SI: Road To Nowhere In NBA Playoffs

[duncan228]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/steve_aschburner/05/16/home.road/index.html

Road to nowhere in NBA playoffs
by Steve Aschburner
Story Highlights
The home team has dominated the second round of the playoffs
Teams with home-court edge win 75 percent of best-of-seven series
The Celtics could secure an NBA title just by winning their home games

After beating down for most of its existence one hackneyed claim -- Catch the last two minutes of a pro basketball game and you'll see everything you need -- the NBA lately finds itself faced with another that is mixed, poured and already setting up concrete-style right here in the 2008 playoffs:

Check the schedule to see which team is playing at home, and you'll already know who's going to win.

NBA road teams have about as much chance at victory this postseason as traveling parties to King Kong's Skull Island. Twenty of the 21 games played so far in the second round have been won by the home teams. That's 95.2 percent, a success rate that would put a scare into even the greatest road team of all time, the Harlem Globetrotters. In the first round, home teams went 30-14, a .682 clip. That makes it 50 out of 65 overall, or a 76.9 percent chance of sending the fans in attendance home happy while inevitably wringing some of the drama out of what ought to be the best basketball of the year.

Consider the Game 6 clashes Friday night in Cleveland and Utah. With one team in each poised to clinch and advance, and the other fighting for its playoff life, the tension and excitement in the sixth game of any best-of-seven series traditionally rival that found in most Game 7 showdowns. Except that the way the Celtics, in particular, and the Lakers have fared on the road in this round, it seems pretty safe -- for those following along via telecasts -- to skip the first game entirely and, east of the Rocky Mountains, head off to bed at halftime of the nightcap.

We'll be able to do it all over Sunday or Monday, same teams, other guys' buildings.

"If I could figure out what's going on with this home-court stuff, I would bottle it and sell it to the other 29 teams in the league," Hornets coach Byron Scott said after his team's Game 6 loss in San Antonio on Thursday.

After Boston -- 7-0 at home in these playoffs, 0-5 on the road -- beat the Cavaliers in Game 5 on Wednesday, Celtics coach Doc Rivers said: "We're going to get one. I don't know when. It would be great if it's Game 6, but if not, we're going to come back here.''

If not, we're going to come back here. Hmm. Let's just say there have been more fervent rallying cries in sports history.

Home-court advantage is a staple of the NBA game, evident during most regular seasons and significant in most postseasons. Conventional wisdom says that home teams generally win about 60 percent of the time; in 2007-08, that's almost precisely how the home/road continuum played out. In the East, the teams in white were 344-271 this season. In the West, 395-220. Combined, that's 739-491, a winning percentage of .601. Flip that and you get the road team's .399. NBA head coaches even have a counting system to capture the impact during the year, scoring road victories as plus-1 and home defeats as minus-1 to see where they really stand.

In the playoffs, when the buildings get more crowded and more noisy, the home team's fortunes typically improve. Since the NBA went to a 16-team tournament in 1984, home teams have won 66.4 percent of the games. Interestingly, the advantage has been most pronounced in the second round, with a 67.9 percent success rate.

It also is understood that home-court advantage pays off, way more often than not, when it comes to advancing. According to NBA figures, over all of the league's best-of-seven playoff matchups, the teams with the home-court edge have won 280 out of 372 series, a .753 rate.

Still, it never has been taken so literally, with home teams winning and road teams losing quite like this. The most lopsided home/road results in any round since 1984, overall by winning percentage, came in the 1990 conference finals, when the home teams went 12-1 (.923). That postseason, the home clubs won 75 percent of the time.

So what is it this year? Statistical anomaly? An identifiable trend? An influx of wimpy players and coaches? Friendlier officiating at home? A new definition of "traveling violation?'' Probably some combination of the above (though the refs will deny their part).

"It takes a different mental approach to win on the road,'' Raptors coach Sam Mitchell said by telephone Thursday. "You've almost got to like going on the road. You've almost got to like staying in a hotel, flying to those other cities, playing in the other teams' arenas. You've got to like getting out of your comfort zone -- and most players today, most people, don't like getting out of their comfort zones.''

Mitchell talked about great players such as Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Isiah Thomas "embracing'' the challenge of spoiling a home crowd's night by beating its favorite team. But then, we see those Hall of Famers in hindsight, their accomplishments done, their reputations secure, their legends growing. Snap back to now.

"We've got so many young stars in this league right now,'' Mitchell said. "They're still learning how to win on the road. It's not a physical thing. It's not the different arenas. It's just the whole thing of going on the road and feeling like you can win. That's what you get from a veteran team.

