Xylus
04-03-2008, 02:08 PM
Link (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=WestForecast-080403&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dWestForecast-080403%26campaign%3drss%26source%3dNBAHeadlines)
FORECASTING THE WEST: HOW WILL THE TOP TEAMS FINISH?
BY JOHN HOLLINGER
Much has been written about the incredibly compelling race in the Western Conference this season and the upcoming playoffs. Truly, this is the best playoff race the league has ever seen. Consider the fact that with two weeks to go in the season, not one Western team has even clinched a playoff berth.
Only three games separate the top six teams, and the first-place team is only 7½ games from being out of the playoffs entirely. On top of that, three teams that could win 50 games each are locked in a tight battle for the final two playoff berths.
So with the entire conference in the unusual situation of having two weeks worth of extremely meaningful games, it's time to break down where the Western playoff contenders stand, check out some of the numbers behind their performance, and look in the crystal ball at where everyone might end up.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/nor.gif
New Orleans Hornets
Glass half-full: We had no crowd and no bench for half the season; now we have both.
Glass half-empty: Take away our pick-and-roll and we're screwed.
Key factoids you might not know: You might think that since the Hornets have the best point guard in the league in Chris Paul that they'd be an up-tempo outfit, but they're really not. Though they'll run when the opportunity presents itself, the Hornets are among the league's most deliberate teams when they get in the half-court. As a result, they play at the league's fourth-slowest pace.
Instead, here's a different secret to their success: They don't foul. You may not have that image of the Hornets since they have a tough-guy coach in Byron Scott and fierce frontcourt players like Tyson Chandler and David West, but this is the hardest team in the league to get to the line against.
New Orleans permits only .241 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and the impact is enormous -- relative to the league average, this saves the Hornets about four points per game. Because of this, they're No. 6 in defensive efficiency, even though they're below the league average in both field-goal defense and forcing turnovers.
Remaining schedule: Pretty soft now that they've completed a wildly successful six-game Eastern road trip, going 5-1 with the only loss coming at Boston. Roadies against the Lakers and Mavs remain, as well as home games against Utah and Golden State, but the other five games are against losing teams.
Crystal ball says: No. 1 seed, here we come. The Hornets own the tiebreaker with San Antonio, so as long as they can go 5-3 over the final eight games and get to 57 wins, they should finish at least tied for the best record in the West and earn the top seed. The Playoff Odds of them doing this is 62.1 percent, so they're in pretty good shape. Not that it's any great reward -- they'd likely have to play the Mavs or Nuggets in the opening round.
San Antonio could push the Hornets down to No. 2, and the other team to watch is the Lakers. They still play the Hornets and will own the tiebreaker with a win.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/sas.gif
San Antonio Spurs
Glass half-full: Relax, we do this every year.
Glass half-empty: This sure seemed easier when everybody wasn't 30-something.
Key factoids you might not know: San Antonio began its late surge even later than usual, not really turning things around for good until late March. But now the Spurs have won eight in a row and seem likely to be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the West.
As usual, the defense is the key. The Spurs have been in the middle of the pack offensively all season, but rank third in defensive efficiency. They're the league's best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 76.9 percent of opponents' misses, and as usual they defend the 3-point line with ferocity. San Antonio gives up the fourth-fewest attempts -- only 19.5 percent of opponents' shots are 3s -- and are second only to Boston in 3-point defense at 33.8 percent.
But the reason San Antonio is so close to the rest of the Western pack rather than head and shoulders above is that several key role players have begun declining. Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn and especially Robert Horry have all seen their output diminish due to age, injury or both, and as a result, on too many nights Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are left to carry the offense entirely. Barry's calf problem in particular has been a setback, because his still-deadly shot is an incredible deterrent to help defenders.
Remaining schedule: It's difficult. Road games against Utah, Portland and the Lakers are the most daunting part, but the home games against Utah and Phoenix aren't gimmies either. Only one of the seven games (home vs. Seattle) shapes up as an automatic win. The game against the Lakers will also determine who gets the tiebreaker; as a result it may end up deciding which team is the No. 2 seed and which is No. 3.
Crystal ball says: Chances are that the Spurs will win either four or five of these next seven games, which would probably be enough to get the No. 2 seed but not enough to win the division. To leapfrog New Orleans to No. 1, the Spurs probably would need to win six, unless the Hornets have an unexpected collapse down the stretch. The bigger question is probably whether the Spurs can hold off the Lakers for No. 2 -- if they'd even want to. The No. 3 seed, and a likely date with Houston, seems much more advantageous.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/lal.gif
Los Angeles Lakers
Glass half-full: Once our injured guys come back we have more talent than anyone in the league.
Glass half-empty: Please don't hit Kobe's pinkie. Pretty please.
