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$7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
http://www.smartplanet.com/technolog...reak-even/205/
Quote:
While there are plenty of environmental (and political) reasons to buy a hybrid car, money isn’t one of them — at least for now.
According to a study from Cargurus.com, gas prices would have to reach about $7 in order for some hybrids to break even in terms of expense as compared to their non-hybrid cousins.
The website analyzed 43 hybrids from 2003 to 2010 and found that on average most hybrids cost 17 percent — about $6,400 — more than their gasoline-powered counterparts.
That said, with gas prices increasing the way they are currently, investing in a Toyota Camry Hybrid or a Ford Escape Hybrid would actually be the most cost-efficient thing to do in the long run.
The Toyota Camry Hybrid would need gas to rise to about $4 a gallon — which it’s already at in some parts of the country — to break even. The Ford Escape Hybrid showed a break even point of $2.50 per gallon.
Currently the Camry hybrid costs about $3,300 more than the non-hybrid version, while the Ford Escape Hybrid is $3,500 more than the conventional model.
On the other hand, gas would have to cost $15 per gallon for the cost of a Cadillac Escalade Hybrid to break even.
Curiously, the Prius was not included in this study because it doesn’t have a gas-powered equivalent.
While cost is something that always comes up when there is a discussion about hybrids and electric vehicles, it is important to note that at a time of increased political and environmental uncertainty, fuel-efficient cars have plenty of advantages over their gasoline-powered counterparts, beyond just price. They produce less emissions (for the same distance traveled) and they help cut our dependence on foreign oil (eventually allowing us to become energy-independent as a country).
As U.S. president Barack Obama said at a press conference last week, “We’ve got to make our economy more energy-efficient and energy-independent over the long run.”
Update: The total cost of ownership for the hybrid and non-hybrid models was compared for each vehicle to determine the total cost of ownership premium for hybrids. This total cost of ownership included the initial purchase price, lost value in terms of depreciation and total gas costs over the time period analyzed.
Via Detroit Free Press
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
*waits for the pro-republican spin*
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
What about it Darrin? Do you have a personal take on the article?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
So one hybrid is already "worth it" and another is a few cents away from being "worth it."
Thanks, Darrin, for running away from this so quickly.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
I wish the article said what kind of timeframe got assumed for the analysis, or at least gave a years to break even point using today's gas prices. Without that it's hard to know how much value to put in these numbers.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Agreed. Plus things like costs of the vehicles/batteries are not necessarily constant either...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
The numbers just do not add up the way they have them presented unless a person only keeps a car for a short time.
For example, it says the Camry hybrid costs $3300 more and then claims gas would have to be $4 per gallon to break even. That means that over the life of the car, the person would only be buying about 825 fewer gallons of gas. I buy about 50 gallons per month, or 600 gallons per year. My use would be say 2/3 of this with a hybrid- or 400 gallons per year. Saving on 200 gallons per year at $4 per gallon, I break even at just past the 4 year mark. I keep cars much longer than that.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ploto
The numbers just do not add up the way they have them presented unless a person only keeps a car for a short time.
For example, it says the Camry hybrid costs $3300 more and then claims gas would have to be $4 per gallon to break even. That means that over the life of the car, the person would only be buying about 825 fewer gallons of gas. I buy about 50 gallons per month, or 600 gallons per year. My use would be say 2/3 of this with a hybrid- or 400 gallons per year. Saving on 200 gallons per year at $4 per gallon, I break even at just past the 4 year mark. I keep cars much longer than that.
It might also be factoring the cost of electricity required to charge the vehicles (when plugged in)...
i.e. Lower operating gasoline budget but higher electric bill...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Maybe it's just me, but why would consumers worry about the "average" price of a hybrid?
If you have 30 hybrid models and 28 of them are $70,000 or more, but the remaining 2 are competitively priced, do you really care about those other models or their influence on the mean price? You still have two viable options for hybrids that don't cost appreciably more than their ICE-only counterparts.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ploto
The numbers just do not add up the way they have them presented unless a person only keeps a car for a short time.