"If the Spurs win in San Antonio,'' he said before the Spurs did just that Thursday night, "you've got to think they'll feel like they can win Game 7 in New Orleans.''

But, but, but ... that savvy crew of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Gregg Popovich has been just as susceptible to road woes as anyone lately.

"Well, then it's a mystery,'' Mitchell said.

Fred Hoiberg, assistant general manager of the Timberwolves, was on Indiana and Minnesota teams that went deep into the playoffs and had other thoughts on the trend.

"When you have a sellout crowd, the noise ... and I think the noisemakers are louder in our game, the P.A. systems, the music and all that,'' Hoiberg said. "The veteran teams can usually stop the bleeding, while younger teams have more trouble with it. But right now, you're seeing all the teams -- San Antonio is as veteran a group of guys as you have, winning NBA championships, and you saw how New Orleans' home court affected them the other night.

"It's such an emotional game. When the crowd gets into it, it can really swing momentum. When they got it going in the third quarter in New Orleans the other night, it seemed to give that team confidence. The crowd got into it and San Antonio had a heck of a time just scoring a basket.''

One theory mentioned lately is that the evenness of teams, in quality and competitiveness, has allowed home-court advantage to define more series. Since there aren't one or two dominant teams kicking butt on whatever court they take, intangibles like this can play, and are playing, a bigger role.

Again, that's just a theory. And again, it might not really matter, once one team or another packs the Larry O'Brien trophy away for the summer. So what if they don't have to stuff it in their carry-on luggage?

"People talk about how Boston has struggled on the road, but they've earned the right,'' Hoiberg said. "As long as they continue to play well at home, they're going to win a championship. That's what it comes down to. That's what the regular season was for them. If they protect their home court, they're going to win the whole thing.''

Won't they take a lot of grief in the meantime, though? C'mon, a 16-12 championship record?

"Who cares?'' the Wolves' exec said. "Anyway, I think it would take them winning just one game on the road to give them confidence they can do it. They won, what, 75 percent of their road games during the year?''

That is the potential silver lining in this, of course. If home-court advantage continues to mean more and more in the NBA playoffs, it might crank up the value teams place on securing it, bringing heightened intensity to those doggy January and February games across the league.

[spursfaninla]

Celtics are not as dominant as the regular season seemed in indicate. end of story.

[duncan228]

The HCA articles are everywhere. The last half of this one is the Spurs/Pop.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8141228/Home-is-where-the-wins-are-in-NBA-playoffs

Home is where the wins are in NBA playoffs
by Mike Kahn

The Cleveland Cavaliers started the game great, and finished strong . . . but in between, well, we should have known better with the game being in Boston.

The Utah Jazz hung around all night in Los Angeles. but when it mattered most it looked as if they were playing with a basketball that just came out of the microwave, that's how unglued they were with the ball.

Nobody would dare call any team playing in the conference semifinals of this year's NBA playoffs road warriors. It wouldn't be a misnomer as much as it would be an unadulterated lie.

It only took a moment to sink in what required about five hours Wednesday night . . . when the Cavs lost to the Celtics and the Lakers handled the Jazz again. It was just another confirmation of what coaches love to preach -- the regular season really is of dire importance to earn home-court advantage.

The home team in the conference semifinals this year is a devastating 19-1 entering Thursday's game at San Antonio between the Spurs and Hornets, with it seemingly becoming more difficult in each stop.

The only victory away from home in this round was the Detroit Pistons winning at Orlando in the lone series that required just five games. Otherwise, teams have been winning big at home only to get trounced on the road. Although both the Cavs and Jazz losses Wednesday were by a reasonable seven points, the overall average margin of victory in the second round has been more than 12 points a game.

The best example has been the New Orleans Hornets-San Antonio Spurs series, where the average point differential for the home team has been a whopping 18 points. In their three homes wins, the Hornets have won by 19.7 points. In the two games at San Antonio, they lost by an average of 15.5 points.

What we don't understand is why.

The home team always tends to have the advantage, but not like this. In the first round, the home team had a 30-14 record — the higher seed posting a dominant 21-3 record, which tends to be expected in opening playoff series. It's not a second-round phenomenon either.

Going back a couple of years, it was not this significant. Last season's second round had the home team with a 13-10 record, and in 2005 the home team had a 13-8 record. For some reason, it's just been craziness this time around.

