Pennsylvania Primary

[Nbadan]

How do you think the final delegate count for Pennsylvania will wind up?


http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/newpennvoters.jpg

[Nbadan]

The most accurate polling organization to date in this primary season has it close...

Source: Public Policy Polling
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 2008
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Final Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race


Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Pennsylvania continues to show
an extremely tight race. Barack Obama has a 49-46 lead over Hillary Clinton in the state.

This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had
a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and
Obama was up two three weeks ago.

“With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down
to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58-32
in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”

When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43
advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the
candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

Obama’s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters.
He leads 55-34 with men and 81-12 with African Americans. He has a 50-39 edge with
voters ages 18-29 and 49-41 with those between 30-45.

Public Policy Polling (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042108.pdf)

[Nbadan]

Why Penn. doesn't matter....what the M$M won't tell you..

If these numbers generally hold true, giving each candidate 50% of the undecideds, we'll end up with these delegate counts:

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177

But let's say she does much better.

Give her 56% to 44% in PA: 88 Delegates to 70
Give her 54.5% to 45.5% in IN: 39 Delegates to 33
Give her 43.5% to 56.5% in NC: 50 Delegates to 65

Clinton +177, Obama +168

Ever heard the phrase, Too little, too late?

That leads to the following totals:

Clinton 1685, Obama 1815

Obama leads by 130 in the best case scenario for Hillary on May 6.

Now guess what? After that there are just 220 Pledged Delegates up for grabs, and 308 Superdelegates.

Let's say something crazy happens and Clinton wins the remaining PD's, 130 to 90.

Final Delegate Count without Undeclared Supers:

Clinton 1815, Obama 1905

Obama still wins by 90 delegates. If MI and FL were counted as-is (with Uncommitted vote in MI going to Obama), he would still be ahead by 34 delegates.

In that EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, Clinton would need to win 59.8% of the remaining undeclared Supers, vs 51.3% for Obama to clinch the nomination.

MUCH more likely, however, would be for MI and FL to remain uncounted until there is a nominee. Howard Dean has made it pretty clear that this is the outcome he prefers.

In that case, Clinton needs to overcome a minimum 90-delegate lead among 308 Supers.

So, she'd need 67.9% of them. Obama could clinch it with only 38.6% of them.

-----------

The longer this goes on, the more people will be swayed by the math and the more Superdelegates will jump off the fence and endorse one or the other. Since all the biggest states will have voted by May 6, I expect to see a Superdelegate Landslide soon after North Carolina.

[boutons_]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative bitch and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

[George Gervin's Afro]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative bitch and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

:rolleyes

Obama campaigns the same hillary does and he is for change. Hillary campaigns the way obama does and she is bringing down the party...:rolleyes

you obama guys never cease to amaze me. the same people who call those on the right dumb, stupid, naive are guilty of being dumb, stupid, and naive..3

Man up and admit Obama and Hillary are guilty of the same things.. I can admit that and I support the bitch... Obama says that he is different and campaigns as suhch..yet in PA his campaign is sending out rolling phone calls dragging Clinton through the mud using personal insults.. no media attention yet we have boutons claiming that the 'negative and lying bitch' is bringing down the party.. Boutons he me clear OBAMA HAS A ZERO SHOT TO WIN NOVEMBER AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CLINTON.

[xrayzebra]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative bitch and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

Hmmmmm, guess Rush Limbaughs "Operation Chaos"
worked so well it has boutons in a lather......:rollin

[JoeChalupa]

I see Hillary with a big win in PA that will give her momentum and all the negative against Obama is taking a toll and I think it will lead to a more hostile end to democratic nomination and the great benefactor of it all will be John McCain.

Yes, I'll say it. Right now I see John McCain as the man to beat. As much as conservatives bitched and moaned about McCain winnng the Republican nomination it is now CLEAR proof that he IS the best choice for them. Any other republican wouldn't be doing near as good as McCain in the polls since he, at least IMO, is not a Bush cronie.

I'm still supporting Obama but I see the shift happening to Hillary.

[clambake]

you're picturing boutons covered in lather?

why so gay, ray?

