timvp
04-18-2008, 07:18 AM
Series Thoughts: Spurs vs. Suns Preview
By LJ & Kori Ellis
Coming into this season, everyone assumed that we’d get a San Antonio Spurs versus Phoenix Suns rematch in the 2008 playoffs. After last year’s exciting and controversial series, it was a given that these two teams would be matched up once again this year. However, I doubt anyone would have guessed that we’d be seeing this series in the first round.
I also doubt that anyone foresaw how things would change. With virtually the same team that went 16-4 during the 2007 playoffs, the Spurs struggled throughout most of the regular season. While they finished with a respectable 56-26 record, the Spurs never really sustained championship level basketball for any stretch of time during the 82 game season. Injury was one problem, but other more serious problems such as a lack of cohesion and a lack of consistency were also main culprits.
The Suns have had an even bumpier ride since the 2007 playoffs. After apparently giving up on the Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion frontline, the Suns decided to supersize their lineup by trading Marion for The Big Sand Dune. With Shaquille O’Neal now on their side, Phoenix is now a bigger, stronger and undoubtedly hungrier unit – both literally and figuratively.
Although the Suns were a bit slow to adapt to having The Big Midseason Acquisition in the middle, Phoenix has already seen the move pay dividends against the Spurs. With O’Neal on their side, the Suns won the final two meetings against the Spurs. O’Neal was extremely helpful in terms of guarding Tim Duncan and clogging the lane to prevent penetration from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Now it’s the Spurs’ time to adjust. O’Neal was the Suns’ answer to the Spurs. How can the Spurs counterattack the Suns? Let us take a look.
TIM DUNCAN
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LJ's View: Tim Duncan has to show up offensively against O’Neal and the Suns. In the two games against Phoenix after the O’Neal trade, Duncan has struggled. His struggles became more pronounced as the games went along. In the fourth quarter of each game, Duncan had been turned into a liability offensively. That has to change. While O’Neal has definitely had moments of quality defensive play against Duncan over the years, Duncan has also been able to abuse O’Neal at times. Duncan must do that in this series for the Spurs to have a chance. If O’Neal limits Duncan, the Spurs have absolutely no chance to win. Defensively, Duncan needs to protect the rim and simultaneously be aware enough to stay out of foul trouble. Stoudemire and O’Neal form an imposing frontline but Duncan should be able to disrupt while avoiding fouls.
Kori's View: Though the series doesn't begin and end with Tim Duncan, he's a huge part of it. Throughout the years, O’Neal has always given Duncan problems and I don't expect that to change. No matter if he's older, slower or fatter, he's still Shaq and the space he takes up is enough to cause difficulties. That being said, I'd like for Duncan to realize that he's the best power forward of all-time and that he can score on anybody. Despite coasting for the majority of the season, Duncan is still a force on both ends of the court. If he stays aggressive around the rim offensively and protects it on D, like we know he can, the Spurs should be in good shape.
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MANU GINOBILI
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LJ's View: Manu Ginobili wasn’t very impressive in either game against the Suns after the O’Neal trade. He seemed hesitant to penetrate against the Suns’ improved frontline. In this series, that must change. Ginobili relentless attacking the rim is a must. He’s going up against a solid defender in Raja Bell but Ginobili has proven in the past that he can score against Bell. Coming off of his best regular season of his NBA career, Ginobili should hopefully be able to carry that level of play in the postseason. Last year against the Suns, Ginobili laid a few eggs. This season, the Spurs can’t afford any egg laying out of their Argentine superstar.
Kori's Views: It's Manu Time. Manu Ginobili has one of the greatest wills to win that I have ever seen in a basketball player. He defines "champion" because that's all that matters to him. He has unselfishly changed his role from bench player to starter and back again to benefit the team. And though he hasn't impressed against the Suns this season, the playoffs are a whole other animal to Ginobili. I fully expect that Ginobili will build upon his career season and dominate Bell and the Suns in round 1.
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TONY PARKER
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LJ's View: Tony Parker has had good stretches of play against the O’Neal Suns, however he needs to be more consistent. Parker pushing the ball, creating havoc and staying in attack mode are vital elements to San Antonio's offense. He’ll be used a lot in pick-and-roll action and he needs to consistently get to the rim. The Suns also will try to force him to hit his jumper and he’ll need to make Phoenix pay for that strategy. Defensively, Parker needs to shut down Leandro Barbosa like he usually does. If he’s called upon to guard Steve Nash or Bell, he’ll need to play solid defense. Last year, Parker played pretty darn well against the Suns. He led the Spurs in plus/minus for the series and averaged approximately 21 points and six assists. San Antonio will need another good series out of Parker.