For example, it says the Camry hybrid costs $3300 more and then claims gas would have to be $4 per gallon to break even. That means that over the life of the car, the person would only be buying about 825 fewer gallons of gas. I buy about 50 gallons per month, or 600 gallons per year. My use would be say 2/3 of this with a hybrid- or 400 gallons per year. Saving on 200 gallons per year at $4 per gallon, I break even at just past the 4 year mark. I keep cars much longer than that.
The lithium batteries may not last that long, $5K to replace, totally wiping out even best-case savings. Early adopter Prius buyers have already been whacked.
And try to sell a 3-year-old hybrid with dead battery replacement looming in less that 3 years.
4-cyl diesel gets better mileage and longer range than hybrids. Check out drivers' reports on VW Jetta diesel for the last several years.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
What about it Darrin? Do you have a personal take on the article?
I think hybrid vehicles are one of the few technologies where an inferior product actually costs more.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Did you even read this before you posted it?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
boutons_deux
4-cyl diesel gets better mileage and longer range than hybrids. Check out drivers' reports on VW Jetta diesel for the last several years.
Hybrids are for fools, clean diesel is the future. Hopefully our govt will pull it's head out of it's ass and make it happen sooner rather than later.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SnakeBoy
Hybrids are for fools, clean diesel is the future. Hopefully our govt will pull it's head out of it's ass and make it happen sooner rather than later.
Purely electric cars are the future.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Purely electric cars are the future.
Yeah that's what I keep hearing for the last 30 years. What kind of purely electric car do you recommend I go out and buy?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
We're a lot closer today than we were 30 years ago. 30 years ago we didn't have a Volt or all of these hybrids. 30 years ago we didn't have the technology we have today and 30 years ago we didn't have the oil situation we have today and we certainly didn't have 4 dollar gasoline 30 years ago.
10-15 years from now will almost certainly see purely electric cars on the market - especially with improvements in solar cells.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
"Hopefully our govt will pull it's head out of it's ass"
huh? don't you hate govt? expect nothing good from it?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
The govt tax policy to encourage a switch to diesel is a high tax on gasoline, so diesel is cheaper per gallon (as well as getting better mileage).
Of course, the Europeans and Japs are way ahead of the UCA on diesel tech, because those countries' govts encouraged by tax policy switching to diesel a long time ago, and the car companies research came up with small, quiet, efficient, clean burning diesel.
The UCA does what's best for corps (don't switch to diesel, keep using/wasting lots of oil for increasingly expensive(windfall profitable), dead-end gasoline) rather than what's best for the country (reduce oil imports by reducing fuel usage).
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Shit. I'm going to have to trade in my diesel before the VRWC finds out I have one.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
MB is marked man. The VRWC knows where you live.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
boutons_deux
The lithium batteries may not last that long, $5K to replace, totally wiping out even best-case savings.
The article claimed they based their calculations on the cost of the vehicle, the price of gas, and depreciation, so that is how I calculated my numbers without knowing depreciation comparisons.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
I really liked the South Park Prius episode ….
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Phenomanul
It might also be factoring the cost of electricity required to charge the vehicles (when plugged in)...
i.e. Lower operating gasoline budget but higher electric bill...
This article is about Hybrids, not Plug in EVs
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
i think the purpose is to cut back on oil.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ploto
The numbers just do not add up the way they have them presented unless a person only keeps a car for a short time.
For example, it says the Camry hybrid costs $3300 more and then claims gas would have to be $4 per gallon to break even. That means that over the life of the car, the person would only be buying about 825 fewer gallons of gas. I buy about 50 gallons per month, or 600 gallons per year. My use would be say 2/3 of this with a hybrid- or 400 gallons per year. Saving on 200 gallons per year at $4 per gallon, I break even at just past the 4 year mark. I keep cars much longer than that.
Except by 4 years, the battery efficiency will be degraded and the numbers will change.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
We're a lot closer today than we were 30 years ago. 30 years ago we didn't have a Volt or all of these hybrids. 30 years ago we didn't have the technology we have today and 30 years ago we didn't have the oil situation we have today and we certainly didn't have 4 dollar gasoline 30 years ago.
