The Art of War - Egyptian Uprising

Just look at what's transpiring in Egypt right now. Most people involved in an uprising haven't a clue as to how it should be done... if I was protesting against the government and it was literally do or die - take a bullet, the first thing I'd do is divide and conquer...how is this done? well the military has families I'm sure if they went home to no families they might just rethink their loyalties to the government. It's just a strategy , Art of War, just saying....

Right now they're just getting picked off like simple ducklings...

Peaceful Protesters who are being attacked gain the sympathy of an ever greater share of the populace eventually leading to an unignorable force. Protesters who go and kidnap/kill families of the police gain the vitriol of an ever greater share of the populace eventually leading to being crushed.

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Originally Posted by Drachen

Peaceful Protesters who are being attacked gain the sympathy of an ever greater share of the populace eventually leading to an unignorable force. Protesters who go and kidnap/kill families of the police gain the vitriol of an ever greater share of the populace eventually leading to being crushed.

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:lol in the US maybe...but see in Muslim lands that's not really bound to happen when you're dealing with Totalitarian regimes...it's do or die it isn't a Democracy and it's not likely the West will intervene...perhaps when thousands start to die the UN may take a look at the situation...

To win you need either the guns or the numbers (here or there) and you are suggesting that the protesters go head to head against those with the guns before they have the numbers. Strategically, this is a horrible plan.

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Originally Posted by Koolaid_Man

Just look at what's transpiring in Egypt right now. Most people involved in an uprising haven't a clue as to how it should be done... if I was protesting against the government and it was literally do or die - take a bullet, the first thing I'd do is divide and conquer...how is this done? well the military has families I'm sure if they went home to no families they might just rethink their loyalties to the government. It's just a strategy , Art of War, just saying....

Right now they're just getting picked off like simple ducklings...

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You have a profound grasp of The Way

thx god this will never happend here in San Antonio

Protesters chase police from main Cairo square

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_egypt_protest

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CAIRO – Thousands of anti-government protesters wielding rocks, glass and sticks chased hundreds of riot police away from the main square in downtown Cairo and several of the policemen stripped off their uniforms and badges and joined the demonstrators.

An Associated Press reporter saw the protesters cheering the police who joined them and hoisting them on their shoulders in one of the many dramatic and chaotic scenes across Egypt on Friday.

After chasing the police, thousands of protesters were able to flood into the huge Tahrir Square downtown after being kept out most of the day by a very heavy police presence. Few police could be seen around the square after the confrontation.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

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The Iranian government effectively crushed its own popular movement after their fraudulent election. (one larger town had more votes for the government candidates than it had people)

Now that Tunisia has ousted its leader, I wonder if Iran will see protests again.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...my_vote%3F.jpg

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Originally Posted by Koolaid_Man

Just look at what's transpiring in Egypt right now. Most people involved in an uprising haven't a clue as to how it should be done... if I was protesting against the government and it was literally do or die - take a bullet, the first thing I'd do is divide and conquer...how is this done? well the military has families I'm sure if they went home to no families they might just rethink their loyalties to the government. It's just a strategy , Art of War, just saying....

Right now they're just getting picked off like simple ducklings...

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The big question is always what will the military do.

Once these things get rolling police tend to be simply outnumbered. The retreat of the police from the main Cairo square is an example of that.

Time to stay glued to the news, heh.

I'm sure there's plenty of revolutionary leaders who would like Koolaid. He would make a great conscript during a real revolution with his readiness to give his life for the cause early in the affair while possessing little weaponry. A little social influence is all the ammo Kool needs. He could realistically be an effective meat shield for the smarter peeps whose intellect is needed to run the country when things are overturned.

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Originally Posted by z0sa

I'm sure there's plenty of revolutionary leaders who would like Koolaid. He would make a great conscript during a real revolution with his readiness to give his life for the cause early in the affair while possessing little weaponry. Effectively becoming a meat shield for the smarter peeps whose intellect is needed to run the country when things are overturned.

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Did you read what one of the main causes of the Tunisian uprising was?

Some guy, after being humiliated in public by security forces, marched over to city hall and set himself on fire.

