Playoff seed and tiebreakers

[GSH]

We are only 1 game behind the Hornets, but they have a 2-game advantage in the loss column. That is huge, because it means that they would have to lose 2 more games than us, over the last 12 games... just for us to have a chance to tie with them. The problem is, a tie with New Orleans probably isn't good enough, as the Hornets are very close owning all the tie-breakers with us. They haven't locked the tie-breakers up, but they have a lead in them, so they would have to give us some additional help.

If we were to end up in a tie with the Hornets, the current tie-breaker situation looks like this:

1. The first tie breaker is head-to-head. We split the season 2-2 with them.
2. The second tie breaker would be the division records, since we are both in the same division. Right now, they have a 1-game advantage in the loss column, but they only have 1 more division opponent to play, which is Dallas the last game of the season. In other words, if New Orleans wins their last game, they would beat us on the second tie-breaker. IF Dallas wins that game we would be tied for the second tie breaker, and move on to the third.
3. The third tie-breaker would be conference records. Right now, they have a 2 game advantage in the loss column. That means that they would have to lose at least 2 of their remaining games against Western Conference teams. That could happen, but we would also have to run the table against the rest of our WC opponents, just to tie for the third tie breaker.
4&5. The fourth and fifth tie-breakers would compare our records against playoff teams, first in the West, then in the East. I haven't figured up where we would stand in that comparison, but it probably isn't good.
6. The final tie-breaker would compare our point differentials. We are too far behind in that stat to catch up by the end of the season.

Bottom line, the Spurs would have to win the division outright over the Hornets. The tie-breaker situation effectively gives the Hornets a 3-game advantage in the loss column. In other words, the Hornets would have to lose 3 games more than we do over the last 12 games of the season. So, for instance, if we were to go 10-2 for the rest of the season, the Hornets would have to go 7-5 for us to win the division. That could happen. But as well as the Hornets are playing, I wouldn't bet on it. Barring some injury, the division title and the Number 1 playoff seed, probably belong to the Hornets.

(The Spurs could easily get the Number 2 or 3 seed in the West. But to do that, they need to finish ahead of the Rockets. That makes Sunday's game against Houston huge for determining our seeding in the playoffs. They way things are shaping up, I think we will either be a #2 seed and face #7 Golden State in the first round, or a #5 seed, and face #4 Houston in the first round.)

[DAF86]

we just need a top 3 seed

[m33p0]

........
(The Spurs could easily get the Number 2 or 3 seed in the West. But to do that, they need to finish ahead of the Rockets. That makes Sunday's game against Houston huge for determining our seeding in the playoffs. They way things are shaping up, I think we will either be a #2 seed and face #7 Golden State in the first round, or a #5 seed, and face #4 Houston in the first round.)
General consensus is that both matchups work in favor of the Spurs. :toast

[Indazone]

Bring on the Spurs. That would be a good series.

[conqueso]

...
2. The second tie breaker would be the division records, since we are both in the same division. Right now, they have a 1-game advantage in the loss column, but they only have 1 more division opponent to play, which is Dallas the last game of the season. In other words, if New Orleans wins their last game, they would beat us on the second tie-breaker. IF Dallas wins that game we would be tied for the second tie breaker, and move on to the third.
3. The third tie-breaker would be conference records. Right now, they have a 2 game advantage in the loss column. That means that they would have to lose at least 2 of their remaining games against Western Conference teams. That could happen, but we would also have to run the table against the rest of our WC opponents, just to tie for the third tie breaker.

If we actually make it to the third tie-breaker, that assumes that the Hornets have lost to the Mavericks, which means they'd be one game up in the loss column against Western Conference opponents.

The Spurs' (26-16) remaining games against WC teams:

Minnesota
Houston
Golden State
@Utah
@Portland
Phoenix
Seattle
@Lakers
@Sacramento
Utah

The Hornets' (34-15, with loss to Mavs) remaining games against WC teams:

Golden State
Utah
@Minnesota
@Lakers
@Sacramento
Clippers
@Dallas (ASSUMED LOSS)

If the Spurs win out and the Hornets lose any one of those games, we tie for the third tie breaker.

[FromWayDowntown]

If the Spurs win on Sunday (not discounting the importance of Friday night's tilt with the T'Wolves), the Spurs will own the tiebreaker over Houston -- as someone else pointed out in an earlier thread.

A win on Sunday makes the season series 2-2. The next tiebreaker would be division record; each team plays 16 divisional games. The Spurs are 9-6 against the Southwest and the Rockets are 8-7, making Sunday's game the last divisional game for each team. A Spurs win would make them 10-6 in the division while dropping the Rockets to 8-8, and securing the 2nd tiebreaker for the Spurs.

It would also give the Spurs a chance to tie the Hornets for the 2nd tiebreaker (as noted in the original post) and bring up the possibility of relying on the 3rd tiebreaker. As it stands, the Hornets have only 7 games remaining against the West (v. GST, v. UTH & @ MIN (back-to-back), @LAL & @SAC (back-to-back), v. LAC & @DAL (back-to-back)) while the Spurs have 10 games remaining in the conference (MIN, HOU, GST, @UTH, @PRT, PNX, SEA, @LAL & @SAC (back-to-back), UTH). It would seem unlikely that the Spurs would catch the Hornets now in terms of conference record without vaulting over the Hornets in the standings anyway. In simplest terms, however, a Spurs loss against Houston would basically put them significantly behind in the division (they'd automatically lose the tiebreakers against each of those teams) and would virtualy guarantee that the Spurs could do no better than the #5 seed without substantial, substantial help.