10-15 years from now will almost certainly see purely electric cars on the market - especially with improvements in solar cells.
No way you can stack enough solar cells on a car to power it. The physics don't work. If there was that much energy in that square footage it would cook us like a steak when we walked outside.
That being said, I can see electric cars being the norm with a constant rpm diesel turbine/generator as a backup to keep the batteries charged.
Electric cars are cool. I've got four golf carts at the ranchito now. There are weekends that I park my truck when I get there and never move it until I leave.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
CNG seems to be the logical answer. Cleaner combustion, can be converted from existing engines, and is plentiful. Oh, and the infrastructure exists to have it distributed EVEN in one's home...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
No way you can stack enough solar cells on a car to power it. The physics don't work. If there was that much energy in that square footage it would cook us like a steak when we walked outside.
No offense, but I'm sure at one point they thought it would be impossible to make a huge variety of things that now exist in abundance today. Can you imagine explaining a microprocessor to a computer scientist in the 1950s? He would likely tell you the same thing.
Saying that something, "Just can't work" usually only looks at the current situation and discounts any potential scientific breakthroughs down the road that can completely revolutionize an industry.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
"CNG seems to be the logical answer. Cleaner combustion, can be converted from existing engines, and is plentiful."
Nope, just cost-shifting. Extractors shift the external cost of poisoned ground and surface water, poisoned earth to water consumers. Nothing clean about fracking.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cry Havoc
No offense, but I'm sure at one point they thought it would be impossible to make a huge variety of things that now exist in abundance today. Can you imagine explaining a microprocessor to a computer scientist in the 1950s? He would likely tell you the same thing.
Saying that something, "Just can't work" usually only looks at the current situation and discounts any potential scientific breakthroughs down the road that can completely revolutionize an industry.
The physics don't work. Period. There are some things that are just universal truths. Moving X amount of pounds Y distance at Z speed requires a certain minimum amount of energy input. Sunlight won't cut it.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Obviously it doesn't need to power the car entirely. That being said, supplemental power from solar on a car would be a good thing.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
The physics don't work. Period. There are some things that are just universal truths. Moving X amount of pounds Y distance at Z speed requires a certain minimum amount of energy input. Sunlight won't cut it.
Maybe not ONLY PV, but perhaps a system which captures electricity using PV, as well as the heat energy. Also the electricity produced in the braking system (like the hybrids). Combine that with lighter materials used in making a car and I think it would eventually be possible. Plus you could have a battery pack somewhere in there to compensate for cloudy days.
(BTW, I am no scientist, so I don't have a procedure for how you would be able to capture and use the heat energy. It just seems that as we get better and better at extracting energy, that we will start expanding the types of energy we can capture and use)
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
boutons_deux
"Hopefully our govt will pull it's head out of it's ass"
huh? don't you hate govt? expect nothing good from it?
I've never said I hate government even though you like to view everyone who isn't a progressive raving lunatic as the same. It is however govt. policy that is preventing diesel from dominating the US market.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Purely electric cars are the future.
Hopefully, you won't have to drive across the desert in one.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Obviously it doesn't need to power the car entirely. That being said, supplemental power from solar on a car would be a good thing.
How much power do you think you can get from PV the size of a typical car roof?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SnakeBoy
I've never said I hate government even though you like to view everyone who isn't a progressive raving lunatic as the same. It is however govt. policy that is preventing diesel from dominating the US market.
Yep. During the 90s the Clinton administration and the EPA (both noted VRWC advocates) were pretty much on an anti-diesel crusade.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
Hopefully, you won't have to drive across the desert in one.
why would it be worse than driving a gas car across the desert?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blake
why would it be worse than driving a gas car across the desert?
range
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Obviously it doesn't need to power the car entirely. That being said, supplemental power from solar on a car would be a good thing.
Try doing the power calculations sometime. The solar energy hitting the profile of a car is a very small percentage of the power required for transportation.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
range
I just read that the British Vauxhall has a 300 mile range.
Not as good as gas, but it's getting there.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blake
I just read that the British Vauxhall has a 300 mile range.
