Hack a Shaq and the Law Of Averages

[peacemaker885]

Shaq's carrer freethrow average is about 51% during regular season and 50% during playoffs. If you apply this "law" in this particular application, it would basically mean that if Shaq makes all of his free
throws during this fouling spree, then there is a chance - A CHANCE - that he will miss his freethrows during crunch time. Since he's shooting about 50% at playoffs' he's bound to miss the next few.

This would also work the other way around: if he doesn't make his freethrows then there's the chance that he indeed will make them during crunch time. Everything will even out. At least that's what this law proposes. I guess its in the timing of the strategy that's really critical.

I don't know which is worse: a team that employs this strategy to expose another player's weakness or a player, who's one of the leagues best center, an MVP, an icon to some - but who can't hit his freethrows.

As someone already posted - make your freethrows bitch.

[DDS4]

Only thing I don't like about Hack-a-Shaq is that it kills the Spurs' offensive momentum. It chops up the game and there's no flow for either team.

I expect a rule change in the summer. No way Stern is gonna let this continue.

[coopdogg3]

I doubt there's a rule change. Especially for a player that's about to retire in a year or 2. Already have a rule change for FTs within 6 minutes of a game - that's enough.

[Avitus1]

If there was going to be a rule change it would of came when he was on the Lakers.

[lebomb]

I was laughing when POP went to hack-a shaq in the 3rd quarter....... :lmao

[boutons_]

Pop's hack-a-shaq didn't help or hurt

Shaq hit 5 of 6, instead of his avg of 3 of 6, in those 3 possessions.

Say no hack, in 3 possesions, Suns score 2 or 4 pts.

At most, the 3-possession hacking had max a one-possesion influence on the score.

Biggest effect was slowing the game, and the "drama".

[boutons_]

...

Biggest effect was slowing the game, and the "drama", neither of which helped the Spurs.

[ManuTastic]

I think it's working pretty well. I would a LOT rather take Phx out of their regular offense and make everyone stand around praying Shaq won't brick his throws as usual. It throws THEM off balance, keeps them out of rhythm, and makes everyone quit thinking about how strong Shaq is and instead reminds everyone, including him, that he sucks at something pretty important. Much better to make Phx settle for one awkward point than give up a demoralizing Shaq or Stoudemire dunk.

And he definitely won't make 5 of 6 every time.

In fact, I think a good use of Horry's and Red Rocket's time would be to go in just to foul the big fella.

[AZLouis]

I was laughing when POP went to hack-a shaq in the 3rd quarter....... :lmao

The Suns scored half of their points that quarter thanks to that tactic.

Seemed like Pop was overcoaching at that point.

The Suns couldn't buy a bucket.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Shaq's carrer freethrow average is about 51% during regular season and 50% during playoffs. If you apply this "law" in this particular application, it would basically mean that if Shaq makes all of his free
throws during this fouling spree, then there is a chance - A CHANCE - that he will miss his freethrows during crunch time. Since he's shooting about 50% at playoffs' he's bound to miss the next few.

This isn't how the law of averages works. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, what are the odds it will come up tails on the 11th flip? Answer: 50-50. Most people would answer that the odds are much better than 50-50, but they would be wrong. These are also people who believe that a slot machine is "due for a jackpot" because it hasn't had one in a long time.

Of course we are dealing with human beings, not coins, so it is possible that Shaq's 5-of-6 run will influence his next free throw, because Shaq (unlike a coin) does have memory. But how? Will he be more likely to make it because he is confident he's shooting well? Or will he be less likely because he'll think "I'm due to miss one now" ??

[peskypesky]

even though Snaq made most of the free throws, it completely messed up the flow of the Suns offense and it got into their heads. i thought it was a wild-ass strategy by Pop, a sign of how irreverent he is. he does what he wants cause he knows he's the shit.

[ambchang]

The problem with Hack-a-Shaq is that as a 51% FT shooter, the expected value of the move is 1.02 points per possession. Yet the Spurs have a history of holding their teams to below 51% shooting, or an expected value of less than 1.02 points per possession, therefore it is a bad move to pull it out in crunch time when every possession counts and that there will be no lasting consequences AFTER the hacks.

However, when done in the middle of the game, there are side benefits of stopping the offensive flow of the opposition, undermine the trust between Shaq and D'antoni (especially when Shaq is pulled), give players more time to rest during FT shooting, and perhaps make the Suns loose their composure.

