The Suns will make the NBA Finals

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Originally Posted by Supergirl

The reason the Spurs are better than the Suns is because Parker is better than Nash. Nash can't stop Parker, and Parker and Bowen combined do an effective job on Nash.

The Amare/Duncan match up has become close to the KG/Duncan match up - the pretty much neutralize each other.

Suns don't have anyone who can defend as well as Bowen's little toe, for chrissakes.

Spurs have the edge. Esp in a 7 game series. However, I would not be surprised to see it be Spurs and SUns in the WCF, though I'm not sure the Suns are better than the Sonics. Sonics have more depth, esp at C.

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I disagree, the advantage the Spurs have is their experience and depth. Although the depth factor is not what it once was.

I had to laugh when you cited Parker's advantage over Nash but yet you pointed out that both Parker and Bowen combined to guard him. Parker needs Bowen's help to guard Nash but then Nash had no help in the first game against Parker.

Parker went nuts in the first game because nobody stepped up to stop penetration into the lane. The Suns were overly concerned with Duncan and it was a layup drill for Parker. That did not happen in the second game. Parker was sick or whatever but the defense was much better position wise on Parker to start the game.

The Suns have some decent defenders in Marion and Johnson but they don't hold and handcheck as skillfully as Bowen. :spin

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Originally Posted by TDfan2007

we were .4 seconds away from winning that series so i wouldn't say that the Spurs took a beating. The lakers were outclassed in just about every one of those 5 games against the Pistons, can't say the same about the Spurs - Lakers WCSF series.

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Spurs lost the series 4-2, Game 5 was the only one that was really close, and that also took a miracle Duncan shot for the 0.4 shot to even exist.

And I disagree about the Pistons series, Lakers outplayed the Pistons down the stretch and beat them handily in Game 2 OT. The rest of the series, sure, you're right about that, they were totally outplayed.

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Originally Posted by Hook Dem

Lakerwad.....may the rain gods give you about 10 more inches causing you to fall off into the ocean and dragging your Fakers with you!

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My god > your god.

Suns opps. avg 103 points.

Suns defense sucks harder than LakerGod's mom.

"Suns opps. avg 103 points."

Wiz opps. avg 102 ppg (at the time we played @WAS, Wiz were NBA 30th in points allowed), and Spurs' Tim-less offense couldn't score enough to win @Wiz.

I dont talk to much in here, but somebody needs to lock this badboy up.....like yesterday. Charlie would be more than happy to grab him by the neck and show em how we do it on the southside.

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Originally Posted by E20

For some reason a lot of Laker fans around here are now abandoning the Lakers and switching to the Suns.

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No, the Laker fans are still Laker fans.

It's the bandwagon untermenschen who are switching. Somewhere in LakerGod's closet is an old, faded MJ jersey.

He has been once and forever been named LakerFraud. Please do not refer to him in any other fashion.

Spurs 4 - Suns 1

Shick shick

Spurs 4

Suns 3

SirChaz,

Props to you for bringing basketball discussion without resorting to flaming and baiting. It's nice to have intelligent fans of other teams here! Keep bringing that shit...

I'll tell you why I think the Spurs can take the Suns in a seven-game series: half-court execution. The Spurs are the best in the league at transition defense, and Phoenix relies heavily on easy buckets. Nash, of course, has the ability to create easy shots off the pick and roll, but the Spurs defensive system is designed to funnel the ball-handler into our shot-blockers...leaving opponents with no choice but to shoot jumpers. Phoenix definitely can shoot, and if they get hot they'll win a game or two (see how Seattle handled us earlier this year)...but not four out of seven. Live by the jumper, die by the jumper. It just takes too many things going right for a jump-shooting team to survive in the post-season. In the front 82, the Suns can kill teams by running and shooting from the outside, but, forced into the half-court, I just don't see them surviving against a team that's played half-court ball all year. The Spurs have had so many more opportunities to execute their half-court sets that in a high-pressure situation, they'll make fewer mistakes. Combine that with a philosophy that allows no mistakes on the defensive end (especially when it comes to transition D), and you've gotta give the edge to the Spurs. It'll be a really entertaining series, because no one can stop Phoenix for seven straight games, but the Spurs can beat you either way: run with you like we did last game, or ugly the game up, historically a Spurs specialty. Phoenix just doesn't grind out ugly games the way San Antonio does. And in the playoffs, games definitely get ugly.

