Here's some links for reference (will update):
ESPN's list of free agents in 2009 and 2010
NBA Salary Cap FAQ
Patricia's Various Basketball Stuff
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Here's some links for reference (will update):
ESPN's list of free agents in 2009 and 2010
NBA Salary Cap FAQ
Patricia's Various Basketball Stuff
Key issue:
"On Feb. 18, Stern authorized the dispatch of a memo to all 30 teams projecting a drop in the salary cap from $58.7 million this season to $57.3 million in 2009-10 and a subsequent drop to $56.5 million in 2010-11, with a projected decline for the luxury-tax threshold as well: $71.2 million this season to $69.4 million in 2009-10 to $68.5 million in 2010-11. "
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailyd...dime-090321-22
No one has the juevos to start the Ron Artest FA thread?
If the dollar-for-dollar tax is in place to keep teams from exceeding the luxury tax threshold, what exactly is in place to deter them from going over the salary cap?
the spurs better try and sign a few of the players stash in europe who they hold rights too b4 spending the MLE at someone.....
What is the biggest need in free agency. I haven't really gotten into offseason mode yet but I'd think a starting quality big has to be the top need, right?
I don't think we've seen the end of Bonner yet.
Actually the more pressing need might be at the 3 spot.It's obvious Fin shouldn't play more than 15-20 mins.
Do you think the Spurs might split their MLE? Or even not use it at all and go with Williams, Gist, Hairston, Mahinmi?
If we're using our whole MLE, I'd like to go after Marion or Odom if no team offers them more. Obviously they're kind of soft and have their flaws but would be great value for the MLE. Not sure how much of a pipedream this is, it's hard to predict whether any team would be willing to offer contracts bigger than MLE money this summer.
I think the best way of figuring out what you need is first taking stock in what you already have.
For the sake of argument, let's list only the fully guaranteed contracts for next year:
Parker/Hill
Mason/Ginobili
Finley (player option, likely picked up)
Duncan/Mahinmi
Bonner/Thomas
Based on this, the Spurs don't need any guards, except maybe another backup PG. Obviously not priority one.
The top priorities have to be, then, a quality 3 (of course, when has that not been the case?) and a starting center, since most of us agree that Bonner would be more effective as a bench player with more flexible minutes based on performance.
I think who the Spurs target in free agency will be a huge sign about what they think of their existing players, particularly their non-guaranteed contracts (Bowen and Oberto). If their first target is a SF, perhaps they think Oberto or Thomas can step into the starting center role again effectively. If they target a center, perhaps they feel Bowen has another year left, and Bonner/Oberto/Thomas are potential trade chips.
Stern is now more optimistic:
http://www.columbian.com/article/200.../1001/SPORTS01
Quote:
NBA Commissioner David Stern on Saturday said the league’s economic projections are looking more optimistic than initially expected, which could influence the Portland Trail Blazers’ free-agency activity this offseason if the forecast holds true.
Speaking to the media prior to Portland’s first-round playoff game against Houston, Stern said revenue may grow by "a percent or two," rather than remain flat or even fall, as the league warned its teams in February.
Stern said the salary cap — which is based on the league’s overall revenue — will "remain under pressure." But he did not expect it to fall back this summer, though he warned that revenue could still fall next season.
"They will not go up the way they were projected to go up," Stern said. "I don’t think they’re going to go down. If not next year, the year after. Or if not down, nothing like the growth that we have enjoyed."
do the Spurs have both the MLE and the LLE?
how about david lee? his looking at all offers?
maybe we can do a sign and trade with the knicks and get them further under the cap....
how about a hustle point/foward type of player...matt barnes.
When you look at the info available in the sites referenced in the OP, it becomes obvious that the Spurs, since the implementation of the Luxury Tax after the 2005 CBA, have operated within a budget that is set by ownership right at the Luxury Tax limit.
The Spurs payroll in 2004-2005 was 47.2M. When the Tax came into play in 2005-2006, the Spurs increased their payroll by over 14M to take them slightly over the Tax limit. In the subsequent years the Spurs have incrementally increased payroll at almost exactly the same rate as the increases in the Tax limit. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the Spurs budget for 2009-2010 will be set at some number very close to the Tax limit.
