sandman
04-02-2008, 09:57 AM
1. Rockets (24-5) - This is more a case of the Rockets overachieving than of sustained excellence. Yes, the 22-game win streak was amazing - and painful being a Spurs fan living in Houston - but since the streak stopped, they are a pedestrian 3-5. Their record for the season discounting the streak is only 27-25. Considering how they have gone back to their mediocre ways with TMac leading the retreat, the First Round Curse seems to be looming large again.
2. Spurs (22-7) - Currently, the Spurs are enjoying their best blend of offense and defense of the year and seemingly are getting into playoff mode. The major concern for the Spurs is that their SPAM record is very streaky: win 11, lose 6 out of 7, win 8. It's as if Finley's shooting karma has possesed the won/loss record. At this point, with NO holding all the tie-breakers, the streaky nature of the record will need hold true through the end of the regular season.
3. Lakers (22-8) - Obviously Gasol has been a big success for the team, and Kobe is playing at MVP level, although I highly doubt this year the voters will finally decide to recognize him. The greatest concern for the Lakers is the rash of injuries that are preventing the team from getting into playoff mode. With the Suns playing better, they are fighting to keep a Top 3 seed and may revert back to the instictive Kobe-ball playing style to survive the end of the regular season. In the last 5 games, their only two wins have been in OT, so unless Gasol's expected return provides an instant boost, they may limp into the playoffs.
4. Jazz (21-8) - Overall, the Jazz have been particularly steady since the break. The biggest issue this team faces is the ability to win on the road. Of the top 6 West teams, Utah is the only team without a winning road record at 16-22. The only reasons that Utah stays in the Top 4 seeding is their league-best 33-4 home record, and the fact that Denver can't seem to put it together for a long enough streak to overtake them. As it is, the Nuggets are only three games back, which is not enough of a cushion for the Jazz to feel comfortable. Expect that they are going on the road as the 4th seed in the first round or being overtaken by the Nuggets in the final few days, because 6 of their remaining 7 games are against West playoff teams (including one against Denver), going on the road against NO, DAL and SA.
5. Hornets (19-9) - At 32-13 going into February, they were at the top of the West and have survived all of the hot streaks from several other West contenders. They've been steady, have a fairly balanced team, and own the tie breakers. Right now NO is in the driver's seat for seedings and is performing at playoff level caliber. Sure, they have a ton of road games left, but only two of them are against playoff caliber teams. Lack of playoff experience may come into play if Dallas falls to the #8 seed, but meeting Denver, GS or Houston in the first round would be advantageous for the Hornets.
6. Suns (17-11) - Most intriguing team so far. 17-11 since the ASG and 13-9 since the Shaq trade. Amare has become a stats stud. Shaq remembered how to rebound. Some argued that once Shaq was integrated, they would really take off, and they did with a hot 7-game win streak. But they are 3-3 in their last 6 games, and only 6-9 against playoff teams since Shaq came on board. Those 9 losses have come equally at home and on the road, whereas 5 of the 6 wins have come at come. In other words, playing from the bottom of the bracket, there should be concern about being able to win on the road against good teams.
Overall, as a Spurs fan, I would least like to face the Hornets at any point in the playoffs, as they seem to be the most balanced team. I absolutely want to avoid the Mavs in the first round because Dirk will be coming back to this team and they are a 3/5 seed, not a 7 seed. The Suns and the Lakers are a tie for me, not because I don't think we could not match up well, but rather the uncertainty of which team will show up. Both can be positively dominating or puzzlingly ineffective. Jazz/Rockets/Nugs play a physical game that we have proven we can match and overcome in the playoffs, and the Warriors simply will not be able to play the level of defense needed to sustain the lulls in their offensive bursts.
2. Spurs (22-7) - Currently, the Spurs are enjoying their best blend of offense and defense of the year and seemingly are getting into playoff mode. The major concern for the Spurs is that their SPAM record is very streaky: win 11, lose 6 out of 7, win 8. It's as if Finley's shooting karma has possesed the won/loss record. At this point, with NO holding all the tie-breakers, the streaky nature of the record will need hold true through the end of the regular season.
3. Lakers (22-8) - Obviously Gasol has been a big success for the team, and Kobe is playing at MVP level, although I highly doubt this year the voters will finally decide to recognize him. The greatest concern for the Lakers is the rash of injuries that are preventing the team from getting into playoff mode. With the Suns playing better, they are fighting to keep a Top 3 seed and may revert back to the instictive Kobe-ball playing style to survive the end of the regular season. In the last 5 games, their only two wins have been in OT, so unless Gasol's expected return provides an instant boost, they may limp into the playoffs.
4. Jazz (21-8) - Overall, the Jazz have been particularly steady since the break. The biggest issue this team faces is the ability to win on the road. Of the top 6 West teams, Utah is the only team without a winning road record at 16-22. The only reasons that Utah stays in the Top 4 seeding is their league-best 33-4 home record, and the fact that Denver can't seem to put it together for a long enough streak to overtake them. As it is, the Nuggets are only three games back, which is not enough of a cushion for the Jazz to feel comfortable. Expect that they are going on the road as the 4th seed in the first round or being overtaken by the Nuggets in the final few days, because 6 of their remaining 7 games are against West playoff teams (including one against Denver), going on the road against NO, DAL and SA.
5. Hornets (19-9) - At 32-13 going into February, they were at the top of the West and have survived all of the hot streaks from several other West contenders. They've been steady, have a fairly balanced team, and own the tie breakers. Right now NO is in the driver's seat for seedings and is performing at playoff level caliber. Sure, they have a ton of road games left, but only two of them are against playoff caliber teams. Lack of playoff experience may come into play if Dallas falls to the #8 seed, but meeting Denver, GS or Houston in the first round would be advantageous for the Hornets.
6. Suns (17-11) - Most intriguing team so far. 17-11 since the ASG and 13-9 since the Shaq trade. Amare has become a stats stud. Shaq remembered how to rebound. Some argued that once Shaq was integrated, they would really take off, and they did with a hot 7-game win streak. But they are 3-3 in their last 6 games, and only 6-9 against playoff teams since Shaq came on board. Those 9 losses have come equally at home and on the road, whereas 5 of the 6 wins have come at come. In other words, playing from the bottom of the bracket, there should be concern about being able to win on the road against good teams.
Overall, as a Spurs fan, I would least like to face the Hornets at any point in the playoffs, as they seem to be the most balanced team. I absolutely want to avoid the Mavs in the first round because Dirk will be coming back to this team and they are a 3/5 seed, not a 7 seed. The Suns and the Lakers are a tie for me, not because I don't think we could not match up well, but rather the uncertainty of which team will show up. Both can be positively dominating or puzzlingly ineffective. Jazz/Rockets/Nugs play a physical game that we have proven we can match and overcome in the playoffs, and the Warriors simply will not be able to play the level of defense needed to sustain the lulls in their offensive bursts.