Not as good as gas, but it's getting there.
As far as I know, the Vauxhall Ampera is a Volt!
wiki: Volt:
Also called:
Holden Volt
Opel Ampera
Vauxhall Ampera
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Purely electric cars are the future.
The future is finding the catalyst so you can burn hydrogen in the atmosphere without producing nitrates. Electric is not economical because storage sucks. Now that nanotube weaves can hold hydrogen in storage , that is no longer a hurdle.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blake
I just read that the British Vauxhall has a 300 mile range.
Not as good as gas, but it's getting there.
Did you guys read anything back during the cold weather about the Volts up north? They were getting about 20 miles on a charge when it was below freezing.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Did you guys read anything back during the cold weather about the Volts up north? They were getting about 20 miles on a charge when it was below freezing.
LOL....
I completely forgot about battery efficiency and temperature...
LOL...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Volt Range Shrinks in Cold Weather
By Julie Wernau
Chicago Tribune
CHICAGO — It's a tough week to be the guy who led development of the Chevy Volt's battery. Consumer Reports said its tests showed the battery's range at a paltry 23 to 28 miles in cold weather, far below the 40 miles originally promised.
"The financial payback is not there," said Jake Fisher, a senior automotive engineer at Consumer Reports Auto Test Center.
A hybrid, he said in an interview, would make more sense. (The Volt — which runs as a fully electric plug-in vehicle and switches to gasoline power once that battery is depleted — cost Consumer Reports $48,000 at a dealership before a $7,500 federal tax credit. Toyota's Prius is about half that price.)
Then, Ford Motor Co. seized on the negative press for the Volt by issuing its own news release: "Weather Climates No Problem for Ford Focus Electric's Liquid-Heated Battery System."
But Bill Wallace, director of global battery systems for GM, didn't flinch.
"It turns out batteries are like people: They love room temperature," Wallace said Thursday at an energy forum at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
"Nobody — Ford, Nissan or anybody — has anything better," he said. "
Consumer Reports concludes the Volt is an expensive way to go green.
Read more: ABQJOURNAL BIZ: Volt Range Shrinks in Cold Weather http://www.abqjournal.com/biz/052256...#ixzz1HSXbUqiD
Subscribe Now Albuquerque Journal
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Would ultra-capacitors be immune to the effect of temperature? I only ask because I saw an article that said that the president of tesla stated that ultra-capacitors, not more efficient batteries are the future of electric cars.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Did you guys read anything back during the cold weather about the Volts up north? They were getting about 20 miles on a charge when it was below freezing.
Huh, that's interesting.
Have you read anything on how far a Volt can go in a desert by any chance?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blake
Huh, that's interesting.
Have you read anything on how far a Volt can go in a desert by any chance?
I have no idea. Why don't you go buy one for $48,000 and find out?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
boutons_deux
The lithium batteries may not last that long, $5K to replace, totally wiping out even best-case savings. Early adopter Prius buyers have already been whacked.
And try to sell a 3-year-old hybrid with dead battery replacement looming in less that 3 years.
4-cyl diesel gets better mileage and longer range than hybrids. Check out drivers' reports on VW Jetta diesel for the last several years.
The vast majority of hybrids use NiMH (the Prius definitely does), IIRC, so longevity of the battery is not that much of a concern. Most of them also come with 6/8 years warranty included on the battery (I think the Volt is 8, Prius 6).
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FuzzyLumpkins
The future is finding the catalyst so you can burn hydrogen in the atmosphere without producing nitrates. Electric is not economical because storage sucks. Now that nanotube weaves can hold hydrogen in storage , that is no longer a hurdle.
The problem with hydrogen is that it's expensive to produce and the infrastructure to support it would be also be expensive when compared to electricity, IIRC.
I think advanced development in batteries is probably where the money is going to go, seeing that you can deploy and test that more rapidly on a plethora of devices. There has been some advances in nanotubes recently on the battery side also that look promising. We're in the middle of a revolution with all that.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Did you guys read anything back during the cold weather about the Volts up north? They were getting about 20 miles on a charge when it was below freezing.
