Originally Posted by
2Cleva
I'll start back in 99.
LA before Phil was a mess. SA had the functional talent edge as well as experience factor that made it a bad draw for LA. I have always said and still believe LA doesn't three-peat nor win a ring that first year with Phil if it wasn't for Duncan's knee injury. LA simply didn't know how to win nor have the confidence to do so against a truely polished talented team. Thats why even Sac pushed them to 5 games (winning 2 elimination games), Portland to 7 (winning 2 elimination games), and Indy to 6 (winning 1 elimination game). A healthy Spurs team would have took LA out - no question in my mind at all.
However, come the next year, the experience of winning a title combined with SA getting old carried them through the next matchup. LA no longer had any fear of the Spurs and that swagger led to an easy series win.
Now, to last year. If fully healthy, SA again probably takes LA out (I'm not as sure as I was of 99-00 but SA would have been the favorites over LA with Ginobil healthy imo). LA's defense wasn't ready for the 4-headed attack of SA without Ariza or Bynum (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, 3pt shooting). But Ginobili not healthy allowed LA to focus on Duncan more, force SA back into their old habits of OK, and take what on paper was an easy win.
Now, onto this year, SA has some of the same problems as they did back in 00-01. LA is younger, more talented, and most importantly confident they can handle SA while the Spurs are again trying to solidify an identity (while facing injury/age problems too boot). Look at the 3 Lakers/Spurs games this season. Not once has LA, in victory or defeat, ever appeared worried or razzled by anything the Spurs did. No longer can SA dictate the tempo or how the game is played, no longer can Duncan dominate his matchup, LA has a kryptonite for the 2nd half of Parker every time, what's more SA doesn't hit the 3 as well against LA because LA respects SA enough to constantly try to chase them off the line.
Its history repeating itself already.
If SA had firepower they'd have a puncher's chance but they don't even have that. Can SA really count on 40 per from their non-stars nightly against LA? SA no longer has the perimeter D who can slow LA down. When the best defender is a rookie you're asking for playoff trouble when the refs give them no respect.
Honestly, assuming every player plays (I won't say is healthy because no one is 100% healthy by playoff time), SA doesn't have a single matchup advantage except Parker on Fisher but LA knows they can nuetralize that at will by putting Kobe or Ariza on Parker. What's more - SA as a whole doesn't have the playoff experience or savvy to carry it over. There is no Horry or Barry or Ellie that SA can lean on who will bring that touch off the bench.
All fans should support their teams. I'm not saying SA should wave the white flag. If the situation was reversed I wouldn't either. But to say its a tall order is an understatement and I can see why the OP is thinking long-term as opposed to this year. No point in going all-out to win the battle when you know you have to do much more than that to win the war.
Last year was SA's best for a ring. It wouldn't surprise me if they fall off like Phx or Det next year. SA gets props for their run on top - it was longer than the Shaq/Kobe run, but its unlikely Ginobili or Duncan are able to get back to that top level for a full season and there is no one close to taking their role waiting in the wings.