Mr.Bottomtooth
05-14-2008, 10:05 PM
2008 NBA Mock Draft, Version 7.1 (Pre-Lottery Edition)
14th May, 2008 - 8:48 pm
By Christopher Reina
In the final mock draft before the lottery, this will be the last time players are selected based on best player available status of the slot instead of team need. The team drafting in the slot is not taken into consideration whatsoever.
Heat
1. Derrick Rose
Point Guard. Memphis
Scoring big men are extremely rare and Michael Beasley fits that category in spades, but even more rare are point guards of Derrick Rose’s caliber. Furthermore, point guards as good as Rose are almost never on bad teams while even a Kevin Garnett struggled to make the playoffs on a talent depleted team.
Rose creates wide-open shots with his dribble penetration, as there is nobody in the world he couldn\'t beat off the dribble. Making them look almost routine, he attempts and completes circus passes, but he completes simple and effective passes as well if the situation calls for them.
With good lift and a fluid release, he is already a much better shooter than people realize or give him credit for. It will take him a few seasons to become a 40% 3-point shooter, but he has it in him and he will always be excellent in the mid-range.
His rebounding instincts are superb and he will certainly be an elite NBA rebounder at his size and position. He has good elevation and attuned timing even putting back some of his own misses.
His anticipation on defense is extraordinary. He does well to get into the passing lanes and aggressively looks to swat shots when helping on players in the post.
Rose seems strong enough already to be a 35 minute a night professional player. His shoulders are broad, and his strength is evident on both ends of the floor.
HOF: 80% All-Star: 90% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Sonics
2. Michael Beasley
Power Forward. Kansas State
Very explosive in the post, Beasley is NBA-ready to bang and score. He scores at a tremendously effective rate despite the constant collapse of double-teams when he touches the ball. He’ll shoot a turnaround fadeaway jumper if his man sags off, and he’ll dribble into a spin move if his man gets too close. He can finish with his right hand within five feet and has outstanding awareness of where he is on the floor.
He should easily be a better scorer in his rookie season than what we saw from Kevin Durant and I believe he will have a better career than him due to his inside/outside game and superior ability on the glass.
HOF: 75% All-Star: 90% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Wolves
3. Jerryd Bayless
Combo Guard. Arizona
We’ve seen quite a few shooting guards masquerading in the bodies of point guards in recent seasons and I think that’s what we’ll eventually see from Bayless. He does have point guard abilities but at best he will be a scoring point.
What has and will be the most immediately impressive aspect of his game is his extreme elevation on jumpers. It really is extraordinary and makes it possible for the 6-3 guard to be a shooting guard. He is a remarkable shooter off the dribble, but his play without the ball has been an unexpected bonus. He works hard without the ball and comes off screens, catches the ball and shoots in one fluid motion. Because of the elevation, he is able to spot an open teammate while in the air and get him the ball for an easy lay-up.
He has excellent vision and draws fouls especially well when he penetrates. He does, however, need to become a more efficient and imaginative passer when penetrating. Bayless also has the athleticism to play quite a bit of Monta Ellis-style off guard.
HOF: 40% All-Star: 75% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Grizzlies
4. O.J. Mayo
Shooting Guard. USC
In an NBA in which very few players can create their own offense, Mayo will be elite (as long as he is not guarded by Russell Westbrook).
He creates separation off the dribble to generate space to get his jumper off, but what is more impressive and refined is his knack for preserving his dribble, squaring up in a triple-threat position with purpose and intent. He is able to back defenders up with jab steps, which sets things up for when he does put the ball on the floor, where he is highly imaginative, utilizing a wide array of moves to score.
Though shorter and slightly less athletic than both Jordan and Bryant, Mayo is headed for this type of individual career.
HOF: 30% All-Star: 70% Starter: 95% Rotation Player: 99%
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Knicks
5. Brook Lopez
Center. Stanford
I’m not sure if he will have the strength and athleticism to do this so easily in the NBA, but the way he seals his man and gets his body ready to immediately score while a pass is on its way is remarkable. This anticipation allows him to score before off-ball shot blockers and sagging perimeter defenders can come to assist his man.
His touch around the hoop out of the post is terrific and is of course something that can’t be taught.
What he lacks in athleticism, he does make up in agility. He has great balance for a player of his size with a very strong physical core and is well-conditioned.
HOF: 8% All-Star: 35% Starter: 85% Rotation Player: 98%
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Clippers
6. Marreese Speights
Power Forward. Florida
With impeccable strength, athleticism and balance, there may not be a power forward prospect in college basketball outside of Michael Beasley who is more NBA-ready, yet also shows enough room for improvement to develop into an All-Star.
His conditioning has been an issue and he is typically limited to short floor stints, but it is due to how amazingly active he is on both sides of the floor and at all times. Speights’ in-game work ethic is as impressive as any player on any level.
HOF: 10% All-Star: 55% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 97%
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Bucks
7. Anthony Randolph
Power Forward. LSU
The aspect of Randolph’s game that jumps out at any observer is how skilled he was at triggering LSU’s transition game. After collecting a blocked a shot or rebound, Randolph will use his remarkably quick dribble for a player of his height to initiate their early offense. He will look to create his own shot, find an open teammate, or slow it down to setup the halfcourt offense. His decision-making in this area is very mature.
In the halfcourt, Randolph has shown equal sophistication in the post as he has on the pick and pop/pick and roll. Randolph has excellent vision as a passer in the post. He finds open spot-up shooters and has the physical tools to deliver passes to the opposite side of the floor if need be.
When Randolph comes out to the perimeter to set a screen, he shows an ability that you wouldn’t really expect from an 18-year-old. His footwork could use some polish, but he pops into space well and is extremely confident (almost too confident because he needs to reel in his shot selection a bit) with his shot. He has good form and consistently hits shots from 10 to 18 feet out.