Kori's View: After battling health problems for almost half of the season, Parker got it together as the season wound down. The last two games of the regular campaign were perhaps some of the best basketball we have seen Parker play since the 2007 playoffs. Parker's favorite word seems to be aggressive ("Pop told me to stay aggressive.") and this series it's going to be all about Parker's aggressive penetration. The Spurs are virtually unstoppable when Parker continues to drive the lane, whether he's scoring or dishing.
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BRUCE BOWEN
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LJ's View: Bruce Bowen will have one of the toughest tasks in the series when he takes the challenge of defending Nash. This season, I thought he defended Nash well in every game except the season finale against Phoenix. Bowen will need to have a great defensive series to give the Spurs a chance. If Nash gets loose to both score and dish out assists by the truckload, it’ll be tough for the Spurs to win. But if Bowen can make life difficult for Nash, that’d be a huge positive for the Spurs. To do so, Bowen has to stay out of foul trouble and keep his composure throughout the series. Offensively, his job is to knock in the corner three-pointers. If Duncan can dominate inside and Parker and Ginobili can get to the rim, Bowen should find himself open a lot in the corners.
Kori's View: We have heard that Bruce Bowen's losing a step for three seasons now. And at nearly 37-years-old, logic tells us he should slow down soon. But in actuality, we haven't seen much slowing down from Bowen. This series, he will have the unenviable task of guarding Nash. This is where I believe the Marion-O’Neal trade pays off in the Spurs favor. In past years, Bowen would oftentimes have to switch back and forth between guarding Marion and Nash. Now Bowen will be able to stay home on Nash for the majority of the game. On offense, Bowen needs to just get to his spot and know his limitations.
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MICHAEL FINLEY
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LJ's View: Michael Finley is going to be counted on to be the fourth scorer for the Spurs in this series. Last year, his 13.3 average against the Suns in the playoffs was extremely important. The Spurs will need him to average 10-12 points again this year. The good news is Finley is shooting the ball extremely well right now. In the month of April, Finley shot over 50% from the floor and averaged 11 points in 28 minutes. If he can spread the floor by draining three-pointers, the Spurs offense will be able to flow much easier. Defensively, Finley is going to need to have a good series. In fact, his defense may be more important than his offense. With Bowen on Nash, it’ll be Finley’s job to slow down Grant Hill. Hill is the x-factor in this series and it is up to Finley to keep him in check.
Kori's View: I wasn't the biggest Michael Finley supporter during his rough times this year. That slump was everlasting and I really wasn't sure that he was ever going to work his way out of it. That said, Finley finished off the season in fine fashion helping spread the floor with his accuracy from the perimeter. I'm not sure how much Finley will contribute on the other end of the floor but he has to try. When Finley gets out of synch on offense (which is likely to happen here and there), he loses his way on D too, floating around the court in slow motion. That can't happen in this series – Hill is too good.
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FABRICIO OBERTO
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LJ's View: Fabricio Oberto’s role in this series will be interesting. To date, Oberto has shown absolutely no ability to defend O’Neal. O’Neal's combination of size and strength has just been too much for Oberto. And since that is unlikely to change at this point, Oberto will need to attempt to slow down Stoudemire. While he’ll obviously be at an athletic disadvantage, he needs to at least stay in front of him and force Stoudemire to hit contested jumpers. Oberto’s goal in each game should be to not allow Stoudemire to dunk the ball. If Oberto can buy even a few decent minutes against O’Neal, that will be a plus – although I’m highly skeptical that is realistic. Offensively, Oberto’s jumper will need to find the bottom of the net. O’Neal and Stoudemire won’t respect his jumper so Oberto will get as many open looks as he wants. Making the Suns pay is imperative.
Kori's View: Like his Argentinean teammate, Fabricio Oberto is a playoff performer. He's not strong enough to guard O’Neal or athletic enough to guard Stoudemire, but he's savvy enough to do some good things and I know he won't give up. On the glass, he needs to try to pull down some more boards rather than just tapping them out. On offense, the Spurs will need Oberto to stick the jumper up top and cut with regularity when he doesn't have the ball.