That kinda shocked a lot of people into action.

Never underestimate the power of moral authority. This point was made earlier in the thread, and is as true today as it was when it was successfully used by Ghandi, MLK, Jr, and the Irish to end the Troubles.

Setting yourself on fire sounds more like shock and awe than setting an example as some moral authority. Although I agree "legitimate" moral authorities like religious leaders have massive impacts on any people's revolution.

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Originally Posted by z0sa

Setting yourself on fire sounds more like shock and awe than setting an example as some moral authority. Although I agree "legitimate" moral authorities like religious leaders have massive impacts on any people's revolution.

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Suicide bombers also get "shock and awe" with their deaths.

Compare these statements:

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I am willing to die in a horrible, painful way, because of my cause, but won't hurt anyone else.

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I am willing to die in a horrible way, because of my cause, but will also purposefully kill and injure as many people as possible. If anyone innocent gets in the way, I accept that.

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I am willing to brave water cannons, beatings, and police dogs for my cause, but will not raise a hand against this violence.

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Shock and awe yes, but not hurting anybody else in the process creates moral authority.

AJZ has a live feed up.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Interesting dynamic developing between the protesters and the military? Protesters cheering the appearance of tanks.....crewmen emerging from tanks to shake hands.

I think it was inspirational in nature, RG, but a dude setting himself on fire to show how bullshit the regime is doesn't strike me as much as a moral authority as simply, an example. He said, "I'm willing to die by my own hand than live with the state as governed."

Is it an appeal to moral principles? Perhaps, but the enslaved and oppressed rarely contemplate the moral implications of their uprising, instead focusing on the fact they're getting a few or more certain, inalienable rights trampled upon. That is, indeed, the argument of today's suicide bombing extremists.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

The big question is always what will the military do.

Once these things get rolling police tend to be simply outnumbered. The retreat of the police from the main Cairo square is an example of that.

Time to stay glued to the news, heh.

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I don't know if you have read or heard this, but apparently the army is expected to side with the people. The protesters are even chanting "Army Army, come and save us"

Edit: Maybe I should finish reading the thread before I post LOL

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Originally Posted by TeyshaBlue

Interesting dynamic developing between the protesters and the military? Protesters cheering the appearance of tanks.....crewmen emerging from tanks to shake hands.

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A couple of things spring to mind immediately.

Reminds me of the way the Yeltsin climbed on the top of the tank to give a speech when the Red Army was sent to seize the White House after the USSR fell. Yes Russia has a White House.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House,_Moscow

If you are old enough to remember the fall of the USSR, hardliners attempted a coup to re-impose the old USSR after it was dissolved. The hardliners failed, obviously, because the army wouldn't back them.

It also reminds me of the initial Chinese military response to Tiananmen. The initial army units were units local to the area. They allowed themselves to be flummoxed by very insistant protestors.

http://youoffendmeyouoffendmyfamily....acing-tank.jpg

After that failed, the Chinese leadership ordered the local units out, then more loyal units from other areas in. Those tank/vehicle crews didn't have any qualms whatsoever about the squishy protestors that tried to stop them.

http://www.cnd.org/June4th/photos/mascr003.gif

I will leave out some of the more graphic pictures available.

Hopefully this ends better than it did for the Chinese students.

http://totallycoolpix.com/2011/01/the-egypt-protests/

wow. something made in the usa.

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

http://totallycoolpix.com/2011/01/the-egypt-protests/

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Awesome pictures. The website lives up to its name. Thank you!

If I were one of those police in the pictures having to face that kind of shit, I would suddenly develop a case of the flu. Fuck that, you couldn't pay me enough for that kind of work.

I am surprised that the "plainclothes" police haven't been targeted in any of these pictures. I would think that the hated "thugs" would not be able to operate, but these kinds of paramilitary jackboots worked in Iran.

Fascinating.

The problem in Egypt is that Mubarak is old and has completely lost control of the situation.

Soon the young new Mubarak will emerge and life will move on.

After Tuthmosis III, Amenothep III will be enthroned.

