Spurs new season with numbers. (informal and unofficial)

Last season our stats were

Pts: 97.1
Reb: 41.1
Ast: 21.2

Lets try to see how our stats will look like this year and lets assume that our starting five are the following:

TP/Mason/RJ/TD/Dice

TP is nearing his prime so we expect him to produce the same if not better numbers as last year.

Mason should do better --like most spurs do during their second year. Plus he is leaner and motivated. So I think its safe to assume that he 'll do at least the same.

RJ no doubt is a major upgrade from Fin, who produced 9.7 pts, 3.3 Reb and 1.4 ast last season. Lets say RJ produces 15 pts, 4.5 reb and 2 ast. His stats were better last year, but there is only one ball... plus I don't want to blow things out of proportion :)

TD is mister consistency, so I don't expect his production to drop that much.

Dice is an upgrade from Bonner, who had about 8.2 pts and less than 5 reb. Its not too much to assume that Dice will give us, a 12/8 or 10/7.

So roughly speaking our new stats look like this

Pts: 105.1
Reb: 46.5
Ast: 22.5

Lakers stats last year were as follows:

Pts: 102.4
Reb: 40.9
Ast: 19.8

And an argument can be made that other than Ron (who is an upgrade) and maybe Lamar and Pau playing at the same level as last year, Kobe and the rest of the team is just getting older. Derek Fisher is becoming a liability and Bynum is a question mark. I don't expect their production to go up that much if any.

Obviously my analysis is neither scientific nor accurate, but hopefully is a good indication of things to come. What i like most is that I used stats with Manu NOT healthy and w/o the improvement of Gorgie.

Which means that as long as Manu is somewhat healthy and as long as our rookies play at the level of Fab, Bruce and KT, not only we should be a much much much better team, but as good if not better of the likes of Lakers/Cavs/Mavs/.... etc. NO ONE and I mean NO ONE seems to have such major upgrades in the off season other than the spurs.

Fair Warning with Manu healthy in 07-08 our stats were:

Reb: 41.3 Ast: 21.0 Pts: 95.4

So one can argue that we are better off w/o Manu which is NOT the case, its just goes on to show that all this analysis it could be BS.

You may have noticed that I made fun of Hollinger's ridiculous analysis in the past. Let me say that my analysis maybe even worse(!) but I sure do hope and I have my fingers crossed that I am not :P

Last word; One should not only look at Pts/Reb/Ast but also consider stats like pts allowed, Reb allowed, TO, etc.... I just dont have that much time on my hands or the knowledge to do so :P

For example how is the addition of RJ is going to change the pts allowed? How do you estimate something like that?

We all know that Spurs will be a much better team next year, what I think is that we may don't have to rely on Manu's health and the production of our rookies that much. How awesome that would be?!

Any thoughts are welcome :)

Good Analysis! :toast:toast

We might score over 100, but it really depends on how the team changes the offensive and defensive philosophies.

I think that, instead of assuming the addition of more scoring means the team has a higher score, it could instead just mean we score more efficiently, and end up with a greater point differential.

I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.

speculation like this doesn't take into account thousands of variables that should be.

The most I think our average would be is about 100, but I think it will probably be around 99-98 but like another poster said not many more points but more efficient.

I think the Spurs will average around 99 ppg. Though RJ provides offense, Tim and Manu will probably score a little less than their averages in recent years as Pop manages their minutes. I think the only way they'd average 105 ppg would be abandoning their defense and trying to run. And I don't think that would happen.

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Originally Posted by Kori Ellis

I think the Spurs will average around 99 ppg. Though RJ provides offense, Tim and Manu will probably score a little less than their averages in recent years as Pop manages their minutes. I think the only way they'd average 105 ppg would be abandoning their defense and trying to run. And I don't think that would happen.

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I pray it doesn't....we don't need to be Phoenix or Dallas of the mid 2000's

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Originally Posted by Spursfan092120

I pray it doesn't....we don't need to be Phoenix or Dallas of the mid 2000's

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You beat me to it. :lol

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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Originally Posted by pawe

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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It's all about the post-season.

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Originally Posted by pawe

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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:wow

Somehow I doubt Pop agrees with your "logic".

The Spurs scored 97ppg last year. I think they'll be around that number again this year. This offseason was about getting personnel to make them better at what they do, not to entirely change what they do.

Spurs only get so many possesions per game. Manu and RJ will take away all the touches Finley and Mason got last year.

Therefore Mason and Finley's numbers will most likely decline. Maybe not efficiency wise but points/ assists/ rebound wise.

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Originally Posted by pawe

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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No, thats silly, you don't all of a sudden start playing defense. You work on defense every practice , every game. It is a way of life, you don't all of a sudden decide to change styles and play D.

