the Suns have lost all four to the Hornets this season, but defending against Duncan and running the offense with Bruce Bowen guarding Steve Nash have always been difficult for the Suns.

Best guess on playoff placement: Pacific runner-up, No. 5 seed and first-round meeting with Utah.

Houston Rockets

Red-letter dates remaining: Wearying five-game road swing that begins Sunday in San Antonio.

Strongest recent statement: Beating Golden State 109-106 on March 21 in Oakland after the bloom had come off the 22-game winning streak.

Uh-oh factor: Did the Rockets exhaust their ammo during the streak?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Spurs. The Rockets have played their Texas rivals well this season, but give Gregg Popovich extended time to stop Tracy McGrady, and it's all over.

Best guess on playoff placement: Southwest third-place finisher, No. 6 seed and first-round meeting with Spurs.

Golden State Warriors

Red-letter dates remaining: Four-game road swing (beginning April 1) with stops in San Antonio, Dallas and New Orleans.

Strongest recent statement: That road win against the Lakers. (It's been a rather easy month.)

Uh-oh factor: They can surprise, but do they have enough inside for the long haul?

Toughest playoff matchup would be ... Suns. There is still no evidence that, over a long series, they play the up-tempo game better than Phoenix does.

Best guess on placement: Pacific third-place finisher, No. 7 seed and first-round meeting with Hornets.

Dallas Mavericks

Red-letter dates remaining: Well, all of them, but season-ending home game against Hornets could decide playoff fate.

Strongest recent statement: There haven't been any.

Uh-oh factor: Besides the obvious question about Dirk Nowitzki's availability, can Jason Kidd provide some signs of life as the Mavs fight to stay in the top eight?

Best guess on playoff placement: Fourth-place finisher in the Southwest, and I give them a 50-50 chance of holding on to the No. 8 seed and earning a first-round meeting with the Lakers.

Denver Nuggets

Red-letter dates remaining: Thursday's home game against Dallas begins a Mavs-Warriors-Suns-Suns quadruple.

Strongest recent statement: We're going back in time, but consecutive home wins over Phoenix and San Antonio in early March.

Uh-oh factor: Will their always questionable defense rise to the occasion to lift them from their current ninth-place position?

Best guess on playoff placement: Northwest runner-up, with a 50-50 chance of passing Dallas to gain a first-round matchup with the Lakers.

[Supreme_Being]

I guess McCallum doesn't know how to 'Believe'

[urunobili]

thanks duncan228! this scenarios seem very likely...

[Crookshanks]

Dallas Mavericks

Red-letter dates remaining: Well, all of them, but season-ending home game against Hornets could decide playoff fate.

Strongest recent statement: There haven't been any.

Uh-oh factor: Besides the obvious question about Dirk Nowitzki's availability, can Jason Kidd provide some signs of life as the Mavs fight to stay in the top eight?

Best guess on playoff placement: Fourth-place finisher in the Southwest, and I give them a 50-50 chance of holding on to the No. 8 seed and earning a first-round meeting with the Lakers.
OUCH - that's gotta hurt if you're a Mavs fan!

[CubanMustGo]

OUCH - that's gotta hurt if you're a Mavs fan!

He should have said

Strongest recent statement: 0-8 against .500+ teams since the Kidd trade

[wildbill2u]

Whatever, the WC playoffs are gonna be a b-i-t-c-h.

[peewee's lovechild]

Our boys will get the #1 seed.

I can almost smell it.

[K-State Spur]

i get a kick out of how all these analysts think that GSW is the toughest match-up for the Spurs.

nothing against the Warriors and I'm not saying that it would be a cakewalk, but in a series, the Spurs would find ways to negate their transition and force them into a halfcourt team.

[Crookshanks]

i get a kick out of how all these analysts think that GSW is the toughest match-up for the Spurs.

nothing against the Warriors and I'm not saying that it would be a cakewalk, but in a series, the Spurs would find ways to negate their transition and force them into a halfcourt team.
Yep! That's the strength of the Spurs. In a 7-game series, they almost always find a way to negate the other team's strong points. That shows the intelligence and veteran leadership of the Spurs - both on the part of the players and the coaches.

[Allanon]

I'm pretty sure the Lakers would gladly take the Mavs without Dirk in the first round.

Spurs getting the Rockets in the first round would also be a good matchup for them.

[peewee's lovechild]

i get a kick out of how all these analysts think that GSW is the toughest match-up for the Spurs.

nothing against the Warriors and I'm not saying that it would be a cakewalk, but in a series, the Spurs would find ways to negate their transition and force them into a halfcourt team.

The Mavs handing their asses to them last year gave them too much credibility.

[barbacoataco]

Since all the teams are within a couple games of each other, it is total guess work as far as predicting match-ups.

[Cry Havoc]

My only question is, why aren't the Spurs the worst possible matchup for every team? Including the Spurs, since we have a propensity to beat ourselves.

Is there a single team in the WC that another team would want to face less in the playoffs? Unless you're the Mavs.

[Crookshanks]

My only question is, why aren't the Spurs the worst possible matchup for every team? Including the Spurs, since we have a propensity to beat ourselves.

Is there a single team in the WC that another team would want to face less in the playoffs? Unless you're the Mavs.
Exactly! I think it was Jeff VanGundy who made that observation a couple of weeks ago. They were talking about playoff matchups and he said "does any team want to face the Spurs in the 1st round?"

We're still the Champs until someone takes it away from us and the road to the Championship still runs through San Antonio! :clap

[tlongII]

New Orleans will get the #1 seed.

[peewee's lovechild]

New Orleans will get the #1 seed.

We'll see.

How many sheep would you like to wager?

[monosylab1k]

The Mavs handing their asses to them last year gave them too much credibility.
i think you worded that incorrectly.

[Solid D]

Predicting Western Conference Playoffs matchups could not even be an educated guess by anyone. The 5th seed is 1 game behind the 1st seed at this date.

[peewee's lovechild]

i think you worded that incorrectly.

:lol :lol :lol

Yea, I did.

Or, was I just being sarcastic?

That's what I get for posting when I'm busy working.

[peewee's lovechild]

Predicting Western Conference Playoffs matchups could not even be an educated guess by anyone. The 5th seed is 1 game behind the 1st seed at this date.

Yea, it's going to go down to the wire to figure out the matchups.

[1Parker1]

Not to mention Lakers lost to the Bobcats last night and the Spurs ALMOST lost to the Clippers while last night while the Hornets JUST squeaked out a win against the Pistons. No game is neccesarily a gimme and so it's even harder to predict where teams will fall in the end.

I do agree, I think the Spurs best first round opponent is the Houston and to an extent the Warriors. Other than that, every opponent would be difficult especially for a 1st round matchup.

[Spurs Brazil]

I'd love to see the Rockets in the 1st round.

I think it would be the best matchup for us in the 1st round

[diego]

i'd like to have a rough team to start. i think that will help our guys get their shit together, and could possibly allow us to get a good 2nd round matchup if we fall down in the seeding. the nuggs have been a good opponent in this sense, because they come out and slap us in the face for game 1 and then we become the physical team we should be.

you've got to beat them all anyway. there isnt one team that stands out to me as more of a threat/matchup problem than another