[JoeChalupa]

:rolleyes

Obama campaigns the same hillary does and he is for change. Hillary campaigns the way obama does and she is bringing down the party...:rolleyes

you obama guys never cease to amaze me. the same people who call those on the right dumb, stupid, naive are guilty of being dumb, stupid, and naive..3

Man up and admit Obama and Hillary are guilty of the same things.. I can admit that and I support the bitch... Obama says that he is different and campaigns as suhch..yet in PA his campaign is sending out rolling phone calls dragging Clinton through the mud using personal insults.. no media attention yet we have boutons claiming that the 'negative and lying bitch' is bringing down the party.. Boutons he me clear OBAMA HAS A ZERO SHOT TO WIN NOVEMBER AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CLINTON.

I'm an Obama supporter and I agree with some of your points. The damage to Obama has been done and the republicans are going to use everything that Hillary is and then some.

I wouldn't say Obama has no chance of winning but unless the American voter wises up. Obama had, IMO, no choice but to join Clinton and go negative. There is only so much of being the nice guy can work for you.

WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!

Yeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

[George Gervin's Afro]

Hmmmmm, guess Rush Limbaughs "Operation Chaos"
worked so well it has boutons in a lather......:rollin

ray hush is an entertainer... i heard he was depressed that old newt signed on with pelosi to go green:lol.. hush is caters to the non thinkers of this country.... hence why he's your hero..

[clambake]

hey george, how does hillary have a chance in the end?

don't you think she should exit?

[George Gervin's Afro]

hey george, how does hillary have a chance in the end?

don't you think she should exit?

If she loses today she should quit tonight.

What if she overtakes him in the popular vote? Would that be a consideration when neither candidate can reach the 2,025 delegate vote? I have heard from the oabamaniacs that the Super Delegates should vote different ways.. on one hand I hear that the SD should vote the way their constituents voted.. well that poses a problem because there are SD whose constituents voted for Hillary...

Another issue for the oabams supportes and the Super Delegates.. I have read and heard that "They should vote the way of the will of the people!! "Well that sounds nice but they are silent when the possibility exists that she could win the popular vote.. then what?

So you ask me to decide when she should quit when she could realistically win the popular vote and carry all of the bellweather states... Let's be honest no one ever imagined that this scenerio could occur and at this point she still has a shot to win...

If a person's lifetime goal is to be President then who has the right to force them to quit when there still is a chance? Take Clinton out of the equation and you would probably get many people agreeing that the only person who should be able to decide when they should quit is the person running..

[peewee's lovechild]

If she loses today she should quit tonight.



I agree.

If Hillary doesn't win it today, she needs to let it go.

Today is do or die.

[florige]

I agree.

If Hillary doesn't win it today, she needs to let it go.

Today is do or die.



I'm agreeing with Joe. I think she wins big today and this thing will drag out to the convention. It will take a miracle for Obama to flat out beat her today.

[Kermit]

She's not going to lose. Expect an 8-10% victory for Hillary and more of the same for the next couple of months.

[florige]

She's not going to lose. Expect an 8-10% victory for Hillary and more of the same for the next couple of months.


I think she has as much of a chance winning NC that Obama has winning PA. Very unlikely.

[peewee's lovechild]

I think she has as much of a chance winning NC that Obama has winning PA. Very unlikely.

Yea, that's going to be tough for her.

[xrayzebra]

She's talking convention. And I think she means it. She is in this
thing to the very end.

I heard an interesting theory the other day. She will stay in to
damage Obama to the extent he cant beat McCain. The she will
run again in the next Presidential election. She knows she cant win this time
around but if Obama makes it, she wont be able to run in the
next Presidential because he will go for number two. That is
unless he screws up badly in his first term, then no Dimm would
have a chance.

Sounds screwy, but then it is the Clintons we are talking about!

[JoeChalupa]

She's talking convention. And I think she means it. She is in this
thing to the very end.

I heard an interesting theory the other day. She will stay in to
damage Obama to the extent he cant beat McCain. The she will
run again in the next Presidential election. She knows she cant win this time
around but if Obama makes it, she wont be able to run in the
next Presidential because he will go for number two. That is
unless he screws up badly in his first term, then no Dimm would
have a chance.