It's all about PACE and efficiency that will determine what they do as a team. You can't just summarily think that because those new guys are here, that everyone's numbers are going to go up.
There are only so many possessions in a typical basketball game, even less if Pop has his way. How is it that TP, Manu, Tim, Roger, or even anyone else going to get their typical numbers? Answer: THEY WON'T, at least not individually. As it's been for every championship Spurs team, the team is better collectively than they are individually.

Your analysis sucks

Mavs 2010 SW Division Champs
Mavs 2006/2010 NBA Champs

Your analysis is way off.

First of all, like some posters mentioned, no way there will be a 8 PPG jump in our numbers. If that is the case, our pace would be somewhere like #8 in the NBA, which would not be possible. Again, rebounding, not possible again due to pace. Next, at least be consistent with assists, if you are going to make up these high numbers, at least increase the assist average so that it makes sense.

I can't see the Spurs change their game much. they might even reduce the pace, the higher overall quality of the core will even lead to a slower pace, more half court sets, more ball movement and patiently working for high % opportunities.
they might end with a higher per game scoring average, because we can expect that Spurs don't fall in a scoring slump on some nights, like they did several times in the last seasons. so wee will likely see fewer below 85 games, but we also won't see the Spurs more often score 100+ than we did in the last years.

I see their steals per game picking up and there fast break points rising as well , other than that i think that their play book might be pretty much the same.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.

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taking Bonner, Oberto and Bowen out of the rotation?

I see our avg around 100-101

I like the analysis, personally, you can't necessarily fault him for his assessments because the author DID give several disclaimers about the authenticity and accuracy, so those telling him he's wrong for offering an opinion when you haven't the courage to defend your opinion is like complaining about who the President of the U.S. is when you didn't even vote! So come one, come all you hypocrites, and I'll serve you up a fresh slice of humble pie with you choice of a side of ignorance or apathy.

Kudos for being so bold as to offer a honest and truthful opinion without getting too preachy.

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Originally Posted by timtonymanurich

I like the analysis, personally, you can't necessarily fault him for his assessments because the author DID give several disclaimers about the authenticity and accuracy, so those telling him he's wrong for offering an opinion when you haven't the courage to defend your opinion is like complaining about who the President of the U.S. is when you didn't even vote! So come one, come all you hypocrites, and I'll serve you up a fresh slice of humble pie with you choice of a side of ignorance or apathy.

Kudos for being so bold as to offer a honest and truthful opinion without getting too preachy.

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He's not wrong for offering his opinion. It's just that most of us feel that his opinion is based on flawed logic and does not result in a reasonable conclusion.

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Originally Posted by exstatic View Post
I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.

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Originally Posted by hater

taking Bonner, Oberto and Bowen out of the rotation?

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Bonner, Oberto, and Popafinley out of the rotation could easily add 8 points.

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Originally Posted by pawe

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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And my, how well that has worked for them!

http://www.advantagefixtures.com/jpg...casesdtr70.jpg

i rather allow lower than 90 instead of score over 100

The spurs can score around 100-102 pts pergame with no problem. To do that however, this pick n roll non-sense has to stop. The utah Jazz run some beautiful half-court sets that involve all 5 players moving without the ball. D-will and Boozer might run a pick n roll on one side of the floor while the 3 other players are back cutting and setting screens for each other on the other side of the floor. So if Williams is kept out of the paint his other option is Korver coming off a screen for 3. If He gets half-way down the lane and is cut off his other option is Millsap underneath the basket, wideopen. The Spurs offense is as follows, 1) Run 3-4 pick n rolls with Parker/Duncan and then Bonner, Finley and Mason stand behind the arc waiting for an open 3. 2) Parker gives it to Duncan in the post on one side of the floor while Bonner, Finley and Mason wait behind the 3pt arc for a shot. That kind of offense gets you no-where. Tim Duncan doesn't get that many double teams anymore, Tony Parker is allowed to torch defenders so he'll get worn out by games end. J.Sloan system works if you have star players or average players. Pops system works only if you have star players and shooters. Just think if Pop took some of sloans stuff. You would have Mason Jr. coming off screens for 3 or RJ back-cutting for a pass from Parker or Parker getting half-way down the Lane and finding Blair wideopen underneath the basket. Thats not even factoring in Manu/Duncan. Unfortunately that will never happen. RJ is just gonna be a role player that Pop will use to post up every now and then.

It is always fun to see someones analysis. Personally, I think the pace of the game will determine everything.

