Spurs Playoff Picture

[YoMamaIsCallin]

The Spurs head-to-head tiebreaks are now all determined. However 3-way and even 4-way ties are possible and more analysis is needed (see my post at the end of this thread).

If the Spurs end up tied in a 2-way tie with:

Hornets -- Spurs have lost tiebreak
Rockets -- Spurs have won tiebreak
Jazz -- Spurs have lost tiebreak
Suns -- Spurs have lost tiebreak
Lakers -- Spurs have lost tiebreak.

Here's my raw data, updated through the games of 4/13.




Team Seed W L Lft Magic TB H2H H2H lft Div W Div L Conf W Conf L Remaining Games
Lakers 1 56 25 1 0 Lost 2 - 2 0 36 15 SAC
Hornets 2 55 25 2 -1 Lost 2 - 2 0 10 5 33 17 LAC, @DAL
Spurs 3 54 26 2 n/a n/a 0 10 6 31 19 @SAC, UTA
Jazz 4 53 27 2 2 Lost 1 - 2 1 32 18 HOU, @SAS
Rockets 5 54 26 2 2 Won 2 - 2 0 8 8 32 18 @UTA, LAC
Suns 6 53 27 2 2 Lost 1 - 3 0 29 21 GSW, POR
Mavs 7 50 30 2 0 Won 3 - 1 0 9 6 32 18 @SEA, NOH
notes:
TB: tiebreak vs. Spurs. "Lost" means Spurs have lost tiebreak, "Won" means Spurs have won tiebreak.
H2H: head-to-head record. H2H lft: H2H games left.
updated through 4/13 games
Jazz have clinched the NW division and no worse than a 4 seed.
Spurs have clinched no worse than a 6 seed, they cannot fall below Dallas.
Lakers own the tiebreak against the Hornets.

[O-Factor]

I'd be more than happy with the 2 seed and facing the Mavs in round 1.

[FromWayDowntown]

Actually, the Jazz will own a tiebreaker against the Spurs, too, even if the Spurs win the next game. A Spurs win on the 16th would knot the season series, but the Spurs were better in games against the East than Utah was (SA was 23-7 against the East; Utah was 21-9 against the East), meaning that if the teams are tied, Utah will necessarily have a better record against the West, giving them the second tiebreaker.

The exact same scenario benefits the Spurs with a win tonight against the Suns. Aside from winning against one of the formidable opponents left on the schedule, a Spurs win tonight would clinch a tiebreaker against Phoenix because the Suns had the better record against the East. (Phoenix was 24-6 against the East).

You're right about the outcome of the Lakers' game in tiebreaker terms -- Spurs win gives them a 3-1 head-to-head tiebreaker; Lakers win evens the season series and the Lakers will have the better record against the West should the teams end up tied. (LAL was 20-10 against the East).

Obviously for the Spurs, the games against Phoenix and at LA are crucial to maintaining a top 4 seed and for hoping to maintain a top 2 seed. The Hornets' loss last night opens the door to the possibility that the Spurs could win the division and perhaps still get the #1 seed, but they're going to have to be 2 games better than New Orleans over the last 5, since the Hornets own the tiebreaker.

[sribb43]

I'd be more than happy with the 2 seed and facing the Mavs in round 1.

wow spurs fans want the mavs, and mavs fans want the spurs

[YoMamaIsCallin]

...


You are correct sir.

The tiebreak vs. the Jazz would have to go like this:

Spurs beat Jazz. Then Spurs lose 3 more games than the Jazz in the others they both have remaining. They'd be tied in overall W-L, and head-to-head, but the Jazz would win on conference record.
Spurs lose to Jazz. Jazz own tiebreak on head-to-head.

So in either case the Jazz win the tiebreak.

I'll update the original post, and thanks for catching that error.

[FromWayDowntown]

Though it's unlikely that they'll matter, if you wanted to be complete about the teams vying for playoff spots, the Spurs own the tiebreaker over Dallas and Denver, but lose the tiebreaker to the Warriors.

[urunobili]

I'd be more than happy with the 2 seed and facing the Mavs in round 1.
+1

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Though it's unlikely that they'll matter, if you wanted to be complete about the teams vying for playoff spots, the Spurs own the tiebreaker over Dallas and Denver, but lose the tiebreaker to the Warriors.

