Marty Burns on Spurs/Hornets

[ForeignFan]

From Marty Burns

No. 3 Spurs vs. No. 2 Hornets
Season Series: Tied 2-2

• Nov. 9 -- Spurs 97, Hornets 85: Tony Parker had 27 points and eights assists to outduel Chris Paul (18 and seven) in an early-season meeting in New Orleans. Tim Duncan added 24 points and 12 boards.

• Jan. 26 -- Hornets 102, Spurs 78: David West scored 32 points (on 15-of-19 shooting) and Paul added 17 points and 11 assists as the Hornets handed Duncan his worst-ever home defeat.

• Feb. 23 -- Spurs 98, Hornets 89: The Spurs avenged that embarrassing loss of a month before behind Manu Ginobili's 30 points and 12 assists. Paul finished with 27 points, but just four assists.

• March 12 -- Hornets 100, Spurs 75: Paul had 26 points and 17 assists (to go with just three turnovers) and West added 29 points and 10 boards as the host Hornets routed the Spurs for the second time during the regular season.

The Skinny: The NBA's New Kids on the Block meet the Old Guard. The Hornets are in the second round of the playoffs for the first time since the franchise moved to New Orleans in 2003. San Antonio is seeking its fifth NBA title in 10 years. But while the Spurs will have a huge edge in postseason experience, the defending champs are facing a potential nightmare in this matchup.

Led by the sensational Paul, the Hornets racked up the second-best record in the Western Conference during the regular season. They boast a bevy of exceptional shooters, including West and Peja Stojakovic, a strong defense anchored by shot-blocker Tyson Chandler and the kind of youthful legs that could give San Antonio fits. New Orleans also has home-court advantage and is brimming with confidence after dispatching the more experienced Mavs in five games in the first round.

The Spurs counter with their Big Three of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, but they also boast a deep and smart supporting cast along with a masterful coach in Gregg Popovich. San Antonio struggles to score at times, but its defense might be the NBA's best overall. The Spurs contained the high-scoring Suns in the first round, generally protecting the lane and controlling the backboards as they have done so well over the years.

Key Matchup: Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker

Paul, a legitimate MVP candidate this season, averaged 24.6 points, 12.0 assists and only 1.2 turnovers in the first round. The 6-foot floor general can break down a defense in a multitude of ways, using his handle and stop-and-go style to get in the lane at will and set up teammates. Parker is an All-Star in his own right with three NBA titles on his résumé. One of the quickest players in the league and one of the best finishers ever for a guy 6-2, he averaged 29.6 points and 7.0 assists in the series against Phoenix. Parker doesn't have to win this matchup by himself (Bruce Bowen will get the call to defend Paul at times), but he has to attack the rim consistently, knock down open jumpers and make Paul work on defense.

X-Factor for Spurs: Manu Ginobili:elephant

The league's Sixth Man Award winner could be the key for the Spurs, especially because New Orleans has strong counterpoints to Parker and Duncan in Paul and West, respectively. Ginobili's ability to make plays, create offense and hit outside shots figures to be critical against a New Orleans defense that does a good job defending the paint. Matched up against Morris Peterson, he should have room to operate. However, he was relatively quiet in three of the four games during the season series.

X-Factor for Hornets: Tyson Chandler

Though overshadowed by Paul and West, Chandler has delivered for the Hornets all season with his energy, defense and rebounding. The 7-1 center doesn't have much of an offensive game, but he cleans up around the glass and finishes well on the break. Defensively, he blocks and alters shots as well as anybody in the league. If Chandler can stay out of foul trouble :nope and protect the rim like he did against the Mavs, the Spurs could have a difficult time scoring enough to win this series.

The Pick: Paul is scary good, and the Hornets showed in the last round that they could handle the big stage of the playoffs. But New Orleans is facing a much tougher foe in the Spurs, who still possess the game's best big man in Duncan and know how to win in the postseason.
San Antonio in seven.

[GinobiliLooms]

Better the first time I read it forum

[Rummpd]

Spurs in 5 this will not go 7.

[m33p0]

you ain't playing the mavs anymore, kids.

[yeahone]

From Marty Burns

No. 3 Spurs vs. No. 2 Hornets
Season Series: Tied 2-2

• Nov. 9 -- Spurs 97, Hornets 85: Tony Parker had 27 points and eights assists to outduel Chris Paul (18 and seven) in an early-season meeting in New Orleans. Tim Duncan added 24 points and 12 boards.