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Originally Posted by tekdragon

I'll tell you why I think the Spurs can take the Suns in a seven-game series: half-court execution. The Spurs are the best in the league at transition defense, and Phoenix relies heavily on easy buckets. Nash, of course, has the ability to create easy shots off the pick and roll, but the Spurs defensive system is designed to funnel the ball-handler into our shot-blockers...leaving opponents with no choice but to shoot jumpers. Phoenix definitely can shoot, and if they get hot they'll win a game or two (see how Seattle handled us earlier this year)...but not four out of seven. Live by the jumper, die by the jumper. It just takes too many things going right for a jump-shooting team to survive in the post-season. In the front 82, the Suns can kill teams by running and shooting from the outside, but, forced into the half-court, I just don't see them surviving against a team that's played half-court ball all year. The Spurs have had so many more opportunities to execute their half-court sets that in a high-pressure situation, they'll make fewer mistakes. Combine that with a philosophy that allows no mistakes on the defensive end (especially when it comes to transition D), and you've gotta give the edge to the Spurs. It'll be a really entertaining series, because no one can stop Phoenix for seven straight games, but the Spurs can beat you either way: run with you like we did last game, or ugly the game up, historically a Spurs specialty. Phoenix just doesn't grind out ugly games the way San Antonio does. And in the playoffs, games definitely get ugly.

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I couldn't agree more. It's exactly what happened in the 2003 WCF. Certainly, the Mavericks were harmed by not having Dirk healthy, but even when Dirk was healthy, the Spurs were able to keep the Mavericks scores fairly low by forcing them to play in the half-court. That forced change in style didn't match what Dallas had seen in the regular season and when they had to play in the half-court, their vaunted offense was far less potent.

I think the last Spurs/Suns game proved, in a microcosm, the live by the jump shot, die by the jump shot reality. Phoenix built its lead with uncanny shooting, but when the Spurs pushed back, the Suns went stone cold and gave the Spurs an opportunity to steal the game. If you rely on jump shots and penetration in transition, and believe that you can get by on "just enough defense," the playoffs tend to provide a rude awakening.

If they meet, it will be an interesting clash of styles.

i remember in recent year the dallas mavericks using the same kind of tactics the suns do, with many more scorers and VERY similar point guard, however it never amounted to much.

^they were good and the Suns are very good too, but because of Detroit's suffocating defense, and Miami's inside defense(dont know about their perimeter defense) I find it unlikely they win it because when their offense is shut down, they arent gonna have the defense to stop the other team. Thats the only flaw i find with it really.

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Originally Posted by td4mvp21

^they were good and the Suns are very good too, but because of Detroit's suffocating defense, and Miami's inside defense(dont know about their perimeter defense) I find it unlikely they win it because when their offense is shut down, they arent gonna have the defense to stop the other team. Thats the only flaw i find with it really.

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That assumes teams can shut down their offense for 4 games. The defense is not as bad as everyone thinks. The 103 ppg is a little misleading because other teams get more opportunities because the Suns often score quickly.

The Suns have to be one of the toughest teams (if not the toughest) in the league to guard when they are playing well. Many of thier diffiencies have been hidden by the transistion baskets and 3pt shooting. While those things will be reduced in the playoffs they will not go away completely. They also have an inside presense and a very potent half court attack although the execution suffers at times.

They other thing about the Suns is they are still growing. They have a decent bench lately and overall the team is improving. It is hard to say where they(or any other team) will be in a month.

To start the season I would have been happy with a playoff apperance and at the outside the division title. Nobody thought they would be 46-14 so I will not say a finals apperance or a title can't happen but based on recent history I would agree that they are not the favorites.

^Yeah maybe not this year but in a couple of years when they are not so young and when they get more defense they will be a big threat.

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Originally Posted by SirChaz

That assumes teams can shut down their offense for 4 games. The defense is not as bad as everyone thinks. The 103 ppg is a little misleading because other teams get more opportunities because the Suns often score quickly.

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The Suns are a middle-of-the-road defensive team. They don't suck at it. The Sonics do.

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The Suns have to be one of the toughest teams (if not the toughest) in the league to guard when they are playing well. Many of thier diffiencies have been hidden by the transistion baskets and 3pt shooting. While those things will be reduced in the playoffs they will not go away completely. They also have an inside presense and a very potent half court attack although the execution suffers at times.

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One key difference you will see in the postseason is that teams will work much harder to get back in transition against the Suns. Fast breaks off made baskets will not happen like they do now. The Suns are not bad in the halfcourt, but like you said, the execution is suspect, and they don't have the defense to carry them if they're forced to play halfcourt and the shots aren't falling.