Key factoids you might not know: Here's one that might shock you. The Lakers employ one of the game's more renowned floppers in Derek Fisher, whose thespian skills most recently came into play on a controversial game-ending offensive foul against Golden State's Monta Ellis that could end up costing the Warriors a playoff spot.
But when it comes to forcing dead-ball turnovers (everything except steals), did you know the Lakers are last in the league? Isn't that amazing? You'd think Fisher's presence alone would make that impossible, but apparently not. Only 6.35 percent of L.A. opponents' possessions end in a turnover that isn't a steal; the league average is 7.21 percent.
Offensively, the Lakers are a rarity: A team that both gets to the line a lot and attempts a lot of 3s. Usually this is an either/or thing, but not in L.A.'s case. Bryant leads the way, averaging nine free-throw attempts, but Gasol, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf and Andrew Bynum all have high free-throw rates. And everybody else lets it rip from deep, most notably Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Vladimir Radmanovic and Jordan Farmar. And, of course, Bryant.
As a result, L.A. ranks ninth in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt and seventh in 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt (only Orlando can trump L.A. in these two categories). Since they also convert 37.5 percent of those 3s, it's a big reason the Lakers rank third in offensive efficiency.
Remaining schedule: The Lakers have the kindest slate of any Western Conference contender. Only three tough opponents remain -- San Antonio, Dallas and New Orleans -- and all three games are at home. Of course, the Lakers just lost at home to Charlotte and Memphis, so they probably shouldn't be chalking up future wins just yet.
Crystal ball says: This is the hardest team in the league to figure. How long will Gasol need to get back to full strength? How much will Fisher be limited by his foot problems? What if Kobe gets hit on the pinkie? And when's Bynum coming back?
L.A. is only 7-6 in its past 13 games, and of those the Lakers really played well only once, in an admittedly impressive road win at Utah. The guess is that with Gasol back they regain some of their old mojo and get to at least 55 wins, which should be good enough for a division title and a No. 3 seed, given that they own the tiebreaker against Phoenix. That distinction between No. 3 and No. 5 will be enormous, since it's likely the difference between getting Utah or Houston in the first round.
The Lakers still have a shot at moving up, because they still play both San Antonio and New Orleans and would own both tiebreakers with victories. They'll probably need to run the table or go 6-1 at worst, but the top seed remains possible. The Playoff Odds give them a 12.8 percent shot of pulling it off.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/uth.gif
Utah Jazz
Glass half-full: Three of our starters have been All-Stars -- and the fourth one is Deron Williams.
Glass half-empty: We don't have to play any road games in the playoffs … do we?
Key factoids you might not know: The Jazz may be the best team in the West, even with their deplorable road record, mediocre defense and questionable outside shooting. Utah is only sixth in terms of winning percentage, but is first in the West in scoring margin at 6.9 points per game, which is a better indicator of future success. Despite some horrid road losses, overall they've played very well of late, taking over the top spot in the league in offensive efficiency and moving up to No. 2 in the Hollinger Power Rankings.
Longtime Utah watchers will take comfort in the fact that they're still the league's resident mad hackers, with opponents averaging a league-best .394 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt. This fact alone makes it impossible for the Jazz to have a better than average defense, but at least there's a reward for all those reach-ins: Utah has the league's No. 1 steal rate, pilfering the ball on 9.2 percent of opponents' possessions.
Remaining schedule: It's tough. The Jazz play San Antonio twice, as well as Denver, Houston, Dallas and New Orleans, and they still need to snag a couple of more wins to secure the Northwest Division title.
Crystal ball says: With three home games and three road games left, it's obvious, right? The Jazz go 3-3 and finish at 53-29, holding off Denver for the division but possibly leaving themselves the challenge of winning three playoff series on the road in order to win the conference.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/pho.gif
Phoenix Suns
Glass half-full: We've won 10 out of 13, and the three losses were at Detroit, at Boston and at Denver.
Glass half-empty: We're still only 13-9 with Shaquille O'Neal.
Key factoids you might not know: I slammed Suns president Steve Kerr for trading for Shaq; based on the contents of my inbox, it appears one or two Suns fans noticed this. I still have some misgivings about the deal, especially once you get into next year and the year after, but it's hard not to notice how well the Suns are rolling right now.
The key has not been the play of Shaq, who continues to have an insanely high turnover rate. (Seriously, how do you make three turnovers a game if you're taking only eight shots?) Rather, it's been his apparent impact on Amare Stoudemire. The Suns made this deal in part to move Stoudemire out of the center spot, so you have to give them credit for the results.
In 22 games at power forward, Stoudemire has been the best player in the league. No, really, he's been that good. He has averaged 29.4 points on 58.2 percent shooting and averaged nearly 11 free-throw attempts.
But the number that maybe is most important is 36.7. That's how many minutes per game he's played with Shaq, after averaging only 33.0 before the trade because he was in foul trouble too often. Stoudemire's foul rate is still fairly high, but it has declined just enough that he's able to play his regular minutes.