Sounds screwy, but then it is the Clintons we are talking about!

I've heard that theory too and I do feel that Hillary is "bitter" since I'm sure at the beginning she was positive she would easily have the nomination wrapped up and never thought Obama would be such a formidable challenger to the throne she so much thought was hers.
It is not like this is McCain's first attempt to win the Republican nomination. I think both Barack and Hillary will run again if either loses the nomination. Barack has plenty of time.

[Nbadan]

What if she overtakes him in the popular vote? Would that be a consideration when neither candidate can reach the 2,025 delegate vote? I have heard from the oabamaniacs that the Super Delegates should vote different ways.. on one hand I hear that the SD should vote the way their constituents voted.. well that poses a problem because there are SD whose constituents voted for Hillary...

How is Hillary going to win the popular vote? Obama is ahead by almost 850,000 votes, even if you counted Michigan (which we won't) Obama still leads by 750,000 votes...so tell us how Hillary can win the delegate vote or the popular vote..

[ClingingMars]

Operation Chaos will cause a complete victory by Hillary. And the election will continue...

- Mars

[Nbadan]

Operation Chaos will cause a complete victory by Hillary. And the election will continue...

- Mars

Operation Chaos is a joke, Rush is a joke...Republicant's should ask themselves why Rush is supporting Hillary while vilifying his own party's candidate...

[Nbadan]

Exit polls, exit polls, exit polls...


5PM EXIT POLL. CLINTON 52% OBAMA 48%

Drudge...

[Nbadan]

Not expecting a stunner in Penn, but...

On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?


Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

Campaign Spot (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/)

[PEP]

I voted for Hillary.

Nobama's support peaks at around 44%. There arent enough blacks to get him to the White House and there's too many whites who wont vote for a black man.

And what about the Hillary or Obama supporters that will stay home or vote for McCain in November? Or do you think think they'll fall in line and vote for the Democratic nominee?

[WalterBenitez]

BTW how race and feminist become an issue in this candidacy?

[Don Quixote]

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative beeyotch and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

That's right. And you need to remember these things when Hillary steals the nomination. You don't have to whore out your vote if she becomes the nominee.

I'd say, still, vote for Obama.

[Don Quixote]

:rolleyes

Obama campaigns the same hillary does and he is for change. Hillary campaigns the way obama does and she is bringing down the party...:rolleyes

you obama guys never cease to amaze me. the same people who call those on the right dumb, stupid, naive are guilty of being dumb, stupid, and naive..3


That's right. And when Obama is in the general election, you remember what a lying manipulating cheat he is. You don't have to give him your vote.

[clambake]

yeah, vote for the guy that emboldens iran even more.

[Don Quixote]

That's right.

If you support Clinton, how can you vote for Obama at all if he is the D-nominee? He will only further embolden Iran.

[Don Quixote]

From National Review Online (Campaign Spot):

If the exit polls are accurate, Hillary's carrying 61 percent of seniors, 55 percent of women, 58 percent of union members, 57 percent ... she ought to be on course for a pretty solid win, much better than the 4 percent on Drudge or trailing, as my source's numbers indicated...

Independents who registered for the Democratic primary split 50-50.

Hillary carrying churchgoers, 59 to 41 percent. If that holds, I could see Obama feeling a little bitter over that.

UPDATE: I know this will shock you, but McCain won the GOP primary.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Bloomberg says one in 10 voters said they switched party registration to vote in the Democratic primary. http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/politics/15960382/detail.html reports a significant uptick in the number of registered Democrats in Westmoreland Co. (near Pittsburgh) over last Nov. I'm not sure how anyone will know how many of these newly registered are actual Democrats, and how many are Republicans. I know that if I were a Pa. resident, I would have switched parties to vote for Hillary (just this once).

[JoeChalupa]

I feel the tide is indeed turning and right now I'll give the edge to Hillary. I still support and feel Obama would be better for the Country but the data coming out of PA is that there are not enough democrats that feel the same way. The questions looming over Obama's head are getting louder and the fact that so many Hillary supporters will not support Obama in the general election spells doom and I feel the super delegates will not let that happen.

