timvp
05-21-2008, 06:58 PM
Series Thoughts: Spurs vs. Lakers Preview
By LJ & Kori Ellis
The San Antonio Spurs climbed out of a daunting 0-2 hole to beat the upstart New Orleans Hornets in seven games. Their reward? A date in the Western Conference Finals against arguably the hottest team in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been a very successful team since acquiring Pau Gasol. They have won 30 of their previous 36 games since trading for the Big Spaniard. Since he’s gotten to Los Angeles, Gasol has taken to Phil Jackson’s triangle offense like a fish to water.
And then there’s Kobe Bryant. Bryant has long been the most talented player in the league, however he has now turned the corner and might actually be the best overall player in the NBA. In addition to his amazing scoring ability, he has upped his level of trust in his teammates and he’s play defense better than ever. At the age of 29, Bryant is playing the best basketball of his life.
A number of other Lakers, including Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher, are at the top of their games. The Lakers offense is clicking at a high level right now. In the regular season, they were the best offensive team in the league outside of Phoenix. In the playoffs, the Lakers have been even better offensively.
The underrated aspect of the Lakers is actually their defense. While they aren’t quite an elite defensive team, they are statistically better than both the Suns and the Hornets. Los Angeles isn’t blessed with a number of great one-on-one defenders but they do have good defensive principals and are well coached on that side of the ball.
And yes, speaking of coaching, the good ol’ Zen Master remains one of the best -- if not the best -- coaches in the NBA. He has taken a relatively young team to the doorstep of an NBA championship. Going up against the defending champions, many league experts give the Lakers a decided advantage against the Spurs.
How can the Spurs actually win this series? Let us take a look.
TIM DUNCAN
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LJ's View: Tim Duncan is coming off of his worst series ever. Obviously, he was still effective and drew a lot of attention from the Hornets, but Duncan will need to play much, much better for the Spurs to have a shot against the Lakers. It appears likely that he’ll match up against Gasol on both ends of the court. Not only does Duncan need to win that battle, he needs to win it convincingly. Duncan’s main advantage against Gasol will be strength. If he can get deep post position, he should be able to have success on the offensive end. Defensively, Duncan needs to slow down Gasol as much as possible while making sure to stay out of foul trouble. It’s going to be a difficult series for Duncan, then again championships aren’t easy.
Kori's View: Tim Duncan battled through illness, double teams and everything else against the Hornets. He looked horrible for most of the series, but it doesn't really matter -- it’s a clean slate and a new series. Duncan needs to establish position in the low block early and use his power. There's no need to settle for pansy hooks, weak layups or fadeaways. He needs to go up strong and not hesitate when he has the ball near the cup. On defense, obviously Duncan can't get into foul trouble but he needs to establish himself on that end as well. Gasol is very good, much better than his wimpy days in Memphis. -----------------------------------------
MANU GINOBILI
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LJ's View: The good thing about Manu Ginobili heading into this series is he has faced two very different defenses in the first two rounds and he should be ready for anything. Against the Suns, one of their main focuses was to slow down Ginobili. However, on the other hand, the Hornets were basically daring Ginobili to win games for the Spurs. And although Ginobili hasn’t been great in these playoffs so far, he’s been solid. My main worry about Ginobili right now is his health. He’s battled ankle, hip and calf injuries in the last month and he doesn’t seem nearly as agile as usual. It’s most noticeable when he’s driving to the basket and when he’s playing defense. He doesn’t have quite the same explosion and ability to contort his body. That said, hopefully he can get healthy at some point in this series. If he can get back to how he was playing in February, I sincerely believe that the Spurs would become easily the best team in the NBA.
Kori's Views: I’m not sure what more Spurs fans could have expected out of Manu Ginobili in the Hornets series. His stats were as good or better than his regular season numbers. His shooting percentage was down a bit but that was mostly due to him relying on three-pointers against the sagging Hornets defense. Against the Lakers, I hope he can have a few SuperManu games where he becomes unstoppable. If he has Bryant on him, it’d be nice if Ginobili could get him in foul trouble. On defense, Ginobili has to stay on Vladimir Radmanovic. Radmanovic is a lot like Peja Stojakovic and Ginobili didn’t defend Stojakovic too well at all.