• Jan. 26 -- Hornets 102, Spurs 78: David West scored 32 points (on 15-of-19 shooting) and Paul added 17 points and 11 assists as the Hornets handed Duncan his worst-ever home defeat.

• Feb. 23 -- Spurs 98, Hornets 89: The Spurs avenged that embarrassing loss of a month before behind Manu Ginobili's 30 points and 12 assists. Paul finished with 27 points, but just four assists.

• March 12 -- Hornets 100, Spurs 75: Paul had 26 points and 17 assists (to go with just three turnovers) and West added 29 points and 10 boards as the host Hornets routed the Spurs for the second time during the regular season.

The Skinny: The NBA's New Kids on the Block meet the Old Guard. The Hornets are in the second round of the playoffs for the first time since the franchise moved to New Orleans in 2003. San Antonio is seeking its fifth NBA title in 10 years. But while the Spurs will have a huge edge in postseason experience, the defending champs are facing a potential nightmare in this matchup.

Led by the sensational Paul, the Hornets racked up the second-best record in the Western Conference during the regular season. They boast a bevy of exceptional shooters, including West and Peja Stojakovic, a strong defense anchored by shot-blocker Tyson Chandler and the kind of youthful legs that could give San Antonio fits. New Orleans also has home-court advantage and is brimming with confidence after dispatching the more experienced Mavs in five games in the first round.

The Spurs counter with their Big Three of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, but they also boast a deep and smart supporting cast along with a masterful coach in Gregg Popovich. San Antonio struggles to score at times, but its defense might be the NBA's best overall. The Spurs contained the high-scoring Suns in the first round, generally protecting the lane and controlling the backboards as they have done so well over the years.

Key Matchup: Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker

Paul, a legitimate MVP candidate this season, averaged 24.6 points, 12.0 assists and only 1.2 turnovers in the first round. The 6-foot floor general can break down a defense in a multitude of ways, using his handle and stop-and-go style to get in the lane at will and set up teammates. Parker is an All-Star in his own right with three NBA titles on his résumé. One of the quickest players in the league and one of the best finishers ever for a guy 6-2, he averaged 29.6 points and 7.0 assists in the series against Phoenix. Parker doesn't have to win this matchup by himself (Bruce Bowen will get the call to defend Paul at times), but he has to attack the rim consistently, knock down open jumpers and make Paul work on defense.

X-Factor for Spurs: Manu Ginobili:elephant

The league's Sixth Man Award winner could be the key for the Spurs, especially because New Orleans has strong counterpoints to Parker and Duncan in Paul and West, respectively. Ginobili's ability to make plays, create offense and hit outside shots figures to be critical against a New Orleans defense that does a good job defending the paint. Matched up against Morris Peterson, he should have room to operate. However, he was relatively quiet in three of the four games during the season series.

X-Factor for Hornets: Tyson Chandler

Though overshadowed by Paul and West, Chandler has delivered for the Hornets all season with his energy, defense and rebounding. The 7-1 center doesn't have much of an offensive game, but he cleans up around the glass and finishes well on the break. Defensively, he blocks and alters shots as well as anybody in the league. If Chandler can stay out of foul trouble :nope and protect the rim like he did against the Mavs, the Spurs could have a difficult time scoring enough to win this series.

The Pick: Paul is scary good, and the Hornets showed in the last round that they could handle the big stage of the playoffs. But New Orleans is facing a much tougher foe in the Spurs, who still possess the game's best big man in Duncan and know how to win in the postseason.
San Antonio in seven.



that match up is like the frist season of S.S.O.L

[wildbill2u]

One more mountain to climb. Ain't this Western Conference fun?

[Jimcs50]

Spurs sweep or win in 5 because they get lazy in one game.

[Teal Street]

All the pressure is on the Spurs to repeat. Thay are favored, They are the Champions but lets get one thing straight, These two teams are very familiar with each other and no one is sneaking up on anyone. In fact, The players are good friends especially Parker and Paul. David West has studied Tim Duncan and its obvious when you look at his game. If San Antonio had HCA I would be inclined to agree with this writer, however they do not and I do not expect the Hornets to give up that advantage. They will be playing confident and with a chip on their shoulder. Heres to a great series:toast
Hornets in 7

[Extra Stout]

Spurs won't dispatch New Orleans easily, but they will dispatch them.

