Hollinger - NBA Best Under the Radar Free Agents

Probably belongs on the NBA forum, but I thought I would post it here.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...eagents-090701


Marcin Gortat played in all 11 of the Magic's games in the Eastern Conference finals and NBA Finals in the 2009 playoffs, and didn't score more than four points in any of them. He averaged 3.8 points per game in the regular season and has exactly four double-doubles in his two-season career.

So it might be surprising to learn that as free agency opened at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, the Houston Rockets were waiting on his doorstep. And they weren't just there to check out his seriously souped-up BMW. (He drove slowly past me leaving practice one day during the NBA Finals, and even at 10 mph the thing sounds like a jet engine.)

The Rockets aren't the only ones, either. Pitches from Dallas, New York, Atlanta and Indiana may follow in the coming hours, as teams step up their pursuit of the restricted free-agent big man.

Why such a furor over a player with such modest accomplishments? Because once one adjusts for the paltry minutes Gortat played behind all-world center Dwight Howard, it quickly becomes apparent just how effective he was this past regular season.

Gortat shot 56.7 percent from the floor and averaged a whopping 14.4 rebounds per 40 minutes last season. His rebound rate of 20.3 ranked sixth in the league -- meaning on more than one out of every five missed shot, he got the board -- and his offensive rebound rate of 14.0 was better than Howard's. Gortat also blocked 2.7 shots per 40 minutes, putting him 12th among centers, and while his foul rate was fairly high (5.6 per 40 minutes), it wasn't off the charts.

Overall, his 17.04 player efficiency rating was 19th among centers. But with the exception of Chris Andersen, everyone ahead of him is either on a rookie contract or making more than $9 million a year.

It doesn't appear to be a fluke. He had even better numbers in limited minutes the previous season, and his translated numbers from Europe indicate that at worst he'd be a decent backup center. He's also nimble for his size, making him a good pick-and-roll defender.

Basically, he's a starting NBA center and he's only 24. Given those parameters, a midlevel deal for him suddenly looks like pretty good value.

As a result, Gortat heads my list of under-the-radar free agents for this summer. While names like Hedo Turkoglu, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Paul Millsap and David Lee are likely to dominate the discussion over the next few days, I would argue that spending the midlevel exception or less on players such as these are better values than dropping $10 million a season on big-name players, especially the last three on that list. Here's the rest of my 12-man all-undervalued roster:


Ramon Sessions (restricted, Milwaukee)
There are a few reasons why the Bucks didn't give a qualifying offer to Charlie Villanueva, but one is that it's good poker. By sending a signal to the market that Sessions is the guy they want to keep, the Bucks effectively precluded anyone from making a strong offer to try to wrest him away in free agency and thus almost certainly lowered his final price.

He's worth it, too. Sessions can't make 3s and needs the ball in his hands to be successful, but he's a deft passer who can also score around the rim. Last season, he averaged 18.8 points and 8.3 assists per 40 minutes, and did it efficiently, as he had the ninth-best turnover ratio among point guards. He's also an effective rebounder (5.0 boards per 40 minutes) and rated 13th among point guards in PER.

Best of all, he's only 23. Considering all the veteran point guards getting attention this summer despite presenting far greater risk because of their ages (Jason Kidd, Andre Miller), it's puzzling to see Sessions virtually ignored.



Marvin Williams (restricted, Atlanta)
Continuing that age theme: If you're going to dive into the free agent pool, doesn't it make more sense to add 23-year-olds than 36-year-olds? Well, Williams is 23 and is coming off a strong season, one in which he ranked 13th among small forwards in PER at 16.04 while becoming the Hawks' main defensive stopper on the wings.

At 6-9, he has the length to harass opposing small forwards, and he added the 3-pointer to his arsenal last season, hitting 35.5 percent. His tendency to fade into the background can be vexing, but on the right team that's not necessarily a bad thing. And as his offensive game continues to blossom, he could be the quiet gem in this year's free-agent class. Not that he'll come cheaply -- Atlanta is likely to match any sane offer -- but his restricted status may allow the Hawks to get a great deal on a key building block.