A pessimist would note the Suns have shot unbelievably well on 3s during the recent hot streak, and that's unlikely to hold up over an extended period. But if Stoudemire keeps playing this freakishly well it's not going to matter too much, because right now the difference between New Stoudemire and Old Stoudemire more than offsets the difference between Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal. I'd have never thought that possible, but it's happening.
Remaining schedule: It could be worse. Road games against San Antonio and Houston won't be fun, but they have two gimmies (home vs. Minnesota, at Memphis), and they should be able to handle home games against Dallas and Golden State.
Crystal ball says: The way they're playing they might grab six of the final seven and steal the division crown from L.A. The unfortunate thing is they probably have to win six of the seven, because the Lakers own the tiebreaker. So the smart money remains on the Suns ending up with the No. 5 seed and a brutal first-round pairing against Utah.
It's possible they could move up to No. 3 even if they don't win the division, because the Suns still play San Antonio and will own the tiebreak with a victory. But again, this scenario pretty much depends on them winning at least six of their last seven.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/hou.gif
Houston Rockets
Glass half-full: We're 34-9 since New Year's Day and 13-5 since losing Yao Ming.
Glass half-empty: We never won a playoff series even with Yao; now we're supposed to do it without him?
Key factoids you might not know: It seems obvious that the Rockets are worse off without Yao Ming … yet trying to find evidence for this is amazingly difficult. At the time Yao went out, the Rockets were 17th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency; today they're 16th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency.
In fact, the Rockets are 1.2 points per 48 minutes worse with Yao on the court this season. Of course, that's partly because he missed out on all those double-digit victories at the tail end of the win streak.
Nonetheless, late cracks have begun to show. The Rockets are 3-5 since their epic 22-game winning streak ended, with three of the losses by 20 or more. Tracy McGrady is the only Rocket who can reliably create a shot, and the strain is becoming apparent. His shot attempts went from 18.9 a game to 21.7 in a Yao-less March, and his shooting percentage went from 43.2 percent to 40.9 percent. He's not making 3s anymore either, because all his shots out there are off-the-dribble, under-duress tries rather than kick-outs from Yao -- he made just 23.4 percent in March.
Remaining schedule: Houston's schedule is extremely favorable, which could leave the Rockets in the hunt for the division crown if they catch a few breaks. They have two games apiece against the Sonics and Clippers, although roadies against the Nuggets and Jazz will be difficult.
Crystal ball says: Houston is in a tough spot, because if it doesn't beat either San Antonio or New Orleans in the Southwest Division, it means the Rockets probably draw either the Jazz or the Lakers in Round 1. So much for ending T-Mac's first-round streak.
Even with the soft schedule, Houston's most likely outcome is 54 or 55 wins, which is probably going to be one or two short of what they need to avoid the Lakers and Jazz in Round 1. Look for them to end up as the No. 6 seed, though if they beat Phoenix on April 11, they could improve to No. 5.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/den.gif
Denver Nuggets
Glass half-full: Nobody else has two big-time scorers like Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.
Glass half-empty: Nobody else's games look more ragged. Is this the NBA or the Rucker League?
Key factoids you might not know: Denver has the league's best free-throw "defense." Its opponents have made only 72.8 percent from the line this season. While some might attribute this to the Nuggets' speedy pace (and high altitude) tiring out opponents or being especially clever in choosing whom to foul, the bottom line is that this is almost certainly just plain old dumb luck.
And it's a pretty friendly piece of luck at that. Relative to the league, it's earned the Nuggets about 0.7 points per game, meaning it's been worth nearly two wins. In a playoff race which may be decided by one game, that's enormous. So basically, the reason Denver is probably headed to the playoffs instead of the lottery is the fact that its opponents can't make a free throw. What a country.
Remaining schedule: A four-game road trip with stops in Golden State and Utah won't be fun, but of their final seven games, five look like wins. Obviously the April 10 game at Golden State is huge: win that and they're pretty much a lock for the playoffs.
Crystal ball says: With tiebreakers over both Dallas and Golden State and the most favorable schedule of the three, it's going to take a real effort for Denver to stay home for the postseason, especially since the Nuggets are playing their best ball of the season.
Peg them for 51 wins and the No. 7 seed, and mark them down as a tough out in the first round. Even if they lose to Golden State next week, the schedules and tiebreakers combine to make it tough for Denver to miss.
I should also mention that the Nuggets retain a chance to beat out Utah for the Northwest Division and earn the No. 4 seed. Denver would have to win their upcoming meeting in Salt Lake City, which would give the Nuggets the tiebreaker, and could afford to lose one game at most between now and the end of the season. The Playoff Odds tool gives them a 10 percent shot of pulling it off.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/dal.gif
Dallas Mavericks
Glass half-full: Dirk's back and now all will be good.