And this is where the challenge for the FO has become more difficult each year. The salaries of the Big 3 have been increasing at a much faster rate than the Tax limit, leaving a smaller budget for the rest of the roster each year. The budget for talent outside of the Big 3 can be expressed as:
LUX TAX LIMIT minus BIG 3 SALARY equals AVAILABLE BUDGET
2005-2006 (61.7 - 31.7 = 30M)
2006-2007 (65.4 - 35.1 = 30.3M)
2007-2008 (67.9 - 38.6 = 29.3M)
2008-2009 (71.1 - 42.1 = 29M)
Since the implementation of the Tax in 2005-2006, while average NBA salaries have increased over 15%, the Spurs available budget has decreased in real dollars.
And this is where the Tax limit estimates by Stern cited by lurker23 and Bruno come into play. Stern's February estimate was a decrease to 69.4M. The most optimistic estimate in his recent remarks is a 2% increase to about 72.6M.
For the Spurs this is a huge difference. The Big 3 are on the books for 45.5M next year. So the available budget for next year will be between 23.9M and 27.1M. Either way it will be the smallest budget available for talent to support the Big 3 since the Lux Tax was implemented.
For me, that budget range of 23.9M to 27.1M is the starting point for discussion. At least 10 players must be paid from within that budget. Any potential use of the MLE or any trade must account for how you get that player and 9 others while remaining within budget.
If the discussions here are to be more than fantasy league talk, the budget must be taken into account. In the real world, the Spurs certainly will.
Awesome post, Mel_13.
Extrapolating from your information, we have $65.99 mil for 9 players under contract ( Tim, Tony, Manu, Bowen, Hill, Oberto, Kurt, Bonner, Mason ). Furthermore we have Fin ( player option, likely to be taken ) at $2.5 mil and Mahinmi ( team option ) at approximately $1 mil. This means we'll have $69.5 mil in contracts for 11 players.
If we assume the Lux Tax will be somewhere between $69.4 mil and $72.6 mil, as you stated, then it is obvious we cannot afford to offer anything from our MLE or LLE, unless we make moves, the most obvious of which are of course Bowen's and Oberto's non-guaranteed contracts.They could be very valuable in a trade to a team looking for cap relief, but trading them would be more likely around the trade deadline and not during the summer. Of course, here we assume Bowen would eventually be cut and signs a min contract with the Spurs, and that they would not be cut in the summer by the Spurs.
Another possibility to get more space is to somehow convince Finley not to take his option.
To summarize, it is very likely that the Spurs are not looking to spend any money this summer and go with the younger players they're trying to develop - Williams, Hairston and Gist.
If thats the case, and whats the likely hood of the team with that roster even competing for another championship? If you aint going to spend? might as well go ahead with the youth movement plan instead of waiting for the 2010 contingency plan.....
so by the time 2010 comes around, we have at leasts 2-3 young players, who have a couple of years nba experience to build around, instead of waiting for that big star FA to come and sign here.....
full MLE - Paul Millsap
bench 09/10 = 20.82m committed and expiring
thomas 3.8m
bowen 4.0m
mason 3.78m
bonner 3.24m
finley 2.5m
oberto 3.5
GISTS = rookie scale
sanikidz = rookie scale
williams = resign for minimum
3 players under 3m combined to replace the previous 3 players, thats a huge ass saving of what 6m in payroll....
insert javtokas for around 2-3m, no nba experience, but his probably better than most stiffs playing center in the nba.
seriously you fill out the bench with our euro rookies currently stash could save the team about 5-10m, while fielding a very competitive team and heading for the youth movement.
Spurs need a good 3.
Trade for Jefferson, MLE on Sheed, GIST! for cheap.
What the spurs need is size and athleticism at SF and the C position.
How about Troy Murphy? Would he be on the block?
How about Gortat ?
Hard working, rebounding, still developing, athletic. I think cheap.
He will start in g6 Magic series
I actually wouldn't mind seeing Bass here.
i think a big is needed more than anything .
Wallace , McDyess , Bass , Chris Anderson , Gordat are all pretty nice i think in that order .
Dantay Jones is someone the Spurs should go after also .