Season...PPG......RPG......APG
1998-99 92.8.....44.0.....22.0
1999-00 96.2.....43.8.....22.2
2000-01 96.2.....44.1.....21.7
2001-02 96.7.....42.4.....20.0
2002-03 95.8.....42.6.....20.0
2003-04 91.5.....45.1.....20.4
2004-05 96.2.....42.4.....21.6
2005-06 95.6.....41.5.....20.9
2006-07 98.5.....40.7.....22.1
2007-08 95.4.....41.3.....21.0
2009-09 97.0.....41.0.....21.2
------------------------------
11 yr avg 95.6.....42.6.....21.2

See how unrealistic the OP projections are when viewed against the past 11 Popovich-guided seasons?

The most important stats will be ones not referenced here. Point Diff and Opp. FG%.

Guessing can be fun but let's get real, folks.

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Originally Posted by Solid D

Season...PPG......RPG......APG
1998-99 92.8.....44.0.....22.0
1999-00 96.2.....43.8.....22.2
2000-01 96.2.....44.1.....21.7
2001-02 96.7.....42.4.....20.0
2002-03 95.8.....42.6.....20.0
2003-04 91.5.....45.1.....20.4
2004-05 96.2.....42.4.....21.6
2005-06 95.6.....41.5.....20.9
2006-07 98.5.....40.7.....22.1
2007-08 95.4.....41.3.....21.0
2009-09 97.0.....41.0.....21.2
------------------------------
11 yr avg 95.6.....42.6.....21.2

See how unrealistic the OP projections are when viewed against the past 11 Popovich-guided seasons?

The most important stats will be ones not referenced here. Point Diff and Opp. FG%.

Guessing can be fun but let's get real, folks.

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Your stats are flawed because of the non-handcheck rules starting from the 2004-2005 season. I suggest only those stats be used and they are significantly higher too.

~98 ppg, 43 rpg, 23 apg.

That'd make me really happy but it's probably a bit optimistic.

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Originally Posted by portnoy1

The Spurs offense is as follows, 1) Run 3-4 pick n rolls with Parker/Duncan and then Bonner, Finley and Mason stand behind the arc waiting for an open 3. 2) Parker gives it to Duncan in the post on one side of the floor while Bonner, Finley and Mason wait behind the 3pt arc for a shot. That kind of offense gets you no-where. Tim Duncan doesn't get that many double teams anymore, Tony Parker is allowed to torch defenders so he'll get worn out by games end. J.Sloan system works if you have star players or average players. Pops system works only if you have star players and shooters. Just think if Pop took some of sloans stuff. You would have Mason Jr. coming off screens for 3 or RJ back-cutting for a pass from Parker or Parker getting half-way down the Lane and finding Blair wideopen underneath the basket. Thats not even factoring in Manu/Duncan. Unfortunately that will never happen. RJ is just gonna be a role player that Pop will use to post up every now and then.

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The problem was lack of talent, Bonner and Finley are more reliable taking a set shot at the 3pt line. Furthermore, both are completely unreliable driving to the hoop.

I do expect a more dynamic offense this time with the athletic bodies we have. However, I doubt we'll have a system as complex and well executed as the Jazz. The Spurs tend to get their points the easy way and if we ever get in a bind, we rely too much on the talents of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to get us out of it.

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Originally Posted by ceperez

The problem was lack of talent, Bonner and Finley are more reliable taking a set shot at the 3pt line. Furthermore, both are completely unreliable driving to the hoop.

I do expect a more dynamic offense this time with the athletic bodies we have. However, I doubt we'll have a system as complex and well executed as the Jazz. The Spurs tend to get their points the easy way and if we ever get in a bind, we rely too much on the talents of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to get us out of it.

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Whats easier telling tim duncan to post up all game on a bad knee and score over a 7 footer? telling Parker to run around for the with the ball and score while 3 guys stand around? or option 3 tell the other players to move without the ball and get layups and open 15fters all game?

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Originally Posted by Solid D

Season...PPG......RPG......APG
1998-99 92.8.....44.0.....22.0
1999-00 96.2.....43.8.....22.2
2000-01 96.2.....44.1.....21.7
2001-02 96.7.....42.4.....20.0
2002-03 95.8.....42.6.....20.0
2003-04 91.5.....45.1.....20.4
2004-05 96.2.....42.4.....21.6
2005-06 95.6.....41.5.....20.9
2006-07 98.5.....40.7.....22.1
2007-08 95.4.....41.3.....21.0
2008-09 97.0.....41.0.....21.2
------------------------------
11 yr avg 95.6.....42.6.....21.2

See how unrealistic the OP projections are when viewed against the past 11 Popovich-guided seasons?