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TONY PARKER
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LJ's View: Against the Suns, Tony Parker was usually the best player on the floor. Against the Hornets, he was rarely the best player at his position. Luckily, there are no more Chris Pauls left in the playoffs. Against the Lakers, Parker will spend much of the time matched up against Derek Fisher. Parker needs to drive the ball to the basket as much as possible. He has a speed advantage and he needs to make the Lakers bigmen work as much as possible. Defensively, Parker must not allow Fisher to get open looks. Fisher is shooting better than he ever has and will kill the Spurs if left open from beyond the three-point line. Overall, Parker needs to have a very good series for the Spurs to advance. If he can’t convincingly outplay Fisher, San Antonio doesn’t have a chance.
Kori's View: The Hornets series was about Ginobili dominating due to matchups. This series, Tony Parker has to go back to dominating like he was against the Suns. Parker has owned Fisher in recent years and must continue his ownage in this series. If Jackson and the Lakers try to pack the paint like they did in 2004, Parker’s jumper needs to come to life. The good thing is Parker should be able to rest more during games because he won’t have to chase around Paul. Hopefully that allows more of his energy to be used on offense.
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BRUCE BOWEN
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LJ's View: Bruce Bowen was signed by the Spurs specifically to help San Antonio defend Bryant. The two players meet again. Bowen will need to have the series of his life to slow Bryant down at this point. Bryant is playing at a very high level and has teammates around him that accentuate his talents and make life easier for him. Bowen’s main goal should be to force Bryant into taking difficult midrange jumpers. Not allowing Bryant to attack the rim and get to the free throw line will be huge. Offensively, Bowen needs to shoot better than he has so far this postseason. Luckily, he usually shoots pretty well against Los Angeles.
Kori's View: Bruce Bowen loves playing the Lakers. You can just see how much he relishes these games. I expect that he’ll give his all against Bryant on one end and shoot well at the other end. Bowen might be getting older but I haven’t seen him slow down at all. He might be an even better defender than he was in 2004 because he’s gotten craftier and smarter since that time. Bryant will be a test but I’m confident Bowen will be more than ready. If anyone in the world can slow Bryant, it’s Bowen.
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FABRICIO OBERTO
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LJ's View: Fabricio Oberto is back in the starting lineup for the time being and he faces a lot of challenges against the Lakers. He played well against the Hornets but this is a whole new series. On defense, Oberto will likely find himself matched up against Odom a lot of the time. Oberto obviously needs to get out on the perimeter and get a hand up when Odom is shooting three-pointers. He also has to try to keep Odom in front of him as much as possible. Odom has played very well in the last six weeks and slowing him down is one of the biggest keys for San Antonio. Oberto will get first crack at doing just that. Offensively, Oberto needs to remain a threat. If he’s doubled off of, Oberto needs to score around the basket. It’s going to be a difficult series for Oberto since he’ll basically be going up against an oversized small forward but the Spurs need him to come through.
Kori's View: I’m wary about Oberto being on Odom. Odom is too mobile and too good off the dribble for Oberto to guard. And although I think he was pretty good against the Hornets, he missed a lot of easy shots and didn’t pull down all the rebounds that were available to him. Oberto also got lit up by David West and Odom is an even more perimeter oriented version of West. We’ll see but I’m not too confident in Oberto in this series.
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IME UDOKA
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LJ's View: In the past, the Spurs have only had Bowen to throw at Bryant. Now the Spurs can potentially throw Ime Udoka at Bryant to give the Lakers different looks. Udoka is a solid defender who makes up for his lack of athleticism with strength and determination. Not fouling Bryant will be Udoka’s biggest task this series, as Udoka tends to pick up a lot of ticky-tack fouls. In addition to Bryant, Udoka could find himself defending Odom a lot if none of the bigmen for the Spurs proves capable of slowing him down. Offensively, Udoka has to continue to do what he did against the Hornets. Taking and making three-pointers should be his main focus. Although Udoka was very good against the Hornets, this series will be much more difficult. Chances are that Pop will lean on Udoka to carry part of the load against the Lakers.