Even for the Celtics, who not only had the best overall record in the NBA this season, but were 31-10 away from home, it has been a chore. They went into Texas and swept the Spurs, Mavericks and Rockets during the regular season, something nobody else in the NBA did this season, but they're 0-5 on the road in the playoffs — 0-2 in their series with the Cavs. They required seven games to get by the 37-45 Atlanta Hawks in the first round and that turned a lot of heads.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers has one explanation of the negative momentum that's more difficult to overcome on the road — even if it is nothing new in any sport.

"Of the five playoff games on the road, we've had it in three of them where good shots or bad shots aren't going in and it carries over to the other (defensive) end," Rivers said. "That can't happen. If they go in great, if they don't go in great . . . just go down and get a stop. You can see the residual of missed shots lead to bad energy on the defensive end."

The Jazz went into the Staples Center Wednesday night supremely confident they could ride Sunday's win in Salt Lake City into a series-changing victory in Game 5. Bench productivity seems to be one of the biggest differences. The Utah bench outscored the vaunted Lakers bench 39-16 on Sunday.

"Our bench stepped up and provided us with a lot of scoring and a lot of energy. We need to take that to L.A.," Williams said. "We're confident now but we still need to prove we can win on the road."

They couldn't do it, and here's one explanation. Utah's reserves still outscored the Lakers bench 18-13 Wednesday night, but the huge advantage at the free-throw line evaporated. Utah was 37-of-45 to Los Angeles' 14-of-25 on Sunday. That was twisted into 34-of-42 for L.A. to 24-of-28 for Utah in Game 5.

Conspiracy theorists could contend that the league wants it that way, thus the free-throw disparity in favor of the home team.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was mystified by why his team was just 12-of-18 from the foul line in Tuesday's 101-79 loss at New Orleans, while the Hornets were 25-of-33. He spoke about that Wednesday afternoon, elaborating on the abuse point guard Tony Parker took during the game with just five free throws, and Tim Duncan went to the line once.

"It's in the eye of the beholder I guess," Popovich said. "There's no gauge to show you on a scale of 1-10 how hard (Parker) got hit, or this or that. One thing we didn't expect was the disparity free throw-wise. We've got to figure out a way to get to the line. Timmy took 18 shots and shot one free throw. They shot 13 free throws in the third quarter. We shot zero. And I thought we were at the rim as much as they were. So we've got to figure out how to get to the line.

"That's not something you expect. You figure that will probably even itself out during the game. That's one of those things that you hope will be pretty much a wash. That's not something we expected. That hurt us not getting to the line."

Actually, Popovich was right on the money about it being a wash until Game 5. The two teams had taken exactly the same number of free throws through Game 4. Chances are, it will even itself out in Game 6 when they return to San Antonio. But that's nothing new either. Huge disparities often occur between home and the road — always have and always will.

Instead of focusing on the disparity, it really comes down to parity. The Pistons just showed more experience, toughness and consistency; which is why they dispatched of the Magic in five games. The other teams are just that close. It's a little hard to believe that the three remaining series will go seven games, but considering the way the first five have gone, it's even more difficult to fathom that the Hornets, Lakers or Celtics will win Game 6 on the road. Besides, three of the four series in 2006 went seven games, so it wouldn't be unprecedented.

And the only team to lose Game 7 at home that year was the Spurs, who succumbed to the Mavericks in overtime.

"The bottom line is the better team wins in a seven-game series," said Popovich, whose club is seeking its fifth NBA title in 10 years and fourth in the last six. "I've always said that, so whoever wins the series it will be because they're a better team."

Or in this particular season, it's the home-court advantage.

[Lakers_55]

Sportswriters have to have something to write about to make themselves look smart. The sample of results here in the 2nd round is simply too small to have a statistical impact on reality. Anyone who ever took a class in statistics knows this. Example; it is possible to toss a coin 8 times in a row and get heads, but in the long run, the results will even out.

What you really have is probably the most competitive playoff season in NBA history. What starts counting most is when a team's back is to the wall; in other words, games 5, 6, and 7. Also, I am surprised there hasn't been a series yet this season where games 1-4 saw HCA shift twice, still ending at 2-2 after four games.

Spurs winning game 7 is about as equal a possibility as a loss. Both teams get to show what they're made of and only one will prevail. All I can say is best of luck to the teams and their fans, and looking forward to playing either one of you on Wednesday.

[duncan228]

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24639247/

Home cookin' has nothing to do with road woes
There are many reasons why visiting teams are 2-21 in these playoffs
By Sam Smith

There's one big surprise of the 2008 NBA playoffs, and it's not that 3-pointer by Tim Duncan in Game 1 of the Spurs-Suns opening-round series.

Actually, the biggest head scratcher in these playoffs has been the remarkable inability of teams — even the best ones — to win on the road.