This is a problem with gasoline vehicles too though... Block heaters have been used forever to get the car warm in places with cold weather. I remember my sister having to plug her gas car overnight.
The second generation Prius actually innovated on this by pumping hot coolant into insulated thermos when you shutdown the car. The coolant remains hot for up to 3 days.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Purely electric cars are the future.
I agree, but future is the keyword. The battery tech is not quite there yet, even though it has improved tremendously lately.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
The physics don't work. Period. There are some things that are just universal truths. Moving X amount of pounds Y distance at Z speed requires a certain minimum amount of energy input. Sunlight won't cut it.
Fortunately there are many more wavelengths in the EM spectrum than just visible light. I think we might see more success in the future by collecting more energetic frequencies.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Agloco
Fortunately there are many more wavelengths in the EM spectrum than just visible light. I think we might see more success in the future by collecting more energetic frequencies.
C'mon dude...are you REALLY trying to convince me that a solar collector on the roof of a car (even if it collected 100% of the potential energy of the entire spectrum) is going to provide enough energy to power the car?
Look, I'm a big advocate of solar energy in the proper applications but thats a square peg you are trying to pound into that round hole...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Nice family photo Cosmic...That 1st horse looks tall...How many hands?
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/imag...ine=1300821983
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sportcamper
He's not super tall...mid 15's...just real stocky and athletic...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
C'mon dude...are you REALLY trying to convince me that a solar collector on the roof of a car (even if it collected 100% of the potential energy of the entire spectrum) is going to provide enough energy to power the car?
Look, I'm a big advocate of solar energy in the proper applications but thats a square peg you are trying to pound into that round hole...
BTW, thats the problem with all of the renewables as it applies to personal transportation...none of them are really portable except for biofuels.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
He's not super tall...mid 15's...just real stocky and athletic...
An equine Dejuan Blair if you will. :)
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
coyotes_geek
An equine Dejuan Blair if you will. :)
No Blair is fat...:lol
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
coyotes_geek
An equine Dejuan Blair if you will. :)
:lol
Good description!
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Drachen
Would ultra-capacitors be immune to the effect of temperature? I only ask because I saw an article that said that the president of tesla stated that ultra-capacitors, not more efficient batteries are the future of electric cars.
They probably have similar thermal coefficients.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Somebody needs to invent a solar-absorbing paint... :p:
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
I have no idea. Why don't you go buy one for $48,000 and find out?
I don't care about it that much.
You were giving out the other info for free, just thought I'd ask.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
I'm not sure that a person who is going to spend $50-$75K for a car just because it gets close to 50MPG is worried about overall costs savings, of course, don't tell conscienceless wing-nuts that or their heads are likely to explode....
...for the avg consumer, a Honda or Hyndai which get about 40MPG, but costs between 20-28K, are much more financially sensible....
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...ebruary/71963/
Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf Show Lackluster Sales in February
Quote:
Autoblog reports that the Chevy Volt sold 281 units in February, down from 321 in February. Meanwhile, sales of the Nissan Leaf dropped from 87 to 67. The trend seems pretty dismal:
Quote:
. . . here's the big scorecard for all sales of these vehicles thus far:
Volt: 928
Leaf: 173
Ouch.
It's going to take a long time at this rate to hit their sales target. Here's Charles Ghosn, the CEO of Renault, saying that he's going to sell 500,000 electric cars a year by 2013:
Quote:
On the eve of the market debut of the Nissan Leaf electric car, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, said the only constraint on sales for the next three years will be how many battery packs the factories could churn out.
Deliveries of the Leaf are scheduled to start next month. Mr. Ghosn, speaking to reporters in Washington on Monday afternoon, did not say just how many he expected to sell in the first three years. He said, however, that the Leaf would hit 500,000 units a year in three years. Mass production, he explained, would lower costs enough to make the car a sales success without subsidies sooner than once expected. He said he once thought that number was a million cars a year, but now believed it was from 500,000 to 1 million.
173 down, 499,827 to go.