I left them off because the Spurs have clinched a higher seed and better record than any of these (Dallas, Denver, Golden State). In Dallas' case, they could theoretically end up with a tied regular season record (if the Spurs lose all their remaining games and the Mavs win all of theirs), but the Spurs own the tiebreak against them because of better head-to-head records. In the other two cases, the Spurs have clinched a better record overall.

I was focusing only on the top 6 teams because the Spurs have clinched no worse than a #6 seed. I guess I should have said that explicitly. I'll edit the OP.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

The schedule is nuts:

NO: @MIN, @LAL, @SAC, LAC, @DAL -- worst case 3-2?
SA: PHO, SEA, @LAL, @SAC, UTA -- worst case 2-3?
LAL: @LAC, NOH, SAS, SAC -- worst case 2-2?
UTA: @DAL, DEN, HOU, @SAS - worst case 2-2? 1-3?
HOU: SEA, PHO, @DEN, @UTA, LAC -- worst case 2-3?
PHX: @SAS, @HOU, GSW, POR -- worst case 1-3?

I can't even begin to guess how all of this is going to shake out. Obviously, Spurs/PHO, Spurs/LAL, LAL/NOH, DAL/NOH, Spurs/UTA are going to be huge. I have a feeling this is coming down to the last day of the season. This whole thing will probably be decided by something crazy like the Hornets getting upset by Sacramento or the Clips.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

I've updated the original post with data as of last night.

I'm worried about the Suns now. If they win out vs. Houston, Golden State, and Portland, and the Spurs lose one game, the Spurs slip to the 5 or 6 seed just like that, and a first-round matchup with the Suns or Jazz.

[kobyz]

if the spurs end up number 2 seed and will beat mavs in the first round they will face in the second round the number 3 seed that will be or the lakers or the suns and that team will be fresh after sweeping the number 6 seed the hoston rockets in the first round.
so i prefer to be the number 3 seed and to face the rockets in the first round and to come fresh to the second round against lakers/suns after they will beat the hell of each other.
and i even prefer to be the number 5 seed and to face the number 4 seed the utah jazz with an home court advantage and to face the inexperienced New Orleans in the second round.

[101A]

if the spurs end up number 2 seed and will beat mavs in the first round they will face in the second round the number 3 seed that will be or the lakers or the suns and that team will be fresh after sweeping the number 6 seed the hoston rockets in the first round.
so i prefer to be the number 3 seed and to face the rockets in the first round and to come fresh to the second round against lakers/suns after they will beat the hell of each other.
and i even prefer to be the number 5 seed and to face the number 4 seed the utah jazz with an home court advantage and to face the inexperienced New Orleans in the second round.Hmmm, the Third or 5th seed is more attractive?

But last night's game was SO important!

[kobyz]

Hmmm, the Third or 5th seed is more attractive?

But last night's game was SO important!


i'm looking at the bigger picture and that my opinion

[YoMamaIsCallin]

I've updated the data with the 4/10 games. The tiebreak situation hasn't changed.

The Hornets' magic number vs. the Spurs is 2. Any combination of Hornets wins and Spurs losses adding up to 2 means the Spurs cannot overtake the Hornets.

The game Sunday vs. the Lakers is huge. Assuming the Spurs beat Seattle and the Lakers beat the Hornets tonight, the Lakers can clinch a higher seed than the Spurs by beating them. Or, the Spurs can set themselves up to get a higher seed than the Lakers by beating them and then winning their last two games against SAC and UTA. Let's hope the Hornets do us a favor by beating the Lakers. Then the Spurs could clinch a higher seed than the Lakers by beating them on Sunday.

Vs. the Jazz, the Spurs have already lost the tiebreak, but they are two games up now in the loss column (since the Jazz got beat by the Mavs.. thank you Mavs). The Jazz have already clinched no worse than the #4 seed but they are still playing for HCA in the first round. The final game of the season is vs. the Jazz at home. The Spurs may be playing for HCA in the first round if they slip behind the Lakers and Rockets. I hope that doesn't happen, it'd be nice to rest the starters in the last game.