If they go for a wing I think Azubuike, Rasual Butler or Moon would be nice options
how about ben gordon?
he declined 10m per season last year, i think he will get the same offer again from the bulls, but they will need to shed salary........
say goodbye to vaughn, and udoka, and fin
keep bowen and gooden
and hopefully rasheed or prince can come
wht yall think?
Well, he has 2 years and $23 mil remaining on his contract. That isn't cheap, but he produces enough to justify it. He averaged 14.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field, shot 45% on 358 3-point FG attempts, shot over 80% from the FT line, and averaged close (11.8) to 12 rebounds a game this season. Not much of a shotblocker though. I'd guess a Spurs' run at him would require some mix of cap relief and picks.
11-12 Million for a legit starting center is not that much in my book, especially when they can shoot inside and out along with rebound. Dampier, Kaman, Dalembert, Okafor, Brad Miller, Sheed and many others make about the same as Troy and he rebounds and has more range than all of them.
It is really not that bad when you look at what the market is paying similar talent.
Perhaps he doesn't fit into their plans moving forward.
If the Spurs dealt for him and included Bowen and Oberto's partially guaranteed contracts, that's potentially $15.8 million in payroll reduction over two years. The Pacers didn't make the playoffs despite Murphy's great season. Yes, he's good, but he's not a franchise player.
I would be hard pressed to see that as the truth, at least in the next 2 years. They look like they could be a playoff team in the East when healthy and they do not have any depth at the big man spot next year.
He is clearly not a franchise player, but he fits in damn well in Indy and I don't see them landing a major piece in 2010. Spurs do not even have good first round picks to trade them, and none next year.
It would probably depend on how close they think they are to a playoff team in the East, and I for one think they are pretty close. Just do not know if pure cap space is enough for a team like the Pacers.
I'm not a big fan of Murphy. I rather see Spurs pairing Tim with a player who is a good defender.
I agree for the most part, but having a center that can score is nice. Having a center that can score and rebound at a very high rate definitely helps make up for some of the defensive deficiencies.
Troy is not my ideal big man, but with what the Spurs like (Bonner, Horry...) recently, he is certainly a huge upgrade.
What about the Matrix? He isn't the ideal fit on the offensive end in the halfcourt, but defensively he would be a huge boost because he is still one of the more athletic and versatile players in the league. He is a a very good rebounder and one of the better shot blockers among forwards. Maybe he can find his 3-point shot by playing with the Big 3, something he has lost since leaving Phoenix. There are a handful of teams who are under the cap this offseason so it's doubtful Marion gets more than the MLE. If we could somehow land Shawn for the MLE and Dyess for the LLE, and assuming Finley hangs it up, what about this roster:
Parker-Hill
Ginobili-Mason
Duncan-Mahimi-Thomas
Marion- Bonner-Williams
Mcdyess-Gist
+ Fillers
I'd like to let Udoka and Vaughn walk. I'd like for Finley to opt out of his final year. I'd like for Oberto to retire. That gives us 4 open roster spots.
I would like to re-sign Gooden, sign either Marvin Williams or Rodney Carney to start at SF, sign Sanikidze, sign Gist, sign Hairston, Draft Danny Green.
C - Ian, Bonner, Thomas
PF - Duncan, Gooden, Gist
SF - Williams/Carney, Bowen, Sanikidze
SG - Mason, Manu, Green
PG - Parker, Hill, Hairston
In 2010
C - Ian, Splitter, ?
PF - Duncan, Gooden, Gist
SF - Williams/Carney, Sanikidze, ?
SG - Mason, Manu, Green
PG - Parker, Hill, Hairston
Marvin Williams has a 7+ million qualifying offer for 09-10....whatever that means. It is the final year of his current contract though.
The QO is the amount specified by the CBA for the final year of a rookie contract. If the Hawks tender the QO, then Williams become a Restricted FA and the Hawks have the option to match any offer that he receives from another team.
It also basically means that it is impossible for the Spurs to sign Gooden and Williams as both figure to get at least the MLE
The Spurs need to make a hard push for Milsap. Hoping that the Jazz decide to hold on to booze.... they will not have enough $ to match the offer assuming they keep Okur and Korver as well...