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IME UDOKA
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LJ's View: Ime Udoka was signed this past offseason to be the team’s fifth swingman. All of a sudden, he’s a vital piece of the rotation heading into the playoffs. Udoka’s concentration coming into the series should be on rebounding. Since acquiring O’Neal, the Suns have gone from a horrible rebounding team to a very good rebounding team. Udoka is arguably the best rebounding perimeter player on the Spurs and he’ll need to go down low and scrap for boards. Defensively, he’ll likely find himself defending everyone from Nash to Hill. Pop may even put him on Stoudemire if the Spurs are to employ a small ball lineup. If Hill gets going in this series, it’ll be up to Udoka to slow him down. On offense, Udoka will need to take smart shots. Most of his looks will likely come from beyond the three-point line. The Spurs can’t afford for him to shoot less than 35% on threes in this series.
Kori's View: The main reason that I like the Ime Udoka acquisition is that it allowed Bowen to get a little more rest this season. In this series, he'll continue to spell Bowen, as well as get some minutes alongside of him in a small ball lineup. Like LJ, I believe Udoka will get some minutes on Hill because Finley may not be able to hang with Hill. My main problem with Udoka this season has been his shot selection. For the Spurs to run like a machine, their role players need to know their roles. At times this year, Udoka stepped out of his role offensively and the results weren't pretty. If he can stay aggressive on the glass, hold his own against Hill and knock down his threes, that's all the Spurs need.
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KURT THOMAS
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LJ's View: Kurt Thomas was on the other side of the fence at this point last year. Now the former Suns player will go up against his ex-team and will play an important role for the Spurs. Thomas should see a lot of time on the low blocks defending against O’Neal. If Thomas can get O’Neal to repeatedly shoot turnaround jumpers like he did in the season finale between these two teams, that’ll be a great accomplishment. Pulling down defensive rebounds will also be important for Thomas in each game. Offensively, like Oberto, Thomas will get a large number of open jumpers. If he can knock down those jumpers, he could score a lot of points in this series. The last game against the Suns, Thomas was missing his jumpers and Pop went away from him. That can’t happen in this series.
Kori's View: Kurt Thomas will see some time on O’Neal but I believe his biggest role in this series may be his ability to knock down his J's. If Parker and Ginobili penetrate and dish, their teammates have to hit their shots. With the Suns focusing their D on the Big Three, Thomas should be open early and often.
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JACQUE VAUGHN
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LJ's View: Jacque Vaughn was really bad for the Spurs last year in the playoffs against the Suns outside of a third quarter stretch in Game 6. San Antonio needs Vaughn to not be horrible this year. He doesn’t need to do anything great. If he can buy minutes for Parker, play aggressive defense and push the ball, that will be enough. Vaughn’s goal in this series should be to have a plus/minus of at least zero.
Kori's View: Though Parker is young, he can't play 48 minutes. In recent years, the Spurs have never had a stable back-up to Parker but that changed when Jacque Vaughn came on board. For the most part, Vaughn has done a decent job this season for what the Spurs expect of him. If he stays active defensively, maintains the tempo and takes care of the basketball, that's all they need.
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BRENT BARRY
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LJ's View: Brent Barry enters this series as a question mark. Can he help the Spurs? It’s tough to say decisively one way or the other. Although history does tell us that Barry plays very well against the Suns. If the Spurs get cold from beyond the arc, Barry will likely be called upon to hit some big shots. At one point in the series, you have to believe Pop will throw Barry out there to help a stagnant offense. If Barry can help, that’d be a huge plus. Defensively, it’s tough to expect much of anything from Barry at this point, especially with a still tender calf muscle.
Kori's View: I wasn't sure that Brent Barry would make it back to the court this season. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised in the last couple regular season games. Barry's ball handling and three-point shooting were sorely missed and a big part of why the Spurs weren't as consistent this season. Though he's not in game shape yet, I'd imagine Barry will be back in the flow by the end of this series. His presence will help spread the floor and keep the ball moving, which is vital for the Spurs to be successful. When they have played poorly this season, the offense has been stagnant and the three-point shooting has been atrocious.
