duncan228
06-26-2008, 04:41 PM
http://www.star-telegram.com/304/story/724324.html
Having top pick in NBA Draft doesn’t mean instant success
By JAN HUBBARD
In NBA Draft history, there have been perfect storms.
In 1979, with a pick they had obtained by losing free agent Gail Goodrich to New Orleans, the Los Angeles Lakers selected Magic Johnson with the first pick in the draft. He joined a team anchored by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Lakers won the championship the next season.
In 1956, Bill Russell — believe it or not — was only the second player taken in the draft after Duquesne guard Sihugo Green. Russell, who obviously should have been the top pick, was selected by the St. Louis Hawks and traded to the Boston Celtics, who in Russell’s rookie season went on to win the first of 11 championships during a 13-year stretch.
There also have been near-perfect storms. In 1997, the San Antonio Spurs drafted Tim Duncan with the first pick in the draft. The Spurs were in the lottery only because David Robinson missed 76 games with back and foot injuries. It didn’t happen in the first season, but Duncan and Robinson led the Spurs to the 1999 NBA title in Duncan’s second year.
The 2008 NBA Draft will be held in New York tonight and the top two players — Memphis guard Derrick Rose and Kansas State forward Michael Beasley — have generated excitement for their prospective teams.
But in terms of winning a title next season, history says forget it. Only the very special even get close. And very few even improve their teams enough to get it into the playoffs.
Consider the 10 No. 1 picks that have been made since the Spurs selected Duncan. Only one of the players taken with the top pick has been on a team that made the playoffs the next season. Toronto chose Andrea Bargnani in 2006 and qualified for the playoffs.
t Bargnani was a role player who averaged 11.6 points and started only two games during that season.
Yao Ming could not get a lottery team to the playoffs. Neither could LeBron James or Dwight Howard.
"Except in rare situations, like San Antonio and Duncan," said Mavericks’ consultant Del Harris, who was a head coach in the NBA for 13 years, "the top players always come to a team that’s not very good. So they are young, inexperienced and have little help."
It might be slightly different this season because Rose is expected to join the Bulls, who had a 49-33 record two years ago and were expected to contend for the Eastern Conference title last season. The Bulls struggled, fired coach Scott Skiles and dropped to 33-49, but won the lottery with the ninth-worst record in the league.
"The Bulls are a little different because they had success with that group," said Harris, who has interviewed for a job as a Bulls assistant. "The other factor is that in the East, regardless of the fact that they have the champion, there are still only four higher quality teams — Boston and Detroit, and behind them Cleveland and Orlando. It would be a little bit harder for the Bulls to be much better if they were in the West."
Bulls general manager John Paxson is aware of the opportunity. Although he has not committed to drafting Rose instead of Beasley, he knows that adding a top talent to a young group of veterans should enable the Bulls to challenge for a playoff spot.
"Having this pick puts you in a unique position to make your team better," Paxson said after winning the top pick at the draft lottery.
"We are technically the youngest team in the league, and we’re going to add another terrific young player to this roster."
The flip side, however, is one that Harris experienced in his final year as head coach of the Rockets. In 1982, the Rockets lost free agent Moses Malone to the Philadelphia 76ers and went on to win only 14 games.
At the time, there was a coin flip to determine the No. 1 pick and Houston won. The prize was 7-foot-4 Ralph Sampson, who was expected to have the same sort of impact that Bill Walton and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had when they left college.
Harris was not around to coach Sampson because he was fired and replaced by Bill Fitch. But even with someone who Rockets general manager Ray Patterson called "the player of the century," the Rockets managed to win only 28 games the next season.
"They finished last again, won the coin flip and drafted Hakeem [Olajuwon]," Harris said. "Even with Ralph, they were one of the two worst teams in the league."
The top teams will be thrilled with the talented players they draft tonight. But no one will be dreaming of a championship banner next season.