What about Wally Zerbiak? For the right price, he could be a decent Kerr/ Barry type of player. He should legally change his name to spell it like that to simplify things. Do you think Wally could be had for the LLE? Then perhaps Sheed for the MLE? Can we make that happen?
i'm a definite no on wally world... we need some athleticism and defense, not another stand still shooter. diversifying the roster is the big key this summer.
hell no to wally!!!! NO WAY
I'm a big fan of all of those guys, except Yi. I think he's way too soft. The Spurs definitely need to re-visit the potential Camby and Vince Carter trades from earlier this year. We couldn't get both, but one or the other would help the Spurs tremendously. And I don't see Ariza every coming to the Spurs because he's a UCLA guy and the Lakers are probably going to win it all. I'm sure he's content with where he's at. All for throwing some money at Ron-Ron though.
Good list with a few changes imo.
Trade targets (in random order): Outlaw, Rudy F., RJ, Tyrus Thomas, Gortat (RFA), MMiller, Nocioni, and Camby.
I don't think the Lakers will let Ariza go especially since he is a RFA. And Artest probably wouldn't draw interest from the Spurs... because he would be too expensive and too volatile.
The Chicago Bulls are reportedly heavily shopping Tyrus Thomas around the league, trying to see what kind of value they can get for him after the solid season he’s coming off of. It appears that they don’t see him fitting into their long-term plans as he’s too similar to Joakim Noah, and they aren’t interested in giving him a long-term deal that would put them over the luxury tax. It’s possible the Bulls look to package Thomas and Hinrich together and land a big time power forward.
http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm
We need a small forward-Guard that can defend / a player who can play either forward position / a center who can block shots and rebound.
1 - Dahntay Jones can defend positions 1-3 and he can drive and finish at the rim.
He is only 28. He can be the new Bruce Bowen.
2 - James Singleton can play the 3 and can play the 4 when pop wants to go small.
He is 6-8 and athletic and a very good rebounder. He is only 27.
3 - Chris Kaman can play the center position next to tim. He can rebound and
block shots. He also is able to hit the open jumper and can play with his back to
the basket. He is 7'0 tall and is only 27. The downside is that he can be injury
prone at times and his contract is 3 years at around $9 million. We have to trade
for him which isn't hard since the Clippers are gonna try to unload some money to
have space for their No. 1 draft pick.
The Kt for Outlaw deal is good, we need that wing player who can defend and score. We still need a big man who can do it all basically (Shoot / Post Up / Rebound / Block Shots / Play solid D ). Having that will take pressure off Tim in all the above categories. Gooden can do some of those things, but the defense ( playing post up D and defending the rim-blocking shots )is still an issue. Which is the real Issue if we are to win another Championship.
It just might be, if we give up bowen/oberto and throw in bonner who is in the last year of his contract then it could work. The clippers arent trying to get more talent, their trying to unload money, bonner at $3million for one year can't hurt them. And Bowen and oberto can be cut giving the clippers $3.8 million dollars.
If they just want to save money then why would they trade with the Spurs when there are a few other teams who can offer more in terms of immediate cap relief?
They will want some talent for Kaman, it won't be a straight salary dump, I assure you. They might want to salary dump Z Bo, but not Kaman. Besides if we get Kaman we'd lose any financial flexibility until Duncan retires. We'd lose Manu, woluldn't be able to trade for anyone else who has some value. Duncan didn't take a paycut in order for the Spurs to get Kaman and lose Manu.
Why would we lose Manu? Spurs own his rights and can pay him the most. In fact, the only way to significantly upgrade and keep Manu is via trade.
I am thinking.. don't disturb the 2010-11 plan..and sign more veterans to fill in the immediate needs. (if of course you don't land a marquee player trading Bowen,Oberto,Bonner/Thomas in some combination).
Two areas where we need upgrades are definitely SF and Center.
Can we try Grant Hill for SF? He offers decent offense numbers and is an intelligent player who proved that he has gotten over his injury woes with 70 games and 82 games the past two seasons respectively. Will he sign on the Veteran's minimum? He played for that sum for the setting Suns, after all!
For Center- Marcin Gortat is worth a try with some split of MLE and if nothing works out, why not Rasho Nesterovic?