I am not a fan of it, but if it works, then go for it.

[Fabbs]

If he bricks the 1st two or goes 1-2, keep it up.
If he goes 2-2 to start, I like the thought of fouling Shaq every other time.

Otherwise he does seem to get into a bit of a groove if he hits the first two.

Wonder if teams tracking this have posted the stats anywheres?

[peskypesky]

The problem with Hack-a-Shaq is that as a 51% FT shooter, the expected value of the move is 1.02 points per possession. Yet the Spurs have a history of holding their teams to below 51% shooting, or an expected value of less than 1.02 points per possession, therefore it is a bad move to pull it out in crunch time when every possession counts and that there will be no lasting consequences AFTER the hacks.

However, when done in the middle of the game, there are side benefits of stopping the offensive flow of the opposition, undermine the trust between Shaq and D'antoni (especially when Shaq is pulled), give players more time to rest during FT shooting, and perhaps make the Suns loose their composure.

I am not a fan of it, but if it works, then go for it.

good analysis.

[SAGambler]

This isn't how the law of averages works. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, what are the odds it will come up tails on the 11th flip? Answer: 50-50. Most people would answer that the odds are much better than 50-50, but they would be wrong. These are also people who believe that a slot machine is "due for a jackpot" because it hasn't had one in a long time.

Of course we are dealing with human beings, not coins, so it is possible that Shaq's 5-of-6 run will influence his next free throw, because Shaq (unlike a coin) does have memory. But how? Will he be more likely to make it because he is confident he's shooting well? Or will he be less likely because he'll think "I'm due to miss one now" ??

And during a free throw, there are a lot more forces at work than in the flip of a coin. You have a human, a basket, a ball that has to get into that basket, and people behind that basket trying the best to get part of your attention. Any one of these things can cause that ball to sail long, short, left or right of the intended target.

[Deimosfobos]

I don't mind doing it when we are down and need any help we can get... but when we are up and hot and the other team is playing like crap... it's stupid.

[JamStone]

The NBA should and I suspect will change the rule.

[SpursWoman]

The NBA should and I suspect will change the rule.


Yeah, it is kind of like picking on the retarded kid. It's not very nice. :lol

[Indazone]

Superman got his kryptonite!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The NBA should and I suspect will change the rule.

If they didn't change it when he was on the Lakers, it ain't going to happen now when Shaq's fixing to hang them up.

The other thing people are overlooking about last night is that we had Tim and Tony on the bench at that point. When you factor all the stoppage in with the end of the quarter time, they probably got a good 10-15 minutes of rest.

[Spurminator]

I don't think we're employing it at near the level it has been employed in the past against Shaq. We intentionally fouled him once in the first game and three (?) times last night. Id' be surprised if the NBA felt the need to address it, but I'd also be okay with it if they did... particularly when the fouls are off the ball.

[ThriveForFive]

I think it'd be awful for the league to change the rule. Why reward a player who's been in the league for 15 years but is too lazy to practice free throws?
I honestly think the tactic worked great last night as it kept the Suns role players from getting in any kind of rhythm while Amare and Nash were on the bench.

[AdmiralFan4Life]

I LOVE hack a shaq. Take a run and gun team and make them stand around between possesions. Suns are a team of runs to say the least. Sure we had alot of transition pts but we can score in the half court just as easy. Even if Shaq makes everyone the main guys aren't getting into a groove. Anyone else see how Stoudemire went cold in the 3rd? Could this be the reason why? Hack a shack all you want. PS how are they gotta make off the ball fouls illegal? That is dumb, any other mooch who got as many free throws as Shaq does would eventually get better. But oh well.

[Indazone]

They should just sit Shaq down and play Stoudamire at Center and Play Grant Hill more minutes. Then they can run again.

[Jimcs50]

Pop did it more to rest his players. It was not like they needed to stop
Phoenix from scoring at that time. They had scored 2 pts in a little more than 7 1/2 mins at that time.

[bdictjames]

Only thing I don't like about Hack-a-Shaq is that it kills the Spurs' offensive momentum. It chops up the game and there's no flow for either team.

I expect a rule change in the summer. No way Stern is gonna let this continue.
We have two of the best players in the NBA who can get into the paint in Manu and Tony.

Duncan gets passes from Manu/Tony and converts it to easy layups.

