spursfaninla
05-16-2008, 08:36 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/news/story?page=Smackdown08#scoreboard
(edited down to spurs relevant content... ALSO SIDE NOTE: top 3 of 4 best predictors in this group, so far, PICKED THE SPURS TO WIN THIS SERIES...)
TrueHoop's Stat Geek Smackdown: 2008 Playoffs
Abbott
By Henry Abbott
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: May 14, 2008, 1:55 PM ET
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Go to: Scoreboard Predictions Bios
It's Year 2 of the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown, won in 2007 by Justin Kubatko of Basketball-Reference.com.
The rules are simple: Based on stats, hunches and anything else, each person predicts the outcome of each series, round by round. Each correctly picked series is worth five points. Correctly predicting the number of games is worth two additional points. Winner take all.
As a little something to raise the stakes, I'm also challenging these stat experts to go head to head against ... my mom. She watched a lot of Blazer basketball in the 1990s. Fear her.:lol
On to the contest ...
SCOREBOARD
TOTAL
John Hollinger 37
Mike Kurylo40
Kevin Pelton37
Jeff Ma41
Stephen Ilardi 44
Justin Kubatko51
Henry's Mom 37
EXPERT PICKS: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (3) VS. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (2)
Hollinger Hornets(In 7)
Kurylo Spurs(In 6)
Pelton Hornets(In 7)
Ma Spurs(In 6)
Ilardi Spurs(In 6)
Kubatko Hornets(In 7)
MomHornets(In 6)
SMACKDOWN BREAKDOWN
A nice split! That means this'll be a must-watch, seven-game series, just like Phoenix vs. San Antonio. Oops.
John Hollinger is an international authority on basketball statistics. He justifies his pick this way: "New Orleans was the slightly better team in the regular season and again in the first round, and they have home court ... But what do I know -- I'm losing to Henry's Mom." (They were when he wrote this, but are now actually tied.):lmao
Stephen Ilardi points to a conundrum: the Spurs are better than their regular season record suggests. "Based on simple team regressions alone, it should be Hornets in seven, since New Orleans has been about +0.8 points per game better this year, and has the home court advantage for this series. But San Antonio has improved considerably in the post-season from an adjusted plus-minus standpoint, mostly by giving Kurt Thomas (+3.49) more minutes than Fabricio Oberto (-5.57), and by dramatically reducing the playing time of Jacque Vaughn (-5.45) and Damon Stoudamire (-7.21). I have the Spurs roughly four points per game better than the Hornets based on postseason playing time distribution, just enough to offset the +3.6 points per game home court advantage."
Jeffrey Ma says: "Both teams were impressive in the first round but you have to think San Antonio will have much better team defense than the Mavericks and will not let Chris Paul dominate. Bowen will likely check Paul and will certainly do a better job than Kidd, and you have to think the experience of the Spurs will be enough to get them through."
Mike Kurylo says: "Picking between these two teams is like picking between heads or tails on a flipped coin. They both finished with 56 wins, and both had comparable point differential. They split the regular season head to head matchup 2-2. San Antonio might get a slight edge because Parker and Ginobili missed a combined 20 games during the regular season, but that's negated by New Orleans' home court advantage. I could see these two teams playing a hundred games and ending up with 50 wins apiece. I would like to see the Hornets win because I think they'll make a better story line. But I promised this year to go with OTTER (my ranking system) which has the Spurs ranked fourth and the Hornets fifth by a slim margin. So I'm taking the Spurs."
Justin Kubatko, the reigning champ, is not daunted by recent fluctuations in numbers. "The numbers, he writes, "point to New Orleans, so that's my pick, New Orleans in 7. However, I really like the Spurs and would probably pick them if I were going with my gut. To make myself feel better I came up with three reasons (other than what my math is telling me) why the Hornets should win this series: 1) New Orleans has the home court advantage. 2) New Orleans split their season series with the Spurs, and the two wins were 24-point and 25-point blowouts. 3) Chris Paul was, by a fair margin, the best player in the NBA this season."
Kevin Pelton's rationale is similar. "After the first-round demolition of Phoenix, I'm fearful the Spurs snookered us in the regular season," he writes. "But had a couple of breaks gone differently in Games 1 and 5, we might not feel that way. I'm sticking with the weight of regular-season evidence. I'm sure some team has managed to win consistently in the playoffs with only three players averaging more than eight points per game, but I can't think of any. If the Hornets control one of the big three, they'll win this series."
(edited down to spurs relevant content... ALSO SIDE NOTE: top 3 of 4 best predictors in this group, so far, PICKED THE SPURS TO WIN THIS SERIES...)
TrueHoop's Stat Geek Smackdown: 2008 Playoffs
Abbott
By Henry Abbott
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: May 14, 2008, 1:55 PM ET
* Comment
Go to: Scoreboard Predictions Bios
It's Year 2 of the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown, won in 2007 by Justin Kubatko of Basketball-Reference.com.
The rules are simple: Based on stats, hunches and anything else, each person predicts the outcome of each series, round by round. Each correctly picked series is worth five points. Correctly predicting the number of games is worth two additional points. Winner take all.
As a little something to raise the stakes, I'm also challenging these stat experts to go head to head against ... my mom. She watched a lot of Blazer basketball in the 1990s. Fear her.:lol
On to the contest ...
SCOREBOARD
TOTAL
John Hollinger 37
Mike Kurylo40
Kevin Pelton37
Jeff Ma41
Stephen Ilardi 44
Justin Kubatko51
Henry's Mom 37
EXPERT PICKS: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (3) VS. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (2)
Hollinger Hornets(In 7)
Kurylo Spurs(In 6)
Pelton Hornets(In 7)
Ma Spurs(In 6)
Ilardi Spurs(In 6)
Kubatko Hornets(In 7)
MomHornets(In 6)
SMACKDOWN BREAKDOWN
A nice split! That means this'll be a must-watch, seven-game series, just like Phoenix vs. San Antonio. Oops.
John Hollinger is an international authority on basketball statistics. He justifies his pick this way: "New Orleans was the slightly better team in the regular season and again in the first round, and they have home court ... But what do I know -- I'm losing to Henry's Mom." (They were when he wrote this, but are now actually tied.):lmao
Stephen Ilardi points to a conundrum: the Spurs are better than their regular season record suggests. "Based on simple team regressions alone, it should be Hornets in seven, since New Orleans has been about +0.8 points per game better this year, and has the home court advantage for this series. But San Antonio has improved considerably in the post-season from an adjusted plus-minus standpoint, mostly by giving Kurt Thomas (+3.49) more minutes than Fabricio Oberto (-5.57), and by dramatically reducing the playing time of Jacque Vaughn (-5.45) and Damon Stoudamire (-7.21). I have the Spurs roughly four points per game better than the Hornets based on postseason playing time distribution, just enough to offset the +3.6 points per game home court advantage."
Jeffrey Ma says: "Both teams were impressive in the first round but you have to think San Antonio will have much better team defense than the Mavericks and will not let Chris Paul dominate. Bowen will likely check Paul and will certainly do a better job than Kidd, and you have to think the experience of the Spurs will be enough to get them through."
Mike Kurylo says: "Picking between these two teams is like picking between heads or tails on a flipped coin. They both finished with 56 wins, and both had comparable point differential. They split the regular season head to head matchup 2-2. San Antonio might get a slight edge because Parker and Ginobili missed a combined 20 games during the regular season, but that's negated by New Orleans' home court advantage. I could see these two teams playing a hundred games and ending up with 50 wins apiece. I would like to see the Hornets win because I think they'll make a better story line. But I promised this year to go with OTTER (my ranking system) which has the Spurs ranked fourth and the Hornets fifth by a slim margin. So I'm taking the Spurs."
Justin Kubatko, the reigning champ, is not daunted by recent fluctuations in numbers. "The numbers, he writes, "point to New Orleans, so that's my pick, New Orleans in 7. However, I really like the Spurs and would probably pick them if I were going with my gut. To make myself feel better I came up with three reasons (other than what my math is telling me) why the Hornets should win this series: 1) New Orleans has the home court advantage. 2) New Orleans split their season series with the Spurs, and the two wins were 24-point and 25-point blowouts. 3) Chris Paul was, by a fair margin, the best player in the NBA this season."
Kevin Pelton's rationale is similar. "After the first-round demolition of Phoenix, I'm fearful the Spurs snookered us in the regular season," he writes. "But had a couple of breaks gone differently in Games 1 and 5, we might not feel that way. I'm sticking with the weight of regular-season evidence. I'm sure some team has managed to win consistently in the playoffs with only three players averaging more than eight points per game, but I can't think of any. If the Hornets control one of the big three, they'll win this series."