Democratically, of course.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Awesome pictures. The website lives up to its name. Thank you!

If I were one of those police in the pictures having to face that kind of shit, I would suddenly develop a case of the flu. Fuck that, you couldn't pay me enough for that kind of work.

I am surprised that the "plainclothes" police haven't been targeted in any of these pictures. I would think that the hated "thugs" would not be able to operate, but these kinds of paramilitary jackboots worked in Iran.

Fascinating.

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Agree on both the amazing pictures and your comments.

didnt realize there were so many hot women in egypt :wow

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Originally Posted by Koolaid_Man

Just look at what's transpiring in Egypt right now. Most people involved in an uprising haven't a clue as to how it should be done... if I was protesting against the government and it was literally do or die - take a bullet, the first thing I'd do is divide and conquer...how is this done? well the military has families I'm sure if they went home to no families they might just rethink their loyalties to the government. It's just a strategy , Art of War, just saying....

Right now they're just getting picked off like simple ducklings...

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http://askthetrainer.com/image-files/pai_mei.jpg

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Originally Posted by Koolaid_Man

:lol in the US maybe...but see in Muslim lands that's not really bound to happen when you're dealing with Totalitarian regimes...it's do or die it isn't a Democracy and it's not likely the West will intervene...perhaps when thousands start to die the UN may take a look at the situation...

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Non-violence is a documented way of inspiring uprisings. It's pretty effective, actually, Gandhi being one of the more famous examples. Christ was a pretty well-known sacrifice as well.

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Originally Posted by clambake

wow. something made in the usa.

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Nice one...lol

Seriously though, with all this uprising in Egypt, where will we send the people we need to torture?

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Originally Posted by LnGrrrR

Seriously though, with all this uprising in Egypt, where will we send the people we need to torture?

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Gitmo is still open so lets keep it in house.

Coming from a country with plenty of experience in civil unrest and rioting, all I can say is that the mix of curfews, police beating up rioters and the military in the streets means sooner or later the end is near for the current goverment. From what I've seen and read, Mubarak changing his gabinet isn't enough. The protesters are asking for real change in the institutions.

The problem is what comes after. There will be many forces trying to take over the power vacuums that all that rioting creates. A transition into a secular, moderate goverment and democracy? Or an alliance between religious leaders and the military a.k.a. the next Iran?

If the second option happens, shits gonna get even worse in that region.

Its sad that these protests are breaking out all over the Middle East (add Yemen to the list) and the US government is on the wrong side in each situation.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Its sad that these protests are breaking out all over the Middle East (add Yemen to the list) and the US government is on the wrong side in each situation.

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No different from Central America in the Reagan era.

what I find funny is that ALL the low orbiting satellites that carry the internet and cell phone use to Egypt. were put into space by the USA.

Egypt, Tunisia as UCA partners against terrorism.

I guess they were excluded from the dubya neo-cons' plan for democracy and freedom to break out all in Muslim countries after dubya invaded Iraq for oil.

Saudis must be shitting their collective royal pants right about now. If Mubarek falls, they're about the worst/most repressive regime left in the Islam world.

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Originally Posted by Manu'sMagicalLeftHand

Or an alliance between religious leaders and the military a.k.a. the next Iran?

If the second option happens, shits gonna get even worse in that region.

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Why, what's so bad about Iran?

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Originally Posted by Manu'sMagicalLeftHand

Coming from a country with plenty of experience in civil unrest and rioting, all I can say is that the mix of curfews, police beating up rioters and the military in the streets means sooner or later the end is near for the current goverment. From what I've seen and read, Mubarak changing his gabinet isn't enough. The protesters are asking for real change in the institutions.

The problem is what comes after. There will be many forces trying to take over the power vacuums that all that rioting creates. A transition into a secular, moderate goverment and democracy? Or an alliance between religious leaders and the military a.k.a. the next Iran?

If the second option happens, shits gonna get even worse in that region.

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There will be no government with strong religious ties. These people are are protesting are mostly young adults who are leftist leaning. A religious government will only create a much bloodier revolution.