IMO Spurs won from hack-a-Shaq. We even extended our lead IMO, its better than giving the Suns a field goal in which they would make 50% of the time.:flag:

[JamStone]

If they didn't change it when he was on the Lakers, it ain't going to happen now when Shaq's fixing to hang them up.


It's not just about Shaq. It's about disrupting the flow of the game. It's about actually beating the other team based on skill and effort rather than missed free throws. Shaq isn't the only star who is a poor free throw shooter. Teams will do it to Dwight Howard in the future. And there will be other players as well. It's not just about Shaq. It just takes away from the game, in my opinion.



I think it'd be awful for the league to change the rule. Why reward a player who's been in the league for 15 years but is too lazy to practice free throws?

It would be similar to making a rule that says when players are in the paint area, they can only score if they dunk the ball. If it's a lay-up or floater or hook shot, the basket doesn't count. Why reward players who can't dunk?

Being able to intentionally foul a player that isn't even touching the ball to force him to shoot free throws is not in the spirit of competition.

Let's make another rule that players can't dribble with their shooting hand. Why reward players who can't dribble with their off hand?


I understand why Pop is doing it. It's well within the rules and it's giving the Spurs a better chance to win. I still don't like the rule. And, I'm willing to bet if Spurs fans rooted for a team that it was being done to as opposed to the team using it to their team's benefit, most of them wouldn't like the rule either.

[dbreiden83080]

Shaq made what 5 out of 6 in that 3rd qtr, i was yelling in the game thread about that, i did not agree with it. Spurs had played incredible defense that Qtr, Shaq gets fired up when you do that.

[Pero]

It would be similar to making a rule that says when players are in the paint area, they can only score if they dunk the ball. If it's a lay-up or floater or hook shot, the basket doesn't count. Why reward players who can't dunk?


Hmm, because dunking depends on size/athleticism and it's still 2 points whether you dunk or lay the ball in, while free throw shooting can be learnt and you can miss or hit?




Being able to intentionally foul a player that isn't even touching the ball to force him to shoot free throws is not in the spirit of competition.


Yes that's true.



Let's make another rule that players can't dribble with their shooting hand. Why reward players who can't dribble with their off hand?

This comparison is just weird.

[Pero]

If Shaq is able to shot free throws 5/6 sometimes, he should also be able to do it at other times. And that doesn't mean twice per season or something. :lol

[timvp]

I don't get why all of a sudden people want a rule change against Hack-a-Shaq. Hack-a-Shaq has been around for a decade. Why all of a sudden put a stop to it now?

I don't like it but it'd be lame to outlaw it just because Hack-a-Shaq actually kinda worked for once. No team has beaten a Shaq led team by employing Hack-a-Shaq. Luckily, D'Antoni seems willing to pull Shaq instead of letting him get on a roll from the line.

[RussN]

I think it's working pretty well. I would a LOT rather take Phx out of their regular offense and make everyone stand around praying Shaq won't brick his throws as usual. It throws THEM off balance, keeps them out of rhythm, and makes everyone quit thinking about how strong Shaq is and instead reminds everyone, including him, that he sucks at something pretty important. Much better to make Phx settle for one awkward point than give up a demoralizing Shaq or Stoudemire dunk.

And he definitely won't make 5 of 6 every time.

In fact, I think a good use of Horry's and Red Rocket's time would be to go in just to foul the big fella.


I agree with you about how it throws the Suns off. The Spurs did fine when they were fouling Shaq, it was PHX that couldn't do anything but let Shaq hit those 5 free throws and it totally messed with their offense. Some people have said that the Suns would score 3 or 4 points in 3 possessions, I would say 6 or 7 during a normal Suns hot streak.

[m33p0]

Shaq's carrer freethrow average is about 51% during regular season and 50% during playoffs. If you apply this "law" in this particular application, it would basically mean that if Shaq makes all of his free
throws during this fouling spree, then there is a chance - A CHANCE - that he will miss his freethrows during crunch time. Since he's shooting about 50% at playoffs' he's bound to miss the next few.

This would also work the other way around: if he doesn't make his freethrows then there's the chance that he indeed will make them during crunch time. Everything will even out. At least that's what this law proposes. I guess its in the timing of the strategy that's really critical.

I don't know which is worse: a team that employs this strategy to expose another player's weakness or a player, who's one of the leagues best center, an MVP, an icon to some - but who can't hit his freethrows.

As someone already posted - make your freethrows bitch.
you forget to add a person's fighting spirit which can't be quantified by any form of statistical analysis. isn't that why people are so critical of Hollinger and his beloved PER? besides, its not how many you make, its when you make them.

[JamStone]

I don't get why all of a sudden people want a rule change against Hack-a-Shaq. Hack-a-Shaq has been around for a decade. Why all of a sudden put a stop to it now?

I don't like it but it'd be lame to outlaw it just because Hack-a-Shaq actually kinda worked for once. No team has beaten a Shaq led team by employing Hack-a-Shaq. Luckily, D'Antoni seems willing to pull Shaq instead of letting him get on a roll from the line.


I don't think a rule change would necessarily be for Shaq. It would be for any team that tries to employ it other than late in the fourth quarter. Pop used it in the first half against Brian Skinner. And, then against Shaq in the third quarter while his team was up. It totally disrupts the spirit of competition.

I have no problem with Pop using it since it's within the rules as it is now. I do have a problem with rules that allow it.

[J.T.]

The NBA should and I suspect will change the rule.

The NBA won't change the rule. Using Hack a Shaq puts your team in the penalty faster and opens up the chance for Shaq's team to be extra aggressive and get better shooters to the foul line. There are certain situations when it just makes sense to foul. Shaq has shot FTs poorly his entire career, and if he doesn't want to be on that foul line so much then he should have worked with a shooting coach to shoot foul shots better. There's not much a coach can do other than hope Shaq makes his foul shots or put Shaq on the bench. But like Pop said, Hack a Shaq is a double edged sword because sometimes he'll make 5 in a row. Free throws are a phase of the game and if you look at any box score, the losing team would have won 9 out of 10 close games if they hit more free throws than they did.

This is not some ambiguous rule like the "altercation" rule. It won't get changed, and Suns fans should have seen this coming a mile away when they signed Shaq. Maybe they didn't see the Spurs doing it, since Pop rarely if ever employs Hack a Shaq strategies, but there's no NBA fan that doesn't know Shaq is a poor FT shooter.

[Elraptor]

It's been around for along time, it wouldn't be right to all the sudden just change the rule for it.

[cash459]

...

Biggest effect was slowing the game, and the "drama", neither of which helped the Spurs.

the spurs won...........:wtf

[ajh18]

The problem with Hack-a-Shaq is that as a 51% FT shooter, the expected value of the move is 1.02 points per possession. Yet the Spurs have a history of holding their teams to below 51% shooting, or an expected value of less than 1.02 points per possession, therefore it is a bad move to pull it out in crunch time when every possession counts and that there will be no lasting consequences AFTER the hacks.

As far as I can tell, ESPN has Spurs opponents averaging 1.15 points per shot this year. Now, that doesn't necessarily take a lot of factors into account, most noticably how frequently the other team actually gets a shot out of a possession. But if this is true, and the expected value of hacka-Shaq is 1.02 points, AND if POP thought the Suns were definately going to get a shot up every one of those possessions, you can at least make a statistical case for the strategy.

[Amare_32]

Personally I think the league should make this the rule any team that fouls off the ball should be penalize by allowing the opposing team to chose thier free throw shooter and get the ball back on possesion. That will eliminate this Hack a Shaq,Hack a Ben or Hack a Bowen nonsense.

[Amare_32]

I find it ironic that Spurs fans are defending the use of this tactic but they most likely were screaming bloody murder when Phil Jackson went to Hack A Bowen.

[easjer]

I find it ironic that Spurs fans are defending the use of this tactic but they most likely were screaming bloody murder when Phil Jackson went to Hack A Bowen.

My argument wasn't with Phil for using the technique, it was with Bowen for his shit ft %.

He worked on it and brought it up to a more respectable level after that post-season.

Bruce Bowen gets it.

[statman32]

They should just sit Shaq down and play Stoudamire at Center and Play Grant Hill more minutes. Then they can run again.

Umm Grant Hill has been injured hes pretty much useless out there.

I'm all for Hack a Bowen. Fuck this whole game up. MAKE the league change the rule unless they wont 4 hour games.

[statman32]

The NBA won't change the rule. Using Hack a Shaq puts your team in the penalty faster and opens up the chance for Shaq's team to be extra aggressive and get better shooters to the foul line. T

Not really considering teams only do it late in the quarter and fouls reset every quarter.