[Don Quixote]

But don't let that stop you from voting for your man!

Clinton is a lying, manipulative bee-yotch. You need to vote for who you think would be best. And that means Obama.

[clambake]

"emboldening Iran" is an already "mission accomplished"

[florige]

I feel the tide is indeed turning and right now I'll give the edge to Hillary. I still support and feel Obama would be better for the Country but the data coming out of PA is that there are not enough democrats that feel the same way. The questions looming over Obama's head are getting louder and the fact that so many Hillary supporters will not support Obama in the general election spells doom and I feel the super delegates will not let that happen.



Doomed meaing he will not win the Democratic Nomination? Or the Presidency?

[Don Quixote]

Regardless of who wins the D-nomination, it won't be on the strength of committed delegates or popular vote. This thing is going to the convention and the nominee will be selected by the Super-delegates.

I can't wait to see what the losing team does when their candidate gets shafted. I pray for the good people of Denver when THAT riot breaks out.

[ClingingMars]

Operation Chaos is a joke, Rush is a joke...Republicant's should ask themselves why Rush is supporting Hillary while vilifying his own party's candidate...

the goal of OC is have McCain win. Rush is doing this to HELP McCain.

- Mars

[boutons_]

"good people of Denver when THAT riot breaks out."

there will be not riot. The Dems will destroy themselves as quietly as they will incompetently lose to McFlopPander.

[boutons_]

Clinton's Win in Pennsylvania Leaves Obama Battered, Party Reeling
By David Lightman
McClatchy Newspapers

Tuesday 22 April 2008

Washington - Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania victory means that the Democratic Party's eventual nominee will be badly bruised and could have a tough time rallying the party in the fall.

Clinton on Tuesday once again failed to do well among young and African-American voters, who are growing increasingly alienated from the New York senator. She won with some harsh tactics - too harsh for a lot of Barack Obama supporters.

Obama, on the other hand, stumbled badly. He outspent Clinton by an estimated 3 to 1. He had six weeks since the last primary to ingratiate himself with people he's had a hard time wooing: blue-collar whites, small-town residents and older women. Instead, he once again lost the white vote handily and couldn't put his opponent away.

The momentum that seemed so strong in February, when Obama won 11 contests in a row and seemed on the verge of knocking Clinton out of the race, was all but gone Tuesday.

Also gone, or at least fading, was the feeling among Democratic voters on both sides that either candidate ultimately would be acceptable.

While Democrats remain angry over the Iraq war, the economy and President Bush, they've grown less inclined to accept their favorite candidate's Democratic opponent as a prospective president.

The deepening Clinton-Obama schism became more pronounced after last Wednesday's Philadelphia debate.

Obama backers insisted that their man was treated unfairly when the Illinois senator was asked about his relationship with his former pastor and '60s-era radical Willliam Ayers. They argued that Obama did the right thing by staying gentle in his explanations.

Clinton folks saw the performance differently. They were disturbed that Obama didn't put more distance between himself and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who has suggested that past U.S. actions were partly responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and that the HIV virus was a government plot against people of color.

If Obama gets the nomination, lots of Clinton backers said, they'd give presumptive Republican nominee John McCain a look.

Obama backers said the same, should Clinton be the nominee.

"I love Obama," said Aimee Brace, a Williamsport housewife who switched her registration to Democrat. "He has a real down-to-earth way. If Clinton gets it, I don't know what I'd do. I'd be lost."

Democratic leaders sensed this increasing rupture between the Clinton and Obama camps, and in recent days they've pleaded with the superdelegates who control about 20 percent of the convention votes, and with them, the balance of power.

"I need them to say who they're for, starting now," party Chairman Howard Dean said of the superdelegates last week. "We've got to know who our nominee is."

The surest way to have gotten a quick decision would have been if Obama had won Pennsylvania. That would have instantly dispelled the notion that he lacks appeal in a big diverse state and restore the aura that made him a star in an array of states as different as Vermont, Minnesota, Virginia and Louisiana this winter.

By Wednesday, this thinking went, the media would have been declaring the race all but over and the superdelegates would have had a fresh reason to leap on the Obama bandwagon. He'd be officially anointed this generation's John F. Kennedy, ready to inspire the masses with his vision and vigor.