I have heard that there is a top-ranking Egyptian military official that has been in Washington DC all week. Possibly even prior to the major uprising.

Also, supposedly wikileaks shows evidence of US interaction and support of the organization that actually started the protests in Egypt.

Perhaps the US being 'flatfooted' in this situation is by design....


Stratfor seems to think that this is not anything more than a changing of the guard in the military. The military still has a stranglehold on the country and the powers-that-be in the military were simply not down with Mubarak anointing his son the successor.
Which I can see working out for Egypt for the short term, seeing as how the protests have been reported as being so personally directed towards Mubarak.

BREAKING: Cairo Is Falling

Reports emerging from Cairo, Egypt, make clear a Mubarak regime in downfall. Apparently the airport in Cairo is jammed, and Mubarak family members are reported to have arrived in London.

The pattern for Egyptian Army units has been one of peacemakers and non-opposition to the protesters. The Egyptian Army appears neutral, but unwilling to crush government opposition.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is reported to have named as first-ever vice president, his intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. Suleiman appears positioned for a bid as successor to Mubarak. Whether or not such a succession would be viable in light of opposition developments is unclear. Observers speculate that Suleiman may conversely be focused on preserving the Mubarak regime's control even if Mubarak himself flees.

Multiple reports of government-loyal family members fleeing Egypt for safe havens in Europe and the Middle East paint a portrait of a regime in its last throes.

http://readersupportednews.org/news-...iro-is-falling

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Much like his American counterparts, the oligarchic kleptocrat gets away with his ripped off $Bs, much of it US taxpayer $, to live out his life in heavily armed luxury.

Please list there the "democracy loving" Repugs and neo-cons who said Love, Peace, Happiness Democracy would flower in the Arab world after the US established democracy in Iraq AND who are now completely against the overthrow of Mubarak non-democracy:

1. John Bolton
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/29/...ocracy-bolton/

2. McCotter
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/29/...t-stand-egypt/

3. etc, etc.

Now list the Repugs and neo-cons who, before Mubarak fell, were publicly for his downfall. (there may be a couple Repug/neo-con band wagoners, but most will remain silent)

1.

2.

3.

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Paraphrasing imperialist Lord Palmerston: "countries don't have friends, only interests"

and the interest of America is not democracy (Just Another Big Lie Americans tell themselves), but in making the world safe, compliant, even subservient, enslaved to America's money and corporations. Mubarak's Egypt was a huge 30-year market for MIC's goods.

So, bets on Egypt's transition to a theocracy?

Call it 50/50? 60/40 for? 30/70 against?

Unlikely. Why would you expect them to transition to a theocracy other than the fact that the population is mostly Muslim?

Like with the US/UK/CIA compromising a corrupt/autocratic Iran under the Shah, the US supporting Murbarak for decades assures that if a real people's govt takes over, theocratic or secular, it won't be friendly to US.

I envision a future for the U.S. much like Egypt's present - except that by then not enough of our citizens will have the brains or the balls to stand up and fight like the Egyptians are now.

The Egyptian people could apply the rule:

"the friend (USA) of our enemy (Barak regime) is our enemy".

Oil prices up, stock prices down, what about Suez Canal fees up? 1956 All Over Again?

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/242670/thu...LISH-large.jpg

Al Jazeera English Blacked Out Across Most Of U.S.

That corporate censorship comes as American diplomats harshly criticize the Egyptian government for blocking Internet communication inside the country and as Egypt attempts to block Al Jazeera from broadcasting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0...tml?view=print

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UCA always gets what it wants.

Meh, its not blacked out its just not carried. You can watch the live feed online.

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Originally Posted by DarkReign

So, bets on Egypt's transition to a theocracy?

Call it 50/50? 60/40 for? 30/70 against?

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Depends on how one defines theocracy.

I will bet against.

Certain islamist leanings, and that will certainly factor into the way things will shape up, but a straight up theocracy, ala Iran, no.

Likely end up with a change in strongmen, is the most likely out of possible alternatives, followed closely by a weak, corrupt democracy that will get better over time.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Unlikely. Why would you expect them to transition to a theocracy other than the fact that the population is mostly Muslim?

