Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1

Paraphrasing Pop, HCA is nice to have but not mandatory. Personally, aside from a game 7 situation, I don't really care about HCA. I guess I'm in the minority but I actually like the idea of the Spurs starting a series away from home and stealing a game or two on the opponent's court. But in a game 7, HCA is nice but I'd trade it in a minute for a 80% healthy Manu.

I say screw worrying about who guards Dirk. They need to give him the Amare treatment: Let Dirk get his points and shut down everyone else. Make Terry and Howard stand around and watch Dirk go 1 on 1 from the FT line.

That's why I think Gooden on Dirk is our best option. Pop just needs to tell Gooden to stay on the floor, don't go for any fakes and just contest the jumper with a hand in the face as best you can when he shoots. He's gonna make those shots as a high rate, but he can't make them all.

Also, with Gooden and Duncan on the floor, Dirk is gonna get worn down guarding one of them in the post, which will cuase him to miss those FT jumpers later in the game. I say let Dirk go for 40-50 a night and stay at home on everyone else.

I started reading this and I did not like it at about half way through, then I got to the conclusion and knew what his mindset was. It seems Dallas has a lot of Spurs fans running scared.

Now is the time to support the team and not give up.

Who said we have to match up with Dallas? We can make Dallas match up with us. One thing to do is play Drew Gooden more with Tim Duncan, now I am not saying start Drew, but play him more with TD as I seriously doubt Dallas can handle both Tim and Drew together on the court at the same time. Why not expose Dirk's defense and get them in foul trouble.

And I don't know what you are talking about in regards to TP. TP has been big for us in the playoffs before so it's nothing new for him. This season, especially in the second half he has taken it up another level and he's been doing it consistently.

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Originally Posted by z0sa

timvp, that's all dandy but its hard to preach Believe when you don't believe yourself...

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Believe isn't about homerishly pretending everything is fine even if there are circumstances that cause challenges. It's about overcoming said challenges.

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Originally Posted by completely deck

Sure. I say the Spurs have a 50% chance to win the championship. No, I am not counting them out, and I have not admitted defeat.

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So you think the Spurs have a better chance to win the championship than the the Lakers and the Cavaliers combined? If so, that's not really logic I can argue with . . .

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Originally Posted by Ice009

Now is the time to support the team and not give up.

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Pointing out the challenges isn't giving up. :rolleyes

When did Spurs fans turn so emo?

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Originally Posted by Ice009

Who said we have to match up with Dallas? We can make Dallas match up with us.

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When has Pop ever done that. You're talking about about the ultimate counter-puncher.

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Originally Posted by Ice009

And I don't know what you are talking about in regards to TP. TP has been big for us in the playoffs before so it's nothing new for him.

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Link to where I said he hasn't come up big before?

There's a difference between what the Spurs needed out of Parker in past seasons in what they need out of him this season.

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Originally Posted by completely deck

Sure. I say the Spurs have a 50% chance to win the championship. No, I am not counting them out, and I have not admitted defeat.

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You actually think the Spurs have a 50% chance of winning a title? Wow.

Being a realist about the matchups, the talent and the health of the Spurs doesn't mean you don't believe in them. It just means you are being realistic. I believe the Spurs can win a title, but I know it's a long shot.

I think the Spurs have about a 50% chance to beat the Mavericks. But their odds of winning a title, I would think are significantly less. I would say it's probably closer to 5% than to 50%.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Believe isn't about homerishly pretending everything is fine even if there are circumstances that cause challenges. It's about overcoming said challenges.

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and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

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Originally Posted by timvp

There's a difference between what the Spurs needed out of Parker in past seasons in what they need out of him this season.

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Parker would probably have to average 27-30 ppg for the Spurs to win a title.

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Originally Posted by z0sa

and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

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Writing them off in the first round would be saying they have no chance, or would win 1 out of 100 times. Saying they have 40% chance is pretty close to even. It's saying they would win 4 out of 10 times. That's not very bad, considering they don't have Ginobili, Tim is gimpy, and Pop refuses to play Bowen.

If anyone really believes the Spurs have a 50%+ chance to win a title, should put their money down. Vegas odds are 18:1 today. That would be a sweet payoff (and a Title!).

Kori and timvp make good points!

*cough**cough* please *cough* unpink me *cough*

Classic case of timvp's subjective takes and revisionist spurs history influencing the judgment and opinions of virtually the entire spurstalk board. If he had said "despite all this, spurs have a better shot to win" then every post that follows is not so fucking negative.

Spurs got this shit.