Their defense is good enough only if the offense is working OK. They don't have a Michael Cooper or a Kareem.

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They other thing about the Suns is they are still growing. They have a decent bench lately and overall the team is improving. It is hard to say where they(or any other team) will be in a month.

To start the season I would have been happy with a playoff apperance and at the outside the division title. Nobody thought they would be 46-14 so I will not say a finals apperance or a title can't happen but based on recent history I would agree that they are not the favorites.

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I think the Suns will take a couple of years to get over the hump, like most teams.

Can't disagree much with the last two posts.

I guess we will all find out soon enough.


Should be a good game tonight.

The Suns defense is grossly underrated. People base the Suns defense off of Points Allowed Per game which is hardly a measuring stick for defensive prowess. There are a lot of factors that go into how good a defense is. Lazy people might think the Suns defense is the worst in the league, however if you actually look into the stats you will see they are more towards the middle if not above the middle of the pack.

One of the better such measuring sticks for defense is Points Allowed Per 100 possessions. This fairly ranks defenses because it factors in the speed of the teams offense. Why is it fair to the Suns defense when they have to defend 8 more opposing possessions per game than the Hornets? It's true that the Hornets give up only 95 PPG (ranking them 8th in the league) and the Suns give up 103 (ranking last). However the Suns allow the same Points Per 100 possessions as the Hornets (think of it this way... giving weight to Points Allowed per game is essentially the same as say Rebounds Per Game... the Suns rank 5th in the league in total rebounds per game while the Spurs rank 9th... but no one in their right mind will argue the Suns are a better rebounding team than the Spurs... it's the same logic... there are other factors at work here).

Here is a list of teams that allow the same or more Points Per 100 possessions as the Suns:
Hawks
Charlotte
Warriors
Lakers
Bucks
Timberwolves
Hornets
Knicks
Trailblazers
Kings
Supersonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

Meanwhile the Magic, Clippers, and Celtics average a measly 1 point per 100 possessions less than the Suns.

Essentially the Suns rank 15th in the league in Points allowed per 100 possessions (and are 1 point away from 11th) which is hardly as bad as some people make their defense seem to be. Think about this stat however, only one team in the league other than the Suns score 110 or more points per 100 possessions, which is the Miami heat at 111. The Suns average 115, which is head and shoulders above the rest. One thing people don't realize is that the Suns offense is part of their defense. They allow teams to do certain things, that other teams don't, to maximize their fast breaks and total points. The Suns could play stiffer defense, by say playing Hunter at center, but their team isn't nearly as good with him on the court.

The Suns eFG% allowed is also better than a lot of people might think. (eFG% adjusts FG% with 3Pt shooting).
The Suns have a better eFG% allowed than the following teams:

Hawks
Celtics
Bobcats
Nuggets
Warriors
Clippers
Bucks
Nets
Hornets
Knicks
Sixers
Blazers
Kings
Sonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

There are another 5 teams that are 0.4% better than the Suns in eFG% allowed (which is almost negligible):
Pacers .004 better
Mavericks .004 better
T-Wolves .002 better
Cavilers .002 better
Lakers .002 better

This means that the Suns are a mere .004 off of having the 7th best rated defense in eFG% allowed. Not too shabby. Also only 2 teams other than the Suns in the league have an eFG% on offense above 50%. The Suns eFG% is 53.5%, which ranks number one in the league. Again part of the Suns defense is their offense.

When I say the Suns defense is their offense you have to think way back to the early 90's to understand why this works. To compare the Suns to a team today is ridiculous (and don't even begin to mention the Mavericks of the past couple seasons who haven't even come close to the matching this Suns offense this season.. I mean the Suns average over 5 PPG than even the best Maverick team which was in 2002). In the early 90's teams scored a lot more points and also gave up quite a bit too. There is a tradeoff. You see it's impossible for the Suns to give up say 95 PPG (like the lowly Hornets do) and still score 110.8 PPG (which would probably rank as the greatest point differential of all time). But are you going to pretend that if the Suns players magically turned into the Hornets while on defense they'd have the greatest team of all time (which it would essentially be with a 15.8 point differential)? No way, they'd actually probably give up more than their current 103 points allowed per game. To really get a grasp on the Suns defense you have to find comparable teams to them, which would mean finding a team that has averaged close to or the same points per game as the Suns. You have to go back to 1993 to find even two teams that score more points per game than the Suns do today.