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Meh, its not blacked out its just not carried. You can watch the live feed online.

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irrelevant.

why was AJ taken off most UCA channels?

^^^Message board lifer says the internet is irrelevant.



(spit take)

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

irrelevant.

why was AJ taken off most UCA channels?

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I'm going to guess because its not really an attractive channel for most people. CNN etc don't even do all that well here so I would not expect Al Jazera to do well enough to be included.

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

irrelevant.

why was AJ taken off most UCA channels?

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UCA channels?

Considering many Americans still think of AJ as a jihad-friendly TV network, it is doubtful that it would generate either the ratings or advertising revenue to stay afloat very long in the US.

Cable companies aren't charity organizations.

United Corporations of America, I think. We're all supposed to know he means the USA when he says that.

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

irrelevant.

why was AJ taken off most UCA channels?

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lol..it would have to be on the channel before it can be taken off. :lmao

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

United Corporations of America, I think. We're all supposed to know he means the USA when he says that.

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I need a bouton's Schticktionary to keep up with his rants.:lol

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Unlikely. Why would you expect them to transition to a theocracy other than the fact that the population is mostly Muslim?

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Like you said, mostly Muslim population, but more importantly the power vacuum needing to be filled. Does Egypt have a properly organized minority party to fill that void? I dont know, serious question.

Organization is of utmost importance as the soon-to-be-former president trots through the last steps of his very long waltz.

Seeing as the autocrat has been in power for 30+ years and the dissenters specifically chanted the president's name for ouster along with the Interior Minister (?) for the brutal methods employed by the administration to quell political movements, I'd fancy a guess that there is no organized political party to take the reins of power after his ouster.

Again, I dont know that to be the case, but look at Iraq's shit storm once a brutal dictator like Sadaam was removed. Granted, Iraq has a very proportionate number of minorities that all despise one another for whatever reasons, but I dont think Egypt is some homogeneous society of like minded individuals ready to unite under one common banner, is all.

To me, organization is the first trick in the hat to grab for power in this situation. 30 years under the current regime makes me think that the level of organization required isnt there for Egypt's minority political party/parties.

Yet you cant throw a stone without hitting an imam networked into the largest conglomeration of money and power in the Arab world neatly organized in a big handbook conveniently interpreted by the venerated.

Just a guess.

There is an opposition group, DW. Actually I think there is more than one but I'm not very well versed on Egyptian politics. I do know, however, that it is not Iran and the likelyhood of a theocratic is not likely.

Much as there are a lot of Christian elements in our government, there will be Islamic influence over theirs. But thats in no way theocracy.

A power vacuum leading to another autocracy wouldn't necessarily lead to theocracy, either. Iraq was anything but a theocracy. The power vacuum can lead to government forms outside of democracy, but a theocracy requires that the vacuum be filled by a group that is essentially a church or primarily fundamentalist. I don't see anyone like that in Egypt that is any position to take power.

"a theocracy requires that the vacuum be filled by a group that is essentially a church or primarily fundamentalist."

and totally authoritarian, like the Catholic Church or Iran.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

I'm not very well versed on Egyptian politics.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

I don't see anyone like that in Egypt that is any position to take power.

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:lol

Why don't you just follow the lead of those who are versed on Egyptian politics and just say you don't know what is going to happen.

They got the memo. Hitler=evil.

http://img.rtvslo.si/_up/upload/2011...t-_0131_11.jpg

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Originally Posted by xeromass

They got the memo. Hitler=evil.

http://img.rtvslo.si/_up/upload/2011...t-_0131_11.jpg

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Must be a Tea Party member.

Some analysts believe the 83-year-old dictator, with his back against the wall, ordered all police forces out of the main cities to undermine the momentum of anti-regime demonstrations. With no police opposition, the euphoric protesters soon dispersed as a shocking rise in crime made security their foremost concern.

"The security vacuum serves Mubarak’s interest as people want to see a quick end to the situation and want law and order restored," explains Moustafa Kamel El-Sayed, professor of political science at Cairo University.