Kori's View: I don’t think Ime Udoka should spend too much time on Bryant. Udoka fouls too often and Bryant would just go to the line. Unless Bowen is in foul trouble, he should always stay on Bryant. Udoka is a possibility to defend Odom, however he could very likely be too short for the job. Odom is tall and long while Udoka is relatively short and he doesn’t have too long of arms. I still need to see Udoka knock down a few more shots before I trust him. He went through hot streaks in the regular season and then would cool off for a couple weeks.
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KURT THOMAS
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LJ's View: Kurt Thomas didn’t have a very good series against the Hornets. He was very good against the Suns but the Hornets were just a difficult matchup for him. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Lakers as Gasol is the type of player Thomas can guard. Using his strength advantage to keep him out of the paint as much as possible will be the way Thomas can be most effective against Gasol. Offensively, Thomas will need to be connecting on his midrange jumper. The Spurs traded for Thomas with the Lakers in mind. Hopefully he doesn’t disappoint.
Kori's View: Outside of Gasol, I don’t see anyone on the Lakers for Thomas to guard. He can’t defend Odom due to his lack of mobility. Maybe he can guard Ronny Turiaf but Turiaf hasn’t been playing too much lately. If Duncan is out and Gasol is in, Thomas is the number one option. Otherwise, he might see a lot more bench time against Los Angeles.
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MICHAEL FINLEY
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LJ's View: Michael Finley ran hot and cold against the Hornets. It appears that Udoka has become the first swingman off the bench so Finley’s role will likely remain decreased. However, Finley could be called upon to stretch the floor if the Lakers begin to pack the paint. If he can shoot the ball consistently well, Pop will likely find more minutes for him. On defense, Finley could find himself on anyone from Sasha Vujacic to Odom to Luke Walton. He needs to play better defense than he has played in the last few months.
Kori's View: From what I remember, Michael Finley has played really well against the Lakers -- especially in Los Angeles. I expect him to knock down a few momentum changing shots in this series. However, I also expect him to play horrible defense and go ice cold at times. Spurs fans who think that Finley will all of a sudden become a consistent player haven’t watched him throughout his career.
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JACQUE VAUGHN
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LJ's View: Jacque Vaughn has been missing in action for much of the playoffs and will likely continue to ride the pine against the Lakers. The problem with Vaughn is that the offense sputters too much when he’s on the floor. Being that the team is already offensively challenged as it is, the Spurs can’t afford to put another non-scorer on the court. That said, Vaughn may see minutes this series because he matches up well against the point guards on the Lakers. If the Spurs can keep the pace slow, Vaughn could be called on to play harassing halfcourt defense.
Kori's View: Jacque Vaughn shouldn’t play in this series. The Lakers are too good offensively. Ginobili should once again be the backup point guard.
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BRENT BARRY
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LJ's View: Brent Barry isn’t completely healthy but he shouldn’t be forgotten about. The Lakers are a cerebral team and if Pop is going to fight brains with brains, it makes sense for Barry to get minutes. He has shot the ball well during the playoffs and there are a few players on the Lakers Barry can be put on defensively to hide his injury. I wouldn’t count on Barry heroics in this series -- but then again, I wouldn’t count him out.
Kori's View: Brent Barry is playing the Steve Kerr role right now. He might not be needed every game but he’s staying ready.
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ROBERT HORRY
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LJ's View: Robert Horry played very well in Game 7 against the Hornets, so hopefully that carries over to this series. In 2004, Horry had a poor showing against his former team but I think he was overexcited about that series. Hopefully he can stay relaxed and just play like he normally plays. Horry has had success in the past against both Odom and Gasol. Whether he can recreate that magic in this series is the question.
Kori's View: The player on the Spurs who is best built to defend Odom might be Horry. The problem is Horry isn’t as mobile as he used to be a few years ago. Still, he might be the best option the Spurs have to combat Odom.
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MATT BONNER & DAMON STOUDAMIRE
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LJ's View: Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire will only play during blowouts. If there are any blowouts, hopefully they are the good kind of blowouts and not the bad kind of blowouts.
Kori's View: The less minutes for those two the better. The Spurs usually get blown out or win close games. If these two are playing, it probably means the Spurs are getting blown out.
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COACHING
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LJ's View: Pop has coached better than ever in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now comes the ultimate challenge. If there is one coach who has had Pop’s number over the years, it’s Phil Jackson.
