Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 3

Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1
Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 2

Part 3: The Pop Wishlist

Gregg Popovich won't have an easy job in trying to coach these Spurs to victory. They don't have Manu Ginobili and their chemistry hasn't completely gelled due to injury woes and late-season rotation adjustments. That said, victory is definitely attainable. Here is my Pop wishlist heading into the first round series between the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks.

1) Stay Big

In the 2006 series, Pop went small early and often against the Mavs. As a result, Dallas was able to out-rebound the Spurs and attack the basket without fear of a shot-blocker outside of Tim Duncan, which created numerous layups and free throw attempts.

This year, Pop must stick to his roots. The Spurs need to utilize lineups that feature two bigmen as much as possible. A positive sign can be seen in recent matchups against Dallas. In the last two games, Pop has used small ball for less than 20 minutes total. In the last contest between these two teams, small ball was used less than three minutes.

If Nowitzki torches a bigman, so be it. The Spurs don't have a perimeter player who is capable of shutting him down, anyways. At least with two bigmen on the court, the Spurs will be able to rebound, clog the lane against penetration and offer resistance at the rim.

The most successful defense on Nowitzki is to body up on him, force him to put the ball on the ground and then send help defenders who attack his dribble. Nowitzki is quick but he's also still 7-feet tall so his dribble is vulnerable, as Don Nelson and the Golden State Warriors exhibited in the 2007 playoffs.

Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas and Drew Gooden should all be able to body up on him and make life difficult. It's going to definitely be a challenge for San Antonio's defense and Pop's nature to go small against quick lineups, but I believe it is by far the best idea.

2) Force Nowitzki to Defend

Although he's picked up his defensive play a bit as of late, Nowitzki hasn't been too good of a defender this season. Combine that fact with the Spurs now having a way to force Nowitzki to defend and Pop should definitely employ the strategy.

How do you make Nowitzki defend? Play Duncan and Drew Gooden together and feed whoever Nowitzki defends. Gooden has been on fire on the offensive end and he's shown to be a capable post scorer. Even if Gooden can't convert, that extra energy Nowitzki will have to spend will help out down the line.

Pop hasn't used Duncan and Gooden too much together but the matchup against the Mavs makes it a duo that needs to see time together. Gooden is green in the system, however Gooden must be productive during the playoffs if the Spurs are to have any shot at a championship. Might as well figure out what Gooden is made out of early on in the playoff run.

3) Preach Gang Rebounding

I keep harping on rebounding but I don't think it can be stated enough how important rebounding will be in this series. The Mavs killed the Spurs for a good two-year stretch on the boards. If the Spurs solve the rebounding problems against Dallas, that will go a long way towards minimizing their comfort level against San Antonio.

The Mavs have four good rebounding starters: Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Erick Dampier and Jason Kidd. All four of those players can easily grab double-digit boards in a game. The Spurs, on the other hand, feature a starting lineup of Duncan and four below average rebounders at their respective positions.

Due to that disadvantage, the Spurs need to send everyone to the glass. When the bench enters the game, rebounding should be priority number one for every player not named Bruce Bowen. If the Spurs win the rebounding battle this series, I'd say that would double their chances of winning the series.

4) Run Plays for Bonner Early

If there is one player who is most likely to tighten up due to the increased pressure of the playoffs, Matt Bonner has to be the leading candidate. He hasn't exactly been known for his clutch play during his Spurs career and no one really knows what to expect out of him in the postseason.

The best way to shake off the nerves and try to get Bonner rolling is to run a few sets for him early in the game. Pop has a number of plays in the playbook that can get Bonner open shots. (The most common one features Bonner setting a pick for Tony Parker, Bonner pretending to roll, Duncan coming over and setting a pick on Bonner's man and Bonner flaring out for a three-pointer.)

Bonner could be a difference-maker in this series. In theory, Bonner has the quickness to disrupt Nowitzki on one end while spacing the floor for Duncan and Parker on the other end. But none of that will happen unless Bonner gets into the groove and starts feeling confident about himself.

5) Play Parker or Bowen on Terry

One of the most underrated players in the entire NBA is Jason Terry. He's not quite as good as Ginobili but he plays a Ginobili-esque role for the Mavs. He's the guy who they rely on to bring energy, take big shots, make big shots and basically just keep everything humming offensively.

