Depends on whether you believe $89 is around $100.Quote:
Have oil prices really dropped, or are they still around $100?
It had its first positive trading day in five days after hitting an eight-month low.
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Depends on whether you believe $89 is around $100.Quote:
Have oil prices really dropped, or are they still around $100?
It had its first positive trading day in five days after hitting an eight-month low.
Reading that article this bit struck me:
What happens to that mountain of US consumer debt if there is deflation?Quote:
Consumption goods cannot easily liquidated for currency. While it is true that the American consumer who has bought a DVD player from Japan with his credit card is not short dollars might enjoy a bit of inflation to lower the real cost of his debt, he is not short dollars and long yen. Let him try to sell his DVD player on eBay for a few Yen so he can buy back some dollars and “cover his short”. The banks of China and Japan have obliged them by purchasing the dollars from their domestic producers, and then loaning those dollars back to the Federal Government through the purchase of Treasury debt, and now are very much long dollars.
The article does talk about a lot of what is going on today...
Quote:
[Would a recessionary collapse of the supply of goods available in the US affect the dollar’s privileged status? Would a banking crisis in the US threaten the privileged position of its currency? If demand for dollars as a reserve asset were to diminish, that can only be seen as most bearish for its exchange value. If dollar creditors finally recognized the impossibility of their debt every being repaid, would they start to sell their assets? Or would they sell Treasuries and start buying other riskier US assets, in an attempt to triage the losses by propping up the system a bit longer?
The inflation-deflation issue is indeed quite puzzling due to the myriad of interacting factors, both correlated and cantilevered. I do not mean to suggest that the inflationary response that engendered by a deflationary crisis is in any sense a sustainable solution to the excesses of the preceding boom. Such a program would surely result in a hyperinflationary recession, rather than a deflationary one. The Austrian view is that that resource mis-allocations of a credit-driven boom require a recession to be cleansed. This tells us that distortions in the real economy cannot be erased by changes in monetary policy (conventional or un-).
As a policy recommendation, to allow the deflationary bust to do its work would be the best path. But as financial writer James Grant has written, if there is one thing that governments excel at, it is debasing their own currency.
Again, was that the futures price, or actual price? That doesn't mean the oil companies pay that much. Just means the person buying the futures may make a large profit!Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
Have you ever researched the commodities and futures markets?
Time to ask intrade.com for some new categories.Quote:
Originally Posted by smeagol
You asked about the price of oil. I gave you the price of oil. If you are incapable of looking it up for yourself, you'll just have to take my word for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Cobra
If you knew, you would tell me, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
The price of oil here are often confused with the futures. That's why I asked for clarity, which, being the ASS you are, refuse to tell me. Would it have been hard for you to not be an ASS for once and tell me what you quoted was spot price?
OK, It appears the spot price is at $89. Good. I do hope they drop farther. Real hard to say, so many factors influence the price. Looks like OPEC is unable to keep their members from fighting for production increases.
Let me ask you this. With the drop in demand we have because of oil prices, it it hard to believe we would keep lower prices with the increased USA supply from ANWR and added continental shelf drilling? If we were allowed...
I knew and I told you, you stupid piece of shit.Quote:
If you knew, you would tell me, right?
And look, I said something and it was true. Learn from that, liar.
How much? No one has ever been able to say how much. I'm asking.Quote:
Let me ask you this. With the drop in demand we have because of oil prices, it it hard to believe we would keep lower prices with the increased USA supply from ANWR and added continental shelf drilling? If we were allowed...
Seriously. This article makes for some VERY interesting reading. I would recommend it to anyone even vaguely interested in the crisis who had some knowledge of finance.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomGuy
He is describing, in 2004, what is likely going on today.
Not that anyone knows where we will end up .
I'm stupid for asking for clarification when you confuse so many things?Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
OK...
Again, start a new thread on my lying please. I cannot think of a single instance.
I don't know, but $89 from $130+ is a nice drop. I do wonder how much of the drop is simple supply vs. demand pricing. If any significant amount can be atrributed to lower demand, then more drilling will make a signoificant difference as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
You are the one who backtracks every time he is called out on one of his lies. I know you feel kind of stupid that you found out I was exactly right, but that's nothing new either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Cobra
That itself is a lie. :lolQuote:
Again, start a new thread on my lying please. I cannot think of a single instance.
Then quit acting like you do. It's just another lie.Quote:
I don't know.
Well, once you lived through:Quote:
Originally Posted by 2centsworth
1) 10% daily inflation increases throughout an entire month, including riots of people ransacking supermarkets for food.
2) You money depreciating and eventually losing 3 digits.
3) Caps in the amount of money you can withdraw from your bank account.
4) Forceful conversion of your investments in foreign currency into the local currency.
then you realize that how far you fall is not the problem. The hit you take when you hit rock bottom hurts a shitload no matter what. I actually experienced point 2 at least 3 or 4 times in my lifetime already.
One of the reason for accepting the job offer here in the US was actually that crap like all of the above does not happen here. And I'm pretty confident we're not going to get there. But if it happens, that would be nothing new... :lol
I swear to god WC tilts me like no other. The fucking price of oil is given to me and he asks what the price of oil is. Jesus.
