Remaining schedules for Western conference leaders

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I was wondering how the Spurs remaining schedule compares to the other Western conference contenders. (I've bolded the games against Western playoff contending teams) Amazingly, with under 12 games to go in the regular season you can make a prediction of the seedings with zero percent chance of accuracy in the Western conference. That being said, here's how I see the stretch run wrapping up. I love this game!!



Spurs 49-23, currently 1 game behind N.O.

Games remaining: 10 (6 home/4 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 6 (4 home/2 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 0

March
Fri 28 vs Minnesota
Sun 30 vs Houston
April
Tue 01 vs Golden State
Fri 04 @ Utah
Sun 06 @ Portland
Wed 09 vs Phoenix
Fri 11 vs Seattle
Sun 13 @ LA Lakers
Mon 14 @ Sacramento
Wed 16 vs Utah

Prognosis: While the remaining Spurs schedule is tough, I would rank the Hornets, Suns and perhaps the Jazz remaining schedules as tougher. The Spurs can't sleepwalk through any more games, but I think the players have finally figured that out. The road games games at Utah and LA will both be tough but if the Spurs play Spurs basketball the remainder of the season I see them losing perhaps once more at home and on the road. Should the Spurs take a couple of games off, however, they could easily slip to 6-4 or even 5-5 in this remaining 10 game stretch. Predicted final record: 57-25.





Lakers 49-23, currently 1 game behind N.O.
Games remaining: 10 (7 home/3 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 3 (3 home/0 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 1 (1 home/0 road)


March
Fri 28 vs Memphis
Sun 30 vs Washington
April
Wed 02 vs Portland
Fri 04 vs Dallas
Sun 06 @ Sacramento
Tue 08 @ Portland
Thu 10 @ LA Clippers
Fri 11 vs New Orleans
Sun 13 vs San Antonio
Tue 15 vs Sacramento

Prognosis: The Lakers have, by far, the easiest remaining schedule this season of any Western contender. They play seven of their remaining ten games at home and their only three games against playoff teams are all at Staples. If they had all their horses healthy and in the stable I'd say a 9-1 finish would not only be possible, but probable. Even with injuries, if they can't go 7-3 over these last ten games they aren't as great as Jim Rome says they are. Predicted final record: 56-26






Hornets 49-21, currently 1st in the West
Games remaining: 12 (4 home/8 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 4 (2 home/2 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 3 (0 home/3 road)

March
Fri 28 @ Boston
Sun 30 @ Toronto
April
Tue 01 @ Orlando
Wed 02 @ Miami
Fri 04 vs New York
Sun 06 vs Golden State
Tue 08 vs Utah
Wed 09 @ Minnesota
Fri 11 @ LA Lakers
Sat 12 @ Sacramento
Tue 15 vs LA Clippers
Wed 16 @ Dallas

Prognosis: New Orleans has to play eight road games out of it's remaining twelve, including games at Boston, at Orlando, at the Lakers and at Dallas. Luckily for the Hornets they get teams like Miami, New York, the T'Wolves and the Clippers sprinkled in to keep their confidence up. Circle that April 16 game against Dallas -- If the Hornets have the West sewn up will Byron Scott pull an Avery Johnson and give his first round opponent their playoff berth? Despite how great the Hornets are playing, I don't see them doing better than nine and three down this tough final stretch. Luckily for them, that should be just good enough. Predicted final record: 58-24.





Rockets 49-23, currently 1 game behind N.O.
Games remaining: 10 (3 home/7 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 4 (1 home/3 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 0 (0 home/0 road)

March
Sun 30 @ San Antonio
April
Tue 01 @ Sacramento
Thu 03 @ Portland
Fri 04 @ Seattle
Sun 06 @ LA Clippers
Wed 09 vs Seattle
Fri 11 vs Phoenix
Sun 13 @ Denver
Mon 14 @ Utah
Wed 16 vs LA Clippers

Prognosis: The Big Red Machine has kind of a good news/bad news thing going on with the remainder of their schedule. Bad: seven of ten remaining games on the road. Good: Two games remaining against both the Clippers and the Sonics. Bad: Three of the four games against Western playoff teams are road games. Good: The Rockets start April with five straight games against Western also-rans. Bad: Yao is still hurt. Prediction: 7-3 finish. 56-26 overall record.




Jazz 47-25, Currently 3 games behind N.O.
Games remaining: 10 (6 home/4 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 6 (3 home/3 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 1 (1 home/0 road)

March
Fri 28 vs LA Clippers
Sun 30 @ Minnesota
Mon 31 vs Washington
April
Wed 02 vs Minnesota
Fri 04 vs San Antonio
Tue 08 @ New Orleans
Thu 10 @ Dallas
Sat 12 vs Denver
Mon 14 vs Houston
Wed 16 @ San Antonio

Prognosis: The Jazz play four consecutive very winnable games and then finish with six straight games against Western playoff foes. If you give the Jazz those first four and then predict a split of the final six you've got them winning seven of ten and you'd have them finishing with the same record I do. Predicted final record: 54-28.





