Amuseddaysleeper
04-22-2008, 07:26 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?page=ScoutingSunsSpurs-Game2
For fans, looking forward to a Game 2 that mirrors the epic Game 1 double-overtime battle between two terrific teams is why they love the game in the first place. Teams this talented play such entertaining basketball. But for the two coaches, fun is far from their minds right now, because they understand that every little adjustment can help turn the game into a victory or defeat.
The Suns acquired Shaquille O'Neal to help slow Tim Duncan, even though they knew he had become a foul-plagued center. So when he picked up two quick ones, nobody was surprised. But how he did that is to be studied. Yes, Foul No. 1 was likely a flop by Fabricio Oberto, and Shaq knows he is likely to pick up a flop foul at least once per game. But what he can't do is then attempt to draw a charge in the lane because, at best, he's got a 50 percent chance of getting the call he wants. Those are bad odds so early in the game. Shaq must make better decisions on defense as they relate to possible foul calls. He does not need to block shots nearly as much as he needs to take up space inside and force Duncan to take tough shots. Plus, keeping Shaq in the game means Duncan has to exert energy on defense and pay attention to Shaq in the paint ... and perhaps pick up some fouls of his own. I thought the most important stat of the night was that Duncan played 51 minutes and finished with three fouls (Shaq and Amare Stoudemire combined for 76 minutes and 11 fouls).
The Spurs were wise in electing to run off of Phoenix misses, especially when Shaq was in the game. It allowed for their perimeter guys to get involved without worrying about Shaq inside. But in the first half, the Spurs clearly played too fast, taking numerous shots when their feet weren't set or when they received bad passes (a common rule is to shoot when you are open and receive a good pass, but swing the ball on a poor pass). They made the adjustment at halftime and looked more in control on that end of the floor.
The Suns established in the first minute -- in the form of a crushing dunk off a counter spin by Stoudemire -- that they have an inside player just as unstoppable as Duncan. They posted him on the left block with mild success on Duncan, but it's clear that Oberto is overwhelmed by Stoudemire's strength and athleticism. They also opened up space for Steve Nash and Stoudemire to run tight ball screens on the left wing, where Amare could slip to the rim in two steps. The Spurs' weakside defenders must look for those situations and then jump off their man into the lane to clog it up. Stoudemire and Nash are devastating in these situations without more defensive manpower inside, and Duncan just can't recover fast enough from helping on Nash to contest Stoudemire's dunk. This was Phoenix's most effective attack strategy.
When Duncan defended Stoudemire, Phoenix ran a number of atypical actions for him, from weakside screens/middle flashes to staggered screens for Stoudemire to pop out on (normally a play for wing players) since he is an impressive shooter. It didn't serve to slow Duncan's offensive game (or induce him to foul) but over the course of the series, it looks like sound strategy.
Boris Diaw caused problems for the Spurs as well, immediately posting up smaller defenders and scoring or passing for easy buckets. San Antonio may elect to see just how many points he is willing to score, limiting its help efforts and trusting that the pass-first Diaw will not look to take over the game as a scorer. But Diaw is good enough to post big scoring numbers if he's so inclined.
Reports suggest that Nash was battling the flu Saturday, so a healthier Nash may post bigger numbers on Tuesday if the Spurs orient their defense even more toward slowing Stoudemire. Also, Grant Hill averaged 14 points in the 46 wins he played for Phoenix this season, and had only five in Game 1. It is likely we'll see a much more active Hill the rest of the series.
While San Antonio will try to contain Stoudemire, Phoenix still has no answer for Duncan. His 40 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in Game 1 will go down as one of his best performances ever, and that's without even mentioning his late-game heroics from the 3-point line. The Suns have to be concerned that as the game went on, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili found a way to get on track and look ready to start Game 2 in a much better frame of mind.
Phoenix employed a similar strategy toward Duncan as the Spurs did Stoudemire, in terms of post defense: take away the middle and try to contest, not block, the resulting runner/half hook moving toward the baseline. It looked to me that by randomly doubling him they tried to keep him guessing. Bringing the double-team more often, which results in wide-open looks for teammates, is a strategy they may choose to employ in Game 2. In late-game situations, Phoenix needs a more disciplined approach to doubling Duncan, so all five defenders know what is happening, thus not allowing him to find a wide-open teammate next to the rim because a Phoenix defender didn't realize he needed to dive inside and protect the basket.
Also, the Spurs ran Parker off screens after he started the offense, forcing Nash to work more on defense. Smart stuff and something we'll continue to see. Parker needs to be more offensive-minded when he runs back-screen-ball-screen action with Duncan. The Suns stayed with Duncan inside, leaving Parker alone for a shot or drive, which he sometimes missed.
And the Suns now must figure out how to slow Ginobili off his high-flat ball screen attacks and high-post handoffs that he used so effectively in double overtime. Shaq is helpless in those situations and must get help -- he simply cannot slow or stop Ginobili on those plays.
With six players who may one day be in the Hall of Fame (Duncan, Shaq and Nash are certainties; Ginobili, Stoudemire and Parker are real possibilities), each team has three players capable of rising to special heights to claim a victory. Logic suggests that this series will go at least six games, so Phoenix has a very good shot at winning Game 2. But the Spurs are on such a strong postseason roll, and are so confident, while the Suns are reeling a bit after losing a game they thought they had won. It's difficult to beat a team so mentally and physically tough without sharing a similar mentality.