Since the 1993 season only two teams have scored more PPG than the Phoenix Suns do today. Those teams are:

1993 Phoenix Suns at 113.4 PPG
1995 Orlando Magic at 110.9 PPG

Oddly enough both the Magic and Suns made it to the NBA finals in their respective years.

And for comparison:
2004 Phoenix Suns at 110.8 PPG


Now for the important part: How many points did both these team ALLOW per game?

1995 Orlando gave up 103.8 PPG
1993 Phoenix gave up 106.7 PPG.

For comparison:
2004 Phoenix Suns at 103 PPG

Amazing! How could those teams have possibly made it to the NBA finals? According to P Allowed PG they SUCK at defense. Heck they're worse than '04 Phoenix, and '93 Phoenix is A LOT worse. Actually neither '93 Phoenix nor '95 Orlando was actually that bad on defense, and neither is '04 Phoenix.

Sadly most of what I've had to say will go in one ear and out the other for most people. You'll go on believing that the Suns defense is terrible and because of this they have no shot at the title. You'll go on believing that Points Allowed Per game is the end all of defensive measuring sticks, as do most people that watch the NBA. However what you believe is faulty logic based off of mundane statistics. This Suns team is for real, whether you like it or not.

Interesting post, except that you're essentially comparing the Suns to:

Hawks
Charlotte
Warriors
Lakers
Bucks
Timberwolves
Hornets
Knicks
Trailblazers
Kings
Supersonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

in one category, and:

Hawks
Celtics
Bobcats
Nuggets
Warriors
Clippers
Bucks
Nets
Hornets
Knicks
Sixers
Blazers
Kings
Sonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

in another.

Not the greatest measuring stick. What is the combined record of the above teams?

Isn't that a bit like saying you're better statistically than the Arizona Cardinals? Who isn't?

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Originally Posted by tekdragon

Interesting post, except that you're essentially comparing the Suns to:

Hawks
Charlotte
Warriors
Lakers
Bucks
Timberwolves
Hornets
Knicks
Trailblazers
Kings
Supersonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

in one category, and:

Hawks
Celtics
Bobcats
Nuggets
Warriors
Clippers
Bucks
Nets
Hornets
Knicks
Sixers
Blazers
Kings
Sonics
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

in another.

Not the greatest measuring stick. What is the combined record of the above teams?

Isn't that a bit like saying you're better statistically than the Arizona Cardinals? Who isn't?

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Well for one thing the Super Sonics are below the Suns in both categories. While the Kings, Wolves, Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Wizards are in at least one of the two. Hardly crappy teams.

However the most important aspect of this post was to show how the Suns defense stacks up against the rest of the league. In this case their defense is actually better than average even by today's standards. But then again, as I stressed throughout the post, even these statistics don't tell the WHOLE story. To get a better understanding at how good the Suns are you have to compare them to teams of the past that put up comparable statistics. Why this should apply is because the Suns style of today is like no other seen for a decade, in this case the Suns are more comparable to the '93 Suns and the '95 Magic. Hardly the Arizona Cardinals if I don't mind saying so.

I don't disagree that you could find statistics to prove the Suns to be a better-than-thought defensive team. I can understand the urge to compare the Suns to teams of other eras. And I don't dispute that the Suns have a fine basketball team -- I, for one, will be surprised if they aren't around come the WCF.

But, I also think that you can't take a team from this era, look to statistical trends from another era, and extrapolate in an effort to define that team. The Suns might have fared very well in past eras -- they might even be among the best teams ever (on paper, at least) had they played in another era. But they don't. They play in an era where, year after year, the proven trend has been that defense overcomes offense come playoff time. The last 6 years are close to conclusive proof of that proposition. The offensive juggernauts of the NBA's recent history -- while certainly some ppg short of the Suns' current averages -- have made some runs into the playoffs, only to be shut down (for the most part) by the dominant defensive teams -- the teams that allow low PPG and low FG% against. You can couch it in any number of examples: the most obvious to those around here is the 2002-03 Mavericks, whose offensive efficiency number was best in the NBA (108.1 pts/100 poss.) and whose defensive efficiency number was a respectable 9th (96.6). But when push came to shove at playoff time, the Mavericks pure points per game average fell to 96.3 in the WCF, while the offensively-pedestrian Spurs raised theirs to 101.3 and won 4-2.

I'm not trying to say that Phoenix is without a chance; it's just that until they prove that the paradigm can be shifted, it's understandable that some would discount their real chances to win the title. I don't honestly think that tonight's game will have any real bearing on that issue, but it may create some drama as a backdrop to the Suns' effort to prove that great offense and okay defense can outlast good offense and great defense.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

I don't disagree that you could find statistics to prove the Suns to be a better-than-thought defensive team. I can understand the urge to compare the Suns to teams of other eras. And I don't dispute that the Suns have a fine basketball team -- I, for one, will be surprised if they aren't around come the WCF.