[spursfaninla]

Things are very fluid still...could be several very possible scenarios. I think NO should have the 1 wrapped up. LA has the easier schedule compared to SA and NO, but LA is also hurt and not playing as well lately. Also, NO is ahead of everybody already so they get the benefit of the doubt. SA is tied with the lakers and Houston; however, we are healthy compared to both teams so that should be in our favor down the stretch.

1 NO v. dal/gs
2 SA v. gs/DAL
3 LA v. PHX/HOU
4 UT v. PHX/HOU


The other likely possibilities:

1 NO v daL/gs
2 LA v GS/DAL
3 HOU/sa v PHX
4 UT v sa/hou

SA will probably be 3rd I think, but we have outside chances to be 2nd or 5th.

[DAF86]

1-Lakers
2-Spurs
3-Rockets
4-Jazz
5-Hornets
6-Suns
7-Warriors
8-Nuggets

that's how i think the seeds'll end up based on remaining schedules.

[honestfool84]

Bring on the Spurs. That would be a good series.


yeah, it would be a good series for the spurs - spurs in five, thus giving us plenty of rest. (and a 4-1 series win is very realistic)

[Allanon]

Lakers are playing without any kind of center for over a week now so they've stumbled a bit. With Pau back this week, they should be able to win

vs Memphis
vs Wizards
vs Blazers
vs Dirk-less Dallas

Andrew Bynum returns as a supersub to warm up against
@Sacramento
@Portland

Before coming home for good to play
@ Clippers
vs New Orleans
vs San Antonio
vs Sacramento

Lakers are in a comfortable position to win out the rest of their games if Bynum returns as a sub vs Kings. Only 2 games in question would be the Spurs and Hornets but they're in Los Angeles so the Lakers have the edge.

I see Hornets dropping in the coming weeks and Spurs moving up. I don't see the Rockets sliding much at all (only 3 more playoff teams on schedule). Suns will slide along with the bottom 3. If the Spurs can win in LA against the Lakers, they'll probably take the #1 seed...that is a big if though (ABC game in the afternoon and in LA with Bynum back)


1. Lakers
2. Rockets
3. Spurs
4. Jazz
5. Hornets
6. Suns
7. Warriors
8. Mavericks or Nugz

[spursfaninla]

Bynum is using an "anti-gravity treatmill"...

I don't know what that means, but it doesn't sound like he is just 2 or even 3 weeks away to me.

Gasol should come back soon, but it is questionable how soon exactly. I heard he will miss another game or 2.

I don't think the Lakers hold things together missing their bigs. I'm not sure Gasol will be 100% even when he gets back for a game or 2.

Bynum will be a sub for the playoffs IMO, at best.

[Allanon]

Bynum is using an "anti-gravity treatmill"...

I don't know what that means, but it doesn't sound like he is just 2 or even 3 weeks away to me.

Gasol should come back soon, but it is questionable how soon exactly. I heard he will miss another game or 2.

I don't think the Lakers hold things together missing their bigs. I'm not sure Gasol will be 100% even when he gets back for a game or 2.

Bynum will be a sub for the playoffs IMO, at best.

I think you're quite right on all accounts. Lakers are too small right now since they're missing 3 centers.

Memphis won't be much of a problem without Pau...they have Milicic and Kwame as their Centers. Pau should be back 80% or so for the Wizards which should be enough...but Wizards don't have much of an inside game so it's OK without Pau.

Blazers would be very bad for the Lakers with an 80% Pau but ROY is out so this is another win. Pau should be pretty much 100% by the Dallas game without Dirk so the Lakers catch quite a few breaks.

I don't get the whole "anti-gravity" treadmill thing either. It would seem to me that he'd be running around on the hardwood by now if he's coming back in 2 weeks. But that's what they say so who am I to argue :)

And Bynum off the bench in the Playoffs sounds like a good idea to me too.

[DazedAndConfused]

I don't give a shit about the Laker's seeding really. We have perhaps the worst HCA of any team in the league considering we share the same court as the Clippers. Our road record is one of the best in the league so it won't be much of an issue.

All we need is health. If our team is fully healthy the only teams we won't want to face in the 1st round are PHX and SAS. Ideally we drop to the #5 seed and play UTA with HCA. That is the sweet spot IMHO.

[Allanon]

Getting #1 lets you play the injured Mavs / No-D Nuggets or small Ball Warriors in the 1st round.

The Lakers don't have much of a home court advantage but the point is that the other 2nd round teams have relatively poor road records except for the Hornets. So there's a good chance they will lose 3 at the Lakers and since the Lakers are a good road team, they have a chance to steal 1 away.

Utah 16-21
Spurs 20-17
Phx 21-14 (most of the road wins were against the East, they lost most of their road WC games)