Von Wafer (unrestricted, Rockets)
Another 23-year-old who still has plenty of upside to explore, Wafer is a knockdown shooter who can also put it on the floor and use his athleticism to score at the trim.

While his defense is a work in progress and his passing only a rumor, he averaged 19.9 points per 40 minutes for Houston last season while shooting 39.0 percent on 3s. He's also an unrestricted free agent and the Rockets are facing luxury tax issues, meaning he might be had for the right price. As a source of bench scoring, you could do plenty worse, especially since he has enough upside to eventually start.



Hakim Warrick (restricted, Memphis)
Power forward is the league's easiest position to fill right now, but the lack of attention for Warrick is shocking given how productive he's been for the Grizzlies the past two seasons.

That's partly because he's a lousy defender, but Warrick can flat-out score. He averaged 19 points per 40 minutes for the Griz the past two season, and did it fairly efficiently, with modest turnover rates and true shooting marks in the mid-50s. That's very hard to do on a bad offensive team, and it makes him a strong sixth man candidate for a better club.

Memphis made a qualifying offer, but given its expected pursuit of Lee and draft-day addition of Hasheem Thabeet and their history of parsimony, Warrick can probably be had for a decent price.



Drew Gooden (unrestricted, Spurs)
Yes, he's a little flighty and doesn't always run the plays correctly, and that can make him maddening for a coach. On the other hand, he produces. Gooden has averaged a double-double on a per-40 minutes basis for five straight seasons, and last season was the fourth in the past five in which his PER was well above the league average.

And this may be hard to believe for a guy who has been around the block so much, but he's still only 27. He'll likely come cheap given how far down the power forward hierarchy he is this summer (Villanueva, Millsap, Lee, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass, Lamar Odom and Rasheed Wallace clearly outrank him), but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more effective reserve big man on the market.



Jamario Moon (restricted, Miami)
It's not clear if the Heat are willing to cut into their cap space by re-signing Moon, and if not, it's a good opportunity for another team to get a quality defender on the cheap.

Moon can be frustrating offensively because of his tendency to take quick 3s, but he's not chopped liver out there (35.5 percent) and he doesn't turn the ball over. Additionally, he's one of the best rebounding 3-guards in the league and is long enough to play the 4 in small-ball arrangements.

Though he's 29, Moon has been in the NBA for only two seasons, so he may still have some improvement left in him. Teams looking to split their midlevel exception among multiple players and needing a quality wing should have their eye out for him.



Rasho Nesterovic (unrestricted, Pacers)
Probably the unsexiest free-agent pickup out there, Nesterovic can't jump, looks like he's aiming a rocket launcher when he shoots and has an almost comic ability to avoid drawing fouls. But instead of winning the news conference, he lets you win games.

The 33-year-old 7-footer shot better than 51 percent from the field the past three seasons while using his solid frame to ward off opposing post threats. He's a good passer who can space the floor and his floor-bound game is likely to lose little to age. While he's not worth anywhere near the $8.4 million he made a season ago, he's going to provide somebody with a nice backup center this coming season.



Rodney Carney (unrestricted, Timberwolves)
A rotation player who can likely be had at a bargain price since the Wolves didn't pick up the final year of his contract, making him an unrestricted free agent. Carney offers two things nearly every team is looking for: an athletic wing who can defend and a decent 3-point shooter. He made 35 percent from distance last season while taking more than half his shots from out there.

Carney doesn't have great offensive instincts, so unless he's throwing down a highlight-reel jam he's pretty much a catch-and-shoot guy. But he's a solid role player and, at 25, still has a chance to get better.



Channing Frye (unrestricted, Portland)

Portland opted to turn him loose in a bid for cap space, and Frye has two big items in his favor: He can shoot and he can play center.

He's not a good defensive player and probably needs to be less ambitious with the shooting, but his numbers have been much better when he's played the center position (his first and third seasons) rather than power forward (his second and fourth seasons). As a floor-spacing backup 5 who can also play extended minutes at the 4, Frye seems like a good bargain pickup, especially since he's well-liked in the locker room and is only 26.



