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01.20.09
06-18-2008, 10:41 AM
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

June 18, 2008 - Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems --- FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43; OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40

With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.


This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.


"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


"Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."


While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are:
Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent;
Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent;
Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent.

"If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider. The people who really matter come November - independent voters - turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket," Brown added.


"One in five voters say McCain's age is a reason to vote against him. But overwhelmingly they don't see Obama's race as a factor at all - indicating that Americans are either much less concerned with race, or just don't want to tell callers what they really think on the subject."


President Bush's approval ratings are:
27 - 66 percent in Florida;
22 - 71 percent in Ohio;
24 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.

Fifty to 58 percent of voters in each state list the economy as the most important issue in deciding how they will vote.


By almost 2 - 1 margins in each state, voters say going to war in Iraq was wrong. But they split between Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops under a fixed timetable and McCain's plan to keep troops there until the situation stabilizes and then withdraw without a set schedule.

Things are looking good even though it is early.

Extra Stout
06-18-2008, 10:49 AM
I guess Clinton supporters got over the grieving process quickly.

01.20.09
06-18-2008, 10:55 AM
The stakes are much too high to sit back and lick your wounds.

Extra Stout
06-18-2008, 10:56 AM
Keep in mind all polls may show a Bradley effect.

01.20.09
06-18-2008, 11:15 AM
True.

Mr. Peabody
06-18-2008, 11:23 AM
Keep in mind all polls may show a Bradley effect.

There was also an article today talking about how the polls may be underreporting Black turnout because Blacks are expected to vote in unprecedented numbers this year. It should be interesting to watch.

Extra Stout
06-18-2008, 11:32 AM
There was also an article today talking about how the polls may be underreporting Black turnout because Blacks are expected to vote in unprecedented numbers this year. It should be interesting to watch.
The same polls may also be underreporting the "Oh, HELL no" vote.

Ignignokt
06-18-2008, 11:34 AM
bitches give up. Obama aint gonna win.

101A
06-18-2008, 11:45 AM
There was also an article today talking about how the polls may be underreporting Black turnout because Blacks are expected to vote in unprecedented numbers this year. It should be interesting to watch.

(paraphrasing Stout)

It might also be underreporting the anti-black vote:

(including but not limited to)

Rednecks
Mexicans
White people over the age of 70
Jews

Mr. Peabody
06-18-2008, 11:53 AM
The same polls may also be underreporting the "Oh, HELL no" vote.

:lol

Yeah.

Nbadan
06-18-2008, 03:10 PM
I think republican pundits may have overplayed the Wright card....on the one hand, a lot of people came to know that Obama wasn't Muslim after all, but more importantly, the whole fire-and-brimstone card that Wright in famous for playing, is a religious right favorite...for the first time in many elections, the Democrats may split the religious vote - a traditional republican stronghold

Extra Stout
06-18-2008, 03:34 PM
I think republican pundits may have overplayed the Wright card....on the one hand, a lot of people came to know that Obama wasn't Muslim after all, but more importantly, the whole fire-and-brimstone card that Wright in famous for playing, is a religious right favorite...for the first time in many elections, the Democrats may split the religious vote - a traditional republican stronghold
I think you're completely tone-deaf to how evangelicals respond to Jeremiah Wright.

Nbadan
06-18-2008, 03:40 PM
We're all entitled to our opinions but I don't see the religious right lining up behind McCain, not now, not ever, unless he picks someone like the Huckster as his running-mate....

clambake
06-18-2008, 03:51 PM
We're all entitled to our opinions but I don't see the religious right lining up behind McCain, not now, not ever, unless he picks someone like the Huckster as his running-mate....

you just posted the most predictable and likely cure.

jochhejaam
06-18-2008, 03:51 PM
We're all entitled to our opinions but I don't see the religious right lining up behind McCain, not now, not ever, unless he picks someone like the Huckster as his running-mate....

They voted for Bush, and Dems refer to McCain as McSame, so why wouldn't they?

Can't have it both ways.

Extra Stout
06-18-2008, 03:51 PM
We're all entitled to our opinions but I don't see the religious right lining up behind McCain, not now, not ever, unless he picks someone like the Huckster as his running-mate....
I'm not sure the term "religious right" is even operative anymore.

The younger generation of post-evangelical Christians tend to have a distribution of political sensibilities more in line with devout Roman Catholics, so while you probably are right that the solid bloc of evangelical votes the GOP has counted on is past its peak, it's not for any of the reasons you would think, because frankly you know as much about the Christian culture in America as I do about cross-dressing entomologists in Prague.

Nbadan
06-18-2008, 03:55 PM
as I do about cross-dressing

Your right, I'm no P.H.D. on such matters like you.....

01.20.09
06-18-2008, 04:00 PM
Huckabee is warning republicans not to demonize Obama for fear it will back fire.

PEP
06-18-2008, 05:26 PM
Two polling aggregators, Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight (scroll down to see state poll averages), show Barack Obama with the lead in Ohio over John McCain when a number of polls are averaged.

However, two polls account for Obama's lead in the two sites' Ohio averages, and may actually be an early warning sign for the potential trouble Barack Obama could have in that key battleground state.

While both of the polls show Obama with large leads over McCain -- one shows Obama with an 11-point lead over John McCain, and the other shows Obama with a nine-point lead over his Repub rival -- the political breakdowns for the polls' respondents are eye-popping.

Public Policy Polling, which has Obama with an 11-point lead in the state, breaks down the poll's respondents thusly: Dem 55%, Repub 30% -- a 25-point margin for the Dems. (A March PPP poll showing McCain with an eight-point lead over Obama broke down: Dem 48%, Repub 32% -- a 16-point Dem margin.)

A SurveyUSA poll, which shows Obama with a nine-point lead in Ohio, breaks down the poll's respondents like this: Dem 52%, Repub 28% -- a 24-point margin favoring the Dems. (A March SurveyUSA poll showing McCain with a seven-point lead over Obama broke down: Dem 44%, Repub 34% -- for a 10-point Dem margin.)