Jackson has repeatedly shown why he’s in the conversation when it comes to choosing the best coaches of all-time. He’s the master at figuring out the weak points in the opposition and then exploiting those weaknesses. He also keeps his players loose and you can always count on a Jackson coached team coming out ready to play.
Pop definitely has his work cut out for him in this series. He needs to not only outcoach Jackson, he also needs to figure out a way to stop the best offensive team left standing. The Lakers are flowing offensively and their chemistry is off the charts right now. Pop has to devise a scheme that will slow down this offensive juggernaut.
Offensively, Pop needs to put the Big Three in positions to succeed. Duncan hypothetically should be able to play well on the low block but depending on what the Lakers do defensively, that may not be the case. Parker and Ginobili both need to score well and shoot for high percentages. Pop also needs to find shooters who are able to knock down shots against the impressive length the Lakers possess.
It’s going to be a damn tough series for Pop to figure everything out but he’s shown an ability to do just that so far in these playoffs.
Kori's View: Pop’s main job against the Lakers is figuring out how to defend their long and multi-positional players. Odom is a nightmare matchup. Ginobili on Radmanovic isn’t the best matchup for the Spurs. It might take small ball -- it might even take big ball -- but whatever it takes, Pop has to slow down their offense.
I’m not too worried about the Big Three. Duncan will rebound from his series against the Hornets. Parker has the advantage against Fisher. Ginobili will be Ginobili. Like was the case against the Hornets, the Spurs need their role players to hit shots. If the role players shoot well, the Big Three will be able to score enough points.
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SERIES OVERVIEW
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LJ's View: The Lakers are going to be an extremely difficult out. Their offense is very good and their defense is underrated. Bryant is playing very good basketball and it appears that almost every other player on their roster is playing at or above expectations. The Lakers have also shown an ability to win on the road -- unlike just about every other playoff team this year.
The Spurs have the edge in experience and they are about as battle tested as possible after two rounds of the NBA playoffs. I’m confident that this team won’t go down without a fight. It’s going to be an extremely daunting task but I truly think the Spurs can win this series in six games.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Fight fatigue. The Spurs are older and they are susceptible to getting tired. There are no days off in this series, which is a gigantic edge for the Lakers. The Spurs need to dig deep and find the energy to withstand Los Angeles.
2) Duncan domination. The Zen Master typically likes using single-team coverage against Duncan and then sending double-teams in the fourth quarter. If that’s again going to be the case, Duncan must punish the Lakers when he isn’t double-teamed -- something he failed to do against the Hornets.
3) Matchup mystery. There are a number of ways the Spurs can defend the Lakers in this series. Pop has to find the alignment that gives the Spurs the best chance of winning. Bowen will be on Bryant and Parker will be on Fisher, however everything else is up in the air.
4) Bench buckets. With Ginobili in the starting lineup, the bench goes from being a strength to being a weakness. The Lakers are a deep team with a lot of weapons coming off the pine. The Spurs need to find players who are willing to step up and match the bench of the Lakers.
5) Bowen on Bryant. In 2004, Bowen didn’t defend Bryant as well as he normally does. Bowen needs to show why many consider him the best perimeter defender in the game. If Bowen can make Bryant work and not getting easy baskets, Bowen will be doing his job.
Believe.
Kori's View: I see this series being a bloodbath. The Lakers are really good and the Spurs have had to go through two really difficult teams already. Unlike the Hornets series, I expect this series to have six really close games. The Lakers will pull out a couple of the games with Bryant having big nights but the Spurs will be headed to the Finals after six games.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Don’t let Odom and Radmanovic go wild. The Spurs should be able to defend everyone else well enough.
2) Stay out of foul trouble. The Big Three and Bowen need to all stay out of foul trouble. The Lakers have more than enough weapons to go on a run against a short-handed Spurs team.
3) Don’t dig the hole. It was tough enough to escape from one 0-2 hole. The Spurs can’t expect to do that again in this year’s playoffs.
4) Protect the home court. The Spurs need to go undefeated at home to beat the Lakers. Getting more than one win in Los Angeles is a tall order.
5) Make experience matter. The Lakers are very good but they’re relatively young in their development. They are also missing Andrew Bynum, who is going to be a stud. The Lakers will have their year again sometime soon -- just not this year.