But, I also think that you can't take a team from this era, look to statistical trends from another era, and extrapolate in an effort to define that team. The Suns might have fared very well in past eras -- they might even be among the best teams ever (on paper, at least) had they played in another era. But they don't. They play in an era where, year after year, the proven trend has been that defense overcomes offense come playoff time. The last 6 years are close to conclusive proof of that proposition. The offensive juggernauts of the NBA's recent history -- while certainly some ppg short of the Suns' current averages -- have made some runs into the playoffs, only to be shut down (for the most part) by the dominant defensive teams -- the teams that allow low PPG and low FG% against. You can couch it in any number of examples: the most obvious to those around here is the 2002-03 Mavericks, whose offensive efficiency number was best in the NBA (108.1 pts/100 poss.) and whose defensive efficiency number was a respectable 9th (96.6). But when push came to shove at playoff time, the Mavericks pure points per game average fell to 96.3 in the WCF, while the offensively-pedestrian Spurs raised theirs to 101.3 and won 4-2.

I'm not trying to say that Phoenix is without a chance; it's just that until they prove that the paradigm can be shifted, it's understandable that some would discount their real chances to win the title. I don't honestly think that tonight's game will have any real bearing on that issue, but it may create some drama as a backdrop to the Suns' effort to prove that great offense and okay defense can outlast good offense and great defense.

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One thing people don't realize is that the Suns points scored differential compared to the second best team in the league in PPG is the largest in NBA history. (Dallas in #2 in PPG at 102.5PPG while the Suns are at 110.8PPG which is a differential of +8.3... the largest differential in NBA history). This is one of the reasons I feel compelled to at least see what teams did in the past that are more comparible to the Suns, because today there really isn't any comparison to how good the Suns really are. (yes the 2002 Mavs are the closest in recent memory... but they are not nearly as close as you would think... and for one the Mavs lost in 6 games in the WCF... which hardly means they were incapable of going all the way).

It's also not exactly true to say that in this ERA offense doesn't win championships. I did a statistical analysis a little while back of every team that had won the NBA championship since 1970. Here is what I found. 17 teams had a better league ranking in defense than offense, 16 teams had a better league ranking in offense than defense, and 2 teams had the same ranking in both offense and defense. Eight teams were ranked #1 (and five were ranked second) in the league in offense and seven had the #1 defense (2 teams had the second ranked defense) (only one had both #1's... the Bulls in one of their Jordan years). Get this however... 8 teams that won the NBA championship since 1970 had the #1-3 ranked offenses while having a defense ranked #9 or below in the league (one team even had a defense ranked 15th... which was quite recent). Here was essentially my conclusion to the analysis: you need either a great offense to win the championship or you need a great defense, however one does not reighn overly supreme over the other. True last year a team with a subpar offseason won the Championship (worst of any offense in the past 35 years that won the NBA championship) but as a whole, history tells us that either extreme can be the case in winning.

Here's what's so interesting about the Suns however. Their offense, as I mentioned before, doesn't just rank #1 in the league, it ranks #1 by the largest margin in the history of the league. What does this tell us? Well for one it could say that the Suns defense isn't quite as important as teams have needed in the past. I still don't even know what to make of it... the Suns are unlike any team I've ever seen (when comparing them to other teams of the same ERA).

I'm not saying the Suns are going to win the championship however. In most years, Yes, that's what I would say. However.... this years Spurs are probably one of the best teams I've seen in the past... I don't know... a VERY long time (perhaps that Bulls team that ranked #1 in both offense and defense were the last team I've seen that really challenge this years Spurs). The fact is you have two teams that are on another level of the competition in the same season: the Suns and Spurs. Two teams that are very different but are both VERY good. I am confident in saying that the Suns and Spurs will face each other in the Western Conference Finals. Who will win? Your guess is only as good as mine.

Who would've thought that a thread started by TakeYourWad would turn into actual basketball conversation. Good job, Suns fans!

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Originally Posted by tekdragon

Who would've thought that a thread started by TakeYourWad would turn into actual basketball conversation. Good job, Suns fans!

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No doubt. Props to tempe85 and sirchaz for bringing a good, solid take from an opposing camp. It gets a bit old listening to the canned b.s. from clowns like wolves009seed and lakerfraud.