History says, in fact, that the rookies’ impact on the playoff race will be later rather than sooner.
Having top pick in NBA Draft doesn’t mean instant success
By JAN HUBBARD
In NBA Draft history, there have been perfect storms.
In 1979, with a pick they had obtained by losing free agent Gail Goodrich to New Orleans, the Los Angeles Lakers selected Magic Johnson with the first pick in the draft. He joined a team anchored by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Lakers won the championship the next season.
In 1956, Bill Russell — believe it or not — was only the second player taken in the draft after Duquesne guard Sihugo Green. Russell, who obviously should have been the top pick, was selected by the St. Louis Hawks and traded to the Boston Celtics, who in Russell’s rookie season went on to win the first of 11 championships during a 13-year stretch.
There also have been near-perfect storms. In 1997, the San Antonio Spurs drafted Tim Duncan with the first pick in the draft. The Spurs were in the lottery only because David Robinson missed 76 games with back and foot injuries. It didn’t happen in the first season, but Duncan and Robinson led the Spurs to the 1999 NBA title in Duncan’s second year.
The 2008 NBA Draft will be held in New York tonight and the top two players — Memphis guard Derrick Rose and Kansas State forward Michael Beasley — have generated excitement for their prospective teams.
But in terms of winning a title next season, history says forget it. Only the very special even get close. And very few even improve their teams enough to get it into the playoffs.
Consider the 10 No. 1 picks that have been made since the Spurs selected Duncan. Only one of the players taken with the top pick has been on a team that made the playoffs the next season. Toronto chose Andrea Bargnani in 2006 and qualified for the playoffs.
t Bargnani was a role player who averaged 11.6 points and started only two games during that season.
Yao Ming could not get a lottery team to the playoffs. Neither could LeBron James or Dwight Howard.
"Except in rare situations, like San Antonio and Duncan," said Mavericks’ consultant Del Harris, who was a head coach in the NBA for 13 years, "the top players always come to a team that’s not very good. So they are young, inexperienced and have little help."
It might be slightly different this season because Rose is expected to join the Bulls, who had a 49-33 record two years ago and were expected to contend for the Eastern Conference title last season. The Bulls struggled, fired coach Scott Skiles and dropped to 33-49, but won the lottery with the ninth-worst record in the league.
"The Bulls are a little different because they had success with that group," said Harris, who has interviewed for a job as a Bulls assistant. "The other factor is that in the East, regardless of the fact that they have the champion, there are still only four higher quality teams — Boston and Detroit, and behind them Cleveland and Orlando. It would be a little bit harder for the Bulls to be much better if they were in the West."
Bulls general manager John Paxson is aware of the opportunity. Although he has not committed to drafting Rose instead of Beasley, he knows that adding a top talent to a young group of veterans should enable the Bulls to challenge for a playoff spot.
"Having this pick puts you in a unique position to make your team better," Paxson said after winning the top pick at the draft lottery.
"We are technically the youngest team in the league, and we’re going to add another terrific young player to this roster."
The flip side, however, is one that Harris experienced in his final year as head coach of the Rockets. In 1982, the Rockets lost free agent Moses Malone to the Philadelphia 76ers and went on to win only 14 games.
At the time, there was a coin flip to determine the No. 1 pick and Houston won. The prize was 7-foot-4 Ralph Sampson, who was expected to have the same sort of impact that Bill Walton and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had when they left college.
Harris was not around to coach Sampson because he was fired and replaced by Bill Fitch. But even with someone who Rockets general manager Ray Patterson called "the player of the century," the Rockets managed to win only 28 games the next season.
"They finished last again, won the coin flip and drafted Hakeem [Olajuwon]," Harris said. "Even with Ralph, they were one of the two worst teams in the league."
The top teams will be thrilled with the talented players they draft tonight. But no one will be dreaming of a championship banner next season.
History says, in fact, that the rookies’ impact on the playoff race will be later rather than sooner.