Economic Crystal Ball

Can I change my vote now that it looks like Obama is the next president and will have super majority?

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Originally Posted by Tully365

Agreed. But I clearly remember many saying Clinton would be a typical tax-and-spend guy who would quickly double the deficit and endanger the future of our grandchildren, etc,... and what we got, imo, was the most pragmatic and least ideological Executive (economically) of our time, a man who according to Alan Greenspan's memoir, was "obsessed" with eliminating the deficit.

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I voted for Clinton, so I saw him as someone who wanted to increase educational opportunities and move more people from welfare to work.

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Originally Posted by 2centsworth

I voted for Clinton, so I saw him as someone who wanted to increase educational opportunities and move more people from welfare to work.

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I think one of the most unfortunate results of our political environment is the fact that even those politicians who attempt to compromise and solve problems pragmatically either get cast as party traitors or continue to be characterized by the other side with the same cliches, even if the facts clearly say otherwise.

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Originally Posted by Tully365

I think one of the most unfortunate results of our political environment is the fact that even those politicians who attempt to compromise and solve problems pragmatically either get cast as party traitors or continue to be characterized by the other side with the same cliches, even if the facts clearly say otherwise.

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unfortunately, in the case of Obama, all we have is his rhetoric.

Sadly, I think the economy will be in trouble for quite a while, and the only thing I hear from Washington is the idea of throwing more money at the problem.

damn I'm smart.

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Recession, but we'll be okay in a year or so.

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How long is "so?"

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Originally Posted by Wild Cobra

How long is "so?"

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also, what is "ok"?


the point was, the end of the world wasn't imminent.


I'll have another year or so prediction soon.

btw, when I said

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reinstitute the FHA 235 program.

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that's almost exactly what Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan, recently said in a CNBC interview that got a lot of national headlines.

http://chattahbox.com/business/2009/...uffer-a-crash/

Creepy:

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Originally Posted by Nassim Taleb

“We’re in the middle of a crash.” “So if I’m going to forecast something, it is that it’s going to get worse, not better,” said Taleb.

Taleb described our global financial systemhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adT...lass_10x10.gif as extremely fragile that is destined to crash. He referred to stimulus programs as an example of monetary policy that’s out of control, producing little “green shoots” of economic recovery, “…but you are still in a world that’s breaking,” said Taleb.


Taleb advised the U.S. government to deleverage debt and not rely on stimulus packages that will only inflate assets. He recommended that the government convince banks to take aggressive, large-scale steps to convert debt into equity. He called for a worldwide, deleveraging of debt totaling $40-to-$70 trillion:wow,” to make a transition into a more stable financial environment.

Taleb suggested that banks attempt to negotiate with homeowners on the verge of foreclosure, offering to lower monthly payments in return for part-ownership of the property, averting foreclosures and additional debt on the banks’ balance sheets. [ FHA 235? -Ed.]

“The monkey on our back is debt,” said Taleb. Government leaders need to “take the devil by the horn” and aggressively deleverage our massive debt into equity or suffer the consequences of a global financial crash.

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But how is deleveraging debt going to get me re-elected?

- every politician

Were you impressed with the amount of deleveraging recommended, CG?

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

Creepy:

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Why is it creepy?

He started predicting these events in 2007.

Maybe you've gotten over it already.

Maybe the rest of us haven't.

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

Were you impressed with the amount of deleveraging recommended, CG?

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Sadly, not really. With just the U.S. government being something like $14 trillion in the hole on their own I figured the rest of the financial sector and personal debt would be several times that.

It kinda freaks me out that we're not going to deal with a $40-70 trillion debt problem.

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

It kinda freaks me out that we're not going to deal with a $40-70 trillion problem.

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Don't forget medicare and social security. It kinda freaks me out that we're not going to deal with either of our $40-$70 trillion dollar problems.

Too bad this poll doesn't show who voted for what.

I think I went tongue-in-cheek *sandwich board* on this poll. The end is near.

Wishy-washy options #2 and #3 are almost exactly alike, leaving two shitty choices for everyone who isn't wishy-washy.

viz., prophesying the end times, or boutons.

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

Wishy-washy options #2 and #3 are almost exactly alike, leaving two shitty choices for everyone who isn't wishy-washy.

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Good point. I just barely glanced at the questions. He basically designed it so that most would pick #2.

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Originally Posted by coyotes_geek

Don't forget medicare and social security. It kinda freaks me out that we're not going to deal with either of our $40-$70 trillion dollar problems.

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Touche', CG. :king

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

Creepy:

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Yes, fha235 is converting debt to equity as taleb described