Ike Diogu (unrestricted, Kings)
If you're looking at guys who will be available for the minimum or not much more, Diogu is a good place to start. Let's start with the negatives: His practice habits and conditioning have been questionable at best, and he's not a good defender.

But look at the production. Diogu has been in the league four seasons for four different teams, and put up big numbers at every stop. His PER has been above the league average all four seasons, he has averaged more than 22 points per 40 minutes the past two, and he's done it with reasonably efficiency -- a difficult feat when the minutes come in sporadic seven-minute chunks.

As a scoring big man off the bench he can be devastatingly effective, and I'm surprised he hasn't got the chance to do it more regularly. For a team looking to fill that role, he'll be available for pennies.



Othyus Jeffers
My favorite D-League alum that nobody's heard of, Jeffers was third in the NBDL in PER last season behind James White and Courtney Sims. The latter two got call-ups but he didn't, even though Jeffers has a lot of promise. Unlike a lot of D-Leaguers, he's still pretty young -- he doesn't turn 24 til August -- and he's a savage defensive player.

He has some issues that will hurt him in the pros -- he's undersized at 6-3 (his listed height of 6-5 is a joke) and he can't shoot 3s -- but his tenacity should allow him to stick as a defending role player once he gets the chance. If I'm looking at a minimum contract, I'd much rather take a shot on him than on a proven failure.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

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Originally Posted by coopdogg3

Drew Gooden (unrestricted, Spurs)
He'll likely come cheap given how far down the power forward hierarchy he is this summer (Villanueva, Millsap, Lee, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass, Lamar Odom and Rasheed Wallace clearly outrank him), but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more effective reserve big man on the market.

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Going by that list, it'd be either Wallace or Gooden for the Spurs...oy...

Wow, a Hollinger article worth reading. If the Spurs can't get Sheed, Dyess, or Gortat, -- I think they should sign Gooden and Rasho. They would balance each other's weaknesses.

very nice article, especially good points on ramon sessions, marvin williams (shouldnt be overlooked but he hasnt played many games lately due to injuries), and carney

i do disagree with gortat being "overlooked"

also, i dont think rasho nesterovic should be on this list. i'd rather have fabricio. channing is ok if you can get him at a discount. he's been an nba dissappointment so far. he reminds me of tony battie in his prime but channing is a little bit better

If we can get Sheed we really need to try to package Bonner/Finley and trade them off for whatever. Perhaps sign Gooden or Warrick after that.

Defense really is that giant hole in Hollinger's analysis, is it not?

Several of the players mentioned here are along the lines of "Yeah, he's a crappy defender, but look at his PER!"

I'm not saying his numbers are completely worthless, but it seems like he throws a lot of context out the window too.

On a related note, 35% from 3 isn't exactly the benchmark I'd be aiming for. At that percentage you're not killing your team, but you aren't exactly helping them win either. It's just like treading water. I don't know why that's what caught my eye from the article, but it just did.

Re-reading my own post, I realize I'm just stating something everyone here already knew. I just felt like it needed to be said again for the 36,000th time. Please resume your normal programming.
:toast

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Originally Posted by El Jefe

Defense really is that giant hole in Hollinger's analysis, is it not?

Several of the players mentioned here are along the lines of "Yeah, he's a crappy defender, but look at his PER!"

I'm not saying his numbers are completely worthless, but it seems like he throws a lot of context out the window too.

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I agree. Defensive liabilities are often not so much "under the radar" as they are "impediments to winning."

/Jackie Butler

you mean Jackie - Hollinger's steal of the 2006 free agency - Butler?

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Rasho Nesterovic (unrestricted, Pacers)
Probably the unsexiest free-agent pickup out there, Nesterovic can't jump, looks like he's aiming a rocket launcher when he shoots and has an almost comic ability to avoid drawing fouls. But instead of winning the news conference, he lets you win games.