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/149738

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

:lol

Why don't you just follow the lead of those who are versed on Egyptian politics and just say you don't know what is going to happen.

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Because I want to give my baseless and meaningless opinion! :depressed

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Because I want to give my baseless and meaningless opinion! :depressed

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What are rambling about? Im changing the world here.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Because I want to give my baseless and meaningless opinion! :depressed

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Don't feel bad. Glenn Beck just came on and he started with "It's important to understand what's going on in Egypt, maybe I'm wrong but....". So you're in good company.

Damn you couldn't just dig the knife in but you had to twist that bitch by comparing me to Glen Beck?

thats the ultimate insult. get off the canvas, manny.

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Originally Posted by xeromass

They got the memo. Hitler=evil.

http://img.rtvslo.si/_up/upload/2011...t-_0131_11.jpg

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Germany is always so far ahead of the US in style and what's in. They had a form of the emo flop and attitude in the 30's and 40's. U.S. just started this mainstream in the late 90's.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Damn you couldn't just dig the knife in but you had to twist that bitch by comparing me to Glen Beck?

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:lol

Tbh, you didn't try to drag Van Jones into what's happening in Egypt so it wasn't really a fair comparison.

apparently he's calling off police in major cities so crime can ravage everything. doesnt look very good at all.


what a POS if that is true

F.A.Q. on U.S. Aid to Egypt: Where Does the Money Go—And Who Decides How It’s Spent?

Egypt gets the most U.S. foreign aid of any country except for Israel. (This doesn't include [2] the money spent on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.) The amount varies each year and there are many different funding streams, but U.S. foreign assistance to Egypt has averaged just over $2 billion every year since 1979,

According to the State Department, U.S. military aid to Egypt totals over $1.3 billion annually [5] in a stream of funding known as Foreign Military Financing.

that equipment has included [5] fighter jets, tanks, armored personnel carriers, Apache helicopters, anti-aircraft missile batteries and aerial surveillance aircraft.

Egypt can purchase this equipment either through the U.S. military or directly from U.S. defense contractors, and it can do so on credit.

The other group that benefits from this aid arrangement is U.S. defense contractors [11]. As we reported with Sunlight Foundation, contractors including BAE Systems, General Dynamics, General Electric, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have all done business [12] with the Egyptian government through relationships facilitated by high-powered DC lobbyists.

Funding for programs that promote democracy and good governance through direct funding to NGOs in Egypt averaged about $24 million from fiscal year 1999 to 2009. But these, too, had “limited impact,” due to “a lack of Egyptian government cooperation [16],” :lol :lol

http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/...ides-how-spent

I'd guess the military will take over and tell Mubarak to step down and leave. The military has had a hand in the past 2 or 3 presidential changeovers. Gamal Nasser and the military pretty much took over the country and put King Farouk on his yacht and sent him off, and then of course the assassination of Sadat by members of the military (even though it was just a small group associated with al-Jihad).

The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest opposition organization in Egypt even though they were banned and outlawed by Nasser, they just run under other political ideologies.

I think the US has worried too much about Muslim taking over Egypt. It could work.

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/...hn_Bolton1.jpg

Bolton: Mubarak’s Downfall Would Mean We Need To Bomb Iran Sooner

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/01/bolton-egypt-iran/

:lol :lol :lol

Great article on huffpo


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/qanta-..._b_816706.html

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Originally Posted by DarkReign

Like you said, mostly Muslim population, but more importantly the power vacuum needing to be filled. Does Egypt have a properly organized minority party to fill that void? I dont know, serious question.

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No, no it does not. Opposition parties have been universally banned, jailed, and cheated out of representation.

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Originally Posted by DarkReign

Organization is of utmost importance as the soon-to-be-former president trots through the last steps of his very long waltz.

Seeing as the autocrat has been in power for 30+ years and the dissenters specifically chanted the president's name for ouster along with the Interior Minister (?) for the brutal methods employed by the administration to quell political movements, I'd fancy a guess that there is no organized political party to take the reins of power after his ouster.