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ROBERT HORRY
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LJ's View: Robert Horry, the player who caused the most commotion in the series last year, enters this series about as quiet as possible. He is suffering from a knee injury that may or may not keep him out the entire series. The Spurs could definitely use him if he can get healthy enough. Although realistically, it’s tough to imagine Horry getting healthy enough and in rhythm enough to help San Antonio in this series.
Kori's View: I'm not a doctor, so I'm not going to say that Robert Horry isn't physically ready for the playoffs. With any luck, he's been just resting rather than rehabilitating. I have learned over the years not to doubt Horry. So until he hangs up his sneakers for good, I will firmly believe that he's still got game. At one point this series, we will have Spurs fans debating whether it's "Big Shot Rob" or "Big Shot Bob" because I believe that Horry has got one big shot left in him before he's done.
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MATT BONNER & DAMON STOUDAMIRE
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LJ's View: Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire likely won’t see much action. In fact, if you are a Spurs fan, you should hope that you don’t see much of either player on the court. If you do, that means Pop has reached deep into his bag of tricks. Bonner’s ability to stretch the floor with his shooting would be valuable in theory, however I just don’t see how he’d survive defensively. Stoudamire should only be used if Vaughn simply becomes too much of a liability offensively.
Kori's View: The Spurs are either in real trouble or coasting to a blow out win if we see much action from Bonner and Stoudamire. I can see Pop using Bonner in some special situations, but it's not that likely. He has to scale down the rotation and these two should be out of the loop unless the Spurs are up (or down) big.
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COACHING
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LJ's View: Pop really needs to have one of his best coaching series of his basketball life. The Suns are a multi-faceted club that is hard to prepare for and play against. And now with O’Neal changing the whole equation, it’s much easier for the Suns than the Spurs. The Suns and O’Neal are playing the same Spurs team they’ve faced countless times. The Spurs, on the other hand, have to attempt to tame a beast they haven’t encountered before.
Defensively is where I worry most about the Spurs. Pop needs to help Duncan stay out of foul trouble by smartly rotating him between O’Neal and Stoudemire. Pop needs to keep Oberto off of O’Neal as much as possible, while also putting Thomas on O’Neal as much as possible. Bowen on Nash is a Pop favorite, although Pop should be quick to alter the alignment if it isn’t working.
Offensively, it’s more up to the players to perform. Pop can’t make Duncan dominate O’Neal – only Duncan can make Duncan do that. Pop does need to call a lot of pick-and-rolls and continually insist that the Spurs push the pace on offense. Parker and Ginobili need to be aggressive and attack the rim as much as possible, which Pop should demand.
What wrinkles could Pop throw at the Suns? Small ball is possible but it could be suicide. If the Suns go small, countering with small ball makes sense. To try to small ball the Suns' starting lineup doesn't make sense. Sending double-teams to any one player on the Suns will likely be a mistake. Their three-point shooters and perimeter ball movement will make the Spurs pay for trying to double too frequently. Pick-and-rolls offensively should be a mainstay this series for the Spurs, however the guards must attack the rim and the bigs must be able to knock down jumpers. Otherwise, the pick-and-roll tactic could backfire and slow down the offense too much.
Kori's View: Since LJ rambled so much I'll just say one thing, Popovich > D'Antoni. :)
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SERIES OVERVIEW
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LJ's View: Overall, this is going to be a very tough series. In 2005 and 2007, I was supremely confident in the Spurs’ ability to overcome the gimmicky Suns. Now, with the acquisition of O’Neal, the Suns no longer rely on gimmicks to win. The Suns have the ability, the personnel, the veteran know-how and the motivation to win this series.
That said, the Spurs definitely are capable of sending the Suns packing once again. It’ll come down to the Big Three playing well, the shooters knocking down their perimeter looks, Bowen harassing Nash and the duo of Oberto and Thomas helping Duncan handle O’Neal and Stoudemire. It won’t be easy, but it can be done.
Believe.
Kori's View: In past years, I wasn't sure that the Spurs could run with the Suns and I was pleasantly surprised to see how well they handled it. This season there is a new wrinkle in the plan in the form of Shaquille O'Neal. And though the Suns have the ability to win the series, they won't.
When it comes down to it, I'll put the Spurs Big The (plus Bowen) against any starting lineup in the league and bet on the Spurs every single time over a seven game series (Yes, that includes the Boston Celtics). Don't underestimate the importance of the Spurs playoff experience as a unit and don't doubt their desire to repeat.