Spurs in 6
By LJ & Kori Ellis
The San Antonio Spurs climbed out of a daunting 0-2 hole to beat the upstart New Orleans Hornets in seven games. Their reward? A date in the Western Conference Finals against arguably the hottest team in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been a very successful team since acquiring Pau Gasol. They have won 30 of their previous 36 games since trading for the Big Spaniard. Since he’s gotten to Los Angeles, Gasol has taken to Phil Jackson’s triangle offense like a fish to water.
And then there’s Kobe Bryant. Bryant has long been the most talented player in the league, however he has now turned the corner and might actually be the best overall player in the NBA. In addition to his amazing scoring ability, he has upped his level of trust in his teammates and he’s play defense better than ever. At the age of 29, Bryant is playing the best basketball of his life.
A number of other Lakers, including Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher, are at the top of their games. The Lakers offense is clicking at a high level right now. In the regular season, they were the best offensive team in the league outside of Phoenix. In the playoffs, the Lakers have been even better offensively.
The underrated aspect of the Lakers is actually their defense. While they aren’t quite an elite defensive team, they are statistically better than both the Suns and the Hornets. Los Angeles isn’t blessed with a number of great one-on-one defenders but they do have good defensive principals and are well coached on that side of the ball.
And yes, speaking of coaching, the good ol’ Zen Master remains one of the best -- if not the best -- coaches in the NBA. He has taken a relatively young team to the doorstep of an NBA championship. Going up against the defending champions, many league experts give the Lakers a decided advantage against the Spurs.
How can the Spurs actually win this series? Let us take a look.
TIM DUNCAN
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LJ's View: Tim Duncan is coming off of his worst series ever. Obviously, he was still effective and drew a lot of attention from the Hornets, but Duncan will need to play much, much better for the Spurs to have a shot against the Lakers. It appears likely that he’ll match up against Gasol on both ends of the court. Not only does Duncan need to win that battle, he needs to win it convincingly. Duncan’s main advantage against Gasol will be strength. If he can get deep post position, he should be able to have success on the offensive end. Defensively, Duncan needs to slow down Gasol as much as possible while making sure to stay out of foul trouble. It’s going to be a difficult series for Duncan, then again championships aren’t easy.
Kori's View: Tim Duncan battled through illness, double teams and everything else against the Hornets. He looked horrible for most of the series, but it doesn't really matter -- it’s a clean slate and a new series. Duncan needs to establish position in the low block early and use his power. There's no need to settle for pansy hooks, weak layups or fadeaways. He needs to go up strong and not hesitate when he has the ball near the cup. On defense, obviously Duncan can't get into foul trouble but he needs to establish himself on that end as well. Gasol is very good, much better than his wimpy days in Memphis. -----------------------------------------
MANU GINOBILI
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LJ's View: The good thing about Manu Ginobili heading into this series is he has faced two very different defenses in the first two rounds and he should be ready for anything. Against the Suns, one of their main focuses was to slow down Ginobili. However, on the other hand, the Hornets were basically daring Ginobili to win games for the Spurs. And although Ginobili hasn’t been great in these playoffs so far, he’s been solid. My main worry about Ginobili right now is his health. He’s battled ankle, hip and calf injuries in the last month and he doesn’t seem nearly as agile as usual. It’s most noticeable when he’s driving to the basket and when he’s playing defense. He doesn’t have quite the same explosion and ability to contort his body. That said, hopefully he can get healthy at some point in this series. If he can get back to how he was playing in February, I sincerely believe that the Spurs would become easily the best team in the NBA.
Kori's Views: I’m not sure what more Spurs fans could have expected out of Manu Ginobili in the Hornets series. His stats were as good or better than his regular season numbers. His shooting percentage was down a bit but that was mostly due to him relying on three-pointers against the sagging Hornets defense. Against the Lakers, I hope he can have a few SuperManu games where he becomes unstoppable. If he has Bryant on him, it’d be nice if Ginobili could get him in foul trouble. On defense, Ginobili has to stay on Vladimir Radmanovic. Radmanovic is a lot like Peja Stojakovic and Ginobili didn’t defend Stojakovic too well at all.