[MoSpur]

I usually like his stuff. I thinkt the Spurs will will in six. It may take seven though. I hope they don't underestimate the Hornets.

[FromWayDowntown]

Playoff series are about individual matchups when there are clear mismatches (Parker attacking Nash; Paul attacking Kidd). Absent clear mismatches, they're about attention to details -- switching and rotating correctly on defense; attention to the boards; closing out on shooters.

In their two wins against the Spurs this year, the Hornets have shot 54.3% and 58.7% from the floor; the Spurs shot 41.8% and 42.9% in those games. In their two losses against the Spurs this year, the Hornets have shot 43% and 44%; the Spurs have shot 51.9% and 48.1% in those games. We'll see if percentages near or above 55% are games that are repeatable for the Hornets; if they are, they'll win.

In any event, I don't think there's a clear mismatch anywhere on the floor in this series; I'd argue that the closest might be Ginobili on any of the Hornets wings, but that depends on Manu being Manu, and I'm not sure he's there at this point.

While Paul/Parker will grab the headlines in this matchup, I think the difference in the series is going to come from how well the Spurs defend the three-point line (Peja and Pargo) and how well the Spurs can rebound the ball. Paul might get his, but I can't see that Paul is suddenly going to figure out how to defend Parker, either (In 11 career games against Paul, Parker is averaging 17.2 ppg (in just 32 minutes per game) on 54% shooting). Duncan will be pressed a bit by the Hornets bigs -- particularly if Chandler can keep his incessant whining about calls on the floor (when Hornets fans complain about Duncan's whining, they might consider how their big man deals with officials) -- but West isn't going to get many 15-19 from the field nights against the Spurs, either.

[Harry Callahan]

Did the Spurs have some of their big three out of the NO games in the RS? I thought Manu or Tony missed some time against them.

[FromWayDowntown]

Did the Spurs have some of their big three out of the NO games in the RS? I thought Manu or Tony missed some time against them.

Nope. All 3 of the big 3 played in all of the games against NO this year.

11/9 -- Parker 39 min., Duncan 36 min., Ginobili 32 min.
1/26 -- Parker 31 min., Duncan 34 min., Ginobili 27 min.
2/23 -- Parker 30 min., Duncan 38 min., Ginobili 37 min.
3/12 -- Parker 34 min., Duncan 33 min., Ginobili 31 min.

[1Parker1]

Excellent analysis, FWD :tu Maybe You should write for SI. :lol

I generally agree that there aren't that many mismatches the Spurs can really take advantage of in this series. One big difference I think Paul will encounter, which he didn't in the series against Dallas, is that he's going to have to play at BOTH ends of the floor and that may take away some of his dominance. Against Dallas, he didn't have to do much against Kidd allowing him to expend a lot of his energy on offense and grabbing steals.

David West may actually turn out to be the biggest mismatch in this series, esp with Ginobili injured. Spurs don't have anyone who can really defend him, unless Udoka manages somehow.

[Cry Havoc]

How can people expect their bigs to be effective this series against Duncan and KT? We limited Amare and Shaq. We're going to limit Paul, at least somewhat. I have to think that we can handle anyone on their team.

[FromWayDowntown]

I generally agree that there aren't that many mismatches the Spurs can really take advantage of in this series. One big difference I think Paul will encounter, which he didn't in the series against Dallas, is that he's going to have to play at BOTH ends of the floor and that may take away some of his dominance. Against Dallas, he didn't have to do much against Kidd allowing him to expend a lot of his energy on offense and grabbing steals.

David West may actually turn out to be the biggest mismatch in this series, esp with Ginobili injured. Spurs don't have anyone who can really defend him, unless Udoka manages somehow.

Oh, I think that if West becomes problematic, Duncan slides over and the Spurs work from there. I don't know that we'll see West and Duncan matched against each other much on the Spurs' defensive end in the early portions of games, so if West is a mismatch favoring the Hornets, Duncan should be a mismatch favoring the Spurs. Ultimately, though, I think the disparity between Duncan and West (or Parker and Paul) is much smaller than the potential disparity between Ginobili and whomever the Hornets might try to put on him -- if, again, Manu is healthy.