Spurs in 6.
By LJ & Kori Ellis
Coming into this season, everyone assumed that we’d get a San Antonio Spurs versus Phoenix Suns rematch in the 2008 playoffs. After last year’s exciting and controversial series, it was a given that these two teams would be matched up once again this year. However, I doubt anyone would have guessed that we’d be seeing this series in the first round.
I also doubt that anyone foresaw how things would change. With virtually the same team that went 16-4 during the 2007 playoffs, the Spurs struggled throughout most of the regular season. While they finished with a respectable 56-26 record, the Spurs never really sustained championship level basketball for any stretch of time during the 82 game season. Injury was one problem, but other more serious problems such as a lack of cohesion and a lack of consistency were also main culprits.
The Suns have had an even bumpier ride since the 2007 playoffs. After apparently giving up on the Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion frontline, the Suns decided to supersize their lineup by trading Marion for The Big Sand Dune. With Shaquille O’Neal now on their side, Phoenix is now a bigger, stronger and undoubtedly hungrier unit – both literally and figuratively.
Although the Suns were a bit slow to adapt to having The Big Midseason Acquisition in the middle, Phoenix has already seen the move pay dividends against the Spurs. With O’Neal on their side, the Suns won the final two meetings against the Spurs. O’Neal was extremely helpful in terms of guarding Tim Duncan and clogging the lane to prevent penetration from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Now it’s the Spurs’ time to adjust. O’Neal was the Suns’ answer to the Spurs. How can the Spurs counterattack the Suns? Let us take a look.
TIM DUNCAN
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LJ's View: Tim Duncan has to show up offensively against O’Neal and the Suns. In the two games against Phoenix after the O’Neal trade, Duncan has struggled. His struggles became more pronounced as the games went along. In the fourth quarter of each game, Duncan had been turned into a liability offensively. That has to change. While O’Neal has definitely had moments of quality defensive play against Duncan over the years, Duncan has also been able to abuse O’Neal at times. Duncan must do that in this series for the Spurs to have a chance. If O’Neal limits Duncan, the Spurs have absolutely no chance to win. Defensively, Duncan needs to protect the rim and simultaneously be aware enough to stay out of foul trouble. Stoudemire and O’Neal form an imposing frontline but Duncan should be able to disrupt while avoiding fouls.
Kori's View: Though the series doesn't begin and end with Tim Duncan, he's a huge part of it. Throughout the years, O’Neal has always given Duncan problems and I don't expect that to change. No matter if he's older, slower or fatter, he's still Shaq and the space he takes up is enough to cause difficulties. That being said, I'd like for Duncan to realize that he's the best power forward of all-time and that he can score on anybody. Despite coasting for the majority of the season, Duncan is still a force on both ends of the court. If he stays aggressive around the rim offensively and protects it on D, like we know he can, the Spurs should be in good shape.
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MANU GINOBILI
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LJ's View: Manu Ginobili wasn’t very impressive in either game against the Suns after the O’Neal trade. He seemed hesitant to penetrate against the Suns’ improved frontline. In this series, that must change. Ginobili relentless attacking the rim is a must. He’s going up against a solid defender in Raja Bell but Ginobili has proven in the past that he can score against Bell. Coming off of his best regular season of his NBA career, Ginobili should hopefully be able to carry that level of play in the postseason. Last year against the Suns, Ginobili laid a few eggs. This season, the Spurs can’t afford any egg laying out of their Argentine superstar.
Kori's Views: It's Manu Time. Manu Ginobili has one of the greatest wills to win that I have ever seen in a basketball player. He defines "champion" because that's all that matters to him. He has unselfishly changed his role from bench player to starter and back again to benefit the team. And though he hasn't impressed against the Suns this season, the playoffs are a whole other animal to Ginobili. I fully expect that Ginobili will build upon his career season and dominate Bell and the Suns in round 1.
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TONY PARKER
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LJ's View: Tony Parker has had good stretches of play against the O’Neal Suns, however he needs to be more consistent. Parker pushing the ball, creating havoc and staying in attack mode are vital elements to San Antonio's offense. He’ll be used a lot in pick-and-roll action and he needs to consistently get to the rim. The Suns also will try to force him to hit his jumper and he’ll need to make Phoenix pay for that strategy. Defensively, Parker needs to shut down Leandro Barbosa like he usually does. If he’s called upon to guard Steve Nash or Bell, he’ll need to play solid defense. Last year, Parker played pretty darn well against the Suns. He led the Spurs in plus/minus for the series and averaged approximately 21 points and six assists. San Antonio will need another good series out of Parker.