Suns 47-24, currently 2.5 games behind N.O.
Games remaining: 11 (5 home/6 road)
Games against Western playoff contenders: 6 (3 home/3 road)
Games against Eastern playoff contenders: 2 (0 home/2 road)

Fri 28 @ Philadelphia
Sat 29 @ New Jersey
Mon 31 vs Denver
April
Tue 01 @ Denver
Fri 04 vs Minnesota
Sun 06 vs Dallas
Tue 08 @ Memphis
Wed 09 @ San Antonio
Fri 11 @ Houston
Mon 14 vs Golden State
Wed 16 vs Portland

Prognosis: The Suns start this final stretch by having to play red-hot Philadelphia and then a New Jersey team fighting for its playoff life. Teams seem to want to use the Suns as a statement game as much as teams want to test their mettle against the Spurs these days. For some reason I can easily picture the Suns dropping both those games as easily as winning them. Then they get a rare back-to-back against the Nuggets-again they could win both or lose both. They have three gimmes in their last seven and will likely split their four final games against Western playoff teams. Steve Kerr has built this team to beat the Spurs...unfortunately no one told Steve that there will be six other teams in the Western playoffs that they might face first. Predicted final record: 54-28.



For the last two spots I'm going with Golden State at seven and Denver at eight. Golden State and Denver have both developed a recent habit of finishing the regular season strong. On the flipside, Dallas couldn't beat a Western playoff team with Dirk, and they've got six of their remaining ten games against Western playoff teams. I never thought I'd put a Dallas Mavericks team one year removed from the best record in basketball out of the playoff race but....

My predicted playoff seedings:

1. New Orleans 58-24
2. San Antonio 57-25
3. Los Angeles 56-26
4. Utah 54-28
5. Houston 56-26
6. Phoenix 54-28
7. Golden State 51-31
8. Denver 50-32
-----------------
9. Dallas 49-33

[timvp]

Nice analysis :tu

To win the West, the Spurs probably can only stand to lose one more game. While Pop has said he doesn't care about seeding, I still think whoever is the first seed has a big advantage over everyone else. With the West so competitive it might actually come down to homecourt advantage.

For the Spurs, there's no easy first round opponent out of those nine teams. On paper, one could argue the Rockets might be the best matchup for the Spurs ... but the Rockets might be playing with more chemistry than any team in the mix so they're also dangerous.

As you have it, the Warriors would be tough. They get hot and there's not much you can do. No matter what happens, this first round is going to be amazingly difficult. It'd have to be the first time in the Duncan era where the Spurs could conceivably lose in the first round.

[Obstructed_View]

No matter what happens, this first round is going to be amazingly difficult. It'd have to be the first time in the Duncan era where the Spurs could conceivably lose in the first round.
To add to that, last year helped to dispel any myth of invincibility once and for all. Combined with the small gap in the standings, all eight teams should be going in thinking they have a chance to win their first round series. I don't think that's ever happened before.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

If the Lakers were healthy I'd say the 1 seed would easily be theirs. Their schedule is almost a joke compared to the other Western contenders.


And what's up with giving the Hornets 4 back-to-backs in their last 12 games? Bizarre scheduling once you start comparing.



As for the Spurs, all the first round matchups are frightening. It's true.

[Tradition]

Nice analysis :tu

To win the West, the Spurs probably can only stand to lose one more game. While Pop has said he doesn't care about seeding, I still think whoever is the first seed has a big advantage over everyone else. With the West so competitive it might actually come down to homecourt advantage.



If you seriously need homecourt to win it all, you are already fucked. Great teams get it done no matter what. I dont give a fuck how hard the road is, if you are good enough to win it all then you will get the job done. A fucking court that says you are the home team and the noise of fans isnt going to cover up for execution, mental toughness, health, poise etc etc. Im sorry but saying "home court advantage" is why you lost is a fucking pussy ass excuse. It is either you werent good enough or your superstar/superstars were so hurt that there was no way they were going to be able to tough it out. Homecourt is a nice luxary to have but if that is what is going to decide your postseason, then get ready for summer vacation because your mentality clearly isnt at a championship level.

[Princess Pimp]

Spurs 57 wins??

LOL In your dreams!!!

I see them winning no more than 53 games and that's too much!

[anakha]

Spurs 57 wins??

LOL In your dreams!!!

I see them winning no more than 53 games and that's too much!

Care to wager on that?

....oh yeah, I forgot, you still owe CubanMustGo for the bet you guys made before. :lol

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Spurs 57 wins??

LOL In your dreams!!!

I see them winning no more than 53 games and that's too much!


