A look at the Spurs offense in game 6 (Popapologists please check in)

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

This is a continuation of the series.

Game 3:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=94672

Game 4:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=95026

Game 5:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=95194

On to game 6. I missed a two minute or so stretch of the third quarter as me and a couple of buds were downing rounds of shots for the plays of Ime and Manu, so I'd say you're getting about 97% of what went on tonight.
And I shut it down in the fourth once the starters were pulled.

On to the stats...

Plays were broken down into six categories:

1. 4down, defined as any play that put Duncan on the low block, gave him an entry pass (and resulted in a double by the Hornets).

2. Pick and roll, pretty self explanatory.

3. Isolation plays, where the ball was given to a Spur to go one on one against his man, with no screen help or anything coming for him.

4. Motion offense. This is a catchall of sorts, but the Spurs actually have a pretty nice motion offense that they run from time to time (judging on the resuts, I really wish they would run more...).

5. Set inbounds plays. Called plays out of an out of bounds situation for a shot.

6. Transition opportunities. Baskets scored in transition.

All that said, on to the numbers, in the format of successful trips (defined as either a basket or two FTs) - total number of times the play was run.

I only counted the main play that led to a scoring attempt. For example, if we looked for Tim in the 4down look but Chandler had him fronted or pushed too far out, so we reset and ran a pick and roll that got us a shot, that play counted as a pick and roll play.

I realize that probably isn't the perfect way to chart all this, but this whole thing started with the idea of charting the plays that actually led to a shot attempt.

Also, at LJ's suggestion, if a play started out one way and then a second set was run off that (say we started 4down, Tim kicked out, someone set a screen on the ball that resulted in a shot, 4down would still get credit).


1st quarter
-----------
PnR: 9-13 (nine scores on 13 times it was run)
Iso: 1-2
Motion: 1-1
Inbounds: 0-0
Transition: 2-3
4Down: 2-3

2nd quarter
-----------
PnR: 3-6
Iso: 0-3
Motion: 3-4
Inbounds: 0-1
Transition: 0-2
4Down: 4-7

3rd Quarter
-----------
PnR: 6-10
Iso: 0-3
Motion: 1-1
Inbounds: 0-1
Transition: 1-1
4Down: 2-7

4th Quarter (prior to garbage time)
---------------------------------
PnR: 1-2
Motion: 1-1
4down: 1-1

Totals for the game prior to garbage time (% scoring on this play set)
-----------------------------------------
PnR: 19-31 (61%)
Iso: 1-7 (14%)
Motion: 6-7 (86%)
Inbounds: 0-2 (0%)
Transition: 3-6 (50%)
4Down: 9-18 (50%)


So, to put it all in one place..

(didn't start doing this until after game 2)

Pick and roll:

Game 3 (partial): 17-26
Game 4: 18-30
Game 5:14-29
Game 6: 19-31

4Down:

Game 3 (partial): 4-13
Game 4: 5-8
Game 5: 4-25
Game 6: 9-18


Observations:

I've been arguing that too much 4down takes the Spurs offense out of its flow. The players start standing around, and frankly that's what Byron Scott wants.

He wants to protect his one big man in Chandler, 4down accommodates him in that as he can double Tim on the block. It keeps Chandler out of foul trouble from Spurs' perimeter players driving to the rack off the pick and roll and motion.

He's also betting that our perimeter players can't hit enough outside jumpers to win a series against the Hornets. Two games in NO they've done well the first half, cratered the second, and Pop has been happy to play right into Byron's hands with this stubborness.

Some have argued New Orleans just packs the lane and will make us shoot from outside. To that I'd like to point out that we ran pick and roll on 13 of 22 first quarter possessions tonight. We got 13 shots in the paint.

I'm sure there's a few Popapologists who will be along to insist it's all about the Hornets defense and 4down somehow still was the catalyst for this, but come on - we ran pick and roll on 60% of our possessions in the first quarter tonight, scoring on 70% of those possessions. Those numbers are damn near identical to those from game 4 in SA.

The pick and roll sets the tone for the Spurs. It gets New Orleans scrambling defensively. It establishes the mindset the Spurs are not going to be happy to settle for jump shots. It gets Chandler in foul trouble. It starts to grind on Paul physically and wears him down.

And we have GOT to keep it up in game 7. Proportionally speaking, when 4down gets to be a larger percentage of our offense in this series, we're 0-3.

When it's used as a compliment to the pick and roll and the Spurs motion sets, it's deadly.

Other observations on tonight...

We were 1-7 on iso sets. All six of the misses were in the second and third quarters when Tony Parker was trying to prove he was a better point guard than Chris Paul. 4 of the six resulted in either a turnover or Parker getting his ass stuffed in the paint.

In short, knock that shit off Tony. This isn't a Nike commercial. Get yours within the flow of the game, not at the expense of your teammates and the Spurs offense.

The first quarter we did not see Michael Finley or Kurt Thomas. Coincidentally, we ran little 4down, were heavy on the pick and roll, had a ton of ball movement, and were shredding the NO defense.