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Originally Posted by timvp

If the San Antonio Spurs are going to miraculously capture championship number five in the 2009 playoffs, the first order of business begins on Saturday in Game 1 of their first round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. These two Texas rivals will undoubtedly put on an entertaining show over the next few weeks.

As a Spurs fan, this was the first round matchup I dreaded all season. Even before Manu Ginobili went down injured, I didn't want the Spurs to have to go against the Mavs at the onset of the playoffs. Although Dallas has looked vulnerable at times this season, they always seem to give San Antonio trouble. Add to the mix the confidence and experience the Mavs gained in 2006 when they defeated the Spurs in Game 7, and the resulting concoction appears to be less than appetizing.

Since it was learned last night that the Spurs would have to take on the Mavs, I've re-watched a few of the hotly contested battles spanning back to the 2006 regular season to better get a handle on what exactly the Spurs are up against. I've concluded that San Antonio's success in this series will be determined by the answers to these five questions:

1) Can the Spurs slow down Dirk Nowitzki?

Nowitzki was absolutely outstanding against the Spurs in 2006. During that series, he averaged 27.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 73-for-80 at the free throw line. While other teams have had success slowing him down a little bit, the Spurs appear to be in the same boat as they were in 2006.

During the regular season, the Spurs have usually started Matt Bonner out on Nowitzki. At least to begin the series, that is likely to be the case once again. However, the Spurs are sure to throw a number of different defenders at Nowitzki. The problem is figuring out who exactly on this team matches up well with him.

Kurt Thomas is a very good defender but he's likely too slow. Bruce Bowen has had his moments against Nowitzki but most of his positives are overshadowed by the fact that Bowen isn't big enough to keep Nowitzki off the glass. Fabricio Oberto has had some success against him in international play but that hasn't seemed to translate well to the NBA. Drew Gooden may surprise but chances are that he's too new to the Spurs system to take on this monumental task.

The two most likely players Pop will turn to are Ime Udoka and Michael Finley. Personally, I think Udoka would be a disaster against Nowitzki. Nowitzki is both too big and too fast for Udoka. Finley is currently defending better than he ever has in his time as a Spur, but I can't imagine him having too much success against the lanky German. That said, my guess, based on Pop's coaching habits of the last few months, is that Finley on Nowitzki is the matchup we will see when it's money time.

In the month of April, Nowitzki has been very good. He's averaging 30.3 points per game on 55.1% field goal shooting in eight contests. He's been somewhat streaky this season but the Spurs are catching him on one of his hot streaks.

Most teams put a long small forward or a quick power forward on Nowitzki. The problem for the Spurs is they don't have such a player on the roster. Because of that, all signs point to Nowitzki being a monster yet again.

2) Will Tim Duncan be able to dominate?

Since the All-Star break, Duncan has been slowed by knee pain in both knees. The result has been diminished production and the need for more rest than usual. Thankfully, the extended downtime during the first round should give Duncan an opportunity to get the needed rest. Hopefully he uses that rest wisely because the Spurs will need him to be near the top of his game.

Out of any team in the league, the Mavs are arguably the most brazen when it comes to defending Duncan without a double-team. Their strategy in the last handful of years has been to force Duncan to carry the offensive load for most of the game while throwing sporadic double-teams at him from various angles. Dallas' goal is to keep the shooters quiet while keeping Duncan guessing at when and where the doubles will be sent.

If they use that strategy this series, it could be wildly successful if Duncan can't score in one-on-one situations. The bad news for the Spurs is that Duncan has struggled since the All-Star break to consistently score in such situations.

However, the good news is that the precedence is in the Spurs' favor. In 2006, Duncan was struggling with injury near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. But against the mostly single-teaming Dallas defense, he was able to lift his output to average 32.3 points per game in that seven-game series.

The nightmare scenario for the Spurs would be if the Mavs could get away with using Nowitzki to defend Duncan. If that happens and Dallas surrounds Nowitzki with perimeter players, the defensive mismatches for the Spurs would be virtually impossible to overcome.

3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?

Quietly, Parker graduated from star to superstar during the regular season. He put the team on his back on many occasions and willed the Spurs to victory. His 2008-09 regular season campaign was fantastic.

But now it's the playoffs and the game will be totally different. There's a big difference between being a superstar regular season player and a superstar postseason player. With scouting intensified, teams will be able to throw looks at Parker that he never experienced during the regular season.

I'm hopeful he can continue to play at a very high level but it is far from certain. If Duncan isn't near 100% and with no Manu Ginobili to shoulder some of the pressure, the Mavs could focus their entire defensive scheme on slowing down Parker.