53? That would mean they go 4-6 down the stretch. :lol I don't think so.

[hater]

the funniest thing is in the West, a team that gets 50 wins will be out of the playoffs, meanwhile in the East, the Knicks with a record or 20-51 are still in the playoffs race :lol

[Los Spurs]

the funniest thing is in the West, a team that gets 50 wins will be out of the playoffs, meanwhile in the East, the Knicks with a record or 20-51 are still in the playoffs race :lol

I can't believe the Knicks still exist...

[honestfool84]

It is either you werent good enough or your superstar/superstars were so hurt that there was no way they were going to be able to tough it out. .



laker fans already have their excuses ready for when they lose..

[honestfool84]

There schedule is almost a joke compared to the other Western contenders.



could this be part of the NBA's master plan?

[Galileo]

The Spurs should be able to snag a # 2 seed.

Houston can't keep up their pace without Yao. The Lakers have people missing and Kobe is one T away from suspension.

[DAF86]

could this be part of the NBA's master plan?

yes, and i'm not kidding

[FromWayDowntown]

I honestly think the most important game for the Spurs the rest of the way might be Sunday's game. If the Spurs win on Sunday, they clinch the tiebreaker over the Rockets and, barring injuries, should have a great chance to get a top 3 seed by finishing either 1st or 2nd in the division. If the Spurs lose on Sunday, they can get a top 4 seed only if Houston and New Orleans both drop more games to finish than the Spurs do -- and in the Hornets' case, it would have to be 4 more games than the Spurs drop the rest of the way.

Obviously, the other games are important, with the home date with Phoenix and the road game at LA being particularly big games. But if the Spurs don't beat the Rockets on Sunday, it might just be all about ensuring that they stay in the 5th spot and in front of the Jazz in the loss column.

[Galileo]

Spurs 57 wins??

LOL In your dreams!!!

I see them winning no more than 53 games and that's too much!

only twice in the Tim Duncan era, have the Spurs lost over 25 games.

In Duncan's rookie year they lost 26 games. In Duncan's third year they lost 29 games.

So history is not on your side.

[hater]

wow I just checked Dallas, Denver and Golden State remaining schedule and they are tough! GS especially is brutal.

I think Spurs will be at #2. But I have no idea who we'll be playing. My guess is Denver, ONCE AGAIN :bang

[Obstructed_View]

yes, and i'm not kidding
I'd rather have a tough stretch of games to get the Spurs ready for the postseason, particularly in a season where they haven't been playing consistent basketball.

[Princess Pimp]

wow I just checked Dallas, Denver and Golden State remaining schedule and they are tough! GS especially is brutal.

I think Spurs will be at #2. But I have no idea who we'll be playing. My guess is Denver, ONCE AGAIN :bang

Afraid of the Nuggets? LOL

[batboy]

Boy, the Jazz have one shitty schedule.

Which of course means nothing in the NW division with their guaranteed 4 seed.

[mystargtr34]

If the Mavs, as expected dont make the playoffs.... can anyone else see Denver ending up with a better record than Utah.... thus Denver going to the 4 seed and Jazz probably 7 or 8... the Jazz have a tough tough run home.

[Obstructed_View]

If the Mavs, as expected dont make the playoffs.... can anyone else see Denver ending up with a better record than Utah.... thus Denver going to the 4 seed and Jazz probably 7 or 8... the Jazz have a tough tough run home.
What an insanely tough conference. Whoever wins the title this year has serious bragging rights.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

Nuggets have to survive the next 3 games and go at least 2-1 to keep within 3-4 games of Utah. The Jazz finish the season with tough games, including one more against the Nuggets.

I dont see them losing the NW coz the Jazz have it easy for the next few games and the Nuggets have it tough.

Im guessing the Nuggets will sneak into the playoffs and lose in 5 again :lol

[Princess Pimp]

Nuggets have to survive the next 3 games and go at least 2-1 to keep within 3-4 games of Utah. The Jazz finish the season with tough games, including one more against the Nuggets.

I dont see them losing the NW coz the Jazz have it easy for the next few games and the Nuggets have it tough.

Im guessing the Nuggets will sneak into the playoffs and lose in 5 again :lol
Fairwhether fan.!

[anakha]

Fairwhether fan.!

Says the former Rocket and Cavalier fan. :lol

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

LA and Phoenix might end up switching places from my projected finish but otherwise I think the rest is right on track.

[word]

Afraid of the Nuggets? LOL

Tired of the Nuggets. I want another first round team.

[41times]

If the Mavs, as expected dont make the playoffs.... can anyone else see Denver ending up with a better record than Utah.... thus Denver going to the 4 seed and Jazz probably 7 or 8... the Jazz have a tough tough run home.

Mavs have the Tie Breaker over Golden St. Mavs will be in the 8th spot likely.

Mavs vs. Spurs woooo hooo!