Second quarter, Finley came in, and our offense came to a screeching halt. And it was compounded by Thomas coming in a short time later.

Finley is a waste of space and shouldn't (IMO) see time in game 7. Give his minutes to Ime. Not only was Udoka playing hella defense, he was dropping everything he shot on offense too. He continues his solid play in this series when given the minutes.

I don't give a shit what salary Finley is playing for, Pop needs to give the finger to this sentimental senior citizen playing time shit and give Ime the run.

There's some strong trends emerging as far as percentage of offensive plays run and how many are 4down vs. other sets for the Spurs, and if the series is any indication, if we run 4down on 30% or higher of our plays in game 7, the Spurs season ends Monday.

So, as I've said before. Fuck 4down.

Disclaimer for the irrational responses these analysis threads have brought so far: Yes, I understand Tim Duncan is our greatest player. Yes, I realize he needs to get some touches. No, I don't think he sucks. I do strongly believe too much 4down has been and will be the death of us if Pop decides to go that way.

And I do want Duncan to get touches on offense, but he can get them on the pick and roll or in the Spurs motion offense. You don't have to kill our offensive flow putting him on the low block every damn time.

Believe in the pick and roll

[E20]

AHF is a little pyschotic over 4down and Spurs offense, take it easy pal. LOL

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

AHF is a little pyschotic over 4down and Spurs offense, take it easy pal. LOL

Yep. Losing sucks and 4down has been the bane of the Spurs offense in this series.

Thank you for your concern.

[Sense]

It's as simple as this...

Spurs penetrate=win.
Spurs pass pass shoot=loss.

[Warlord23]

4 down is not all bad. If the spacing is good and Duncan makes the right decision we get a lot of 3s out of it.

I think you need to calculate points per possession instead of FG% so that open 3 balls out of 4 down get more credit, as well as FTMs on these possessions. I also think you need to count the turnovers instead of simply FGM / FGA

PPP (Points per possession) = (# of 3 FG X 3 + # of 2 FG X 2 + # of FTM)/(# of FGA + # of TO)

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

4 down is not all bad. If the spacing is good and Duncan makes the right decision we get a lot of 3s out of it.

I think you need to calculate points per possession instead of FG% so that open 3 balls out of 4 down get more credit, as well as FTMs on these possessions. I also think you need to count the turnovers instead of simply FGM / FGA

PPP (Points per possession) = (# of 3 FG X 3 + # of 2 FG X 2 + # of FTM)/(# of FGA + # of TO)

Shit, that's a lot of math to do. If I get bored between now and game 7 I'll think about it.

Those numbers aren't just FG attempts that I posted, they include turnovers. I'm essentially counting success of the play. If a play resulted in FTs or a basket, it counted in the successful play category.

Like I said, I don't want us to abandon it, just not run it as the dominant set of our offense.

I don't disagree with you that we get a lot of three point shots out of it, but therein lies the rub - live by the three, die by the three. And in New Orleans, we're way to content to live by three out of 4down, and we've been dying by it.

[timvp]

While I appreciate the leg work, these threads have so much fuzzy math that Al Gore should have to disown the internet. First of all, like I stated previously, Pop has called 4-down about three or four times all series long. Coming out of a timeout, he's never gone to 4-down in this series. Calling out 4-down makes no sense because that play is hardly ever being run.

What is happening is that if play trying to be run gets broken down or the Hornets blitz and take the Spurs out of their looks, the Spurs are left with either an isolation play -- just like every other team in the league. It just so happens that a good percentage of their isolation plays go to their *gasp* best player. Just because Duncan gets the ball on the low block doesn't mean it's 4-down. In fact, about 99% of the time Duncan has gotten the ball on the low block, it hasn't been due to 4-down. It's been due to either the Spurs running their motion offense or the Spurs being desperate after their initial play didn't work.

Oh and uh Parker was attacking Paul because Paul was in foul trouble. Not to get on a commercial or whatever the hell you ranted about.

Bottomline is the Spurs aren't running 4-down so the whole premise of these posts is built on a non-existent foundation. And obviously the Spurs would love for their motion or pick-and-roll sets to work every time but if they don't, players like Duncan and Parker are going to have to try to score. Unless you just want the Spurs to let the shot clock expire if the pick-and-roll or motion is defended well, I don't really get the point of raging against a play that isn't being run.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I know we're not going to agree on this one LJ. I don't have a problem with it being run if all other options break down, as you say.

I have a problem when we monotonously run it play after play after play early in the shot clock. Your insistence that we are running it as a bail out of sorts simply isn't the case, many of our trips Tony is bringing it down the court and throwing it into Duncan right away.

And we're talking semantics about what's actually going on with respect to the play. Whether you want to call it four down or an iso or whatever in the hell you want to call it, going in to Tim Duncan on the low block as the primary offensive play on a possession for the majority of our offensive plays has gotten the Spurs their asses handed to them in three straight games in New Orleans this series.

Call it fuzzy math or an iso set or whatever you want to try and run down the observations of what's going on, but if we force it into Duncan and settle for the three ball in game 7, Marcus is going to be posting his off-season free agency threads starting next Tuesday.