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04-20-2008, 10:20 AM
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April 19, 2008

In N.B.A. Playoffs, Everyone Has a Shot, Especially Out West

By HOWARD BECK (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/howard_beck/index.html?inline=nyt-per)

To promote the playoffs, the N.B.A. vertically spliced the faces of eight stars, gave them matching monologues and borrowed the signature line from a 1986 sci-fi film. The ads are compelling, if a little creepy.

LeBron James (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/j/lebron_james/index.html?inline=nyt-per) is fused with Kevin Garnett (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/kevin_garnett/index.html?inline=nyt-per), Jason Kidd (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/jason_kidd/index.html?inline=nyt-per) with Steve Nash and — in the ultimate N.B.A. yin-yang — Shaquille O’Neal (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/shaquille_oneal/index.html?inline=nyt-per) merges with Kobe Bryant (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/kobe_bryant/index.html?inline=nyt-per). And that about captures the uniquely disorienting postseason that opens this weekend.

Rivalries and alliances have been scrambled, along with the familiar power structure. The Eastern Conference’s best team, the Boston Celtics (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/bostonceltics/index.html?inline=nyt-org), was its worst a year ago. The Western Conference’s three dominant powers since 2005 — San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix — are in danger of first-round elimination.

At least six teams in the West have a legitimate shot at the finals, with no clear favorite among them. Boston, which won a league-high 66 games, is the East’s pronounced leader, but will be pressed by Detroit and Cleveland, the last two conference champions.

As the N.B.A.’s quirky-serious ad campaign (derived from the cult classic “Highlander”) notes, “There can only be one.”

Or as Charles Barkley (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/charles_barkley/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the TNT analyst, put it during a conference call: “If the Dallas Mavericks (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/dallasmavericks/index.html?inline=nyt-org) made it to the conference finals, I would not be shocked. If the Suns (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/phoenixsuns/index.html?inline=nyt-org) make it to the finals, I would not be shocked. If they lost in the first round, I would not be shocked.”

Indeed, the bracket in the West is a network executive’s dream, and a coach’s nightmare. There is no predictability in a field in which all eight teams won at least 50 games, an N.B.A. record.

The Los Angeles Lakers (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/losangeleslakers/index.html?inline=nyt-org) (57-25) open as the top seed against the eighth-seeded Denver Nuggets (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/denvernuggets/index.html?inline=nyt-org) (50-32), but the intrigue is spread across the bracket. Five teams — the Lakers, the Spurs (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/sanantoniospurs/index.html?inline=nyt-org), the Mavericks, the Suns and the Utah Jazz (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/utahjazz/index.html?inline=nyt-org) — have made at least one conference final since 2004. Any of those teams, as well as the upstart New Orleans Hornets (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/neworleanshornets/index.html?inline=nyt-org) (56-26), could win the West.

There will, undoubtedly, be some fireworks along the way. The Spurs have had bitter playoff series against the Suns, the Mavericks and the Lakers in recent years. The Lakers and the Suns became playoff rivals over the last two springs.

Kidd, who joined the Mavericks in February, opens against the Hornets and Coach Byron Scott (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/byron_scott/index.html?inline=nyt-per), with whom he clashed when both were with the Nets (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/newjerseynets/index.html?inline=nyt-org) earlier this decade. Kidd, considered by many to be the best point guard of his era, will battle Chris Paul, who could be the best point guard of the next decade.

For pure enmity, however, nothing can beat the rematch of the Suns and the Spurs, who met in an epic conference semifinal series last spring. The Spurs prevailed in six games after the N.B.A. suspended the Suns’ Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for leaving the bench during an altercation. They were reacting to Robert Horry’s vicious slam of Nash, the Suns’ star point guard, into the scorer’s table. There were also two kicking incidents involving the Spurs’ Bruce Bowen, and lots of angry words.

("vicious" ? fuck you, Howard Beck)

“Most people would have thought it would be appropriate if we met in the conference finals,” Nash told Phoenix reporters, “but might as well get it out of the way early.”

There will be one very large new element to the rivalry: O’Neal, the probable Hall of Famer, who joined Phoenix in February. The Suns had San Antonio, and the All-Star forward Tim Duncan (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/d/tim_duncan/index.html?inline=nyt-per), in mind when they acquired O’Neal and paired him with Stoudemire. Between them, O’Neal and Duncan have been on teams that have claimed eight of the last nine titles.

The Mavericks, who lost to O’Neal’s Miami Heat (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/miamiheat/index.html?inline=nyt-org) in the 2006 finals, may be the best seventh seed in N.B.A. history. But it remains to be seen if Kidd, at age 35, can lead Dallas back to the conference championship. To make the finals, the Mavericks will have to beat the Hornets, followed by the Spurs or the Suns and then, most likely, the Lakers or the Jazz.

“It’s time to hoop,” the Mavericks star Dirk Nowitzki (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/dirk_nowitzki/index.html?inline=nyt-per) told Dallas reporters. “And the underdog is not a bad role to be in.”

Only two West teams seem incapable of a deep run: the Nuggets, who are handicapped by erratic play and poor defense, and the Houston Rockets (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/houstonrockets/index.html?inline=nyt-org), who lost center Yao Ming (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/yao_ming/index.html?inline=nyt-per) in February to a season-ending injury. (Then again, the Rockets have beaten the Lakers, Suns, Hornets, Mavericks and Nuggets in the last two months.)
While the West provides the drama, the East should provide the sanity.

Only three teams — Boston, Cleveland and Detroit — can be considered contenders. The bracket’s three bottom teams (Toronto, Philadelphia, Atlanta) have 41 wins or fewer.
The Celtics, who were transformed by trades for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen last summer, should have no trouble with the Hawks. The second-seeded Pistons (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/detroitpistons/index.html?inline=nyt-org), who made the finals in 2004 and 2005, should handle the rebuilding 76ers (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/philadelphia76ers/index.html?inline=nyt-org). The fourth-seeded Cavaliers (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/clevelandcavaliers/index.html?inline=nyt-org), the defending conference champions, open against the Wizards (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/washingtonwizards/index.html?inline=nyt-org) for the third straight year. The rising star Dwight Howard leads No. 3 Orlando against the Toronto Raptors (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/sports/probasketball/nationalbasketballassociation/torontoraptors/index.html?inline=nyt-org).

Reggie Miller (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/reggie_miller/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the former Pacer and current TNT analyst, said every Western Conference series could go six or seven games.

“And I would not be surprised if a team from the Eastern Conference, once they get to the finals, end up winning it,” Miller said, “because these teams in the West are going to be so emotionally drained.”