Again, I dont know that to be the case, but look at Iraq's shit storm once a brutal dictator like Sadaam was removed. Granted, Iraq has a very proportionate number of minorities that all despise one another for whatever reasons, but I dont think Egypt is some homogeneous society of like minded individuals ready to unite under one common banner, is all.

To me, organization is the first trick in the hat to grab for power in this situation. 30 years under the current regime makes me think that the level of organization required isnt there for Egypt's minority political party/parties.

Yet you cant throw a stone without hitting an imam networked into the largest conglomeration of money and power in the Arab world neatly organized in a big handbook conveniently interpreted by the venerated.

Just a guess.

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Probably a correct one, from what I have been reading.

Egypt, like Iraq, faces rampant official corruption at all levels as the result of dictatorships, and that really puts a damper on economic growth, which is *the* main driver here. Freedom, shmeedom. The population is young and jobless, with more than 60% of the population under 30, and 25-50% unemployment rates.

If they had jobs, they wouldn't be out protesting. :lol

Dubya Pravda News Flash: Egypt Proves Dubya Was Right

(aka, using a blanket of Pravda-worthy revisionist lies to try to cover dubya's pile of shit)

Media Enable Former Bushies To Rewrite History On Bush Egypt and "Freedom In The Arab World"

the Bush administration did not target Egypt as part of its so-called Middle East "freedom agenda," but rather, they relied on Egypt to help them to implement it. Despite the occasional criticism of Murabak's suppression of political opposition, they by no means held Egypt up as an "Arab" "dictatorship" that needed to forge the path to democracy. Indeed, the Bush administration far more consistently pointed to Egypt as the potential Middle Eastern model of democracy.

http://www.truth-out.org/print/67337

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/...hn_Bolton1.jpg

Bolton: Mubarak’s Downfall Would Mean We Need To Bomb Iran Sooner

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/01/bolton-egypt-iran/

:lol :lol :lol

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:lol Bolton.

What a maroon. He's like the embarassing uncle at family gatherings that won't stop talking to himself, and will tell you all about how the Chinese are going to invade Panama.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/243175/thu...T-large570.jpg

New Jordan Government: King Abdullah II Dismisses Government

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0...tml?view=print

China seeing the possibilities.

#Egypt Blocked in China

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/egy...46?tag=nl.e539

The men of Qasr el-Aini Street

A quick primer on current understanding of the Muslim Brotherhood, fwiw.

The foreign policy journal, unsurprisingly, has a lot of good material if anyone wants to read up.

One can find the deluded take of Iran's current leaders who see Tunisia/Egypt as a remake of their 1979 revolution to overthrow "US imperialism", rather than the 2009 Green Revolution. They seem to seriously think that their crushing of the Green Revolution was simply another "US plot" foiled by diligent security forces.

Reading this when I get home.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/...hn_Bolton1.jpg

Bolton: Mubarak’s Downfall Would Mean We Need To Bomb Iran Sooner

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/01/bolton-egypt-iran/

:lol :lol :lol

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:lol Bolton is so predictable. Next headline will be something like "My kid ate Cheerios with sugar today, it means we must bomb Iran! YEARGH!"

LOLOLOLOL World Police

Feels good pissing away billions to fund Muslim Brochachos with a nice army. Can't wait to vote in the next idiot Rep/Dem and do it again! :downspin:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/...hn_Bolton1.jpg

Bolton: Mubarak’s Downfall Would Mean We Need To Bomb Iran Sooner

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/01/bolton-egypt-iran/

:lol :lol :lol

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Wants to be president, of course.

the iranian revolution against the shah was a mostly secular movement as well. the protesters gained the support of the islamic clerics but it was mostly an uprising by students and middle class iranians. when iran wrote its new constitution, the clerics surprised most of the iranian revolutionaries by staging a small coup and turning iran into a theocracy with khomeini at the top. while the muslim brotherhood do not enjoy the same religious legitimacy as the iranian ayatollahs, there is still a risk of some a secondary coup that would strengthen the brotherhood's influence in egyptian politics. however, egpyt had always been more of a nationalist state. the opposition leaders are more socialist and nationalist than religious. i doubt the egyptians would allow a theocracy to rise.