Vs. the Rockets, the Spurs are tied, but own the tiebreak. The Rockets have to play the Suns at home tonight, then Denver and Utah on the road, before a season ending game vs. the Clippers. This may come down to whether the Spurs face the Suns or the Jazz in the first round by ending up at #3 or #5.

Vs. the Suns, the Spurs are only one up in the loss column. The Suns are on the road at Houston tonight and then face the motivated Warriors at home, followed by a likely home win vs. Portland. The Suns are playing well and may win out, thus challenging the Spurs for that #2/#3 spot.

[Allanon]

Sunday, April 13th in LA...

If the Spurs lose, they drop down to the #6 seed.

If the Spurs win, that should give them a #2 and a VERY realistic chance at a #1 spot as I think the Hornets will lose at Lakers, Dallas and possibly even at the Kings.

If the Lakers win vs Hornets tonight and on Sunday vs Spurs, they will most likely end up with the #1 seed.

Utah, Houston and Phoenix all have killer games left against one another so I dunno how that's going to shake out, only 2 games separate #2-#6

[hsxvvd]

Best case scenario we hold 3rd and Houston slip to 6th.

More than possible if you look at Houson's last few. Today Phoenix v. Houston, should do it. CIA Pop lost to Suns deliberately to help create this match up. Beautiful work.

[Indazone]

Best Case scenario for the Spurs yes. For the Rockets, we'd rather see the Spurs play the Suns in the first round lol.

[pad300]

Best case scenario we hold 3rd and Houston slip to 6th.

More than possible if you look at Houson's last few. Today Phoenix v. Houston, should do it. CIA Pop lost to Suns deliberately to help create this match up. Beautiful work.


Nah, our best case is drop to 4/5 and houston climbs to 4/5. That way we are on the NO side of the bracket, and play houston in the 1st round.

SA Vs. Houston > SA Wins
NO vs Denver???? Denver has a shot. Which would be really sweet, because we can take Denver. Also, even if the Hornets win, Denver will hand out more bruises than Houston...

The other side of the bracket is then Mavs (7), Utah (3), LA (2), and Pheonix (6?). All of these teams are significant threats, and only one will survive to challenge us for Western conference supremacy, assuming we beat the Hornets.

A 4 vs 5 matchup with Houston is also better as it improves our draft position.

[1Parker1]

Spurs lost tiebreaker to the 3 top teams in the league this season in the Hornets, Jazz, and Suns, and possibly to the Lakers soon enough.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

So, Spurs win, Rockets knock off Suns, and the Lakers up on the Hornets by 20 at halftime.

Good thing the Spurs won. Assuming the Lakers don't blow it, after tonight it'll look like:

Hornets 55-24/3 left
Lakers 55-25/2 left
Spurs 54-25/3 left
Jazz 52-27/3 left
Rockets 54-25/3 left (but Spurs own tiebreak against them)
Suns 53-27/2 left

Assuming the Lakers beat the Hornets, they'll be tied head-to-head, so a tiebreak would go to conference record. Again assuming the win, the Hornets conference record will be 33-16 and the Lakers 35-15, so if they finish tied (i.e. the Hornets lose one more than the Lakers in their remaining games), the Lakers would own the tiebreak and finish with the #1 seed. Bottom line: the winner of the Lakers-Hornets game also owns the tiebreak between them, so it counts twice as much in the race for 1st.

edit: well the Hornets have cut it to a 10-point lead in the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half! It's now a ballgame.

[T Park]

and possibly to the Lakers soon enough.

Cool I don't have to watch the game then :tu

[Martin R]

an update would be great! great analysis fro you guys

[BillsCarnage]

After the Suns pissed away a golden opp. to be in the drivers seat for the #3 spot it'll likely be the Suns against the Spurs or Hornets in the 1st round as the Suns have the #6 pretty much locked up. I see the Fakers winning out and getting the #1 seed.

[Agloco]

You are correct sir.

The tiebreak vs. the Jazz would have to go like this:

Spurs beat Jazz. Then Spurs lose 3 more games than the Jazz in the others they both have remaining. They'd be tied in overall W-L, and head-to-head, but the Jazz would win on conference record.
Spurs lose to Jazz. Jazz own tiebreak on head-to-head.

So in either case the Jazz win the tiebreak.

I'll update the original post, and thanks for catching that error.