As he nears the rim, Randolph attacks the rim as well as anyone. He is slinky long and doesn’t fear going to the rack on anyone.
HOF: 15% All-Star: 40% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 85%
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Bobcats
8. Russell Westbrook
Combo Guard. UCLA
Westbrook may very well be the best athlete in this year’s draft and is probably the best defender. He won the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year award over senior Kyle Weaver and teammate Darren Collison. He is a lockdown, suffocating on-ball defender and will be so immediately upon his arrival in the NBA. He is so quick laterally and is also incredibly strong. Westbrook will also be a very good help defender, particularly as a shotblocker at the guard position.
He needs to reel in many aspects of his offensive game, but he has shown flashes of great sophistication as a shooter, dribbler and passer. He can create space off the dribble for his jumper and can also beat his man to get into the lane at will where he is a superb finisher. When he gets the ball into the paint, he is patient and controlled.
His closing speed when he gets closer to the basket is more impressive than any other player in this draft and he is already a YouTube dunk legend. He will never be a great perimeter shooter, but he should become a mid-range star in the Dwyane Wade mold if he just relaxes his mechanics slightly.
HOF: 12% All-Star: 45% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 95%
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Bulls
9. Danilo Gallinari
Small Forward. Italy
Gallinari has nice athleticism though he sometimes labors a little bit in the air. But his feel for the lane and ability to handle the ball, especially in the open floor, is really exceptional. He is 6-9, but plays like a point guard at times. He has the ability and confidence to play three positions on the NBA level, as well as a little point forward.
He is one of the most instinctive players in this entire draft.
His shot is above average and improving, but is sometimes a little slow and lazy with it. The creation of his own shot will likely prove difficult and his halfcourt buckets will come primarily from the pick and roll, spot-ups and curling off screens. His available options are far more plentiful in transition and early offense.
HOF: 4% All-Star: 20% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 85%
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Nets
10. D.J. Augustin
Point Guard. Texas
Augustin is preposterously quick and nimble with the dribble, maintaining it effectively to create shots for himself and teammates with his gunslinger mentality. He would have struggled in the Derek Harper hand-check era, but he should be an effective NBA point guard in the way Tony Parker and Chris Paul have become All-Stars.
He is fearless in the air and is never reluctant to make a big play in clutch situations.
He is an extremely safe pick for any team (particularly an up-tempo Western Conference club) looking to draft a point guard in the middle of the first round.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 35% Starter: 85% Rotation Player: 99%
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Pacers
11. Eric Gordon
Shooting Guard. Indiana
With his exceptional handle in the halfcourt, Gordon generates separation from his defender and particularly is infatuated with the step back jumper. His jumper is world class for a player of his age: it is very fluid, his release is high and is quite compact. His range comfortably extends to about 25-feet.
Not just a perimeter shooter, he is equally content to drive to the basket when defenders try to take away his jumper. He gets deep into the paint after shaking defenders with remarkable change of pace moves, invites and even generates contact and is strong enough to finish despite a hard foul. Strong and agile, he has the ability to contort his body and get his shot off.
His height and weight are two issues that will plague him and slightly limit his ceiling. He is too short to be a true shooting guard, and Gordon fully realizes he will have to develop into a point guard at the NBA level. Scoring guards of his height like Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas and Ben Gordon are all athletically superior to Gordon, though like a Carmelo Anthony, he is exceptionally ‘basketball athletic,’ especially with the ball.
Ultimately, the imperative for Gordon’s career (and draft value) will be if he can consistently score against long NBA defenders.
HOF: 10% All-Star: 45% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 95%
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Kings
12. DeAndre Jordan
Center. Texas A&M
Jordan is a long ways away from being an effective professional basketball player, but his size and athleticism reveal a slew of promise. His motor isn’t as good as you’d like to see from a big like Jordan and is perhaps more of a concern than the massive scaffolding that surrounds his game.
He is more of a scorer than a shotblocker/rebounder at this point in his development. He isn’t particularly quick at finding the outlet man upon grabbing a rebound and could become more consistent at boxing out.
Fair or not, we now expect elite freshman to dominate and that was rarely the case for Jordan during his lone season in College Station.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 20% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 95%
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Blazers
13. Darrell Arthur
Power Forward. Kansas
Arthur has a remarkable court awareness as he is almost always in an ideal position on both ends of the floor. He posts with purpose; constantly trying to seal his man and can finish well with either hand. Arthur is also a good passer out of the post and pretty much anywhere else on the floor. His ball-handling does need a great deal of more work.
He is very athletic, sprinting the floor with gusto, beating his man down the floor for easy transition buckets. His jump shot is far from developed, but shows nice promise.
HOF: 3% All-Star: 15% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 85%
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Warriors
14. Joe Alexander
Small Forward. West Virginia
Vanilla Sky is one of the finest athletes and finishers in the entire draft. He is an aggressive leaper and can dunk on people extremely well and the radius of where he can attack the rim extends impressively.
He is very nifty with the ball, using tremendous pre-dribble fakes, spin moves and is elusive to his defender. With great court awareness, he is great with his back to the bucket at the elbow or mid-post.
HOF: 8% All-Star: 30% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 95%
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Suns
15. Donte Greene
Small Forward. Syracuse
Like Beasley, Greene is a 6-9 combo forward with an excellent inside/outside game. He is a very powerful dunker who attacks the rim, but also shoots the 3-point shot well. Because he does shoot the 3-pointer well, he tends to gluttonously fall in love with the shot and force too many very bad attempts. His poor shot selection directly causes his poor shot percentage.
He has good technique on the pick and roll and this will be one of his most valuable assets in the NBA and where the majority of his perimeter shots should come from.