Glass half-empty: Now we can disappoint everybody in the playoffs again.
Key factoids you might not know: The Mavs' 1-10 record against winning teams since acquiring Jason Kidd has been well-documented. But here's the thing: They actually played really well in that stretch, and only a flukish series of close losses prevented their record from being much better.
For starters, three of the losses were without Dirk -- two due to injury and one due to suspension -- so let's set those aside.
Now check out the other seven losses. They lost by 11 at New Orleans, three at San Antonio, four in OT against the Lakers, by six at Utah, two to the Lakers, four to Boston and seven to San Antonio. Combined, they lost seven games by a total of 37 points.
Those were Dallas' only defeats in that stretch. Meanwhile, the games against losing teams were all runaways: by 29, 25, 25, 20, 19, 16, 15, 13, 9, 8 and 7. No, hammering sub-.500 teams doesn't impress people nearly as much, but it's just as good a sign of a team's quality. In 11 games against losing teams, Dallas crushed pretty much every one.
So overall, they're 12-10 since trading for Kidd. But that's 12-7 when Dirk plays -- with an average scoring margin of plus-9.2 per game, which would easily be the best in the West. Everyone has focused on a series of consecutive close losses against good teams, which resulted more from bad luck than bad basketball, and ignored the fact that in all the other games Dallas completely outmatched its opponents.
What I'm saying, in a roundabout way, is that this team is being vastly underestimated at the moment. Yes, there are some issues here, and no, I'm still not particularly fond of the Kidd trade overall. But all the evidence since the deal says this team can hang with the West's elite, and now that they hammered Golden State last night it seems they'll get a chance to show it.
Remaining schedule: Dallas has the most murderous remaining schedule of any Western contender, with a home-and-home against Seattle providing the lone breaks. Otherwise it's on the road against Portland, Phoenix and the Lakers, and home dates against Utah and New Orleans.
Crystal ball says: Obviously, it all comes down to Dirk Nowitzki's ankle. Let's say this: I'm stunned he was able to come back from a high ankle sprain in less than two weeks and do anything, let alone lead a rout of Golden State. Clearly, he is an absolute freak of nature. This is normally a four-week injury, and often it lingers beyond that point.
By the way, how badly do you think the Mavs were chuckling to themselves last night as they watched Golden State take the floor and behold Nowitzki playing -- after a story leaked out earlier in the day saying he wasn't in the game plan. I have visions of Mark Cuban laughing diabolically throughout the game while stabbing a Don Nelson voodoo doll.
At any rate, because of the schedule they might have trouble doing better than 4-3 the rest of the way, even if Nowitzki plays. It would help if New Orleans is locked into their spot on the last day of the season, which is a possibility, because then the Hornets would likely play their scrubs and allow Dallas to roll.
But fortunately for Dallas, they are up two games on Golden State and own the tiebreaker, so it would take a collapse to keep them out of the playoffs now. Look for them to end up tied with Denver at 51 wins and get the No. 8 seed -- where they can try to turn the tables on what happened a year ago.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/gsw.gif
Golden State Warriors
Glass half-full: Nobody can catch lightning in a bottle like us.
Glass half-empty: Nobody can mail in games like us.
Key factoids you might not know: You might think this team is all about reckless abandon, but actually they have the second-lowest turnover ratio in the league, making miscues on just 12.9 percent of their possessions. That's pretty amazing given that they play the league's second-fastest pace, and it's a tribute to the skills of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson to play so quickly without making errors.
Now if they could just be a little smarter with their shots. Golden State is second in the league in 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt: 29.8 percent of their shots are 3s. But they convert them at a rate well below the league average: 35.1 percent.
Golden State also has hurt itself with some self-inflicted damage on the defensive end. The Warriors are dead last in defensive rebound percentage, pulling down only 69.8 percent of opponents' missed shots, which is yet one more reason it should drive Warriors fans crazy that their best defensive rebounder, Andris Biedrins, has played more than 30 minutes in a game exactly once since March 7. On Tuesday he played just 16, even though he was the only Warrior with a positive plus/minus in a blowout loss to the Spurs.
Remaining schedule: Probable losses remain in road games against New Orleans and Phoenix, but the others look very winnable. The key game is April 10 at home against Denver, but with Memphis, Sacramento, Seattle and the Clippers left, a 4-4 finish seems the worst-case scenario.
Crystal ball says: They pretty much screwed themselves with last night's face-plant in Dallas, and now might need to run the table to get to the postseason. Golden State has to beat Denver, certainly, but even that might not be enough because the rest of the Nuggets' schedule is easier and Denver wins the tiebreaker.
I'm projecting both Dallas and Denver to finish with 51 wins, which means Golden State needs to win 52 to get in ahead of them, requiring a 7-0 finish. Based on that schedule, it's not real likely, and the Playoff Odds tool agrees: Last night's loss dropped their odds to 31.0 percent, and it seems to me that's still overstating things.