most likely scenario would be an interim government composed of the current vice president and senior military officers with eventual elections that carry the socialists into power. the ruling coalition will be more anti-american and anti-israel but would also not ally itself to extreme religious groups. the muslim brotherhood would be finally free to operate without looking over the shoulders and maybe form some kind of deal with the ruling coalition.

a worst case scenario would be a fractured nation trying to create a democracy that just won't work. there will be too much infighting, corruption, and broken alliances that the military will have to step in and rule the country for a while. or the muslim brotherhood rapidly regains its influence and seizes the opportunity to grab power. highly unlikely though because the base of power in egypt has always been the military and the military seems to be tacitly supporting the secular protesters. if another dictatorship is to arise from all this then it would be on of military rule.

in any case, the US and israel need to prepare for a less friendly egypt.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

Wants to be president, of course.

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Better shave the 'stache then. Quick, who was the last President with a 'stache elected?

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Originally Posted by LnGrrrR

Better shave the 'stache then. Quick, who was the last President with a 'stache elected?

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Why, Thomas Dewey of course.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

Why, Thomas Dewey of course.

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Pshaw. Almost-presidents don't count. :lol

Ha! Proving that every original thought was already thought by someone else on the internet...

http://www.good.is/post/can-a-man-wi...-be-president/

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Originally Posted by LnGrrrR

Better shave the 'stache then. Quick, who was the last President with a 'stache elected?

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Was it Teddy Roosevelt?

Close.

taft?

Shits really getting crazy today.

Syria and Jordan autocrats are frantically finagling to keep their day jobs.

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Shits really getting crazy today.

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Come on, Manny, Repug/conservatives have been batshit crazy for decades.

It's going to get worse, unstoppably.

98% of America is fucked by the vampire-squid VRWC, like it was in the 1920s and Robber Baron era, and it's unfuckable.

Too much money and power in too many sinister hands that control government.

"Mubarak’s regime has received roughly $2 billion per year since coming to power, overwhelmingly for the military.

Where has the money gone? Mostly to U.S. corporations. I asked William Hartung of the New America Foundation to explain:

“It’s a form of corporate welfare for companies like Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, because it goes to Egypt, then it comes back for F-16 aircraft, for M-1 tanks, for aircraft engines, for all kinds of missiles, for guns, for tear-gas canisters [from] a company called Combined Systems International, which actually has its name on the side of the canisters that have been found on the streets there.”

Hartung just published a book, “Prophets of War: Lockheed Martin and the Making of the Military-Industrial Complex.” He went on: “Lockheed Martin has been the leader in deals worth $3.8 billion over that period of the last 10 years; General Dynamics, $2.5 billion for tanks; Boeing, $1.7 billion for missiles, for helicopters; Raytheon for all manner of missiles for the armed forces. So, basically, this is a key element in propping up the regime, but a lot of the money is basically recycled. Taxpayers could just as easily be giving it directly to Lockheed Martin or General Dynamics.”"

http://www.truthdig.com/report/print...racy_20110201/

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In fact, the American Empire is really just the VRWC, MIC division, sucking US taxpayer pockets dry while burdening US citizens with $Ts in debt. Guess to whom the US pays the $B100s in national debt interest? yep, capitalists who had enough capital to buy US bonds.

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Originally Posted by Yonivore

Syria and Jordan autocrats are frantically finagling to keep their day jobs.

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The same autocrats endlessly supported by our government?

The US loves their dictators because they keep shit "stable" and it doesn't care if it comes at the expense of other peoples freedoms and then the people in this country wonder why shit happens here directed by groups from that general area.

:sleep

They hate our freedoms
-George Bush future Mt Rushmore President

No, they hate us because they're NOT free and we have a hand in that.

From Al Jazera's live blog:

3:22pm Protesters in Tahrir Square shows the Al Jazeera camera the ID cards of accused plain clothed security (police ID) who came in earlier to create chaos.

Shocking that the violence is being caused by government operatives.

The Google response to all of this has been pretty amazing. Their Speak to Tweet service is awesome.

http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/egypt.html