Greene is really good shooting off the dribble and also as a passer, so if he’s encouraged to go to work 20 feet and in, his value will exponentially increase. One final pressing question is how effective will he be when he is not a volume shooter at the levels he was at Syracuse?
I think his Syracuse teammate Johnny Flynn, who decided to return for his sophomore season, will have the superior pro career.
HOF: 9% All-Star: 25% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 85%
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Sixers
16. Kevin Love
Power Forward. UCLA
The aspects of his game that people rave about (passing, low post moves, feel for game), are universally heralded, while the genuine concerns (lack of length, quickness, elevation), are cited with equal passion.
Cut both sides right down the middle and I think that’s where you will find Love; he isn’t a top-five caliber pick (especially not this year) and he won’t be an ineffective bust.
Finally, one area of his skill set that is often overlooked is how phenomenal he will be on the pick and roll/pick and pop. With his wide body, Love’s screens will be more than just an token obstacle and his footwork here is very refined whether it’s rolling to the basket for popping for a shot up to 20 feet away from the bucket.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 25% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 95%
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Raptors
17. Nicolas Batum
Small Forward. France
With ample athleticism, an absurdly long wingspan and well-developed skills in nearly every aspect of the game, Batum could certainly develop into the best scorer on an NBA team. The questions regarding his motor and aggressiveness to dominate appear to be his biggest obstacle between being good and being great.
Batum has NBA range on his effective, albeit flawed jumper, but he is better in the mid-range especially coming off screens and the great balance he has when creating his own shot off the dribble.
Despite his slight stature, he can attack the rim and as his body fills out, he will be able to take advantage of this with greater frequency.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 15% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 70%
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Wizards
18. Javale McGee
Center. Nevada
Though his first step is undoubtedly on the slow side, he is a very athletic 7-footer once he gets moving. Initial looks are to liken him to a classical center, but his ability to pass and shoot from about 15 feet in (though he will shoot from 20 feet) is more reminiscent of a European player than a homegrown American talent with a basketball pedigree.
He is a good finisher, particularly in the open floor. He sometimes mistakes himself as a guard in the body of a center, making behind the back passes, taking step back 3’s, but he gets away with it and has some legitimate guard moves, even in the air
He is ineffective guarding the post one-on-one, both from behind and in front and his overall commitment to defense needs improvement, but he should at least become a good off-ball shotblocker if motivated.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 20% Starter: 40% Rotation Player: 70%
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Cavaliers
19. Ty Lawson
Point Guard. North Carolina
Lawson wasn’t in my previous mock because I expected him to return to school (he still might), but if he stays in he will certainly be a first round pick.
He is a little undersized and injury prone but he is already far more skilled than quite a few starting point guards and as his shot develops, his ability to penetrate and create scoring opportunities will improve exponentially.
HOF: 4% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 95%
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Nuggets
20. Roy Hibbert
Center. Georgetown
Hibbert is one of the best passing big men in this draft. He instinctively knows how to make crisp passes to cutters because of his experience in John Thompson III’s hybrid Princeton offense. His footwork on the pick and roll is very good and he has excellent vision and anticipation for where his teammates and their defenders will be.
He unquestionably struggles against better/taller defenders, but overall is strong with the ball and is effective with his baby hook or even a 10-foot in jumper.
His biggest weakness is unfortunately an incurable one, as it is his hands. Hibbert too frequently must take an unnecessary gather dribble when catching the ball before he goes to the basket.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 95%
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Nets
21. Chase Budinger
Small Forward. Arizona
Because Budinger has little chance of being a lottery pick this season, I believe he had decided to come out due to a fear of slipping out of the first round and guaranteed money in the 2009 Draft. With Bayless gone, Lute Olson back and Brandon Jennings in, Bayless could be a Pac-10 Player of the Year candidate and he could knock out the disappearance criticisms that he has received.
The gains he has made in regards to his ball-handling, defense (particularly help defense) and strength have been substantial. He is a far better all-around player now, though he still has a ways to go to make a sizable impact when not scoring. With his athleticism and skills, I expected him to be the kind of player Joe Alexander is already and the difference between the two is staggering.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 65%
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Magic
22. Brandon Rush
Shooting Guard. Kansas
There may not be a player in this draft who has better balance and body control when in the air. His in-air improvisational skills are remarkable and will make him an above-average transition player in the NBA. An excellent all-around player, his hardware contains just about every basketball skill (shooting, perimeter defense, passing, etc.) imaginable and he should immediately be a useful and versatile wing.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 80%
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Jazz
23. Kosta Koufos
Center. Ohio State
I was surprised to see Koufos declare for the draft and hire an agent, which explains why he was entirely absent from my previous mock, but his special combination of height and skill all but guarantees him a place in the first round.
He has as superb of a face-up game as anyone his size; he can hit step back J’s from 20 feet and his shot is extremely smooth and confident. He is a conscientious and active screener and when he improves his footwork on the pick and roll and pick and pop, he will be a deadly offensive threat.
Physically, he is pretty good running the floor, but his lateral quickness is poor and more significantly, his balance (especially in the post) is not good. He also takes too long to gather himself to finish lay-ups and dunks, leaving himself vulnerable to blocked shots.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 70%
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Sonics
24. Robin Lopez
Forward/Center. Stanford
Robin is obviously the intangibles brother, with his abilities as a rebounder and shotblocker. He is exceptionally quick to the basket for rebounds, especially on the offensive end.
He has glimpses of a refined offensive game with a nice baseline jumper here and a graceful spin move for a lay-up there, but then he’ll get stripped in the post on one possession and badly throw the ball out of bounds on the next.
His athleticism and passion will eventually weigh out though as he polishes his mental consistency on the offensive end.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 25% Rotation Player: 70%
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Rockets
25. Jason Thompson
Power Forward. Rider
When watching how smooth and skilled Thompson can be on game films, it is easy to forget that he is a solid 6-10. His fundamentals and feel for the game are as fine-tuned as any college prospect, but his future raises question marks due to playing in the MAAC.