FORECASTING THE WEST: HOW WILL THE TOP TEAMS FINISH?
BY JOHN HOLLINGER
Much has been written about the incredibly compelling race in the Western Conference this season and the upcoming playoffs. Truly, this is the best playoff race the league has ever seen. Consider the fact that with two weeks to go in the season, not one Western team has even clinched a playoff berth.
Only three games separate the top six teams, and the first-place team is only 7½ games from being out of the playoffs entirely. On top of that, three teams that could win 50 games each are locked in a tight battle for the final two playoff berths.
So with the entire conference in the unusual situation of having two weeks worth of extremely meaningful games, it's time to break down where the Western playoff contenders stand, check out some of the numbers behind their performance, and look in the crystal ball at where everyone might end up.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/nor.gif
New Orleans Hornets
Glass half-full: We had no crowd and no bench for half the season; now we have both.
Glass half-empty: Take away our pick-and-roll and we're screwed.
Key factoids you might not know: You might think that since the Hornets have the best point guard in the league in Chris Paul that they'd be an up-tempo outfit, but they're really not. Though they'll run when the opportunity presents itself, the Hornets are among the league's most deliberate teams when they get in the half-court. As a result, they play at the league's fourth-slowest pace.
Instead, here's a different secret to their success: They don't foul. You may not have that image of the Hornets since they have a tough-guy coach in Byron Scott and fierce frontcourt players like Tyson Chandler and David West, but this is the hardest team in the league to get to the line against.
New Orleans permits only .241 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and the impact is enormous -- relative to the league average, this saves the Hornets about four points per game. Because of this, they're No. 6 in defensive efficiency, even though they're below the league average in both field-goal defense and forcing turnovers.
Remaining schedule: Pretty soft now that they've completed a wildly successful six-game Eastern road trip, going 5-1 with the only loss coming at Boston. Roadies against the Lakers and Mavs remain, as well as home games against Utah and Golden State, but the other five games are against losing teams.
Crystal ball says: No. 1 seed, here we come. The Hornets own the tiebreaker with San Antonio, so as long as they can go 5-3 over the final eight games and get to 57 wins, they should finish at least tied for the best record in the West and earn the top seed. The Playoff Odds of them doing this is 62.1 percent, so they're in pretty good shape. Not that it's any great reward -- they'd likely have to play the Mavs or Nuggets in the opening round.
San Antonio could push the Hornets down to No. 2, and the other team to watch is the Lakers. They still play the Hornets and will own the tiebreaker with a win.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/sas.gif
San Antonio Spurs
Glass half-full: Relax, we do this every year.
Glass half-empty: This sure seemed easier when everybody wasn't 30-something.
Key factoids you might not know: San Antonio began its late surge even later than usual, not really turning things around for good until late March. But now the Spurs have won eight in a row and seem likely to be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the West.
As usual, the defense is the key. The Spurs have been in the middle of the pack offensively all season, but rank third in defensive efficiency. They're the league's best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 76.9 percent of opponents' misses, and as usual they defend the 3-point line with ferocity. San Antonio gives up the fourth-fewest attempts -- only 19.5 percent of opponents' shots are 3s -- and are second only to Boston in 3-point defense at 33.8 percent.
But the reason San Antonio is so close to the rest of the Western pack rather than head and shoulders above is that several key role players have begun declining. Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn and especially Robert Horry have all seen their output diminish due to age, injury or both, and as a result, on too many nights Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are left to carry the offense entirely. Barry's calf problem in particular has been a setback, because his still-deadly shot is an incredible deterrent to help defenders.
Remaining schedule: It's difficult. Road games against Utah, Portland and the Lakers are the most daunting part, but the home games against Utah and Phoenix aren't gimmies either. Only one of the seven games (home vs. Seattle) shapes up as an automatic win. The game against the Lakers will also determine who gets the tiebreaker; as a result it may end up deciding which team is the No. 2 seed and which is No. 3.
Crystal ball says: Chances are that the Spurs will win either four or five of these next seven games, which would probably be enough to get the No. 2 seed but not enough to win the division. To leapfrog New Orleans to No. 1, the Spurs probably would need to win six, unless the Hornets have an unexpected collapse down the stretch. The bigger question is probably whether the Spurs can hold off the Lakers for No. 2 -- if they'd even want to. The No. 3 seed, and a likely date with Houston, seems much more advantageous.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/lal.gif
Los Angeles Lakers
Glass half-full: Once our injured guys come back we have more talent than anyone in the league.
Glass half-empty: Please don't hit Kobe's pinkie. Pretty please.
Key factoids you might not know: Here's one that might shock you. The Lakers employ one of the game's more renowned floppers in Derek Fisher, whose thespian skills most recently came into play on a controversial game-ending offensive foul against Golden State's Monta Ellis that could end up costing the Warriors a playoff spot.