The planning for the Volt has been similarly optimistic flights of fancy:
Quote:
Production of Chevrolet's Volt was supposed to be limited to 10k units this year, a target GM has already set its sights on surpassing. With 2012 volume projections now reaching 25k units, the next step in The General's quest to prove that the Volt is a viable vehicle is a staggering goal: doubling its 2013 production target from 60k to 120k units of production. According to Bloomberg, GM has not officially announced the 120k volume goal and may not build that many Volts in 2013 at all, if energy prices and supplier challenges don't allow it. And though supplier issues could well leave the goal out of reach, even if GM is able to ramp up production to fulfill its 120k unit goal by next year, there are no signs yet that the market will support those production levels. After all, GM is essentially banking on the kind of volume-to-price niche that BMW has taken years to cultivate with its 3 Series... which starts at prices slightly below the Volt's $41k, and still moved fewer than 110k units last year.
As Autoblog says, the question is: "Why?" Is this just the slow ramp-up of new production? Are the dealers falling down on the job? Did weather and the short month keep buyers off the lots? Did we simply need to see higher gas prices to goose demand, meaning that sales will now take off? Or did two major auto manufacturers dump huge sums of money into a technology that is struggling to get its sales volumes into the four figures?
It certainly wouldn't be the first time that companies have made this sort of colossal misjudgment. It wouldn't even be the first time an auto company has done so. (Remember the Edsel)? March and April sales volumes should be telling: gas prices are high, and the Leaf is supposed to hit 4,000 production units this month. If volumes remain low, we may be looking at green elephants.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
Somebody needs to invent a solar-absorbing paint... :p:
I believe this already exists. It is just not yet economical to deploy.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
Somebody needs to invent a solar-absorbing paint... :p:
Already exists. It's called -- black.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
Already exists. It's called -- black.
*rimshot*
I knew that was coming, hence my smiley. Of course, I meant one that can convert said solar energy into a useful form of energy.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
*rimshot*
I knew that was coming, hence my smiley. Of course, I meant one that can convert said solar energy into a useful form of energy.
http://cleantechnica.com/2010/04/10/...er-to-reality/
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
*rimshot*
I knew that was coming, hence my smiley. Of course, I meant one that can convert said solar energy into a useful form of energy.
I guess you could gen enough power to recharge your laptop or phone.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
I guess you could gen enough power to recharge your laptop or phone.
Every little bit could help. But more importantly, it could possibly "charge up" the car while stuck in a parking lot somewhere on a sunny day, extending the possible range/usage.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
*rimshot*
I knew that was coming, hence my smiley. Of course, I meant one that can convert said solar energy into a useful form of energy.
There probably is a way to do that already but I'll bet the conversion to electricity is real low.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wild Cobra
There probably is a way to do that already but I'll bet the conversion to electricity is real low.
Oh yeah, most likely.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
At about a 7% yearly increase in prices, that means we will pass $7/gal in about 8 years.
Given that prices on the hybrids, and their technology efficiencies are getting lower and better respectively, that mark is probably less.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LnGrrrR
Every little bit could help. But more importantly, it could possibly "charge up" the car while stuck in a parking lot somewhere on a sunny day, extending the possible range/usage.
That is one thing about distributed PV systems. It would be another revenue stream for a parking garage.
With efficiency jumps in Photovoltaic and/or wind, that would allow someone to build a multi-level garage, prop some wind/solar on the roof, and offer some way of plugging in to charge up.
Think about any large parking lot for simlar. Throw in some covered parking and put a quickie PV unit on top.
There are a lot of reasons I think that we are on the verge of a real paradigm shift in energy, and the research strongly suggests the costs of PV systems coming down in the near future. The implications are quite profound.
Unless of course one has certain ideological blinders on that filter this information out. Then you will be caught unawares. Those that don't have such mental hobbles will stand to make oodles of cash from this major change.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Imagine all the millions of acres of BigBox chain stores, malls, Wal-Marts covering their roofs and parking lots with solar systems, solar thermal or voltaic. Make a lot more sense than baking the asphalt.
Shielding buildings' roofs from direct sunlight would probably reduce their (sun-belt) a/c bills.