The competitive workouts will be especially important for Thompson since he will finally be judged against major conference talent and I expect him to be impressive. He will be picked by a playoff team that already has their franchise players, so Thompson will be asked to plug holes at the four and five and be as versatile of a rebounder, shotblocker, passer and 10-foot jump shooter as he truly is.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 5% Starter: 30% Rotation Player: 85%
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Spurs
26. J.J. Hickson
Power Forward. N.C. State
Hickson is a very fundamentally sound power forward prospect with a throwback style of play. His athleticism is average, but he makes up for it with his footwork, work ethic and length.
He would likely be a top-10 pick in 2009, but unlike a Blake Griffin who is staying at Oklahoma for his sophomore season, Hickson hasn’t shown enough prolonged dominance to warrant anything beyond a late first round flier.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 3% Starter: 45% Rotation Player: 80%
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Hornets
27. Davon Jefferson
Combo Forward. USC
His offensive game is varied, as he is adept at scoring off the dribble as well as having an effective mid-range jumper. But what is most notable about Jefferson is his tremendously instinctive knack to be perfectly positioned on put-backs. He will have an excellent offensive/defensive rebounding ratio on the NBA level, giving his team many very valuable second chance points.
Jefferson’s ball-handling skills need much development, but he shows promise especially because of how balanced he is. His ability to get to the basket from the high post is reminiscent of Stephen Jackson. He is almost always effective with the dribble even though it sometimes looks a little sloppy.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 8% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 65%
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Grizzlies
28. Kyle Weaver
Combo Guard. Washington State
Weaver is very long on defense and will be one of the best on-ball shotblockers at a guard position in the NBA. His decision-making is phenomenal, whether it is finding an open man on a dribble drive or his shot selection. He needs to build some strength, obviously, but his biggest adjustment will be no longer relying on finding a play out of nothing when he leaves his feet, something he was often prone to do in Pullman.
His defensive abilities and overall mental toughness will make him an immediate rotation player on a very good team.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 3% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 85%
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Pistons
29. L.R. Mbah a Moute
Small Forward. UCLA
Mbah a Moute doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, but is a very well-rounded player who hasn’t been playing the game nearly as long as much of his competition. He is very smooth and agile with the dribble, but he strongly attacks the lanes and the rim. He works very hard without the ball and is an intelligent player with all the makings of a versatile NBA combo forward.
He is a good on-ball and help defender and he should be skilled enough to guard three positions on the NBA level. He is very quick to loose balls and has a good win rate on 50-50 rebounds.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 3% Starter: 25% Rotation Player: 85%
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Celtics
30. Richard Hendrix
Power Forward. Alabama
Hendrix’s greatest asset is how well he uses his wide frame on the offensive end of floor and his overall footwork. He uses his body to get wide and seal defenders in the post and has extremely soft hands on the catch. Like Brook Lopez of Stanford and Kevin Love of UCLA, Hendrix does much of his work to score in the post before he even receives the ball.
He has great awareness of where he is on the floor and can score in multiple ways, whether with nice touch off the glass with either hand or a power dunk.
He must become a better jump shooter which will make him a more useful player on the mid-post and on the pick and pop.
As you’d expect from a player with his skill-set, Hendrix is an effective passer with great vision and anticipation of everything that transpires on the floor. He is a hard-working, mentally sound player but lacks some of the athleticism and quickness needed for a player of his height to truly excel on the NBA level. A success story like Carl Landry in Houston definitely does help his case, however.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 2% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 80%
31. Wolves: Serge Ibaka-F (TAU Vitoria)
32. Sonics: Shaun Foster-SG (Vanderbilt)
33. Blazers: DeVon Hardin-C (California)
34. Grizzlies: DJ White-PF (Indiana)
35. Knicks: Alexis Ajinca-PF (HTV Hyeres-Toulon)
36. Blazers: Wayne Ellington-SG (Kentucky)
37. Bucks: Courtney Lee-SG (Western Kentucky)
38. Bobcats: Ryan Anderson-SF (California)
39. Bulls: Chris Douglas-Roberts-PG (Memphis)
40. Nets: Jamont Gordon-G (Mississippi State)
41. Pacers: Bill Walker-F (Kansas State)
42. Kings: Robert Dozier-PF (Memphis)
43. Sonics: Nathan Jawai-C (Cairns Taipans)
44. Warriors: Lester Hudson-G (Tennessee-Marin)
45. Kings: John Riek-F/C (Wichendon High School)
46. Jazz: Omer Aski-C (Alpella Istanbul)
47. Spurs: Joey Dosey-F/C (Memphis)
48. Wizards: Sonny Weems-G (Arkansas)
49. Suns: DeMarcus Nelson-G (Duke)
50. Sonics: James Gist-F (Maryland)
51. Mavs: Longar Longar-C (Oklahoma)
52. Heat: Josh Carter-G (Texas A&M)
53. Jazz: Darnell Jackson-C (Kansas)
54. Suns: David Padgett-F/C (Louisville)
55. Blazers: Antonio Anderson-G (Memphis)
56. Sonics: JR Giddens-SG (New Mexico)
57. Spurs: Joe Ingles-F (Melbourne South Dragons)
58. Lakers: Alonzo Gee-G (Alabama)
59. Pistons: Semih Erden-C (Ulker Istanbul)
60. Celtics: Sasha Kaun-C (Kansas)
http://www.realgm.com/src_feature/1235/20080514/2008_nba_mock_draft_version_71_(pre_lottery_editio n)
14th May, 2008 - 8:48 pm
By Christopher Reina
In the final mock draft before the lottery, this will be the last time players are selected based on best player available status of the slot instead of team need. The team drafting in the slot is not taken into consideration whatsoever.