The Spurs must pay special attention to him. Next to Nowitzki, he's the player who is most likely to beat you single-handedly. This becomes especially true when the Mavs are in front of their home fans.

On the Spurs roster, I only trust two players defending Terry: Parker and Bowen. That's it. Parker, when he's defending with a purpose, is very good at sticking with shooters and getting a hand up. Bowen is obviously the best on the team at doing just that but if Bowen's minutes are limited, Parker needs to be the next in line.

The other perimeter defenders on the Spurs either aren't quick enough to keep Terry from getting open looks or aren't capable of getting around the screens that Terry likes to use.

6) Don't Play Duncan on Howard

In the past, Pop has liked using Duncan on Howard as a way to try to keep Duncan out of foul trouble. However, that strategy didn't work at all in 2006 and Pop shouldn't try it again this time around.

Howard is an explosive player, especially against the Spurs. To begin the game, Howard is usually the Mavs' go-to player. He gets tons of touches early and it is important to keep a capable defender on him to not let him get going. If you slow him early, he tends to stay quiet.

Even if Pop is faced with a Mavs lineup that features Nowitzki at center and Howard at power forward, I'd rather Pop just let Duncan defend Nowitzki. Duncan wouldn't have much success but I'd rather Nowitzki shoot jumpers over Duncan than Howard slashing to the rim and start feeling good about himself.

7) Throw Different Looks at Kidd

Kidd's stats are no longer as mind-boggling as they were the last time the Spurs played him in the playoffs. He can still can rack up triple-doubles but they don't come on a near everyday basis as they did before.

Given his lowered statistical production, it's easy to overlook the fact that he's still a very useful player. Great passer, great rebounder and he's able to defend up to three positions. The Mavs as of late have entrusted Kidd with more and more of their in-game playcalling and adjustments.

Against the Mavs this year, Pop has used a strategy that basically has basically left Kidd wide open on the offensive end. The guards have not only gone under screens, they've been the first to double-team elsewhere to leave Kidd open. While that can be an effective strategy, it shouldn't become too predictable. Kidd isn't a great shooter but if he repeatedly gets open looks, he is very capable of getting hot from the outside.

When the end of the game is near, Kidd should be respected. He's a clutch shooter who loves taking big shots. Doubling off him early makes sense but those doubles need to occur less often as the game progresses.

8) Don't Hesitate Pulling Finley or Udoka

Pop obviously has a lot of trust in Michael Finley and Ime Udoka. He's invested a lot in these two players as of late and hopefully they will be able to produce in the postseason for San Antonio.

But if they don't, Pop needs to have a quick hook. Both Finley and Udoka are streaky players. Chances are that if they aren't shooting well early on, they are going to continue to not shoot well. There are exceptions to that rule but I'd much rather Pop go with the hot hands rather than hoping the worm will turn, as he likes to say.

If both Udoka and Finley are cold, Pop might as well run with Bruce Bowen and get his defensive expertise on the court. It also wouldn't hurt to give George Hill a shot.

9) Handle Mason with Care

Roger Mason, Jr. has shown an ability to play well under pressure, so there isn't as much trepidation about his Spurs playoff debut as there is with someone like Bonner. However, Mason has a lot on his plate during this series and Pop needs to keep a close eye on what's going on.

Specifically, Mason's play as the backup point guard is worrisome. He's played well at times in that position, even against the Mavs, but he's also struggled. Parker already has enough weight to carry this series, he can't also be responsible for making up ground that Mason loses while on the court.

If the Mavs pressure Mason and he absolutely can't handle the backup point guard role, Pop needs to adjust before it costs the Spurs a game or two. I'm not a huge Jacque Vaughn supporter for this series, but I'd rather see him out there if Mason is bringing back memories of Beno Udrih against the Detroit Pistons in 2005.

Even better, giving Hill a try at the backup point guard spot has proven to not be a bad idea. Hill isn't a playmaker at this stage of his career but he's also one of the least turnover-prone rookie point guards of the last decade. In fact, at one point this season, only one rookie (Chris Duhon) in the last ten years averaged fewer turnovers per 48 minutes than Hill.