The Boston Celtics, with the league's best record, failed to win a game in Atlanta in the opening-round series against the only playoff team with a sub-.500 record. San Antonio, this era's NBA dynasty with four championships since 1999, is coming off three blowout losses in New Orleans.

In the conference semifinals, the home teams have won 21 of 23 games with the Detroit Pistons and Los Angeles Lakers the only team to win a road game.

Can't anyone here play this game on the road?

Surprisingly, it doesn't look like it, which doesn't speak well for this era's teams. Great teams win on the road in the NBA. Can you win a championship without being considered a great team? Some team seems on the way to that. The ring still looks good anyway you get it, but if this continues none of the top teams in league history are going to have competition.

But first, a little explanation:

Being better at home has nothing to do with "home cookin'," or sleeping in your own bed, or one of those moronic aphorisms players recite mindlessly to reporters, who then generally shake their heads knowingly as if they've received some sort of secret details of the mysterious world of pro athletics.

More likely, it's a bigger distraction for many players to be home, especially in the playoffs. Then they have to deal with family and friends' ticket requests and when they go home the kids are probably there waiting to play with daddy. Many daddies know they get more sleep and better meals on the road. Plus, it's less likely teams will have much bonding experience or chances to talk as much basketball at home given less time spent together and likely more family responsibilities.

Many around the NBA today see the lack of the same killer instinct on the road as a growing sign of mental weakness among NBA players in this era. The thinking is more players have so much more in terms of money and comforts like their charter planes and ultimate accommodations that they have grown somewhat soft.

Of course, there are exceptions like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. But gone, say many, seems to be the team notion you'd see from the great teams of previous eras which relished the "us-against-the-world" mentality of going into an opposing arena and silencing the home crowd. When the Chicago Bulls won their first three championships from 1991 to 1993, they won more games in the Finals on the road than at home.

The belief among some is that today's players have come into the NBA so pampered in recruitment from high-school or AAU teams that they need the home crowd and support to push them. Also, many never played on the road in the big college atmospheres because they went directly to the NBA from high school or just spent a year in college. They haven't developed the toughness of dealing with hostile crowds.

While it's not unusual that home teams tend to dominate — a larger home/away margin has been more common in the NBA than in other sports — it's more the disparity in these playoffs.

Many fans, especially those favoring the road teams, see the hosting teams getting more foul calls and feel the referees are influenced by the home crowd. That's not necessarily true.

The NBA is principally a game of energy, more so than in other team sports. Playing at home with a supportive crowd tends to produce more bursts of energy, and the team that is the aggressor generally gets the foul calls. Most teams ride the energy of the crowd into more aggressive play. The resulting effect also is to put key players into foul trouble with Carlos Boozer having foul trouble in Los Angeles and Derek Fisher in Salt Lake City in the Jazz-Lakers series.

It's a domino effect as teams then have to use bench players more. Those generally are players not accustomed to playing a key role, and reserves with less playing time also tend to play more comfortably at home in front of a friendly crowd and tentative on the road with more pressure and a hostile environment.

On the road, that extra mental toughness is required to play through the foul calls a team believes it may not be getting.

Also, some coaches will try to play differently on the road and it could impact the nature of the team. Some coaches, like you'll see with Cleveland, will slow the game down even more. The notion is you keep the crowd out of the game as much as possible by preventing fast breaks and runouts by getting back more quickly, keep the game close and perhaps steal the game at the end. But that sometimes can backfire, as it might take a team out of its normal offense or demonstrate a subtle lack of confidence in his own team which might affect his confidence.

It's also why teams talk so much about the importance of veterans in the playoffs. Usually veteran players will be less distracted by many of the factors which contribute to home-court superiority.

It's perhaps why the Pistons, a veteran team that has been together for several years, were the only one to win a road game in the second round until the Lakers closed out the Jazz in Game 6. This Celtics group, despite a league best in wins and loaded with veterans, never has played in the playoffs together. The Cavs, despite being in the Finals last season, were remade in midseason. Many among the Hornets are experiencing their first playoffs. And the Jazz is young as well with point guard Deron Williams.

The aberration seems to be the Spurs, a veteran team that's won together. Yes, several of their role players are aging. But it doesn’t seem to explain their inability to even play close games in New Orleans. It could be we are experiencing a changing of the guard in the West with the young Hornets.

Or just that the overall talent level is not as good as it once was. Of course, some could argue it's better with fewer poor teams, so it's more difficult to beat another top team on their home court, that the parity is positive.

In any case, it's producing several long series with key, pivotal games. And what's wrong with that?