Heat
1. Derrick Rose
Point Guard. Memphis
Scoring big men are extremely rare and Michael Beasley fits that category in spades, but even more rare are point guards of Derrick Rose’s caliber. Furthermore, point guards as good as Rose are almost never on bad teams while even a Kevin Garnett struggled to make the playoffs on a talent depleted team.
Rose creates wide-open shots with his dribble penetration, as there is nobody in the world he couldn\'t beat off the dribble. Making them look almost routine, he attempts and completes circus passes, but he completes simple and effective passes as well if the situation calls for them.
With good lift and a fluid release, he is already a much better shooter than people realize or give him credit for. It will take him a few seasons to become a 40% 3-point shooter, but he has it in him and he will always be excellent in the mid-range.
His rebounding instincts are superb and he will certainly be an elite NBA rebounder at his size and position. He has good elevation and attuned timing even putting back some of his own misses.
His anticipation on defense is extraordinary. He does well to get into the passing lanes and aggressively looks to swat shots when helping on players in the post.
Rose seems strong enough already to be a 35 minute a night professional player. His shoulders are broad, and his strength is evident on both ends of the floor.
HOF: 80% All-Star: 90% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Sonics
2. Michael Beasley
Power Forward. Kansas State
Very explosive in the post, Beasley is NBA-ready to bang and score. He scores at a tremendously effective rate despite the constant collapse of double-teams when he touches the ball. He’ll shoot a turnaround fadeaway jumper if his man sags off, and he’ll dribble into a spin move if his man gets too close. He can finish with his right hand within five feet and has outstanding awareness of where he is on the floor.
He should easily be a better scorer in his rookie season than what we saw from Kevin Durant and I believe he will have a better career than him due to his inside/outside game and superior ability on the glass.
HOF: 75% All-Star: 90% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Wolves
3. Jerryd Bayless
Combo Guard. Arizona
We’ve seen quite a few shooting guards masquerading in the bodies of point guards in recent seasons and I think that’s what we’ll eventually see from Bayless. He does have point guard abilities but at best he will be a scoring point.
What has and will be the most immediately impressive aspect of his game is his extreme elevation on jumpers. It really is extraordinary and makes it possible for the 6-3 guard to be a shooting guard. He is a remarkable shooter off the dribble, but his play without the ball has been an unexpected bonus. He works hard without the ball and comes off screens, catches the ball and shoots in one fluid motion. Because of the elevation, he is able to spot an open teammate while in the air and get him the ball for an easy lay-up.
He has excellent vision and draws fouls especially well when he penetrates. He does, however, need to become a more efficient and imaginative passer when penetrating. Bayless also has the athleticism to play quite a bit of Monta Ellis-style off guard.
HOF: 40% All-Star: 75% Starter: 99% Rotation Player: 99%
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Grizzlies
4. O.J. Mayo
Shooting Guard. USC
In an NBA in which very few players can create their own offense, Mayo will be elite (as long as he is not guarded by Russell Westbrook).
He creates separation off the dribble to generate space to get his jumper off, but what is more impressive and refined is his knack for preserving his dribble, squaring up in a triple-threat position with purpose and intent. He is able to back defenders up with jab steps, which sets things up for when he does put the ball on the floor, where he is highly imaginative, utilizing a wide array of moves to score.
Though shorter and slightly less athletic than both Jordan and Bryant, Mayo is headed for this type of individual career.
HOF: 30% All-Star: 70% Starter: 95% Rotation Player: 99%
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Knicks
5. Brook Lopez
Center. Stanford
I’m not sure if he will have the strength and athleticism to do this so easily in the NBA, but the way he seals his man and gets his body ready to immediately score while a pass is on its way is remarkable. This anticipation allows him to score before off-ball shot blockers and sagging perimeter defenders can come to assist his man.
His touch around the hoop out of the post is terrific and is of course something that can’t be taught.
What he lacks in athleticism, he does make up in agility. He has great balance for a player of his size with a very strong physical core and is well-conditioned.
HOF: 8% All-Star: 35% Starter: 85% Rotation Player: 98%
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Clippers
6. Marreese Speights
Power Forward. Florida
With impeccable strength, athleticism and balance, there may not be a power forward prospect in college basketball outside of Michael Beasley who is more NBA-ready, yet also shows enough room for improvement to develop into an All-Star.
His conditioning has been an issue and he is typically limited to short floor stints, but it is due to how amazingly active he is on both sides of the floor and at all times. Speights’ in-game work ethic is as impressive as any player on any level.
HOF: 10% All-Star: 55% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 97%
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Bucks
7. Anthony Randolph
Power Forward. LSU
The aspect of Randolph’s game that jumps out at any observer is how skilled he was at triggering LSU’s transition game. After collecting a blocked a shot or rebound, Randolph will use his remarkably quick dribble for a player of his height to initiate their early offense. He will look to create his own shot, find an open teammate, or slow it down to setup the halfcourt offense. His decision-making in this area is very mature.
In the halfcourt, Randolph has shown equal sophistication in the post as he has on the pick and pop/pick and roll. Randolph has excellent vision as a passer in the post. He finds open spot-up shooters and has the physical tools to deliver passes to the opposite side of the floor if need be.
When Randolph comes out to the perimeter to set a screen, he shows an ability that you wouldn’t really expect from an 18-year-old. His footwork could use some polish, but he pops into space well and is extremely confident (almost too confident because he needs to reel in his shot selection a bit) with his shot. He has good form and consistently hits shots from 10 to 18 feet out.
As he nears the rim, Randolph attacks the rim as well as anyone. He is slinky long and doesn’t fear going to the rack on anyone.