Kori's View: After battling health problems for almost half of the season, Parker got it together as the season wound down. The last two games of the regular campaign were perhaps some of the best basketball we have seen Parker play since the 2007 playoffs. Parker's favorite word seems to be aggressive ("Pop told me to stay aggressive.") and this series it's going to be all about Parker's aggressive penetration. The Spurs are virtually unstoppable when Parker continues to drive the lane, whether he's scoring or dishing.
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BRUCE BOWEN
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LJ's View: Bruce Bowen will have one of the toughest tasks in the series when he takes the challenge of defending Nash. This season, I thought he defended Nash well in every game except the season finale against Phoenix. Bowen will need to have a great defensive series to give the Spurs a chance. If Nash gets loose to both score and dish out assists by the truckload, it’ll be tough for the Spurs to win. But if Bowen can make life difficult for Nash, that’d be a huge positive for the Spurs. To do so, Bowen has to stay out of foul trouble and keep his composure throughout the series. Offensively, his job is to knock in the corner three-pointers. If Duncan can dominate inside and Parker and Ginobili can get to the rim, Bowen should find himself open a lot in the corners.
Kori's View: We have heard that Bruce Bowen's losing a step for three seasons now. And at nearly 37-years-old, logic tells us he should slow down soon. But in actuality, we haven't seen much slowing down from Bowen. This series, he will have the unenviable task of guarding Nash. This is where I believe the Marion-O’Neal trade pays off in the Spurs favor. In past years, Bowen would oftentimes have to switch back and forth between guarding Marion and Nash. Now Bowen will be able to stay home on Nash for the majority of the game. On offense, Bowen needs to just get to his spot and know his limitations.
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MICHAEL FINLEY
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LJ's View: Michael Finley is going to be counted on to be the fourth scorer for the Spurs in this series. Last year, his 13.3 average against the Suns in the playoffs was extremely important. The Spurs will need him to average 10-12 points again this year. The good news is Finley is shooting the ball extremely well right now. In the month of April, Finley shot over 50% from the floor and averaged 11 points in 28 minutes. If he can spread the floor by draining three-pointers, the Spurs offense will be able to flow much easier. Defensively, Finley is going to need to have a good series. In fact, his defense may be more important than his offense. With Bowen on Nash, it’ll be Finley’s job to slow down Grant Hill. Hill is the x-factor in this series and it is up to Finley to keep him in check.
Kori's View: I wasn't the biggest Michael Finley supporter during his rough times this year. That slump was everlasting and I really wasn't sure that he was ever going to work his way out of it. That said, Finley finished off the season in fine fashion helping spread the floor with his accuracy from the perimeter. I'm not sure how much Finley will contribute on the other end of the floor but he has to try. When Finley gets out of synch on offense (which is likely to happen here and there), he loses his way on D too, floating around the court in slow motion. That can't happen in this series – Hill is too good.
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FABRICIO OBERTO
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LJ's View: Fabricio Oberto’s role in this series will be interesting. To date, Oberto has shown absolutely no ability to defend O’Neal. O’Neal's combination of size and strength has just been too much for Oberto. And since that is unlikely to change at this point, Oberto will need to attempt to slow down Stoudemire. While he’ll obviously be at an athletic disadvantage, he needs to at least stay in front of him and force Stoudemire to hit contested jumpers. Oberto’s goal in each game should be to not allow Stoudemire to dunk the ball. If Oberto can buy even a few decent minutes against O’Neal, that will be a plus – although I’m highly skeptical that is realistic. Offensively, Oberto’s jumper will need to find the bottom of the net. O’Neal and Stoudemire won’t respect his jumper so Oberto will get as many open looks as he wants. Making the Suns pay is imperative.
Kori's View: Like his Argentinean teammate, Fabricio Oberto is a playoff performer. He's not strong enough to guard O’Neal or athletic enough to guard Stoudemire, but he's savvy enough to do some good things and I know he won't give up. On the glass, he needs to try to pull down some more boards rather than just tapping them out. On offense, the Spurs will need Oberto to stick the jumper up top and cut with regularity when he doesn't have the ball.