If the situation arises that Duncan can't carry the offense versus single-team coverage, it will be up to Parker and only Parker to ensure that the offense continues to flow. That is a tall challenge for any player in the league, especially one who is new to the role.

4) Defensively, can the Spurs execute the necessary rotations?

When the Spurs gameplan for an opponent, their first goal is to locate what Pop likes to refer to as the "head of the snake". In other words, which player on the other team is responsible for generating the offense? The answer to that question is who the Spurs typically key on and try to force out of their comfort zone.

The main problem against the Mavs and the reason why they've had a hard time handling Dallas in the last few seasons is the fact that the Mavs don't really have a head of the snake. Rather, they have a variety of players that can generate offense. The result is a Spurs defense that can't narrow its focus and instead must depend on synchronized rotations by all five players on the court.

Against the Spurs, the Mavs do a great job of spacing the floor and then penetrating from different angles with different ballhandlers. Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, Howard and Barea have all shown an ability to cause havoc off the dribble. Any sort of late rotation or error in rotation and the Mavs typically end up with an open shot.

A lot of teams overcome this issue by applying pressure on the Mavs and then switching on penetration. The Spurs, however, don't have the personnel to employ that strategy. When they've tried to do it in the past against Dallas, the Mavs have simply made it their mission to attack Duncan and get him into foul trouble or force Parker to switch onto Nowitzki or Howard.

If the Spurs can make crisp rotations, they can survive the upcoming penetration onslaught from the Mavs. We'll see if the defense, which has been quite shaky at times this season, is up for the challenge.

5) What will the Spurs do to stay competitive on the glass?

Rebounding was a big reason why the Mavs were able to beat the Spurs in the 2006 postseason. In all seven games of that series, the Mavs were able to corral more boards than the Spurs.

Statistically, the Spurs have been a great defensive rebounding team this season. However, those stats will go out the window if Pop goes small to keep a quicker defender on Nowitzki. With a lineup that features Finley on Nowitzki, the Spurs will struggle to rebound.

This is another area where the Spurs will miss Ginobili. In small ball lineups, Ginobili has always been the Spurs' second best rebounder next to Duncan. Without Ginobili, Duncan will be left to fend for himself.

The obvious solution is not to go small. If Pop is comfortable playing two bigs, the Spurs should be fine on the glass. The problem is that Pop has usually opted to go small rather than give the Mavs the advantage of Nowitzki going against a slower player not accustomed to defending on the perimeter.

Another idea would be to play Udoka or George Hill more minutes. Both have shown an ability to rebound but both have also struggled offensively at times. Pop will have to judge whether or not their added rebounding boost is worth a drop in the team's offensive efficiency.

Conclusion

After considering all the aspects of the matchup between the Spurs and the Mavs, I regretfully have to admit that the evidence points to the Mavs being more likely to win this series. Dallas is just a very bad matchup that causes a multitude of problems. With Ginobili, I'd say the Spurs win in six games. Without Ginobili? The evidence points to the Mavs winning in six games.

The Mavs face their own set of question marks heading into the series but their questions aren't as complex. They are the healthier team, which also results in them being the deeper team. They have the experience of how to beat the Spurs. They are playing their best basketball of the year. They have multiple players who the Spurs have never really gotten a handle on (Nowitzki, Howard, Terry). And perhaps most importantly, both their offensive and defensive philosophies were created with beating the Spurs in mind. It's no accident that the Mavs matchup so well against the Spurs; it's by design.

Even though I give the Mavs a 60-65% chance to win the series, the Spurs are far from helpless. In Part 2, I'll give a player-by-player breakdown of what the Spurs need in order to advance to the second round.

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Instead of sitting here operating under the delusion that Dirk is some unstoppable force, why not just put Nowitzki on his ass like Pat Riley had Shaq and Zo do?

Dirk isn't some insurmountable obstacle, and if he is it's because the Spurs allow him to be one by not putting him on his ass.


This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

Sadly, he never got that chance like Alonzo did, and the Spurs have never figured it out, like Riley did.


Dirk dominates against us because he is allowed to get comfortable by a lack of physical play against him.

Pat Riley and Don Nelson know this, why doesn't Pop?

He's Dirk Nowitzki, he's not Michael Jordan and shouldn't be given that level of respect. Put him on his ass and watch him start missing shots.

IMO those who said the spurs have 50% winning this series do not belive in spurs.
You at least need to have 50.00000000000000000000000000000001%


:stirpot:

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Originally Posted by polandprzem

IMO those who said the spurs have 50% winning this series do not belive in spurs.
You at least need to have 50.00000000000000000000000000000001%


:stirpot:

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:lol

I told timvp in the car today, 57%.