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TONY PARKER
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LJ's View: Against the Suns, Tony Parker was usually the best player on the floor. Against the Hornets, he was rarely the best player at his position. Luckily, there are no more Chris Pauls left in the playoffs. Against the Lakers, Parker will spend much of the time matched up against Derek Fisher. Parker needs to drive the ball to the basket as much as possible. He has a speed advantage and he needs to make the Lakers bigmen work as much as possible. Defensively, Parker must not allow Fisher to get open looks. Fisher is shooting better than he ever has and will kill the Spurs if left open from beyond the three-point line. Overall, Parker needs to have a very good series for the Spurs to advance. If he can’t convincingly outplay Fisher, San Antonio doesn’t have a chance.
Kori's View: The Hornets series was about Ginobili dominating due to matchups. This series, Tony Parker has to go back to dominating like he was against the Suns. Parker has owned Fisher in recent years and must continue his ownage in this series. If Jackson and the Lakers try to pack the paint like they did in 2004, Parker’s jumper needs to come to life. The good thing is Parker should be able to rest more during games because he won’t have to chase around Paul. Hopefully that allows more of his energy to be used on offense.
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BRUCE BOWEN
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LJ's View: Bruce Bowen was signed by the Spurs specifically to help San Antonio defend Bryant. The two players meet again. Bowen will need to have the series of his life to slow Bryant down at this point. Bryant is playing at a very high level and has teammates around him that accentuate his talents and make life easier for him. Bowen’s main goal should be to force Bryant into taking difficult midrange jumpers. Not allowing Bryant to attack the rim and get to the free throw line will be huge. Offensively, Bowen needs to shoot better than he has so far this postseason. Luckily, he usually shoots pretty well against Los Angeles.
Kori's View: Bruce Bowen loves playing the Lakers. You can just see how much he relishes these games. I expect that he’ll give his all against Bryant on one end and shoot well at the other end. Bowen might be getting older but I haven’t seen him slow down at all. He might be an even better defender than he was in 2004 because he’s gotten craftier and smarter since that time. Bryant will be a test but I’m confident Bowen will be more than ready. If anyone in the world can slow Bryant, it’s Bowen.
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FABRICIO OBERTO
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LJ's View: Fabricio Oberto is back in the starting lineup for the time being and he faces a lot of challenges against the Lakers. He played well against the Hornets but this is a whole new series. On defense, Oberto will likely find himself matched up against Odom a lot of the time. Oberto obviously needs to get out on the perimeter and get a hand up when Odom is shooting three-pointers. He also has to try to keep Odom in front of him as much as possible. Odom has played very well in the last six weeks and slowing him down is one of the biggest keys for San Antonio. Oberto will get first crack at doing just that. Offensively, Oberto needs to remain a threat. If he’s doubled off of, Oberto needs to score around the basket. It’s going to be a difficult series for Oberto since he’ll basically be going up against an oversized small forward but the Spurs need him to come through.
Kori's View: I’m wary about Oberto being on Odom. Odom is too mobile and too good off the dribble for Oberto to guard. And although I think he was pretty good against the Hornets, he missed a lot of easy shots and didn’t pull down all the rebounds that were available to him. Oberto also got lit up by David West and Odom is an even more perimeter oriented version of West. We’ll see but I’m not too confident in Oberto in this series.
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IME UDOKA
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LJ's View: In the past, the Spurs have only had Bowen to throw at Bryant. Now the Spurs can potentially throw Ime Udoka at Bryant to give the Lakers different looks. Udoka is a solid defender who makes up for his lack of athleticism with strength and determination. Not fouling Bryant will be Udoka’s biggest task this series, as Udoka tends to pick up a lot of ticky-tack fouls. In addition to Bryant, Udoka could find himself defending Odom a lot if none of the bigmen for the Spurs proves capable of slowing him down. Offensively, Udoka has to continue to do what he did against the Hornets. Taking and making three-pointers should be his main focus. Although Udoka was very good against the Hornets, this series will be much more difficult. Chances are that Pop will lean on Udoka to carry part of the load against the Lakers.