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IME UDOKA
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LJ's View: Ime Udoka was signed this past offseason to be the team’s fifth swingman. All of a sudden, he’s a vital piece of the rotation heading into the playoffs. Udoka’s concentration coming into the series should be on rebounding. Since acquiring O’Neal, the Suns have gone from a horrible rebounding team to a very good rebounding team. Udoka is arguably the best rebounding perimeter player on the Spurs and he’ll need to go down low and scrap for boards. Defensively, he’ll likely find himself defending everyone from Nash to Hill. Pop may even put him on Stoudemire if the Spurs are to employ a small ball lineup. If Hill gets going in this series, it’ll be up to Udoka to slow him down. On offense, Udoka will need to take smart shots. Most of his looks will likely come from beyond the three-point line. The Spurs can’t afford for him to shoot less than 35% on threes in this series.
Kori's View: The main reason that I like the Ime Udoka acquisition is that it allowed Bowen to get a little more rest this season. In this series, he'll continue to spell Bowen, as well as get some minutes alongside of him in a small ball lineup. Like LJ, I believe Udoka will get some minutes on Hill because Finley may not be able to hang with Hill. My main problem with Udoka this season has been his shot selection. For the Spurs to run like a machine, their role players need to know their roles. At times this year, Udoka stepped out of his role offensively and the results weren't pretty. If he can stay aggressive on the glass, hold his own against Hill and knock down his threes, that's all the Spurs need.
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KURT THOMAS
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LJ's View: Kurt Thomas was on the other side of the fence at this point last year. Now the former Suns player will go up against his ex-team and will play an important role for the Spurs. Thomas should see a lot of time on the low blocks defending against O’Neal. If Thomas can get O’Neal to repeatedly shoot turnaround jumpers like he did in the season finale between these two teams, that’ll be a great accomplishment. Pulling down defensive rebounds will also be important for Thomas in each game. Offensively, like Oberto, Thomas will get a large number of open jumpers. If he can knock down those jumpers, he could score a lot of points in this series. The last game against the Suns, Thomas was missing his jumpers and Pop went away from him. That can’t happen in this series.
Kori's View: Kurt Thomas will see some time on O’Neal but I believe his biggest role in this series may be his ability to knock down his J's. If Parker and Ginobili penetrate and dish, their teammates have to hit their shots. With the Suns focusing their D on the Big Three, Thomas should be open early and often.
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JACQUE VAUGHN
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LJ's View: Jacque Vaughn was really bad for the Spurs last year in the playoffs against the Suns outside of a third quarter stretch in Game 6. San Antonio needs Vaughn to not be horrible this year. He doesn’t need to do anything great. If he can buy minutes for Parker, play aggressive defense and push the ball, that will be enough. Vaughn’s goal in this series should be to have a plus/minus of at least zero.
Kori's View: Though Parker is young, he can't play 48 minutes. In recent years, the Spurs have never had a stable back-up to Parker but that changed when Jacque Vaughn came on board. For the most part, Vaughn has done a decent job this season for what the Spurs expect of him. If he stays active defensively, maintains the tempo and takes care of the basketball, that's all they need.
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BRENT BARRY
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LJ's View: Brent Barry enters this series as a question mark. Can he help the Spurs? It’s tough to say decisively one way or the other. Although history does tell us that Barry plays very well against the Suns. If the Spurs get cold from beyond the arc, Barry will likely be called upon to hit some big shots. At one point in the series, you have to believe Pop will throw Barry out there to help a stagnant offense. If Barry can help, that’d be a huge plus. Defensively, it’s tough to expect much of anything from Barry at this point, especially with a still tender calf muscle.
Kori's View: I wasn't sure that Brent Barry would make it back to the court this season. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised in the last couple regular season games. Barry's ball handling and three-point shooting were sorely missed and a big part of why the Spurs weren't as consistent this season. Though he's not in game shape yet, I'd imagine Barry will be back in the flow by the end of this series. His presence will help spread the floor and keep the ball moving, which is vital for the Spurs to be successful. When they have played poorly this season, the offense has been stagnant and the three-point shooting has been atrocious.
