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kaponodynasty
05-03-2008, 11:32 PM
http://celtics.realgm.com/articles/356/20080503/what_if_boston_goes_down.../


What If Boston Goes Down...
Authored by Andrew Perna - May 3, 2008 - 8:05 pm

The Boston Celtics are in quite a quagmire heading into their Game Seven battle with the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday afternoon. The NBA’s best team from the regular season has been pushed to the limit by the team with the worst record of all the league’s sixteen playoffs clubs.

Boston jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven series against Atlanta, but the momentum shifted once the Hawks returned home to Georgia for Games Three and Four.

After Atlanta’s first victory in Game Three of the series, the overwhelming belief in Boston and around the NBA was that the Hawks had their fun and that the Celtics would “wake up” and put the nail in the coffin once the two teams took the floor for the next game.

The Hawks proved they meant business by coming out on top in Game Four, a contest they trailed by ten points heading into the fourth quarter. But even after notching consecutive wins against a team that went 66-16, pundits and fans alike still didn’t give Atlanta the credit they seemed to have earned.

These are the Celtics. Not only a historically clutch team, but one of the most experienced (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) squads in the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta is unquestionably more athletic than Boston, but traditionally all that has meant in the postseason is a shocking victory or two, nothing more. However, tradition isn’t always the rule as we saw last May when the Warriors shocked the Mavericks in what was instantly called the biggest playoff upset in NBA history.

Golden State’s recent claim to fame won’t even last a season if the Hawks are able to walk into Boston on Sunday and eliminate the heavily-favored Celtics in seven games.

It’s easy enough to peg the Celtics as winners on their home turf heading into the deciding game, but isn’t that exactly what was done following each of the Hawks’ first two victories?

Atlanta is for real, this much has been proven, whether they advance to face the Cavaliers or hit the golf course following Sunday’s battle in Beantown.

While trying my best to prognosticate the series between Boston and Atlanta before the playoffs kicked off two weekends ago, I felt as though the Hawks’ talent was enough of an advantage to earn them a win, but that was it.

Sure, Mike Bibby earned a fair amount of postseason experience from his days with the Kings, but how could this team, who starts a rookie at center and relies on younglings like Marvin Williams and Josh Childress to provide substantial supporting roles, stand toe-to-toe with a team that features three Hall of Famers?

A fortnight later it seems rather simple.

Atlanta has adapted well to the Celtics, while at times Boston has had difficultly matching up with the lower-seeded Hawks. After averaging 98.2 points in the regular season, Mike Woodson’s crew has scored a playoff-pace 90.6 a game in their now-epic battle with Boston. While Atlanta hasn’t exactly shut the Celtics down – the C’s are averaging only a point less in the playoffs – they have embedded themselves into the nightmares of an entire city.

These six games have been a microcosm of Atlanta’s season, during which they went 37-45.

Boston has been rather consistent throughout the series, give or take a key missed three or botched offensive play with the game on the line, but the Hawks have looked like completely different teams on occasion.

In their three losses Atlanta averaged 81 points, while scoring 100.6 per game during their trio of wins. I know what you’re saying, a team is obviously going to score more points when they win, but the same startling variance in production hasn’t plagued Boston.

The C’s scored 103.3 points in their three victories during the series, while notching an average of 95 in their defeats. The scoring differentials (Atlanta’s 19.6 to Boston’s 8.3) are indicative of the veteran presence the Celtics possess and the youthful enthusiasm, which can be both detrimental and beneficial, that the Hawks embody.

Both teams have tight rotations, with Woodson playing eight guys substantial minutes (Acie Law, the eighth man, has played just eight minutes a contest) and Doc Rivers marching out the same number of guys with regularity, despite his much-deeper bench.

In Boston, the pecking order has remained the same – aside from Pierce leapfrogging Garnett as the team’s leading scorer – as Rondo joins the ‘Big Three’ as the fourth double-digit scorer on the roster. Such consistency was expected from the Celtics, but not from their opponent.

Al Horford may have lost to Kevin Durant in the Rookie of the Year voting, but he has certainly bested the legendary lore of the ‘rookie wall’. He is averaging 12.8 points and 11.2 rebounds on 52% shooting against Boston, numbers that are considerably better than his regular season stats (10.1, 9.7, 49%) across the board.

It’s obvious that for a team like these Celtics to get ousted in the first round, their foe must be a formidable one. We may not have known just how ready these young Hawks were for postseason battle two weeks ago, but just as the Mavericks got more attention for choking than the Warriors got for excelling last year, Boston will be looking not only to advance on Sunday, but also avoid humiliation.

Golden State was a winning team in 2006-07, and featured a roster full of seasoned performers. Baron Davis brought ample playoff experience to the table, as did Stephen Jackson (a title with San Antonio) and Al Harrington. In addition, it was forecasted that the fast-placed Warriors might pose a problem for Dallas, who like Boston went into their first round series with the league’s record and as a favorite to win the title.

Maybe it was the green hue that has been sprinkled on the league this season, or Atlanta’s losing record, but there didn’t seem to be a matchup Boston couldn’t exploit before this seven-game relationship began.

That all changed when, ironically, the inexperienced Hawks outplayed the Celtics in three close games in a seven-day period.

If the Hawks come out victorious on Sunday, you can forget about the failed experiments in Phoenix (Shaquille O’Neal) and Dallas (Jason Kidd).

The Suns and Mavericks made last-ditch efforts to try and give themselves a better shot at the title in February, but the Celtics seemed to secure their chances last summer with the additions of Garnett and Allen. Bowing out in the first round wouldn’t just place an embarrassing mark on their historic 66-win season, but it would also allow a season to pass by as their window of opportunity starts to close.

When the 2008-09 campaign kicks off Pierce will be 31, Garnett will be 32 and Allen will have turned 33-years old. ‘The Aging Three’ missed just twenty-two games combined this season, but as another year of abuse weakens their Hall of Fame bodies, success and relative health will not be guaranteed the second time around.

Of course, a win in Game Seven at home would free the Celtics from such frightening thoughts. However, should the ball bounce the way of the Hawks, the hangover could linger on quite a bit longer than even a fierce competitor like Garnett could imagine.

Just ask Dirk Nowitzki and his Mavericks, who now seem headed for major changes.

manufor3
05-03-2008, 11:33 PM
already read it, but nice article. i really like andrew perna's articles.

Bob Lanier
05-03-2008, 11:40 PM
Is "younglings" really a word?

Red Hawk #21
05-04-2008, 12:48 AM
The Hawks will win by 40, book it.

Findog
05-04-2008, 02:42 AM
C'mon Hawks, let us and the Supes off the hook

Budkin
05-04-2008, 02:43 AM
No way they are losing game 7 at home. No way.

Findog
05-04-2008, 02:44 AM
No way they are losing game 7 at home. No way.

I'm sure the refs will give them 50 FTAs and remove all doubt and uncertainty, but you never know. That's why they play 'em.

SpursFan0728
05-04-2008, 03:38 AM
IF Boston lost,

NBA will lose around $40 million of revenue
so Stern won't let that happen

Allanon
05-04-2008, 05:02 AM
Great series by the Hawks, major respect to a team I've always thought of as a big whatever. All those lottery years have resulted in a very talented team. Still should have drafted Chris Paul or DWill but.... just saying.

I'd be sad to see the Lakers vs Celtics matchup vanish but by the way they're playing, it doesn't look like they'll make it out of the east anyways.

I'll be rooting for the Hawks tomorrow, best series in the East so far.

manufor3
05-04-2008, 07:55 AM
IF Boston lost,

NBA will lose around $40 million of revenue
so Stern won't let that happen

so true...

m33p0
05-04-2008, 09:26 AM
... you'd hear a collective sigh of relief coming from the general direction of dallas, texas.

Indazone
05-04-2008, 10:16 AM
GO HAWKS!! I believe! Lets knock off those Celtics.

Deuces88
05-04-2008, 11:19 AM
You know the reason Hawks get so many FTA is because they are an inside team. They will drive in, take the hits and score. Boston is a jump shooting team. Ray Allen probably won't even get to the line. The only people I see getting to the line often in Boston is Pierce and maybe Garnett.

If Hawks can continue to penetrate hard and often (get your minds out of the gutters), they have a legitimate chance of winning.

ElNono
05-04-2008, 11:23 AM
I hear Stern is going to be one of the 3 officials...

Findog
05-04-2008, 11:25 AM
... you'd hear a collective sigh of relief coming from the general direction of dallas, texas.

:lol

Red Hawk #21
05-04-2008, 11:30 AM
God if the Hawks could somehow win this game....

scampers
05-04-2008, 11:45 AM
Still, if the Celtics manage to pull through, beat Cleveland (and Cleveland can be pesky if they play at 100%), and then get through Detroit (providing Detroit plays halfway decent to beat the Magic), and THEN win the trophy... well, that'd be a damn impressive playoffs run.

I don't see it happening. The Hawks have just made Boston's playoff run extremely long and hard. They may beat the Hawks today, but I think this series will have taken it's toll on the Celtics. If Cleveland takes them to 6 games or more, the C's will probably have a good chance of tanking in the ECF providing the Magic doesn't make it there. And I'm all for having someone other than Detroit tank in the ECF for once.