Such green initiatives would probably win their brands good will from intelligent, adult customers ("Wal-Mart People" excluded :) ).
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RandomGuy
At about a 7% yearly increase in prices, that means we will pass $7/gal in about 8 years.
Given that prices on the hybrids, and their technology efficiencies are getting lower and better respectively, that mark is probably less.
I'm sure there's some point where the pain of gas prices will FORCE us to choose a vehicle we ordinarily wouldn't buy, but doesn't that suck?
This country and the automobile go way back. Americans don't want to drive egg-shaped wussmobiles --- unless that have no choice.
I've pretty much already succumed to this. If gas was dirt cheap, there's no doubt I would drive a giant crew cab pickup. I've been driving a fairly fuel efficient sedan for the better part of a decade. <sigh>
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
The physics don't work. Period. There are some things that are just universal truths. Moving X amount of pounds Y distance at Z speed requires a certain minimum amount of energy input. Sunlight won't cut it.
Link?
I say that mostly facetiously, because that strikes me as awfully close to a blanket dismissal of the sort that have a habit of turning out to be proven wrong.
Sunlight is insufficient to power most cars as they are running, that is quite plain.
But when you get a larger area, and a long enough time, you can store a lot of energy to charge batteries and so forth.
It sounds to me like you are buying into Darrin's "density" argument without thinking critically about it first, no offense.
There are some rather promising technologies that offer the potential of tripling the amount of energy stored per unit weight of battery, and that will allow plenty of "density" after you have concentrated a diffuse source like sunlight.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
The ion engines being used in spacecraft are a good example of how the dimension of time has to be considered when thinking about energy.
The ion engines use a very tiny amount of fuel, and give out only a tiny amount of thrust. No one would say they are powerhouses by any stretch. But what makes them useful is the time factor, as you can apply that force over 24/7.
Similarly, a solar panel can only catch a certain amount of energy at any given instant, but when you add up that energy over 8-12 hours of daylight, especially in sunny places, it starts to accumulate, especially when you start talking about large areas.
I just don't buy the "sunlight doesn't cut it" argument at all. It seems to be ignoring both technological progress and likely developments, as well as some more basic concepts like time and area.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
I'm sure there's some point where the pain of gas prices will FORCE us to choose a vehicle we ordinarily wouldn't buy, but doesn't that suck?
This country and the automobile go way back. Americans don't want to drive egg-shaped wussmobiles --- unless that have no choice.
I've pretty much already succumed to this. If gas was dirt cheap, there's no doubt I would drive a giant crew cab pickup. I've been driving a fairly fuel efficient sedan for the better part of a decade. <sigh>
Reality forcing us to improve sucks?? Why? It seems that reality is the only thing that can force us to improve since humans seem to be creatures of comfort (i.e. the idea that we should wait until gas prices are crippling in order to begin research on an alternative). Why do we have to squeeze a stone until its dry when there are rivers available if we just take the time to get there?
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Darrin lives a fantasy world, believing all the LIES the VRWC feeds him, while denying the reality that Western civilization's energy consumption, destruction of soil, water, air is on unsustainable trajectory to disaster. He's all freedom, with no responsibility.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RandomGuy
Link?
I say that mostly facetiously, because that strikes me as awfully close to a blanket dismissal of the sort that have a habit of turning out to be proven wrong.
Sunlight is insufficient to power most cars as they are running, that is quite plain.
But when you get a larger area, and a long enough time, you can store a lot of energy to charge batteries and so forth.
It sounds to me like you are buying into Darrin's "density" argument without thinking critically about it first, no offense.
There are some rather promising technologies that offer the potential of tripling the amount of energy stored per unit weight of battery, and that will allow plenty of "density" after you have concentrated a diffuse source like sunlight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RandomGuy
The ion engines being used in spacecraft are a good example of how the dimension of time has to be considered when thinking about energy.
The ion engines use a very tiny amount of fuel, and give out only a tiny amount of thrust. No one would say they are powerhouses by any stretch. But what makes them useful is the time factor, as you can apply that force over 24/7.