HOF: 15% All-Star: 40% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 85%
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Bobcats
8. Russell Westbrook
Combo Guard. UCLA
Westbrook may very well be the best athlete in this year’s draft and is probably the best defender. He won the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year award over senior Kyle Weaver and teammate Darren Collison. He is a lockdown, suffocating on-ball defender and will be so immediately upon his arrival in the NBA. He is so quick laterally and is also incredibly strong. Westbrook will also be a very good help defender, particularly as a shotblocker at the guard position.
He needs to reel in many aspects of his offensive game, but he has shown flashes of great sophistication as a shooter, dribbler and passer. He can create space off the dribble for his jumper and can also beat his man to get into the lane at will where he is a superb finisher. When he gets the ball into the paint, he is patient and controlled.
His closing speed when he gets closer to the basket is more impressive than any other player in this draft and he is already a YouTube dunk legend. He will never be a great perimeter shooter, but he should become a mid-range star in the Dwyane Wade mold if he just relaxes his mechanics slightly.
HOF: 12% All-Star: 45% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 95%
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Bulls
9. Danilo Gallinari
Small Forward. Italy
Gallinari has nice athleticism though he sometimes labors a little bit in the air. But his feel for the lane and ability to handle the ball, especially in the open floor, is really exceptional. He is 6-9, but plays like a point guard at times. He has the ability and confidence to play three positions on the NBA level, as well as a little point forward.
He is one of the most instinctive players in this entire draft.
His shot is above average and improving, but is sometimes a little slow and lazy with it. The creation of his own shot will likely prove difficult and his halfcourt buckets will come primarily from the pick and roll, spot-ups and curling off screens. His available options are far more plentiful in transition and early offense.
HOF: 4% All-Star: 20% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 85%
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Nets
10. D.J. Augustin
Point Guard. Texas
Augustin is preposterously quick and nimble with the dribble, maintaining it effectively to create shots for himself and teammates with his gunslinger mentality. He would have struggled in the Derek Harper hand-check era, but he should be an effective NBA point guard in the way Tony Parker and Chris Paul have become All-Stars.
He is fearless in the air and is never reluctant to make a big play in clutch situations.
He is an extremely safe pick for any team (particularly an up-tempo Western Conference club) looking to draft a point guard in the middle of the first round.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 35% Starter: 85% Rotation Player: 99%
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Pacers
11. Eric Gordon
Shooting Guard. Indiana
With his exceptional handle in the halfcourt, Gordon generates separation from his defender and particularly is infatuated with the step back jumper. His jumper is world class for a player of his age: it is very fluid, his release is high and is quite compact. His range comfortably extends to about 25-feet.
Not just a perimeter shooter, he is equally content to drive to the basket when defenders try to take away his jumper. He gets deep into the paint after shaking defenders with remarkable change of pace moves, invites and even generates contact and is strong enough to finish despite a hard foul. Strong and agile, he has the ability to contort his body and get his shot off.
His height and weight are two issues that will plague him and slightly limit his ceiling. He is too short to be a true shooting guard, and Gordon fully realizes he will have to develop into a point guard at the NBA level. Scoring guards of his height like Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas and Ben Gordon are all athletically superior to Gordon, though like a Carmelo Anthony, he is exceptionally ‘basketball athletic,’ especially with the ball.
Ultimately, the imperative for Gordon’s career (and draft value) will be if he can consistently score against long NBA defenders.
HOF: 10% All-Star: 45% Starter: 90% Rotation Player: 95%
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Kings
12. DeAndre Jordan
Center. Texas A&M
Jordan is a long ways away from being an effective professional basketball player, but his size and athleticism reveal a slew of promise. His motor isn’t as good as you’d like to see from a big like Jordan and is perhaps more of a concern than the massive scaffolding that surrounds his game.
He is more of a scorer than a shotblocker/rebounder at this point in his development. He isn’t particularly quick at finding the outlet man upon grabbing a rebound and could become more consistent at boxing out.
Fair or not, we now expect elite freshman to dominate and that was rarely the case for Jordan during his lone season in College Station.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 20% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 95%
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Blazers
13. Darrell Arthur
Power Forward. Kansas
Arthur has a remarkable court awareness as he is almost always in an ideal position on both ends of the floor. He posts with purpose; constantly trying to seal his man and can finish well with either hand. Arthur is also a good passer out of the post and pretty much anywhere else on the floor. His ball-handling does need a great deal of more work.
He is very athletic, sprinting the floor with gusto, beating his man down the floor for easy transition buckets. His jump shot is far from developed, but shows nice promise.
HOF: 3% All-Star: 15% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 85%
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Warriors
14. Joe Alexander
Small Forward. West Virginia
Vanilla Sky is one of the finest athletes and finishers in the entire draft. He is an aggressive leaper and can dunk on people extremely well and the radius of where he can attack the rim extends impressively.
He is very nifty with the ball, using tremendous pre-dribble fakes, spin moves and is elusive to his defender. With great court awareness, he is great with his back to the bucket at the elbow or mid-post.
HOF: 8% All-Star: 30% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 95%
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Suns
15. Donte Greene
Small Forward. Syracuse
Like Beasley, Greene is a 6-9 combo forward with an excellent inside/outside game. He is a very powerful dunker who attacks the rim, but also shoots the 3-point shot well. Because he does shoot the 3-pointer well, he tends to gluttonously fall in love with the shot and force too many very bad attempts. His poor shot selection directly causes his poor shot percentage.
He has good technique on the pick and roll and this will be one of his most valuable assets in the NBA and where the majority of his perimeter shots should come from.
Greene is really good shooting off the dribble and also as a passer, so if he’s encouraged to go to work 20 feet and in, his value will exponentially increase. One final pressing question is how effective will he be when he is not a volume shooter at the levels he was at Syracuse?