And Dirk looks like Wilt against us because he's 7'ft tall and is guarded by shooting guards. If Pop's system is dictating Dirk be guarded with players he can shoot over and push around, then Pop's system is fucked up and needs to be chucked when playing the Mavs. He needs to be guarded with a bigman, not 2 2 guard, and again, preferably one that will knock him on his ass.

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Originally Posted by whottt

This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

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Having Horry on your team, is a guaranteed appearance in the secound-round.:smokin

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Originally Posted by whottt

Instead of sitting here operating under the delusion that Dirk is some unstoppable force, why not just put Nowitzki on his ass like Pat Riley had Shaq and Zo do?

Dirk isn't some insurmountable obstacle, and if he is it's because the Spurs allow him to be one by not putting him on his ass.


This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

Sadly, he never got that chance like Alonzo did, and the Spurs have never figured it out, like Riley did.


Dirk dominates against us because he is allowed to get comfortable by a lack of physical play against him.

Pat Riley and Don Nelson know this, why doesn't Pop?

He's Dirk Nowitzki, he's not Michael Jordan and shouldn't be given that level of respect. Put him on his ass and watch him start missing shots.

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Good post Whott. The more physical the better. The Spurs have never punished Dirk like they should have.

I really think the Spurs need to exploit Dirk on the defensive end. Play Gooden and Duncan together and make Dirk work on that end of the floor. I think Pop is smart enough to do it and he will do it.

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

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Originally Posted by whottt

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

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losing with grace? is there really such a thing? As a fan of the spurs during this great era, I'm not sure it will ever exist again.

I know tim is injured, but I'm praying he still has some ridiculous performances hidden deep somewhere.

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Originally Posted by Ice009

Good post Whott. The more physical the better. The Spurs have never punished Dirk like they should have.

I really think the Spurs need to exploit Dirk on the defensive end. Play Gooden and Duncan together and make Dirk work on that end of the floor. I think Pop is smart enough to do it and he will do it.

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Thank you. Dirk is going to flop and get calls anyway...might as well get th ose fouls on our terms instead of his.

I think Thomas would have no problems doing it...but Pop is going to have to encourage it. He can't shit there and take the high road and expect guys to defend Dirk on nothing but talent.

That is a fools errand and is actually a form of being overconfident.

I agree that knocking Dirk down a few times would be a good idea. But the problem is that Pop is very unlikely to put a hit out on him and the Spurs don't really have any goons willing to do it. Thomas is the closest thing the Spurs have but he doesn't really lay people out.

How many flagrant fouls did the Spurs have this whole season? I can't even remember one off the top of my head.

Counting on the Spurs suddenly deciding to play rough is a longshot at best. In 2006, emotions were running high, Horry was still playing and the Spurs fouled Dirk about 500 times ... but they were all of the touch foul variety.

I don't see that changing this year ... as much as I agree with the sentiment.

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Originally Posted by z0sa

and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

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I think there might be something seriously wrong with about half the members of this board...

You don't have to 100% believe the spurs will win every series to be a fan. Believeing is about believing in the players and coaches, and never losing hope. To ignore the circumstances our team is in and declare them champs, or even participants in the WCF already isn't being a fan, its being dense.

Tim has the rare quality of being a fan and still being able to look subjectively at the matchups. I applaud him and think more fans should sign up.

If you disagree with any of the points he is making then by all means state your disagreement and the facts backing up your own beliefs. But if everything he wrote makes sense to you and you just dislike the fact that he gave the mavs a 10% better chance to win the series... then stfu pls.

* this was pointed to all of the fans, on this site and that I know personally, who are getting pissed about people giving the mavs a chance... not just zosa :)

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Originally Posted by whottt

Thank you. Dirk is going to flop and get calls anyway...might as well get th ose fouls on our terms instead of his.

I think Thomas would have no problems doing it...but Pop is going to have to encourage it. He can't shit there and take the high road and expect guys to defend Dirk on nothing but talent.

That is a fools errand and is actually a form of being overconfident.

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So what it gives that you put Thomas on Dirk?
can he play him on big amounts of time?

If not Pop will have to put a backourt guy on Dirk again, and Dirk will have his confidence back.

And really Dirk is not our only problem. IMO Terry is bigger. And we have to guard Josh as well.

great preview! But all a spurs fan has to do is read bucks article. it says it all. We live and die with Timmy now.

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Originally Posted by whottt

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

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Most solid post in this entire cockamamie thread. :tu

Mavericks: prepare to be :smchode: