Spurs-Hornets by the numbers

[GSH]

There is a lot of speculation ahead of the Round 2 matchup between the Spurs and Hornets, based on what happened in the regular season. The season stats make it look like a pretty even matchup between the two teams. Everyone knows that the Spurs and Hornets finished the season with identical records. Their season series was split evenly at 2 games apiece. The difference between points scored and points given up by the two teams were pretty similar. The Hornets scored 100.85 ppg, and gave up 95.57 ppg. The Spurs scored 95.36 ppg, and gave up 90.57 ppg. The Hornets put up more points, the Spurs play better defense.

But that's the entire 82 game season, against bad teams as well as good. It's a little different picture when you look at how they fared against the premier teams in the league. I compared each team's performance against the better teams in the league - Lakers, Jazz, Celtics, Pistons, each other, etc.

Against the better playoff teams:

The Hornets win percentage was .500.
The Spurs win percentage was .575.

The Hornets scored an average of 93.4 ppg, and gave up 94.7 ppg.
The Spurs scored an average of 93.5 ppg, and gave up 91.75 ppg.

The Hornets won by an average of 12.11 ppg, and lost by 14.65 ppg.
The Spurs win by an average of 11 ppg, and lost by 11.14 ppg.

Even during the regular season, the Spurs played better against good teams. That doesn't determine which team will do better in the playoffs, but it is probably one of the better indicators. The other thing that you begin to see is that the Hornets have gone wild against poor teams that don't play solid defense. That isn't who they will be facing when they play the Spurs.

Playing premier teams during the regular season is one thing. Facing them during the playoffs is another. No team has had more experience, or more success, at that in the last decade than the Spurs. The Hornets are without question a good team. But the Spurs have faced good teams in the playoffs before - most recently in the first round against Phoenix. However good the Hornets are, they didn't face anything like the playoff Spurs during the regular season... including the regular season Spurs.

The Spurs had a couple of bad games against the Hornets during the regular season. And if they have any games like that against them in the playoffs, they will lose. But in a 7-game series, the Spurs defense will wear the Hornets down. The Hornets would like to think otherwise. But even during the regular season, they were only .500 against the premier teams. And they actually scored fewer points than they allowed against those teams.

Giving the Hornets full credit for their season, I'll still say Spurs in 6 games. But it it happens to go to a Game 7, the Spurs experience in the trenches will be the deciding factor.

[reddog 99]

Great info.

The regular season is what we need to forget though. Even with the Spurs more consistent performance it is the ass whoopin's we took. This is now a division rival to be on the radar, and the way the Spurs played in the two out of the latter three games of the season should be cause for concern. Winning by nine is great but not dominating. Winning by 24 and 25 is a statement.

It is time to focus and rise above the hype of CPIII.

:flag:

[Teal Street]

Since the regular season doesn't matter what are the stats for the playoffs?

[Alamo Boy]

did you write all this yourself? if so props

[oboymeetsogirl]

Yeah, but it cuts both ways: neither the Spurs doing well against certain teams nor the Spurs doing poorly against certain teams are any indication of how the Spurs traditionally perform during the playoffs.

The Suns, for instance, did poorly against the Spurs in the playoffs because not only did the Spurs play them differently from the regular season games, they played them differently during each one of their four playoff victories. That's how flexible they are, and why they're built the way they are built. Needless to say, as good a way to get through the playoffs and all the way to the top as any.

[GSH]

did you write all this yourself? if so props

Yes, and thanks.

The Hornets fans, and sportswriters, love to look at the team's stats, but not the ones that matter.

People forget just how scary the Suns' stats have been for the past few seasons. They fly high against the mediocre teams, and run up big numbers. If you look at those numbers, the Spurs are always David vs. Goliath.

The Spurs aren't built to run up regular season numbers. And they don't have to worry about which player is going to stop Chris Paul by himself. That's what team defense is about. What the numbers do show is that the Spurs defense can hold another team down, even the premier teams. Not just for a single game, but consistently, season after season.


Yeah, but it cuts both ways: neither the Spurs doing well against certain teams nor the Spurs doing poorly against certain teams are any indication of how the Spurs traditionally perform during the playoffs.

The Hornets performed much worse against the league's better teams. That doesn't mean that the Spurs automatically win in the playoffs, but it isn't insignificant either. It means the good teams were able to hold them down. And those were 1-off games. In a 7-game series, the Spurs ability to adjust will be yet another advantage they have over the Hornets.

[DespЏrado]

Very nice write up...I agree that if the Spurs show up for this series they will be incredibly difficult for the Hornets to beat.

The Hornets honestly have to hope that the Spurs beat themselves or falter with injury. Or they are going to have to play the very nearly perfect game 4 times in order to end up on top, something only the Mavs have been able to do in the recent past.

[GSH]

Since the regular season doesn't matter what are the stats for the playoffs?

Lots of people on both sides make predictions on how the series will go. I made mine, and I gave the reasons why.

You can go back over to hornetsreport if you want, and get gems like:
Hornets Rule!!! Woof!!!
and, "No one can stop CP3"

Sounds like you're more comfortable without any kind of analysis whatsoever.