I think his Syracuse teammate Johnny Flynn, who decided to return for his sophomore season, will have the superior pro career.
HOF: 9% All-Star: 25% Starter: 70% Rotation Player: 85%
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Sixers
16. Kevin Love
Power Forward. UCLA
The aspects of his game that people rave about (passing, low post moves, feel for game), are universally heralded, while the genuine concerns (lack of length, quickness, elevation), are cited with equal passion.
Cut both sides right down the middle and I think that’s where you will find Love; he isn’t a top-five caliber pick (especially not this year) and he won’t be an ineffective bust.
Finally, one area of his skill set that is often overlooked is how phenomenal he will be on the pick and roll/pick and pop. With his wide body, Love’s screens will be more than just an token obstacle and his footwork here is very refined whether it’s rolling to the basket for popping for a shot up to 20 feet away from the bucket.
HOF: 5% All-Star: 25% Starter: 80% Rotation Player: 95%
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Raptors
17. Nicolas Batum
Small Forward. France
With ample athleticism, an absurdly long wingspan and well-developed skills in nearly every aspect of the game, Batum could certainly develop into the best scorer on an NBA team. The questions regarding his motor and aggressiveness to dominate appear to be his biggest obstacle between being good and being great.
Batum has NBA range on his effective, albeit flawed jumper, but he is better in the mid-range especially coming off screens and the great balance he has when creating his own shot off the dribble.
Despite his slight stature, he can attack the rim and as his body fills out, he will be able to take advantage of this with greater frequency.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 15% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 70%
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Wizards
18. Javale McGee
Center. Nevada
Though his first step is undoubtedly on the slow side, he is a very athletic 7-footer once he gets moving. Initial looks are to liken him to a classical center, but his ability to pass and shoot from about 15 feet in (though he will shoot from 20 feet) is more reminiscent of a European player than a homegrown American talent with a basketball pedigree.
He is a good finisher, particularly in the open floor. He sometimes mistakes himself as a guard in the body of a center, making behind the back passes, taking step back 3’s, but he gets away with it and has some legitimate guard moves, even in the air
He is ineffective guarding the post one-on-one, both from behind and in front and his overall commitment to defense needs improvement, but he should at least become a good off-ball shotblocker if motivated.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 20% Starter: 40% Rotation Player: 70%
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Cavaliers
19. Ty Lawson
Point Guard. North Carolina
Lawson wasn’t in my previous mock because I expected him to return to school (he still might), but if he stays in he will certainly be a first round pick.
He is a little undersized and injury prone but he is already far more skilled than quite a few starting point guards and as his shot develops, his ability to penetrate and create scoring opportunities will improve exponentially.
HOF: 4% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 95%
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Nuggets
20. Roy Hibbert
Center. Georgetown
Hibbert is one of the best passing big men in this draft. He instinctively knows how to make crisp passes to cutters because of his experience in John Thompson III’s hybrid Princeton offense. His footwork on the pick and roll is very good and he has excellent vision and anticipation for where his teammates and their defenders will be.
He unquestionably struggles against better/taller defenders, but overall is strong with the ball and is effective with his baby hook or even a 10-foot in jumper.
His biggest weakness is unfortunately an incurable one, as it is his hands. Hibbert too frequently must take an unnecessary gather dribble when catching the ball before he goes to the basket.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 95%
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Nets
21. Chase Budinger
Small Forward. Arizona
Because Budinger has little chance of being a lottery pick this season, I believe he had decided to come out due to a fear of slipping out of the first round and guaranteed money in the 2009 Draft. With Bayless gone, Lute Olson back and Brandon Jennings in, Bayless could be a Pac-10 Player of the Year candidate and he could knock out the disappearance criticisms that he has received.
The gains he has made in regards to his ball-handling, defense (particularly help defense) and strength have been substantial. He is a far better all-around player now, though he still has a ways to go to make a sizable impact when not scoring. With his athleticism and skills, I expected him to be the kind of player Joe Alexander is already and the difference between the two is staggering.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 65%
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Magic
22. Brandon Rush
Shooting Guard. Kansas
There may not be a player in this draft who has better balance and body control when in the air. His in-air improvisational skills are remarkable and will make him an above-average transition player in the NBA. An excellent all-around player, his hardware contains just about every basketball skill (shooting, perimeter defense, passing, etc.) imaginable and he should immediately be a useful and versatile wing.
HOF: 2% All-Star: 10% Starter: 55% Rotation Player: 80%
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Jazz
23. Kosta Koufos
Center. Ohio State
I was surprised to see Koufos declare for the draft and hire an agent, which explains why he was entirely absent from my previous mock, but his special combination of height and skill all but guarantees him a place in the first round.
He has as superb of a face-up game as anyone his size; he can hit step back J’s from 20 feet and his shot is extremely smooth and confident. He is a conscientious and active screener and when he improves his footwork on the pick and roll and pick and pop, he will be a deadly offensive threat.
Physically, he is pretty good running the floor, but his lateral quickness is poor and more significantly, his balance (especially in the post) is not good. He also takes too long to gather himself to finish lay-ups and dunks, leaving himself vulnerable to blocked shots.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 70%
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Sonics
24. Robin Lopez
Forward/Center. Stanford
Robin is obviously the intangibles brother, with his abilities as a rebounder and shotblocker. He is exceptionally quick to the basket for rebounds, especially on the offensive end.
He has glimpses of a refined offensive game with a nice baseline jumper here and a graceful spin move for a lay-up there, but then he’ll get stripped in the post on one possession and badly throw the ball out of bounds on the next.
His athleticism and passion will eventually weigh out though as he polishes his mental consistency on the offensive end.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 5% Starter: 25% Rotation Player: 70%
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Rockets
25. Jason Thompson
Power Forward. Rider
When watching how smooth and skilled Thompson can be on game films, it is easy to forget that he is a solid 6-10. His fundamentals and feel for the game are as fine-tuned as any college prospect, but his future raises question marks due to playing in the MAAC.