I do think Paul is going to have to work harder in this series than he did against Dallas, but I'm not sure he's going to face the double teams that Dallas sent at him, either. I just can't see Pop running too many doubles at Paul, given the other ways in which the Hornets can get things done offensively. The premium for the Spurs has to be, I think, to really contest shots and not let the guys around Paul to get off -- that's particularly true of Peja from behind the arc. Peja has been very hot-and-cold against the Spurs in past years, but if he gets going in this series, he gives the Hornets a big 3 on the offensive end and makes it easier for them to work their inside-out game and for Paul to create havoc.

[VoiceofReason]

How can people expect their bigs to be effective this series against Duncan and KT? We limited Amare and Shaq. We're going to limit Paul, at least somewhat. I have to think that we can handle anyone on their team.

Amare disappeared, and Shaq ain't quite what he used to be. Besides, Chandler and West have different games.

[VoiceofReason]

I do think Paul is going to have to work harder in this series than he did against Dallas, but I'm not sure he's going to face the double teams that Dallas sent at him, either. I just can't see Pop running too many doubles at Paul, given the other ways in which the Hornets can get things done offensively. The premium for the Spurs has to be, I think, to really contest shots and not let the guys around Paul to get off -- that's particularly true of Peja from behind the arc. Peja has been very hot-and-cold against the Spurs in past years, but if he gets going in this series, he gives the Hornets a big 3 on the offensive end and makes it easier for them to work their inside-out game and for Paul to create havoc.

You guys have a very good coach, and I don't think he wants to double CP3. That likely creates more problems than it solves. I think you're better off having guys stick with their man and relying on whomever is guarding Paul to step up their defense.

[FromWayDowntown]

You guys have a very good coach, and I don't think he wants to double CP3. That likely creates more problems than it solves. I think you're better off having guys stick with their man and relying on whomever is guarding Paul to step up their defense.

Again, I think the biggest problem that Paul creates is his ability to both score and distribute. If there's a way to make him one-dimensional, that's the course to be taken in dealing with him. It's an oversimplificiation, but I think the best way to do that is, as you say, to challenge the other Hornets to make contested shots or to move the defense to create looks. If it's Paul that's getting shots for his teammates, you're done.

I don't by any means think that the Spurs will contain Chris Paul -- he's too good for that -- but they have to make things difficult for him as a distributor -- the way they did with Nash in '05 and again in the first round this year. Even just an incremental drop in assists can make a huge difference.

[JWest596]

IMO,The best indication of success will be shown by who wins the second game. If the Spurs have won either the first or get the second game or both away in New Orleans, then this series will be pretty much pre-determined. If New Orleans wins both, then the HCA factor really kicks in and this series will be a drag out dog fight which I doubt will happen. The only x-factors are injuries and how they play which doesn't favor the Spurs as their ability is severely lessened. Pop adjusts and prepares the team and on the fly very well for playoffs and knows how to push buttons. Spurs in 5/6 in all probability.

[Rummpd]

Where is ESPN and others on the predictions?

My call - Spurs in 5. I do not see this Hornets team as dangerous as the Suns were or as motivated to get by Spurs. They will get a title someday, just not this year.

[Louae]

Maybe facing the Hornets might not be as bleak as it appears.



No. 3 Spurs vs. No. 2 Hornets
Season Series: Tied 2-2

• Nov. 9 -- Spurs 97, Hornets 85: Tony Parker had 27 points and eights assists to outduel Chris Paul (18 and seven) in an early-season meeting in New Orleans. Tim Duncan added 24 points and 12 boards.


Tue, Nov 06 San Antonio at Houston 81-89
Wed, Nov 07 Miami at San Antonio 78-88
3rd game in 4 nights, but this was only the 6th game of the season and we were at home for the back end of that stretch.



• Jan. 26 -- Hornets 102, Spurs 78: David West scored 32 points (on 15-of-19 shooting) and Paul added 17 points and 11 assists as the Hornets handed Duncan his worst-ever home defeat.


Wed, Jan 23 L.A. Lakers at San Antonio
Thu, Jan 24 San Antonio at Miami
3rd game in 4 nights. Were on the road and traveled home for the third game.



• Feb. 23 -- Spurs 98, Hornets 89: The Spurs avenged that embarrassing loss of a month before behind Manu Ginobili's 30 points and 12 assists. Paul finished with 27 points, but just four assists.


Tue, Feb 19 Charlotte at San Antonio 65-85
Thu, Feb 21 San Antonio at Minnesota 100-99
We had a day break between every game and were on the road for all these games. Impressive win for us on the road.