But when it comes to forcing dead-ball turnovers (everything except steals), did you know the Lakers are last in the league? Isn't that amazing? You'd think Fisher's presence alone would make that impossible, but apparently not. Only 6.35 percent of L.A. opponents' possessions end in a turnover that isn't a steal; the league average is 7.21 percent.
Offensively, the Lakers are a rarity: A team that both gets to the line a lot and attempts a lot of 3s. Usually this is an either/or thing, but not in L.A.'s case. Bryant leads the way, averaging nine free-throw attempts, but Gasol, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf and Andrew Bynum all have high free-throw rates. And everybody else lets it rip from deep, most notably Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Vladimir Radmanovic and Jordan Farmar. And, of course, Bryant.
As a result, L.A. ranks ninth in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt and seventh in 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt (only Orlando can trump L.A. in these two categories). Since they also convert 37.5 percent of those 3s, it's a big reason the Lakers rank third in offensive efficiency.
Remaining schedule: The Lakers have the kindest slate of any Western Conference contender. Only three tough opponents remain -- San Antonio, Dallas and New Orleans -- and all three games are at home. Of course, the Lakers just lost at home to Charlotte and Memphis, so they probably shouldn't be chalking up future wins just yet.
Crystal ball says: This is the hardest team in the league to figure. How long will Gasol need to get back to full strength? How much will Fisher be limited by his foot problems? What if Kobe gets hit on the pinkie? And when's Bynum coming back?
L.A. is only 7-6 in its past 13 games, and of those the Lakers really played well only once, in an admittedly impressive road win at Utah. The guess is that with Gasol back they regain some of their old mojo and get to at least 55 wins, which should be good enough for a division title and a No. 3 seed, given that they own the tiebreaker against Phoenix. That distinction between No. 3 and No. 5 will be enormous, since it's likely the difference between getting Utah or Houston in the first round.
The Lakers still have a shot at moving up, because they still play both San Antonio and New Orleans and would own both tiebreakers with victories. They'll probably need to run the table or go 6-1 at worst, but the top seed remains possible. The Playoff Odds give them a 12.8 percent shot of pulling it off.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/uth.gif
Utah Jazz
Glass half-full: Three of our starters have been All-Stars -- and the fourth one is Deron Williams.
Glass half-empty: We don't have to play any road games in the playoffs … do we?
Key factoids you might not know: The Jazz may be the best team in the West, even with their deplorable road record, mediocre defense and questionable outside shooting. Utah is only sixth in terms of winning percentage, but is first in the West in scoring margin at 6.9 points per game, which is a better indicator of future success. Despite some horrid road losses, overall they've played very well of late, taking over the top spot in the league in offensive efficiency and moving up to No. 2 in the Hollinger Power Rankings.
Longtime Utah watchers will take comfort in the fact that they're still the league's resident mad hackers, with opponents averaging a league-best .394 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt. This fact alone makes it impossible for the Jazz to have a better than average defense, but at least there's a reward for all those reach-ins: Utah has the league's No. 1 steal rate, pilfering the ball on 9.2 percent of opponents' possessions.
Remaining schedule: It's tough. The Jazz play San Antonio twice, as well as Denver, Houston, Dallas and New Orleans, and they still need to snag a couple of more wins to secure the Northwest Division title.
Crystal ball says: With three home games and three road games left, it's obvious, right? The Jazz go 3-3 and finish at 53-29, holding off Denver for the division but possibly leaving themselves the challenge of winning three playoff series on the road in order to win the conference.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/pho.gif
Phoenix Suns
Glass half-full: We've won 10 out of 13, and the three losses were at Detroit, at Boston and at Denver.
Glass half-empty: We're still only 13-9 with Shaquille O'Neal.
Key factoids you might not know: I slammed Suns president Steve Kerr for trading for Shaq; based on the contents of my inbox, it appears one or two Suns fans noticed this. I still have some misgivings about the deal, especially once you get into next year and the year after, but it's hard not to notice how well the Suns are rolling right now.
The key has not been the play of Shaq, who continues to have an insanely high turnover rate. (Seriously, how do you make three turnovers a game if you're taking only eight shots?) Rather, it's been his apparent impact on Amare Stoudemire. The Suns made this deal in part to move Stoudemire out of the center spot, so you have to give them credit for the results.
In 22 games at power forward, Stoudemire has been the best player in the league. No, really, he's been that good. He has averaged 29.4 points on 58.2 percent shooting and averaged nearly 11 free-throw attempts.
But the number that maybe is most important is 36.7. That's how many minutes per game he's played with Shaq, after averaging only 33.0 before the trade because he was in foul trouble too often. Stoudemire's foul rate is still fairly high, but it has declined just enough that he's able to play his regular minutes.
A pessimist would note the Suns have shot unbelievably well on 3s during the recent hot streak, and that's unlikely to hold up over an extended period. But if Stoudemire keeps playing this freakishly well it's not going to matter too much, because right now the difference between New Stoudemire and Old Stoudemire more than offsets the difference between Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal. I'd have never thought that possible, but it's happening.
Remaining schedule: It could be worse. Road games against San Antonio and Houston won't be fun, but they have two gimmies (home vs. Minnesota, at Memphis), and they should be able to handle home games against Dallas and Golden State.
Crystal ball says: The way they're playing they might grab six of the final seven and steal the division crown from L.A. The unfortunate thing is they probably have to win six of the seven, because the Lakers own the tiebreaker. So the smart money remains on the Suns ending up with the No. 5 seed and a brutal first-round pairing against Utah.
It's possible they could move up to No. 3 even if they don't win the division, because the Suns still play San Antonio and will own the tiebreak with a victory. But again, this scenario pretty much depends on them winning at least six of their last seven.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/hou.gif
Houston Rockets
Glass half-full: We're 34-9 since New Year's Day and 13-5 since losing Yao Ming.
Glass half-empty: We never won a playoff series even with Yao; now we're supposed to do it without him?
Key factoids you might not know: It seems obvious that the Rockets are worse off without Yao Ming … yet trying to find evidence for this is amazingly difficult. At the time Yao went out, the Rockets were 17th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency; today they're 16th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency.
In fact, the Rockets are 1.2 points per 48 minutes worse with Yao on the court this season. Of course, that's partly because he missed out on all those double-digit victories at the tail end of the win streak.
Nonetheless, late cracks have begun to show. The Rockets are 3-5 since their epic 22-game winning streak ended, with three of the losses by 20 or more. Tracy McGrady is the only Rocket who can reliably create a shot, and the strain is becoming apparent. His shot attempts went from 18.9 a game to 21.7 in a Yao-less March, and his shooting percentage went from 43.2 percent to 40.9 percent. He's not making 3s anymore either, because all his shots out there are off-the-dribble, under-duress tries rather than kick-outs from Yao -- he made just 23.4 percent in March.
Remaining schedule: Houston's schedule is extremely favorable, which could leave the Rockets in the hunt for the division crown if they catch a few breaks. They have two games apiece against the Sonics and Clippers, although roadies against the Nuggets and Jazz will be difficult.
Crystal ball says: Houston is in a tough spot, because if it doesn't beat either San Antonio or New Orleans in the Southwest Division, it means the Rockets probably draw either the Jazz or the Lakers in Round 1. So much for ending T-Mac's first-round streak.
Even with the soft schedule, Houston's most likely outcome is 54 or 55 wins, which is probably going to be one or two short of what they need to avoid the Lakers and Jazz in Round 1. Look for them to end up as the No. 6 seed, though if they beat Phoenix on April 11, they could improve to No. 5.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/den.gif
Denver Nuggets
Glass half-full: Nobody else has two big-time scorers like Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.
Glass half-empty: Nobody else's games look more ragged. Is this the NBA or the Rucker League?
Key factoids you might not know: Denver has the league's best free-throw "defense." Its opponents have made only 72.8 percent from the line this season. While some might attribute this to the Nuggets' speedy pace (and high altitude) tiring out opponents or being especially clever in choosing whom to foul, the bottom line is that this is almost certainly just plain old dumb luck.
And it's a pretty friendly piece of luck at that. Relative to the league, it's earned the Nuggets about 0.7 points per game, meaning it's been worth nearly two wins. In a playoff race which may be decided by one game, that's enormous. So basically, the reason Denver is probably headed to the playoffs instead of the lottery is the fact that its opponents can't make a free throw. What a country.
Remaining schedule: A four-game road trip with stops in Golden State and Utah won't be fun, but of their final seven games, five look like wins. Obviously the April 10 game at Golden State is huge: win that and they're pretty much a lock for the playoffs.
Crystal ball says: With tiebreakers over both Dallas and Golden State and the most favorable schedule of the three, it's going to take a real effort for Denver to stay home for the postseason, especially since the Nuggets are playing their best ball of the season.
Peg them for 51 wins and the No. 7 seed, and mark them down as a tough out in the first round. Even if they lose to Golden State next week, the schedules and tiebreakers combine to make it tough for Denver to miss.
I should also mention that the Nuggets retain a chance to beat out Utah for the Northwest Division and earn the No. 4 seed. Denver would have to win their upcoming meeting in Salt Lake City, which would give the Nuggets the tiebreaker, and could afford to lose one game at most between now and the end of the season. The Playoff Odds tool gives them a 10 percent shot of pulling it off.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/dal.gif
Dallas Mavericks
Glass half-full: Dirk's back and now all will be good.
Glass half-empty: Now we can disappoint everybody in the playoffs again.
Key factoids you might not know: The Mavs' 1-10 record against winning teams since acquiring Jason Kidd has been well-documented. But here's the thing: They actually played really well in that stretch, and only a flukish series of close losses prevented their record from being much better.
For starters, three of the losses were without Dirk -- two due to injury and one due to suspension -- so let's set those aside.
Now check out the other seven losses. They lost by 11 at New Orleans, three at San Antonio, four in OT against the Lakers, by six at Utah, two to the Lakers, four to Boston and seven to San Antonio. Combined, they lost seven games by a total of 37 points.
Those were Dallas' only defeats in that stretch. Meanwhile, the games against losing teams were all runaways: by 29, 25, 25, 20, 19, 16, 15, 13, 9, 8 and 7. No, hammering sub-.500 teams doesn't impress people nearly as much, but it's just as good a sign of a team's quality. In 11 games against losing teams, Dallas crushed pretty much every one.
So overall, they're 12-10 since trading for Kidd. But that's 12-7 when Dirk plays -- with an average scoring margin of plus-9.2 per game, which would easily be the best in the West. Everyone has focused on a series of consecutive close losses against good teams, which resulted more from bad luck than bad basketball, and ignored the fact that in all the other games Dallas completely outmatched its opponents.
What I'm saying, in a roundabout way, is that this team is being vastly underestimated at the moment. Yes, there are some issues here, and no, I'm still not particularly fond of the Kidd trade overall. But all the evidence since the deal says this team can hang with the West's elite, and now that they hammered Golden State last night it seems they'll get a chance to show it.
Remaining schedule: Dallas has the most murderous remaining schedule of any Western contender, with a home-and-home against Seattle providing the lone breaks. Otherwise it's on the road against Portland, Phoenix and the Lakers, and home dates against Utah and New Orleans.
Crystal ball says: Obviously, it all comes down to Dirk Nowitzki's ankle. Let's say this: I'm stunned he was able to come back from a high ankle sprain in less than two weeks and do anything, let alone lead a rout of Golden State. Clearly, he is an absolute freak of nature. This is normally a four-week injury, and often it lingers beyond that point.
By the way, how badly do you think the Mavs were chuckling to themselves last night as they watched Golden State take the floor and behold Nowitzki playing -- after a story leaked out earlier in the day saying he wasn't in the game plan. I have visions of Mark Cuban laughing diabolically throughout the game while stabbing a Don Nelson voodoo doll.
At any rate, because of the schedule they might have trouble doing better than 4-3 the rest of the way, even if Nowitzki plays. It would help if New Orleans is locked into their spot on the last day of the season, which is a possibility, because then the Hornets would likely play their scrubs and allow Dallas to roll.
But fortunately for Dallas, they are up two games on Golden State and own the tiebreaker, so it would take a collapse to keep them out of the playoffs now. Look for them to end up tied with Denver at 51 wins and get the No. 8 seed -- where they can try to turn the tables on what happened a year ago.
http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/gsw.gif
Golden State Warriors
Glass half-full: Nobody can catch lightning in a bottle like us.
Glass half-empty: Nobody can mail in games like us.
Key factoids you might not know: You might think this team is all about reckless abandon, but actually they have the second-lowest turnover ratio in the league, making miscues on just 12.9 percent of their possessions. That's pretty amazing given that they play the league's second-fastest pace, and it's a tribute to the skills of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson to play so quickly without making errors.
Now if they could just be a little smarter with their shots. Golden State is second in the league in 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt: 29.8 percent of their shots are 3s. But they convert them at a rate well below the league average: 35.1 percent.
Golden State also has hurt itself with some self-inflicted damage on the defensive end. The Warriors are dead last in defensive rebound percentage, pulling down only 69.8 percent of opponents' missed shots, which is yet one more reason it should drive Warriors fans crazy that their best defensive rebounder, Andris Biedrins, has played more than 30 minutes in a game exactly once since March 7. On Tuesday he played just 16, even though he was the only Warrior with a positive plus/minus in a blowout loss to the Spurs.
Remaining schedule: Probable losses remain in road games against New Orleans and Phoenix, but the others look very winnable. The key game is April 10 at home against Denver, but with Memphis, Sacramento, Seattle and the Clippers left, a 4-4 finish seems the worst-case scenario.
Crystal ball says: They pretty much screwed themselves with last night's face-plant in Dallas, and now might need to run the table to get to the postseason. Golden State has to beat Denver, certainly, but even that might not be enough because the rest of the Nuggets' schedule is easier and Denver wins the tiebreaker.
I'm projecting both Dallas and Denver to finish with 51 wins, which means Golden State needs to win 52 to get in ahead of them, requiring a 7-0 finish. Based on that schedule, it's not real likely, and the Playoff Odds tool agrees: Last night's loss dropped their odds to 31.0 percent, and it seems to me that's still overstating things.