Kori's View: I don’t think Ime Udoka should spend too much time on Bryant. Udoka fouls too often and Bryant would just go to the line. Unless Bowen is in foul trouble, he should always stay on Bryant. Udoka is a possibility to defend Odom, however he could very likely be too short for the job. Odom is tall and long while Udoka is relatively short and he doesn’t have too long of arms. I still need to see Udoka knock down a few more shots before I trust him. He went through hot streaks in the regular season and then would cool off for a couple weeks.
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KURT THOMAS
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LJ's View: Kurt Thomas didn’t have a very good series against the Hornets. He was very good against the Suns but the Hornets were just a difficult matchup for him. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Lakers as Gasol is the type of player Thomas can guard. Using his strength advantage to keep him out of the paint as much as possible will be the way Thomas can be most effective against Gasol. Offensively, Thomas will need to be connecting on his midrange jumper. The Spurs traded for Thomas with the Lakers in mind. Hopefully he doesn’t disappoint.
Kori's View: Outside of Gasol, I don’t see anyone on the Lakers for Thomas to guard. He can’t defend Odom due to his lack of mobility. Maybe he can guard Ronny Turiaf but Turiaf hasn’t been playing too much lately. If Duncan is out and Gasol is in, Thomas is the number one option. Otherwise, he might see a lot more bench time against Los Angeles.
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MICHAEL FINLEY
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LJ's View: Michael Finley ran hot and cold against the Hornets. It appears that Udoka has become the first swingman off the bench so Finley’s role will likely remain decreased. However, Finley could be called upon to stretch the floor if the Lakers begin to pack the paint. If he can shoot the ball consistently well, Pop will likely find more minutes for him. On defense, Finley could find himself on anyone from Sasha Vujacic to Odom to Luke Walton. He needs to play better defense than he has played in the last few months.
Kori's View: From what I remember, Michael Finley has played really well against the Lakers -- especially in Los Angeles. I expect him to knock down a few momentum changing shots in this series. However, I also expect him to play horrible defense and go ice cold at times. Spurs fans who think that Finley will all of a sudden become a consistent player haven’t watched him throughout his career.
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JACQUE VAUGHN
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LJ's View: Jacque Vaughn has been missing in action for much of the playoffs and will likely continue to ride the pine against the Lakers. The problem with Vaughn is that the offense sputters too much when he’s on the floor. Being that the team is already offensively challenged as it is, the Spurs can’t afford to put another non-scorer on the court. That said, Vaughn may see minutes this series because he matches up well against the point guards on the Lakers. If the Spurs can keep the pace slow, Vaughn could be called on to play harassing halfcourt defense.
Kori's View: Jacque Vaughn shouldn’t play in this series. The Lakers are too good offensively. Ginobili should once again be the backup point guard.
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BRENT BARRY
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LJ's View: Brent Barry isn’t completely healthy but he shouldn’t be forgotten about. The Lakers are a cerebral team and if Pop is going to fight brains with brains, it makes sense for Barry to get minutes. He has shot the ball well during the playoffs and there are a few players on the Lakers Barry can be put on defensively to hide his injury. I wouldn’t count on Barry heroics in this series -- but then again, I wouldn’t count him out.
Kori's View: Brent Barry is playing the Steve Kerr role right now. He might not be needed every game but he’s staying ready.
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ROBERT HORRY
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LJ's View: Robert Horry played very well in Game 7 against the Hornets, so hopefully that carries over to this series. In 2004, Horry had a poor showing against his former team but I think he was overexcited about that series. Hopefully he can stay relaxed and just play like he normally plays. Horry has had success in the past against both Odom and Gasol. Whether he can recreate that magic in this series is the question.
Kori's View: The player on the Spurs who is best built to defend Odom might be Horry. The problem is Horry isn’t as mobile as he used to be a few years ago. Still, he might be the best option the Spurs have to combat Odom.
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MATT BONNER & DAMON STOUDAMIRE
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LJ's View: Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire will only play during blowouts. If there are any blowouts, hopefully they are the good kind of blowouts and not the bad kind of blowouts.
Kori's View: The less minutes for those two the better. The Spurs usually get blown out or win close games. If these two are playing, it probably means the Spurs are getting blown out.
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COACHING
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LJ's View: Pop has coached better than ever in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now comes the ultimate challenge. If there is one coach who has had Pop’s number over the years, it’s Phil Jackson.