The most important stats will be ones not referenced here. Point Diff and Opp. FG%.

Guessing can be fun but let's get real, folks.

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Originally Posted by Chieflion

Your stats are flawed because of the non-handcheck rules starting from the 2004-2005 season. I suggest only those stats be used and they are significantly higher too.

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The stats are from NBA.com so they aren't really flawed. I think you mean my argument is flawed. My argument is that the OP's projections were unrealistic in view of the past 11 seasons. The hand-check rules changed in 1999-2000 and again in 2004. If you had taken the time to do the math yourself and posted it...then maye you wouldn't have bothered posting it.

You would have seen that the PPG were only 1.6 PPG higher in the years you suggested but the rebounding numbers were down 2.3 RPG and assists were so close +0.3 that it wasn't worth mentioning. Here are the numbers you suggested we post:

1998-99 through 2003-04
94.9....43.7....21.1
2004-05 through 2008-09 seasons
PPG.....RPG.....APG
96.5....41.4....21.4

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Originally Posted by Solid D

The stats are from NBA.com so they aren't really flawed. I think you mean my argument is flawed. My argument is that the OP's projections were unrealistic in view of the past 11 seasons. The hand-check rules changed in 1999-2000 and again in 2004. If you had taken the time to do the math yourself and posted it...then maye you wouldn't have bothered posting it.

You would have seen that the PPG were only 1.6 PPG higher in the years you suggested but the rebounding numbers were down 2.3 RPG and assists were so close +0.3 that it wasn't worth mentioning. Here are the numbers you suggested we post:

1998-99 through 2003-04
94.9....43.7....21.1
2004-05 through 2008-09 seasons
PPG.....RPG.....APG
96.5....41.4....21.4

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What was the pace? Pace adjusted stats would look better.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.

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A legitimate 3rd scoring option which for the better part of last season we did not have.

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Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins

A legitimate 3rd scoring option which for the better part of last season we did not have.

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Last year, the Spurs actually scored 97.0 points a game which was one of the highest in Popovich history.

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Originally Posted by Chieflion

Last year, the Spurs actually scored 97.0 points a game which was one of the highest in Popovich history.

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Thats casue they didnt play as much defense. The team Popovich had could put up numbers. Parker / Duncan with 3 perimeter shooters in Bonner/Mason Jr. / Finley. The spurs also took alot of 3pt shots. On the otherhand they couldnt stop anybody. Bonner moving into the starting spot meant that their would be an huge opportunity to get open shots when Tim is doubled, He tool advantage ( 8.2pts per game career high ) However Defensively that meant that whatever center was playing against the spurs would have a field day ( Bonner 4.8rbds / 0.32 blocks per game ). Pop exchange a defensive team in Bowen/Oberto for an Offensive team Mason Jr. / Bonner.

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Originally Posted by portnoy1

Thats casue they didnt play as much defense. The team Popovich had could put up numbers. Parker / Duncan with 3 perimeter shooters in Bonner/Mason Jr. / Finley. The spurs also took alot of 3pt shots. On the otherhand they couldnt stop anybody. Bonner moving into the starting spot meant that their would be an huge opportunity to get open shots when Tim is doubled, He tool advantage ( 8.2pts per game career high ) However Defensively that meant that whatever center was playing against the spurs would have a field day ( Bonner 4.8rbds / 0.32 blocks per game ). Pop exchange a defensive team in Bowen/Oberto for an Offensive team Mason Jr. / Bonner.

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:tu It worked in 2006-07 with Oberto/Horry/Elson.
With Bonner/Thomas/Oberto in 2008-09...not so much.

We are not going to average 105 points per game. It is irrelevant anyway. The GSW scored like 107 points per game last year. The key stat in this area is point differential. I would also submit that if Pop rests Duncan and McDyess on B2B's that the relevant stat will be point differential in games that the Spurs aren't resting key players. Also, with the influx of new players the team's true potential won't be seen IMO until the last 25 games of the season. In addition, if we have a spot pretty much wrapped up by the end of the season there is no telling who might be resting, so I might look at point differential in games 55 through 80 that the team is not resting key players not due to injury. There you have it....analyze that.:wakeup

John Hollinger, Jr.

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Originally Posted by pawe

Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.

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And that's why Phoenix is mentioned in the same breath as SA, Chicago, LA and Boston right?

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Originally Posted by buttsR4rebounding

We are not going to average 105 points per game. It is irrelevant anyway. The GSW scored like 107 points per game last year. The key stat in this area is point differential. I would also submit that if Pop rests Duncan and McDyess on B2B's that the relevant stat will be point differential in games that the Spurs aren't resting key players. Also, with the influx of new players the team's true potential won't be seen IMO until the last 25 games of the season. In addition, if we have a spot pretty much wrapped up by the end of the season there is no telling who might be resting, so I might look at point differential in games 55 through 80 that the team is not resting key players not due to injury. There you have it....analyze that.:wakeup

John Hollinger, Jr.

