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The List: Sorry, Spurs — you just can't win this one
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Posted: May 21, 2008
If the Boston Celtics (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/teams/celtics/index.html) can summon the energy and focus, two nights after completing a second straight seven-game stress test, to beat a rested (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=414147)Detroit Pistons (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/teams/pistons/index.html) team in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, then the San Antonio Spurs (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/teams/spurs/index.html) ought to be able to bounce back from a night sleeping on the team plane -- after a Game 7 of their own (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=413729) -- and hit the Los Angeles Lakers (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/teams/lakers/index.html) with their A-game tonight (9 p.m. ET, TNT).
The thing is, the Spurs' A-game may not be enough to get a Game 1 win. Or a Game 2 win. Or, for that matter, more than a win or two - period -- in the Western Conference finals. Because the Lakers, yes, indeed, are just plain better.
Let The List go on record right now as not only doubting that the Spurs are as good as they were a year ago, but also completely buying into a Lakers resurgence spirited by the best player in the game, Kobe Bryant -- a deserving MVP, for those of you doubting it -- and backed up by the rest of a long, lean, smooth-running machine that won't quit until the last opponent has been spit onto the scrapheap.
With that fistful of flame-throwing hyperbole, The List's top 10 reasons the Spurs can't beat the Lakers in a seven-game series:
1. Simple math. Kobe Bryant equals any two of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, much as LeBron James offset any two of the Celtics' Big Three in a seven-game series that had no other rational reason for being. Anyone who doubts Bryant's preeminence in this series is ignoring the elephant in the room: Bryant has finally ascended to Michael Jordan's level. The Lakers, health be with them, are good to go for the next few championships.
2. The Big Fundamentals. Duncan doesn't seem to have that 16-foot jumper from the elbow anymore. His kisses off the window from improbable angles don't come often enough, either. Duncan is one of the 20 best players ever, but he is unmistakably on the downside of his career -- a post player who didn't fight for position against the New Orleans Hornets (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/teams/hornets/index.html) and whose best contributions came as a rebounder. The truth hurts, Spurs fans.
3. The lane game. Chris Paul is a wizard, but he got into the lane so easily in the second round that The List shudders to think of how easily Bryant will do the same. Whereas Paul lobbed to Tyson Chandler for easy dunks, Bryant will draw fouls by the truckload and give Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol, yes, easy dunks.
4. Ageism. The List naturally roots for the oldsters, but Bruce Bowen (36), Michael Finley (35) and Robert Horry (37) won't get many open looks because of the closeout ability of the exceedingly tall Lakers. And Derek Fisher, Vladimir Radmanovic and Sasha Vujacic are better long-ball shooters, anyway.
5. Trevor Ariza. At some point in this series, the Lakers' long-armed defensive specialist will make his reappearance from a foot injury and become a force to be reckoned with. Be ready, Mr. Ginobili, because Ariza can make you go right if he wants to.
6. Pau-er ball. Gasol can soften the Spurs' interior with his pick-and-pop shot, but his real value is in crashing down the lane off the pick-and-roll, which the Lakers run -- with Bryant at the point -- as well as anybody. No way Fabricio Oberto can stay with Gasol; Duncan can't run with him, either.
7. The most underrated player in the league. He is Lamar Odom, and he will draw Duncan or Oberto away from the basket and then drive right past him. And Odom is strong enough to defend an interior big man -- and rebound -- better than David West did. Don't be surprised when Odom averages 12 boards a game in this series.
8. The Udoka factor. Ime Udoka has been a savior for the Spurs, but the Lakers have at least three guys on their bench -- Vujacic, Luke Walton and Ariza -- who are athletic enough to neutralize him.
9. Kurt Thomas? Please. Thomas is an underappreciated man of men, but so is Ronny Turiaf, who is younger and sprier than Thomas and just as strong. At best, the Thomas factor is a wash for the Spurs.
10. Coaching. Gregg Popovich is a Hall of Famer in waiting, but he rates no edge whatsoever over Phil Jackson. Not this year, anyway. Jackson's shtick doesn't always stick, but when It does it's priceless -- and all things are working for the Lakers this spring. L.A. wins in five games. Six, tops.
Steve Greenberg is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at
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