PREDICTION: Spurs win Game 2
For fans, looking forward to a Game 2 that mirrors the epic Game 1 double-overtime battle between two terrific teams is why they love the game in the first place. Teams this talented play such entertaining basketball. But for the two coaches, fun is far from their minds right now, because they understand that every little adjustment can help turn the game into a victory or defeat.
The Suns acquired Shaquille O'Neal to help slow Tim Duncan, even though they knew he had become a foul-plagued center. So when he picked up two quick ones, nobody was surprised. But how he did that is to be studied. Yes, Foul No. 1 was likely a flop by Fabricio Oberto, and Shaq knows he is likely to pick up a flop foul at least once per game. But what he can't do is then attempt to draw a charge in the lane because, at best, he's got a 50 percent chance of getting the call he wants. Those are bad odds so early in the game. Shaq must make better decisions on defense as they relate to possible foul calls. He does not need to block shots nearly as much as he needs to take up space inside and force Duncan to take tough shots. Plus, keeping Shaq in the game means Duncan has to exert energy on defense and pay attention to Shaq in the paint ... and perhaps pick up some fouls of his own. I thought the most important stat of the night was that Duncan played 51 minutes and finished with three fouls (Shaq and Amare Stoudemire combined for 76 minutes and 11 fouls).
The Spurs were wise in electing to run off of Phoenix misses, especially when Shaq was in the game. It allowed for their perimeter guys to get involved without worrying about Shaq inside. But in the first half, the Spurs clearly played too fast, taking numerous shots when their feet weren't set or when they received bad passes (a common rule is to shoot when you are open and receive a good pass, but swing the ball on a poor pass). They made the adjustment at halftime and looked more in control on that end of the floor.
The Suns established in the first minute -- in the form of a crushing dunk off a counter spin by Stoudemire -- that they have an inside player just as unstoppable as Duncan. They posted him on the left block with mild success on Duncan, but it's clear that Oberto is overwhelmed by Stoudemire's strength and athleticism. They also opened up space for Steve Nash and Stoudemire to run tight ball screens on the left wing, where Amare could slip to the rim in two steps. The Spurs' weakside defenders must look for those situations and then jump off their man into the lane to clog it up. Stoudemire and Nash are devastating in these situations without more defensive manpower inside, and Duncan just can't recover fast enough from helping on Nash to contest Stoudemire's dunk. This was Phoenix's most effective attack strategy.
When Duncan defended Stoudemire, Phoenix ran a number of atypical actions for him, from weakside screens/middle flashes to staggered screens for Stoudemire to pop out on (normally a play for wing players) since he is an impressive shooter. It didn't serve to slow Duncan's offensive game (or induce him to foul) but over the course of the series, it looks like sound strategy.
Boris Diaw caused problems for the Spurs as well, immediately posting up smaller defenders and scoring or passing for easy buckets. San Antonio may elect to see just how many points he is willing to score, limiting its help efforts and trusting that the pass-first Diaw will not look to take over the game as a scorer. But Diaw is good enough to post big scoring numbers if he's so inclined.
Reports suggest that Nash was battling the flu Saturday, so a healthier Nash may post bigger numbers on Tuesday if the Spurs orient their defense even more toward slowing Stoudemire. Also, Grant Hill averaged 14 points in the 46 wins he played for Phoenix this season, and had only five in Game 1. It is likely we'll see a much more active Hill the rest of the series.
While San Antonio will try to contain Stoudemire, Phoenix still has no answer for Duncan. His 40 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in Game 1 will go down as one of his best performances ever, and that's without even mentioning his late-game heroics from the 3-point line. The Suns have to be concerned that as the game went on, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili found a way to get on track and look ready to start Game 2 in a much better frame of mind.
Phoenix employed a similar strategy toward Duncan as the Spurs did Stoudemire, in terms of post defense: take away the middle and try to contest, not block, the resulting runner/half hook moving toward the baseline. It looked to me that by randomly doubling him they tried to keep him guessing. Bringing the double-team more often, which results in wide-open looks for teammates, is a strategy they may choose to employ in Game 2. In late-game situations, Phoenix needs a more disciplined approach to doubling Duncan, so all five defenders know what is happening, thus not allowing him to find a wide-open teammate next to the rim because a Phoenix defender didn't realize he needed to dive inside and protect the basket.
Also, the Spurs ran Parker off screens after he started the offense, forcing Nash to work more on defense. Smart stuff and something we'll continue to see. Parker needs to be more offensive-minded when he runs back-screen-ball-screen action with Duncan. The Suns stayed with Duncan inside, leaving Parker alone for a shot or drive, which he sometimes missed.
And the Suns now must figure out how to slow Ginobili off his high-flat ball screen attacks and high-post handoffs that he used so effectively in double overtime. Shaq is helpless in those situations and must get help -- he simply cannot slow or stop Ginobili on those plays.
With six players who may one day be in the Hall of Fame (Duncan, Shaq and Nash are certainties; Ginobili, Stoudemire and Parker are real possibilities), each team has three players capable of rising to special heights to claim a victory. Logic suggests that this series will go at least six games, so Phoenix has a very good shot at winning Game 2. But the Spurs are on such a strong postseason roll, and are so confident, while the Suns are reeling a bit after losing a game they thought they had won. It's difficult to beat a team so mentally and physically tough without sharing a similar mentality.
PREDICTION: Spurs win Game 2