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+1

Ahhh yes, the much maligned point differential is kinda like a window into the soul of a team. There have been numerous threads about this and I'll argue till the cows come home that Point Diff is the single most telling stat. Period.

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Originally Posted by Chieflion

What was the pace? Pace adjusted stats would look better.

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Unsure of what you point would be. Spurs pace last year was around 90.5...somewhere near the bottom. It's always pretty low. I know your original point in this thread was that 105 ppg and 46 rpg were unrealistic...as was mine. What other point are you trying to make here?

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Originally Posted by Solid D

Unsure of what you point would be. Spurs pace last year was around 90.5...somewhere near the bottom. It's always pretty low. I know your original point in this thread was that 105 ppg and 46 rpg were unrealistic...as was mine. What other point are you trying to make here?

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Nothing else. It would make things more clear that the Spurs were never meant to run a fast paced game. Most of the top teams do not play a fast pace with the exception of the Lakers. The Spurs should go with what works and not change their style drastically which will affect the team. Most of the Spurs players would not be able to adjust to the high pace anyway.

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Originally Posted by portnoy1

Thats casue they didnt play as much defense. The team Popovich had could put up numbers. Parker / Duncan with 3 perimeter shooters in Bonner/Mason Jr. / Finley. The spurs also took alot of 3pt shots. On the otherhand they couldnt stop anybody. Bonner moving into the starting spot meant that their would be an huge opportunity to get open shots when Tim is doubled, He tool advantage ( 8.2pts per game career high ) However Defensively that meant that whatever center was playing against the spurs would have a field day ( Bonner 4.8rbds / 0.32 blocks per game ). Pop exchange a defensive team in Bowen/Oberto for an Offensive team Mason Jr. / Bonner.

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A top 7 defensive team in the NBA and Oberto was not what you call a good defender. Bonner was a decent man defender and not as sucky as the rest of you think he is. He is just not starter calibre.

The scoring offense could go up if Pop puts more emphasis on offensive rebounding, something I doubt he'll do since it will hurt his defense. If Blair inherits Duncan's role of primary offensive rebounder and does a better job of it than Duncan it's possible, but I don't see the kind of bump you are anticipating.

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Originally Posted by Chieflion

A top 7 defensive team in the NBA and Oberto was not what you call a good defender. Bonner was a decent man defender and not as sucky as the rest of you think he is. He is just not starter calibre.

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Oberto is a much smarter player all around. He is a much better defender against nowitzki than bonner is. Bonner doesn't play good man to man defense and his help defense is atrocious. Oberto allows Dirk to get up a shot but doesn't allow him to drive the ball where he wants to. Oberto can also rotate and draw charges. Bonner would try to deny nowitzki the ball, which resulted in overplaying and touch fouls and a broken down defense when nowitzki would drive because he was always out of position. Oberto gives Dirk some room and contest his shots without fouling, which also allows him the ability to force nowitzki to help defense or take a step back and stop a driving guard from getting an unmolested layup.

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Originally Posted by portnoy1

Oberto is a much smarter player all around. He is a much better defender against nowitzki than bonner is. Bonner doesn't play good man to man defense and his help defense is atrocious. Oberto allows Dirk to get up a shot but doesn't allow him to drive the ball where he wants to. Oberto can also rotate and draw charges. Bonner would try to deny nowitzki the ball, which resulted in overplaying and touch fouls and a broken down defense when nowitzki would drive because he was always out of position. Oberto gives Dirk some room and contest his shots without fouling, which also allows him the ability to force nowitzki to help defense or take a step back and stop a driving guard from getting an unmolested layup.

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Ya, and Nowitzki is just one person. What about the others. This was also because of the international games Argentina had with germany, so Oberto knew how to guard Nowitzki better than most of the NBA.

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Originally Posted by Chieflion

Ya, and Nowitzki is just one person. What about the others. This was also because of the international games Argentina had with germany, so Oberto knew how to guard Nowitzki better than most of the NBA.

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exactly my point bro, Oberto also has a high basketball IQ which covers alot of ground if your not physically gifted. Bonner is not physically gifted or has a high BBall IQ. He has his 3pt shot which comes and goes like any shooter. Oberto's IQ doesnt do that, He's not smart one game and then plays like a rookie the next. IQ is consistent, 3pt shooting most certainly is not. Oberto Over Bonner any day, wouldn't you agree?