10) Let Parker Shine

Parker needs to play like a superstar for the Spurs to win this series. As much as it is important to get Duncan going and to force Dallas to double-team him, the Spurs can't totally shift gears now. The offense needs to continue to run through Parker.

I've been a leading proponent of calling four-down over the years and letting Duncan go to work, but Pop needs to realize he won't be able to four-down the Spurs to victory. Parker will have to carry a significant load for San Antonio to advance.

I think this becomes even truer late in games. Pop needs to have confidence in Parker when it comes to winning time. Parker has shown an ability to perform during the clutch and Pop's playcalling should reflect that fact.

Establish Duncan, punish the Mavs for single-teaming but ultimately Parker is the Spurs' biggest advantage in this series and their best hope to win.









The fourth and final segment of this series preview will be the ten reasons to believe.

Great read. :toast

I would really like to see Hill on Terry, but I don't think it will happen.

great read. thanks.

and i said it before, attack dirk on the post with either Gooden or Tim. i can't see him able to contain any of them.

nice read

great read, thanks :tu

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Originally Posted by quentin_compson

Great read. :toast

I would really like to see Hill on Terry, but I don't think it will happen.

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I'm confident Pop will give Hill some PT, specially if his defense is needed. It will be a good learning experience. Its not like the Spurs will collapse if GH gets dome court time; on the contrary he might actually prove Pop wrong about not being ready.

come on spurs win this game

2006 had one of the greatest coaches with the Mavs-Avery Johnson. I do not think this team is the same as 06. I definitely do not think this team has the confidence that AJ gave them in 06. Also that year they had 3 centers to rotate through(every game, if I remember right, all three were in foul trouble) to guard Timmy.

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Originally Posted by timvp

If the Mavs pressure Mason and he absolutely can't handle the backup point guard role, Pop needs to adjust before it costs the Spurs a game or two. I'm not a huge Jacque Vaughn supporter for this series, but I'd rather see him out there if Mason is bringing back memories of Beno Udrih against the Detroit Pistons in 2005.

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Great read!

My biggest fear. I think the on-ball pressure will be crazy when Tony's out. I just hope Pop doesn't panic and this doesn't affect Mason's overall game.

With Pop's fear off losing offense in stretches, there is no way he will have a hook for finley. If Manu were healthy, there would be a better chance for a hook.

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Originally Posted by spursncowboys

2006 had one of the greatest coaches with the Mavs-Avery Johnson. I do not think this team is the same as 06. I definitely do not think this team has the confidence that AJ gave them in 06. Also that year they had 3 centers to rotate through(every game, if I remember right, all three were in foul trouble) to guard Timmy.

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Do not underrate Rick Carlisle. He's one of the best particularly coming out of timeouts when his teams need a score. Carlisle will have no trouble getting his team fired up.

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Originally Posted by G-Nob

With Pop's fear off losing offense in stretches, there is no way he will have a hook for finley. If Manu were healthy, there would be a better chance for a hook.

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You're probably right. I have said it before and I will say it again...we will likely live and die by Finley in these playoffs. At the very least he needs to pick his shots wisely and not be a turnstile defensively.

Great read to wake up to this morning, Timvp, thanks!:toast

Finley's talent for the clutch shot lately will make it tough for Pop to pull him in the fourth quarter, and can you blame him with the evidence lately and in the past?

Another excellent write up. :tu

We've tried Tony on Terry before and Terry has no problems shooting over him, both on the perimeter and off the dribble. We can probably put a guy with more size on him, like Mason or Finley. If he gets hot, I see Udoka or Bowen taking on him.
I think slowing Terry down is going to be key in these series. Unlike Dirk, this is a guy that can be stopped, and a guy you can get into his head, just like JHo.

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Originally Posted by quentin_compson

I would really like to see Hill on Terry, but I don't think it will happen.

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same here, that could be a good ploy but i doubt it as well

Wow excellent analysis. Couldn't agree more with avoiding small ball. Would like to see Hill on Terry too, and I bet we see it game 3 because the little dude torches us. I don't think Bowen is quick enough to defend him and Tony's ability to defend the guy...well just don't know about that either.

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Originally Posted by EricB

Finley's talent for the clutch shot lately will make it tough for Pop to pull him in the fourth quarter, and can you blame him with the evidence lately and in the past?

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Finley's field goal percentage in clutch situation while with the Spurs is about 37%. In the last two playoffs, it's 20%.