Jackson has repeatedly shown why he’s in the conversation when it comes to choosing the best coaches of all-time. He’s the master at figuring out the weak points in the opposition and then exploiting those weaknesses. He also keeps his players loose and you can always count on a Jackson coached team coming out ready to play.
Pop definitely has his work cut out for him in this series. He needs to not only outcoach Jackson, he also needs to figure out a way to stop the best offensive team left standing. The Lakers are flowing offensively and their chemistry is off the charts right now. Pop has to devise a scheme that will slow down this offensive juggernaut.
Offensively, Pop needs to put the Big Three in positions to succeed. Duncan hypothetically should be able to play well on the low block but depending on what the Lakers do defensively, that may not be the case. Parker and Ginobili both need to score well and shoot for high percentages. Pop also needs to find shooters who are able to knock down shots against the impressive length the Lakers possess.
It’s going to be a damn tough series for Pop to figure everything out but he’s shown an ability to do just that so far in these playoffs.
Kori's View: Pop’s main job against the Lakers is figuring out how to defend their long and multi-positional players. Odom is a nightmare matchup. Ginobili on Radmanovic isn’t the best matchup for the Spurs. It might take small ball -- it might even take big ball -- but whatever it takes, Pop has to slow down their offense.
I’m not too worried about the Big Three. Duncan will rebound from his series against the Hornets. Parker has the advantage against Fisher. Ginobili will be Ginobili. Like was the case against the Hornets, the Spurs need their role players to hit shots. If the role players shoot well, the Big Three will be able to score enough points.
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SERIES OVERVIEW
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LJ's View: The Lakers are going to be an extremely difficult out. Their offense is very good and their defense is underrated. Bryant is playing very good basketball and it appears that almost every other player on their roster is playing at or above expectations. The Lakers have also shown an ability to win on the road -- unlike just about every other playoff team this year.
The Spurs have the edge in experience and they are about as battle tested as possible after two rounds of the NBA playoffs. I’m confident that this team won’t go down without a fight. It’s going to be an extremely daunting task but I truly think the Spurs can win this series in six games.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Fight fatigue. The Spurs are older and they are susceptible to getting tired. There are no days off in this series, which is a gigantic edge for the Lakers. The Spurs need to dig deep and find the energy to withstand Los Angeles.
2) Duncan domination. The Zen Master typically likes using single-team coverage against Duncan and then sending double-teams in the fourth quarter. If that’s again going to be the case, Duncan must punish the Lakers when he isn’t double-teamed -- something he failed to do against the Hornets.
3) Matchup mystery. There are a number of ways the Spurs can defend the Lakers in this series. Pop has to find the alignment that gives the Spurs the best chance of winning. Bowen will be on Bryant and Parker will be on Fisher, however everything else is up in the air.
4) Bench buckets. With Ginobili in the starting lineup, the bench goes from being a strength to being a weakness. The Lakers are a deep team with a lot of weapons coming off the pine. The Spurs need to find players who are willing to step up and match the bench of the Lakers.
5) Bowen on Bryant. In 2004, Bowen didn’t defend Bryant as well as he normally does. Bowen needs to show why many consider him the best perimeter defender in the game. If Bowen can make Bryant work and not getting easy baskets, Bowen will be doing his job.
Believe.
Kori's View: I see this series being a bloodbath. The Lakers are really good and the Spurs have had to go through two really difficult teams already. Unlike the Hornets series, I expect this series to have six really close games. The Lakers will pull out a couple of the games with Bryant having big nights but the Spurs will be headed to the Finals after six games.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Don’t let Odom and Radmanovic go wild. The Spurs should be able to defend everyone else well enough.
2) Stay out of foul trouble. The Big Three and Bowen need to all stay out of foul trouble. The Lakers have more than enough weapons to go on a run against a short-handed Spurs team.
3) Don’t dig the hole. It was tough enough to escape from one 0-2 hole. The Spurs can’t expect to do that again in this year’s playoffs.
4) Protect the home court. The Spurs need to go undefeated at home to beat the Lakers. Getting more than one win in Los Angeles is a tall order.
5) Make experience matter. The Lakers are very good but they’re relatively young in their development. They are also missing Andrew Bynum, who is going to be a stud. The Lakers will have their year again sometime soon -- just not this year.
Spurs in 6