Instead, the verdict Wednesday will remain the same: Pennsylvania joins the roster of Clinton wins that stretches from Massachusetts and New Jersey on the East Coast to Texas and Ohio in the middle and California in the West.

But Clinton still can't break Obama's hold on black and young voters. He won 92 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls, and between 56 percent and 58 percent of voters under 45.

Similarly, however, Obama can't shake that a lot of whites are uncomfortable with a black as president, as exit polls showed him losing the white vote by 60-40 percent - a consistent trend in recent primaries. Yet Clinton's harsh campaign may be turning Obama's flaws into open wounds that prove difficult to heal by November.

And so, the party is left again in a stalemate without apparent end.

The campaigns now head for May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. North Carolina, where roughly 40 percent of the Democratic voters are black, is expected to be solid Obama territory, but Indiana promises to be less predictable.

The two camps will undoubtedly paint the state as a make-or-break affair, but it offers only 72 delegates. With 2,025 needed to nominate, Indiana's an unlikely game-changer.

So on a day when the Democratic race remains muddled, this much is clear: Obama remains the favorite for the nomination, but it's not a comfortable lead.

======================

With "her one-win momentum" I expect Hillary go as low as possible to destroy Obama, embarrassing and pissing off a lot of non-Repug Americans.

Damn the Dems are fucked up. I'm not a Dem but I sure don't want old McFlopPanderBomber to win.

[101A]

With "her one-win momentum" I expect Hillary go as low as possible to destroy Obama, embarrassing and pissing off a lot of non-Repug Americans.

Damn the Dems are fucked up. I'm not a Dem but I sure don't want old McFlopPanderBomber to win.

Ohio + Texas + Pennsylvania = 3 Wins (Big Wins)

[Nbadan]

...all the more important for the Super-delegates to make their decision now and not let this go to the convention....you want riots, usurp the will of the people...

[Nbadan]

Ohio + Texas + Pennsylvania = 3 Wins (Big Wins)

since when do big states matter more than all states?

[Nbadan]

Despite all the M$M hype about Hillary's big win in Penn, the final result is that HIllary could walk away win a total of 11 more delegates, so that only puts here what? 143 behind!

What a bunch of gullible idiots...

[PixelPusher]

Ohio + Texas + Pennsylvania = 3 Wins (Big Wins)

Some "win"...Obama got more delegates.

[Nbadan]

After holding Hillary's win to a SINGLE digit win in Penn, Obama is only 138 pledged delegates away from the magic number of 1,627, which is 50%+1 of the pledged delegates.

1,627 is fifty percent plus one of the 3,253 democratically selected delegates to the Democratic nominating convention.

Once a candidate has 1,627 of these "pledged" delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the 796 superdelegates overturn the judgment of voters.

And that's NOT going to happen.

Barack Obama is at 1,489 pledged delegates (he gained 73 out of PA according to CBS news)...

[atxrocker]

Some "win"...Obama got more delegates.

mostly due to the flawed caucus processes the great state of texas currently uses. you should see how fucked up the caucus process is here. they don't make it easy to have your say without sticking around a crowded elementary school lunch room for over an hour before participating.

[atxrocker]

"Without Obama, I'd be lost.," said Aimee Brace

:lmao really?

[Don Quixote]

I can see why the D-party implemented the Superdelegates in the first place. The last thing the party wants is for some of the far lefties to nominate someone too radical and unelectable, which is what happened in both 1968 and 72.

Second ... the higher-ups (e.g., Howard Dean) in the party know exactly that the D-party is in deep doodoo right now. They would much rather have had Obama (or Clinton) close this thing out weeks ago, and let the convention be an anointing. Since the race is so close, they know that this thing is going to drag out to the convention, which is amusing for me but I imagine Democrats don't like.

[Don Quixote]

I can't wait for the crackup that will happen when/if Clinton swipes the nomination.

Do not put it past the Clintons!

[ClingingMars]

Clinton may not end up winning, but as long as this is in doubt until the convention, Operation Chaos will be a total victory.

- Mars