Will the MLE get you Varejao?
According to articles on Realgm and Hoopshype he will opt out of his contract.
but this year there are no teams able (or willing) to trow this kind if money at Varejao. he will once more settle for MLE, if he wants to leave the Cavs. or re sign with the Cavs. I can see them offer him 7-8 per. maybe slightly more, if Ben Wallace in fact retires and accepts a buy out. this would free some money for Varejao.
I was going to put this in the Childress thread but since it has to do with multiple free-agents, and whether Atlanta will be able to obtain them, I figured I'd just put it here:
http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2009/06/1...id=blogs_hawks
I still think a good option for Manu is to try to get him to trade $ for years on his contract. 4 years $24 million, 5 years $30 million. I can't see anyone throwing $10 million per for him unless he tears it up next year. And we have the ability to limit his minutes and keep his stats down. $6 million per would be a great deal to keep Manu. $8 million per, may need to let him walk. $10 million per, can't see it unless just a short term deal, 1-2 years.
$6 million per season for 4-5 years could be win-win for both sides. Spurs may get a good deal, but Manu gets to play out his career in S.A.
There were rumors that the Spurs inquired about Al Harrington last November (Ludden article, http://tinyurl.com/nkox9u). He's a free agent, been around 10 years (possible attraction to MLE), and plays the wing. Shouldn't he be part of the discussion?
matt barnes anyone?
After the trade for Jefferson, aren't we out of the FA market for any major player because of salary cap problems?
I know Pop and the FO are supposed to have the green light from Holt, but get serious: There has to be a maximum that he is willing to pay on the luxury tax.
the FA is going crazy
any clue?:rolleyes
Was there ever a release from the Spurs saying Sheed was option number 1?
No.
i had no clue as to the FO even going after jefferson so there is no way i can guess what they are up to now. apparently, they were not all that gung ho about rasheed as well.
probably giving Tiago Splitter a few last phonecalls
I think Pop will play the role of generic German soldier this week, marching down the Champ-Elysees without as much as a word pf protest from the French standing by. RC will probably drink a few mojitos on South Beach, while both play the role of Nero watching the San Antonio Spursan Basketball Empire burn. Big Baby has been cast in the role of Caligula, with sources citing "a familiarity with his best known work."
yeah, its not typical for the Spurs to fly in a player they are interested in, while Pop isnt even in the country...especially not, while Boston is going to his place and so on...I guess, they never really wanted him!
maybe we will go for Mcdyess, Zaza...maybe even for someone like Big Baby...could imagine them doing something in the Splitter hunt...but the best bet should be, that they are not doing to much (Haislip, Blair, Bonner, Duncan, Ian is ok starting the season), while waiting for the trade deadline...there will be a team willing to trade a god big for sal cap in '10!
The obvious would be a stopover in Spain for Pop, to talk with a certain former draft pick center about coming over this year...
I don't know the details but I doubt that the Spurs were going to give Sheed 3 years. Maybe 2? Like Corey Magettie he followed the money and job security.
According to a Ric Bucher twitter, the Spurs are one of the contenders for Channing Frye.
According to Hoopsworld it looks like the Spurs are after Big Baby with the full mid-level exception..... If thats the case and they happen to bring in Splitter on a rookie contract, would that make Bonner expendable since that would give the Spurs seven big men..... I would say package Finley and Bonner for a solid wing that can contribute coming off the bench.....
I think the spurs are waiting for the MLE, and salray cap numbers to come out so we can offer just more then the pistons can, then take the remainder parts of the MLE and offer that to Big baby.
I think the Spurs FO has something up their sleeves but I would not say were screwed with Splitter, Blair, Haislip, and Big Baby playing alongside Duncan.....
Blair is coming in with a chip on his shoulder and is going to try to prove that he should have been a lottery pick as projected.... Mahimni is going to flat out prove he belongs in the NBA and could be a beast as well..... Splitter is NBA ready and Big Baby can play and will contribute to this team.....
I think the Spurs will be deep, more athletic, and younger and fresher then what we have seen in years past...... I personally am excited and cant wait until this lineup comes together and the chemistry gels...... The matter is staying healthy......