The 33-year-old 7-footer shot better than 51 percent from the field the past three seasons while using his solid frame to ward off opposing post threats. He's a good passer who can space the floor and his floor-bound game is likely to lose little to age. While he's not worth anywhere near the $8.4 million he made a season ago, he's going to provide somebody with a nice backup center this coming season.

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He's always liked Rasho.

I would not mind Drew Gooden off the bench for the Spurs. He's instant offense for the most part.

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Originally Posted by coopdogg3

Probably belongs on the NBA forum, but I thought I would post it here.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...eagents-090701


Von Wafer (unrestricted, Rockets)
Another 23-year-old who still has plenty of upside to explore, Wafer is a knockdown shooter who can also put it on the floor and use his athleticism to score at the trim.

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I don't care how much of a scrub the guy is... he's a professional basketball player. I would hope he can "score at the trim."

He's actually got a pretty good point about Frye. He has been much better as a C, despite his being lighter than most at the position. He'd be an interesting Bonner replacement. His perimeter offensive tendencies would be a decent fit given that 2 of our PF's are happiest down low (TD, Blair).

Also, I can see the braintrust wanting to have 4 NBA experienced bigs. That means we need to add 2 experienced bigs, or 3 if we move Bonner.

warrick and frye would be the ones off this list that would be bearable

Othyus Jeffers is a very interesting player. He was the best rookie and the best defender in the D league in the opinion of many scouts. Unlike many "under the radar" types who don't play D, it's his greatest strength.

Rodney Carney might get a look from the Spurs.

I still wouldn't mind Moon or Hermann (though not listed) coming off the bench behind RJ

I hate the per 40 minute stat. Most of the players that post the 20 pp 40 min would not really do that if they had to play that many minutes. I doubt Diogu will ever score 20 points per game.

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Originally Posted by elbamba

I hate the per 40 minute stat. Most of the players that post the 20 pp 40 min would not really do that if they had to play that many minutes. I doubt Diogu will ever score 20 points per game.

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I totally agree, if you go by the 10th or 11th mans stats expended to 40 minutes doesn't take into consideration they are not playing starters, if Ian hypothetically put up 8 points in three minutes against Robin Lopez and Louis Amundson how is that representative of how he would fair against Shaq and Amare. Very misguiding.

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Originally Posted by elbamba

I hate the per 40 minute stat. Most of the players that post the 20 pp 40 min would not really do that if they had to play that many minutes. I doubt Diogu will ever score 20 points per game.

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I agree if you're trying to find a starter and you just multiply his numbers to see what they'd be if he played more-- Gortat's a good example of that. But for a team looking for a decent back up to play 12 mpg, i think it's a very good tool.

Where is Dwayne Schintzius on that list? :repost:

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Originally Posted by SouthTexasRancher

Where is Dwayne Schintzius on that list? :repost:

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This is the best Spurs draft pick....:lmao:lmao

I hated that draft.

Under the radar = desperate, very desperate

We better start looking under rocks, oops we did, Marcus Haislip. NICE!

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Originally Posted by 4RINGS

Under the radar = desperate, very desperate

We better start looking under rocks, oops we did, Marcus Haislip. NICE!

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The Spurs are masters of the under-the-radar move: drafting Ginobili, signing Bowen, drafting Hill, signing Mason, etc. They have the luxury of doing this more than most teams thanks to Duncan-- and now that the Big 3 are The Big 4 with RJ, I think they might do it again... by finding someone who can play the PF spot for 15 or so efficient, defense-oriented minutes a game.

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Originally Posted by elbamba

I hate the per 40 minute stat. Most of the players that post the 20 pp 40 min would not really do that if they had to play that many minutes. I doubt Diogu will ever score 20 points per game.

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That's not what it's for. You use the stat to compare players' production in an easier way, since simply looking at ppg or rpg or apg stats create a distortion due to inconsistent minutes played. Naturally no one is playing 40 mpg.

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Originally Posted by 4RINGS

This is the best Spurs draft pick....:lmao:lmao

I hated that draft.

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Me too!!! He looked like a long-haired Walrus going down the court.