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ROBERT HORRY
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LJ's View: Robert Horry, the player who caused the most commotion in the series last year, enters this series about as quiet as possible. He is suffering from a knee injury that may or may not keep him out the entire series. The Spurs could definitely use him if he can get healthy enough. Although realistically, it’s tough to imagine Horry getting healthy enough and in rhythm enough to help San Antonio in this series.
Kori's View: I'm not a doctor, so I'm not going to say that Robert Horry isn't physically ready for the playoffs. With any luck, he's been just resting rather than rehabilitating. I have learned over the years not to doubt Horry. So until he hangs up his sneakers for good, I will firmly believe that he's still got game. At one point this series, we will have Spurs fans debating whether it's "Big Shot Rob" or "Big Shot Bob" because I believe that Horry has got one big shot left in him before he's done.
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MATT BONNER & DAMON STOUDAMIRE
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LJ's View: Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire likely won’t see much action. In fact, if you are a Spurs fan, you should hope that you don’t see much of either player on the court. If you do, that means Pop has reached deep into his bag of tricks. Bonner’s ability to stretch the floor with his shooting would be valuable in theory, however I just don’t see how he’d survive defensively. Stoudamire should only be used if Vaughn simply becomes too much of a liability offensively.
Kori's View: The Spurs are either in real trouble or coasting to a blow out win if we see much action from Bonner and Stoudamire. I can see Pop using Bonner in some special situations, but it's not that likely. He has to scale down the rotation and these two should be out of the loop unless the Spurs are up (or down) big.
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COACHING
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LJ's View: Pop really needs to have one of his best coaching series of his basketball life. The Suns are a multi-faceted club that is hard to prepare for and play against. And now with O’Neal changing the whole equation, it’s much easier for the Suns than the Spurs. The Suns and O’Neal are playing the same Spurs team they’ve faced countless times. The Spurs, on the other hand, have to attempt to tame a beast they haven’t encountered before.
Defensively is where I worry most about the Spurs. Pop needs to help Duncan stay out of foul trouble by smartly rotating him between O’Neal and Stoudemire. Pop needs to keep Oberto off of O’Neal as much as possible, while also putting Thomas on O’Neal as much as possible. Bowen on Nash is a Pop favorite, although Pop should be quick to alter the alignment if it isn’t working.
Offensively, it’s more up to the players to perform. Pop can’t make Duncan dominate O’Neal – only Duncan can make Duncan do that. Pop does need to call a lot of pick-and-rolls and continually insist that the Spurs push the pace on offense. Parker and Ginobili need to be aggressive and attack the rim as much as possible, which Pop should demand.
What wrinkles could Pop throw at the Suns? Small ball is possible but it could be suicide. If the Suns go small, countering with small ball makes sense. To try to small ball the Suns' starting lineup doesn't make sense. Sending double-teams to any one player on the Suns will likely be a mistake. Their three-point shooters and perimeter ball movement will make the Spurs pay for trying to double too frequently. Pick-and-rolls offensively should be a mainstay this series for the Spurs, however the guards must attack the rim and the bigs must be able to knock down jumpers. Otherwise, the pick-and-roll tactic could backfire and slow down the offense too much.
Kori's View: Since LJ rambled so much I'll just say one thing, Popovich > D'Antoni. :)
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SERIES OVERVIEW
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LJ's View: Overall, this is going to be a very tough series. In 2005 and 2007, I was supremely confident in the Spurs’ ability to overcome the gimmicky Suns. Now, with the acquisition of O’Neal, the Suns no longer rely on gimmicks to win. The Suns have the ability, the personnel, the veteran know-how and the motivation to win this series.
That said, the Spurs definitely are capable of sending the Suns packing once again. It’ll come down to the Big Three playing well, the shooters knocking down their perimeter looks, Bowen harassing Nash and the duo of Oberto and Thomas helping Duncan handle O’Neal and Stoudemire. It won’t be easy, but it can be done.
Believe.
Kori's View: In past years, I wasn't sure that the Spurs could run with the Suns and I was pleasantly surprised to see how well they handled it. This season there is a new wrinkle in the plan in the form of Shaquille O'Neal. And though the Suns have the ability to win the series, they won't.
When it comes down to it, I'll put the Spurs Big The (plus Bowen) against any starting lineup in the league and bet on the Spurs every single time over a seven game series (Yes, that includes the Boston Celtics). Don't underestimate the importance of the Spurs playoff experience as a unit and don't doubt their desire to repeat.
Spurs in 6.