Not exactly the cold blooded assassin you make him out to be . . .

I don't deny the stat, but why does it always seem like he's clutch? I remember alot of good shots the guy has made.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Another excellent write up. :tu

We've tried Tony on Terry before and Terry has no problems shooting over him, both on the perimeter and off the dribble. We can probably put a guy with more size on him, like Mason or Finley. If he gets hot, I see Udoka or Bowen taking on him.
I think slowing Terry down is going to be key in these series. Unlike Dirk, this is a guy that can be stopped, and a guy you can get into his head, just like JHo.

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That was regular season Parker defense. He usually steps it up in the playoffs. Terry would destroy Finley, Mason or Udoka. The only hope would be if he's cold or the Mavs aren't smart enough to run him off screens.

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Originally Posted by Cant_Be_Faded

I don't deny the stat, but why does it always seem like he's clutch? I remember alot of good shots the guy has made.

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Probably because Pop draws up plays for him in clutch situations just about every game. He's bound to hit clutch shots on volume alone.

I don't want to knock Finley because he's played very well lately and his big shots have the Spurs playing at home but clutchness hasn't been a strength in his Spurs career.

Excellent analysis. These are all points I agree with.

Man, as stated several times before, I hope Pop gives Hill a shot on Terry.

Great writeup timvp, I am so excited for this series! :tu

I'm hoping for heavy doses of Bowen. If he can't dig up enough to bring one more good postseason performance, the Spurs have no chance at a title, and might as well start resting up for next season as soon as possible.

i'd like to see Duncan and Gooden playing together. Dirk's defensive deficiencies can be masked by letting him guard Bonner. But Dirk definitely cannot guard Gooden. Spurs can dominate on the inside this series if Popovich lets them.

timvp, do you think there is a chance that Hill gets a shot at defending Terry? I just hope Pop hasn't ruled out playing Hill at all.

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Originally Posted by quentin_compson

timvp, do you think there is a chance that Hill gets a shot at defending Terry? I just hope Pop hasn't ruled out playing Hill at all.

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If everything is going well, probably not. If Pop gets desperate, he's not adverse to going deep into his bag of tricks.

As evident by 2006.

I have a feeling Pop will put Hill out there when the mavs run a Terry + Barea lineup. Parker on Barea and Hill on Terry.

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Originally Posted by timvp

If everything is going well, probably not. If Pop gets desperate, he's not adverse to going deep into his bag of tricks.

As evident by 2006.

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IMO Hill could be a lot more key than you think in this series. The JET is having a career year and Hill is the only guy who can matchup with him. I'm actually expecting Hill to get extended minutes this series after game 1.

Mavs fan is probably right, except that it usually takes Pop 2 games to make changes he didn't think he was going to have to make.

Hill should get a shot. It's not like our back aren't against the wall.

This has been one of Pop's best coaching year's just by keeping the team somehow on track. I think that approach works well for the regular season to get through the long grind. But in the playoffs, I think the ability to quickly adapt is more important. Teams unveil new approaches and the "chess match" aspect to the game is heightened. I have doubts Pop will adapt quickly, but we'll see. If he can get this team to the WCF, then it could be considered his best year of coaching out of all.

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Originally Posted by timvp

If everything is going well, probably not. If Pop gets desperate, he's not adverse to going deep into his bag of tricks.

As evident by 2006.

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If 2006 was desperation, then it started in the first round. He never got desperate enough to consider putting in a seven footer to alter shots, even after the Mavs dominated in the paint for five straight games.

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Originally Posted by timvp

How do you make Nowitzki defend? Play Duncan and Drew Gooden together and feed whoever Nowitzki defends. Gooden has been on fire on the offensive end and he's shown to be a capable post scorer. Even if Gooden can't convert, that extra energy Nowitzki will have to spend will help out down the line.

Pop hasn't used Duncan and Gooden too much together but the matchup against the Mavs makes it a duo that needs to see time together. Gooden is green in the system, however Gooden must be productive during the playoffs if the Spurs are to have any shot at a championship. Might as well figure out what Gooden is made out of early on in the playoff run.

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From your lips to God.:ihit

I didn't see much of the 3rd quarter. Did Bowen defend Barea during that stretch?