This is now irrelevant. No way they end up tied.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

an update would be great! great analysis fro you guys

I update the original post of this thread daily.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

This is now irrelevant. No way they end up tied.

Well it's totally irrelevant since the Jazz beat the Spurs (bad), the Jazz now own the tiebreak.

[manufor3]

wow spurs fans want the mavs, and mavs fans want the spurs
:lol your sig

[YoMamaIsCallin]

With the Hornets loss to the Kings, there are now 4 teams with 25 losses. The Jazz and Suns both have 27 losses.

Lakers 55-25 left: Spurs, Kings
Hornets 55-25 left: Clippers, Mavs
Spurs 54-25 left: Lakers, Kings, Jazz
Rockets 54-25 left: Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers

The only game left among these four teams is Spurs vs. Lakers.

One of these teams will be bumped to the 5th seed because Utah can finish no worse than 4th.

The possibilities boggle the mind.

Here's the tiebreak story:

Lakers vs. Hornets: Lakers own.
Lakers vs. Spurs: depends on Sunday's game.
Lakers vs. Rockets: Rockets own.
Hornets vs. Spurs: Hornets own.
Hornets vs. Rockets: Hornets own.
Spurs vs. Rockets: Spurs own.

[Allanon]

Spurs, Lakers and Rockets should all send the Kings a bunch of strippers tonight to thank them for beating the Hornets :D

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Spurs, Lakers and Rockets should all send the Kings a bunch of strippers tonight to thank them for beating the Hornets :D

The Kings also play the Lakers and the Spurs! They can be big time spoilers.

[TampaDude]

The Kings also play the Lakers and the Spurs! They can be big time spoilers.

GO KINGS...wait...DON'T GO, KINGS...ah, fuck it...the West is insane this year... :lol

[Quasar]

Nice work!

How did the spurs win the tie break against Houston?

They're 2-2 so the next tie-breaker would be conference record, and right now, Houston has 1 more win.

The following NBA link specifies that division record is NOT used as tie-breaker if more than 2 teams are tied (e.g. Phoenix, Houston, Spurs):
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html#tbb

[hsxvvd]

What if...

NBA re-does the structure of finals... to be best 16 teams, 1 v 16, 2 v 15 and so on.

We'd be 5th best team right now...

Spurs v. Cleveland 1st Round.

Would this be preferred?

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Nice work!

How did the spurs win the tie break against Houston?

They're 2-2 so the next tie-breaker would be conference record, and right now, Houston has 1 more win.


If the Spurs and Rockets are tied and no one else is tied with them (it's a two-team tie), the division record is the next tiebreak after head-to-head, and the Spurs own that.



The following NBA link specifies that division record is NOT used as tie-breaker if more than 2 teams are tied (e.g. Phoenix, Houston, Spurs):
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html#tbb


Not exactly. It says the divison record is used if the three tied teams are all in the same division. But you raise a good point -- I did not consider three-way ties in my tiebreak analysis.

So here's a start:

1) Spurs, Rockets, and Suns all tied at (let's say) 55-27. The first three-way tiebreak is cumulative record among the three teams. The Suns are 5-3 in games vs. the Spurs and Rockets. The Rockets are 4-4, the Spurs are 3-5. So in this scenario, the tie would be broken as the Suns, Rockets, Spurs in that order. So, actually, you are exactly correct! The Spurs do NOT yet own the tiebreak against Houston because this three-way tie COULD happen. Bizarrely, the fact that the Rockets had a better record vs. the Suns than the Spurs did would mean that the Rockets would beat out the Spurs.

2) Spurs, Rockets, and Hornets all tied at (let's say) 56-26. The first tiebreak is cumulative record among the three teams. They are all tied at 4-4. The next tiebreak is division record since they are all in the same division. This would cause the tiebreak to be resolved as Hornets, Spurs, Rockets in that order. Why? First, the Rockets are clearly behind at 8-8. The Spurs are 10-6, and the Hornets either beat Dallas to finish 11-5 thus winning the tiebreak, or they lose to Dallas and finish 10-6. In this last case, the Hornets conference record would be the next tiebreak and they'd be 1 game better than the Spurs.

Other 3-way and even 4-way ties are possible, I'd have to spend more time to figure them out! But you get the idea.