The competitive workouts will be especially important for Thompson since he will finally be judged against major conference talent and I expect him to be impressive. He will be picked by a playoff team that already has their franchise players, so Thompson will be asked to plug holes at the four and five and be as versatile of a rebounder, shotblocker, passer and 10-foot jump shooter as he truly is.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 5% Starter: 30% Rotation Player: 85%
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Spurs
26. J.J. Hickson
Power Forward. N.C. State
Hickson is a very fundamentally sound power forward prospect with a throwback style of play. His athleticism is average, but he makes up for it with his footwork, work ethic and length.
He would likely be a top-10 pick in 2009, but unlike a Blake Griffin who is staying at Oklahoma for his sophomore season, Hickson hasn’t shown enough prolonged dominance to warrant anything beyond a late first round flier.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 3% Starter: 45% Rotation Player: 80%
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Hornets
27. Davon Jefferson
Combo Forward. USC
His offensive game is varied, as he is adept at scoring off the dribble as well as having an effective mid-range jumper. But what is most notable about Jefferson is his tremendously instinctive knack to be perfectly positioned on put-backs. He will have an excellent offensive/defensive rebounding ratio on the NBA level, giving his team many very valuable second chance points.
Jefferson’s ball-handling skills need much development, but he shows promise especially because of how balanced he is. His ability to get to the basket from the high post is reminiscent of Stephen Jackson. He is almost always effective with the dribble even though it sometimes looks a little sloppy.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 8% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 65%
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Grizzlies
28. Kyle Weaver
Combo Guard. Washington State
Weaver is very long on defense and will be one of the best on-ball shotblockers at a guard position in the NBA. His decision-making is phenomenal, whether it is finding an open man on a dribble drive or his shot selection. He needs to build some strength, obviously, but his biggest adjustment will be no longer relying on finding a play out of nothing when he leaves his feet, something he was often prone to do in Pullman.
His defensive abilities and overall mental toughness will make him an immediate rotation player on a very good team.
HOF: .5% All-Star: 3% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 85%
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Pistons
29. L.R. Mbah a Moute
Small Forward. UCLA
Mbah a Moute doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, but is a very well-rounded player who hasn’t been playing the game nearly as long as much of his competition. He is very smooth and agile with the dribble, but he strongly attacks the lanes and the rim. He works very hard without the ball and is an intelligent player with all the makings of a versatile NBA combo forward.
He is a good on-ball and help defender and he should be skilled enough to guard three positions on the NBA level. He is very quick to loose balls and has a good win rate on 50-50 rebounds.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 3% Starter: 25% Rotation Player: 85%
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Celtics
30. Richard Hendrix
Power Forward. Alabama
Hendrix’s greatest asset is how well he uses his wide frame on the offensive end of floor and his overall footwork. He uses his body to get wide and seal defenders in the post and has extremely soft hands on the catch. Like Brook Lopez of Stanford and Kevin Love of UCLA, Hendrix does much of his work to score in the post before he even receives the ball.
He has great awareness of where he is on the floor and can score in multiple ways, whether with nice touch off the glass with either hand or a power dunk.
He must become a better jump shooter which will make him a more useful player on the mid-post and on the pick and pop.
As you’d expect from a player with his skill-set, Hendrix is an effective passer with great vision and anticipation of everything that transpires on the floor. He is a hard-working, mentally sound player but lacks some of the athleticism and quickness needed for a player of his height to truly excel on the NBA level. A success story like Carl Landry in Houston definitely does help his case, however.
HOF: 1% All-Star: 2% Starter: 35% Rotation Player: 80%
31. Wolves: Serge Ibaka-F (TAU Vitoria)
32. Sonics: Shaun Foster-SG (Vanderbilt)
33. Blazers: DeVon Hardin-C (California)
34. Grizzlies: DJ White-PF (Indiana)
35. Knicks: Alexis Ajinca-PF (HTV Hyeres-Toulon)
36. Blazers: Wayne Ellington-SG (Kentucky)
37. Bucks: Courtney Lee-SG (Western Kentucky)
38. Bobcats: Ryan Anderson-SF (California)
39. Bulls: Chris Douglas-Roberts-PG (Memphis)
40. Nets: Jamont Gordon-G (Mississippi State)
41. Pacers: Bill Walker-F (Kansas State)
42. Kings: Robert Dozier-PF (Memphis)
43. Sonics: Nathan Jawai-C (Cairns Taipans)
44. Warriors: Lester Hudson-G (Tennessee-Marin)
45. Kings: John Riek-F/C (Wichendon High School)
46. Jazz: Omer Aski-C (Alpella Istanbul)
47. Spurs: Joey Dosey-F/C (Memphis)
48. Wizards: Sonny Weems-G (Arkansas)
49. Suns: DeMarcus Nelson-G (Duke)
50. Sonics: James Gist-F (Maryland)
51. Mavs: Longar Longar-C (Oklahoma)
52. Heat: Josh Carter-G (Texas A&M)
53. Jazz: Darnell Jackson-C (Kansas)
54. Suns: David Padgett-F/C (Louisville)
55. Blazers: Antonio Anderson-G (Memphis)
56. Sonics: JR Giddens-SG (New Mexico)
57. Spurs: Joe Ingles-F (Melbourne South Dragons)
58. Lakers: Alonzo Gee-G (Alabama)
59. Pistons: Semih Erden-C (Ulker Istanbul)
60. Celtics: Sasha Kaun-C (Kansas)
http://www.realgm.com/src_feature/1235/20080514/2008_nba_mock_draft_version_71_(pre_lottery_editio n)