Why should that matter? Given to you? I was asking if the price was under $100. I see no place you asked the price... Where is your quote?Quote:
Originally Posted by MannyIsGod
My question was "Have oil prices really dropped, or are they still around $100?" I wasn't aware the spot price went to $89. Too often, people confuse the prices between spot and futures. I explained that. I was trying to get clarification, and concedded the $89 was right.
Where's the problem? Are you just looking for a reason to find fault in me, or are you Chump... and because I don't respond to Chump now, you have to start an argument?
I haven't responded to the polling question. The simple fact is, I don't know. I believe we will now sink into a recession, or more because of the bailout. That might not be so if what I heard on the radio today is true. The Feds are doing what I asked for all along. The Federal Reserve will back up the banks for loans. Funny, that's not part of the $700 billion handout to corporate elitists. Of course, this will probably remain quiet, and if they do it properly, it will stop the bleeding. If it alone was announced, I don't think we would have the drops in the markets we do now. I think it is the bailout that is doing damage, not the lack of bailout.
I predict the following:
The Federal Reserve will back up bank loans, with little or no media attention.
The crisis will end after a few months of termoil, and market adjustments.
The Bailout plan will get credit, again, with no mention of the Federal Reserve help.
Geez, paranoid much?Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Cobra
And finding fault with you is as easy as reading one of your posts.
That’s funny, when I was reading your excerpts from the article I was going to say that it sounds like Richard Duncan’s “The Dollar Crisis”, and then the writer talks about that book in the article. That book might be the best analysis of today’s situation that I’ve read. Make sure you get the revised version; it was originally published in 2003 but the revised edition was published in ’05 and contains more chapters covering the events between those years. Duncan needs to put out a third edition. I’ve been meaning to suggest that book here, but I don’t think I ever did.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomGuy
As the article says, the Fed is the purchaser of last resort in addition to the lender of last resort, and ultimately, they can purchase anything they feel is necessary – anything at all. Today it’s commercial paper; tomorrow, who knows. But if they ever have to make massive purchases of T-bills from foreign sellers, or if foreigners stop or significantly slow down their purchases and the Fed has to make up the difference, then that’s the endgame for the global dollar standard, the end of export led growth (the exact title of one of Duncan’s chapters) in Asia and elsewhere, and the end of the trade deficit and the US’s binge on imports. But even though the author of the article makes another good case against all of this ending in deflation, IIRC, Duncan predicts in his book that this post Bretton Woods global dollar standard will end in global deflation after one last big run of inflation, followed by failed attempts at stabilization (even in the revised edition) unless some drastic measures are enacted worldwide (and I mean drastic – a global minimum wage, turning the IMF into a real global central bank that has the authority to control the world’s money supply by increasing the role of the IMF’s Special Drawing Right – kind of makes the NA dollar plan/”conspiracy theory” seem boring, doesn’t it? :lol ).
[Edit: Yeah, the second to last chapter is called “After Reflation, Deflation”] Maybe he changed his mind in the last 3 years. I’ll have to take the time to find and read something more recent from him.
Also, I asked my crystal ball what it thought about the short term economy, and it told me “signs point to yes”, whatever that means.
I think we are in inning 3 of a 9 inning recession. It will be a stronger recession than 01-03 but not near a depression.
I don't think $50-$60 oil is unreasonable. The recession is global, not just in the USA, so oil demand will be declining. The price was also deeply inflated by speculators and was a big bubble.
I think the commodity bubble is going to burst hard (copper, oil, and natural gas already are), which will be a silver lining which will help propel a future recovery.
The next administration needs to act prudently and institute smart and targeted regulation, but not overly burdensome regulation just to try to make up for what's happened. Tax hikes that Obama is proposing need to be thrown out the window in light of the intensifying recessionary environment.
I think the unemployment # is a flawed statistic, so it's not really super relevant. Underemployment is not taken into account and neither are people who have been out of work for several months, get frustrated, and stop looking for jobs when they would be actively searching if jobs they qualified for were available. The unemployment # is understated. The job picture is going to suck for the next 12 months. Flat wages and underemployment.
Fed funds rate to 1% by year's end or early next year.
Unemployment for all of its flaws does incidate the direction of overall employment, if not the exact figures.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyjoe
Yup.Quote:
Originally Posted by MannyIsGod
When you show him to be wrong about something, instead of manning-up to it, he will split hairs and prevaricate endlessly.
"but, but, but, but..."
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2centsworth
layoffs have been huge recently with Chrysler just announcing a 25% cut in its white collar workforce. Unemployment should get close to 7% by next month.
Oil is inching closer to $60.
Advice for the average joe is to have ZERO debt and learn to cook.
Our dollar is at a 13 year low to the yen.
It's all relative, but I've gotta agree with this. Even a serious 5 year recession wouldn't put me personally in a worse position than, say, the average person living in Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Somalia, or East Timor.Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
* reposted below*
Did you think in 1992 that Clinton be a disaster economically?Quote:
Originally Posted by 2centsworth
Fiscally conservative Democrat Executive and a conservative Republican Congress worked out well economically.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tully365
Agreed. But I clearly remember many saying Clinton would be a typical tax-and-spend guy who would quickly double the deficit and endanger the future of our grandchildren, etc,... and what we got, IMHO, was the most pragmatic and least ideological Executive (economically) of our time, a man who according to Alan Greenspan's memoir, was "obsessed" with eliminating the deficit.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2centsworth