• March 12 -- Hornets 100, Spurs 75: Paul had 26 points and 17 assists (to go with just three turnovers) and West added 29 points and 10 boards as the host Hornets routed the Spurs for the second time during the regular season.


Sun, Mar 09 San Antonio at Phoenix 87-94
Mon, Mar 10 Denver at San Antonio 103-107
3rd game in 4 nights. Another home game that had a back to back road trip. Tough stretch.

[kskonn]

Maybe facing the Hornets might not be as bleak as it appears.



Tue, Nov 06 San Antonio at Houston 81-89
Wed, Nov 07 Miami at San Antonio 78-88
3rd game in 4 nights, but this was only the 6th game of the season and we were at home for the back end of that stretch.



Wed, Jan 23 L.A. Lakers at San Antonio
Thu, Jan 24 San Antonio at Miami
3rd game in 4 nights. Were on the road and traveled home for the third game.



Tue, Feb 19 Charlotte at San Antonio 65-85
Thu, Feb 21 San Antonio at Minnesota 100-99
We had a day break between every game and were on the road for all these games. Impressive win for us on the road.



Sun, Mar 09 San Antonio at Phoenix 87-94
Mon, Mar 10 Denver at San Antonio 103-107
3rd game in 4 nights. Another home game that had a back to back road trip. Tough stretch.



that is some good research. for the spurs 3 games in 4 nights with a back to back has always made a big difference. i can not wait for this series to start.

[florige]

Where is ESPN and others on the predictions?

My call - Spurs in 5. I do not see this Hornets team as dangerous as the Suns were or as motivated to get by Spurs. They will get a title someday, just not this year.



I'm sorta around the same line of thinking that you're on. The Suns came in with a chip on their shoulder from last year, and were HIGHLY motivated to spank us. Even though I think game 1 pretty much did the Suns in, they still had their chances outside of game 1's craziness and still could not get it done. The reason New Orleans concerns me is I don't know much about them. I didn't get to watch any of their games when we played them this year so I cannot comment. But I can't think that Paul would be that much better of a pg than we saw in Deron Williams last season in the playoffs. Williams pretty much had his way with us and we still dispatched of them in 5 games. The difference being that we had HCA.

[T Park]

Another thing to remember is Kurt Thomas only played in one of these games.

The third time they played New Orleans I believe was Kurt's first game with the team and sat on the bench.


I remember that home game vividly and the score was not indicative of the game itsself, the Spurs spanked em pretty good.

Take that game film out and see what you did Spurs :lol

[Princess Pimp]

Spurs in 5 this will not go 7.

Yeah right!

[oboymeetsogirl]

If the Spurs find ways to minimize Paul's touches and disrupt his passing lanes -- obviously, the Spurs' strength -- it's going to be a short series. Writers are always hedging their bets, talking about six, seven game series. We'll know quickly enough in New Orleans how long this series will last.

But the way I see it: the times the Spurs have had to play longer series in the recent past were when they were playing against veteran teams (the Pistons, the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, etc.) with incredible coaches who know how to make the adjustments.

So this is why, on paper, things don't look so good for the Hornets. They're a little young. Even the idiot sportswriters and television talking heads know this. Scott has coached in the finals twice before, but with severely short handed Eastern Conference quality teams. As a player, Scott has experienced the ups and downs, the ebbs and flows of postseason rounds (I'll never forget the way the Celtics used to manhandle the Lakers one night, and then the way the Lakers would run the Celtics out of the gym the next night).

But like I said before, it's not Scott, Worthy and Magic running the break in New Orleans. It's the Hornets led by a 22 year old wunderkind. So we'll know soon enough how this one will go...

[GSH]

You guys have a very good coach, and I don't think he wants to double CP3. That likely creates more problems than it solves. I think you're better off having guys stick with their man and relying on whomever is guarding Paul to step up their defense.

I'm laying this comment off on the fact that this is all new to you guys. Don't worry, if your team can keep it up for a couple of more years, you'll probably get the hang of it.

The Spurs don't put five guys on the floor playing 1-on-1, and banging their chest every time they score. I know that may sound like a radical idea, but just look at all the hardware. There must be something to it.

[Galileo]

this won't go seven.

The Spurs will win game one to start things off, and finish off the Hornets in 5 or 6 games.

[Teal Street]

The best thing about these kind of remarks is their bump ability come crow time.