Similarly, a solar panel can only catch a certain amount of energy at any given instant, but when you add up that energy over 8-12 hours of daylight, especially in sunny places, it starts to accumulate, especially when you start talking about large areas.
I just don't buy the "sunlight doesn't cut it" argument at all. It seems to be ignoring both technological progress and likely developments, as well as some more basic concepts like time and area.
Well said, though it will fall on completely deaf ears, sadly. Anytime someone is willing to make such token statements about technology with that kind of certainty, you can safely assume a couple of things: 1) They don't know much about the field they're speaking of, and 2) it's going to be practically impossible to convince them of anything except their opinion-as-fact bias.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cry Havoc
Well said, though it will fall on completely deaf ears, sadly. Anytime someone is willing to make such token statements about technology with that kind of certainty, you can safely assume a couple of things: 1) They don't know much about the field they're speaking of, and 2) it's going to be practically impossible to convince them of anything except their opinion-as-fact bias.
Of course you can increase the size of the solar panel exponentially and the storage capacity of the battery and make an electric car "work". I never said you couldn't.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
i own a prius, watch out the hidden costs of maintaining one and the costs of replacing the lithium batteries...
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Of course you can increase the size of the solar panel exponentially and the storage capacity of the battery and make an electric car "work". I never said you couldn't.
That's not really what I said though. I was talking about using photovoltaic paint as an additional way to gather energy for the car, not a primary one.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Of course you can increase the size of the solar panel exponentially and the storage capacity of the battery and make an electric car "work". I never said you couldn't.
PV efficency is increasing at an exponential rate. I confess I know jack shit about batteries but PV panels are getting smaller and producing more energy.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Bottom line is 1 square foot in full sunlight at the equator receives about 100 watts of total energy from sunlight in 12 hours. Thats with 100% recovery. It is what it is.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Bottom line is 1 square foot in full sunlight at the equator receives about 100 watts of total energy from sunlight in 12 hours. Thats with 100% recovery. It is what it is.
100 watts/hour average not per day.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Drachen
100 watts/hour average not per day.
correction duly noted
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Drachen
Reality forcing us to improve sucks?? Why? It seems that reality is the only thing that can force us to improve since humans seem to be creatures of comfort (i.e. the idea that we should wait until gas prices are crippling in order to begin research on an alternative). Why do we have to squeeze a stone until its dry when there are rivers available if we just take the time to get there?
I take issue with your use of "improve".
Full-size pickup or SUV -> Small, egg-shaped hybrid : not an "improvement"
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
Bottom line is 1 square foot in full sunlight at the equator receives about 100 watts of total energy from sunlight in 12 hours. Thats with 100% recovery. It is what it is.
Engine efficiency has improved. Battery efficiency has improved. Cars have continued to get lighter (this is interesting http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...-from-coal-ash). Its inconceivable today but not in the future.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
I take issue with your use of "improve".
Full-size pickup or SUV -> Small, egg-shaped hybrid : not an "improvement"
Its a shame no one is trying to make hybrid trucks or SUVs.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
Its a shame no one is trying to make hybrid trucks or SUVs.
Eh, they are. But people that drive trucks and SUVs don't want to buy the more efficient, less powerful versions. I can supply sales data if you want.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
Eh, they are. But people that drive trucks and SUVs don't want to buy the more efficient, less powerful versions. I can supply sales data if you want.
You're telling me that if you had two equal SUVs and one was a hybrid you wouldn't want it because it was a hybrid?
:lmao
Actually, I wouldn't doubt that the general public actually feels that way, but I don't think you'd find anyone with an actual brain who thinks that a smart way of going about things. Its such a completely stupid mindset. Wanting inefficiency for the fucking sake of inefficiency is amazingly ridiculous.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MannyIsGod
You're telling me that if you had two equal SUVs and one was a hybrid you wouldn't want it because it was a hybrid?
:lmao
Actually, I wouldn't doubt that the general public actually feels that way, but I don't think you'd find anyone with an actual brain who thinks that a smart way of going about things. Its such a completely stupid mindset. Wanting inefficiency for the fucking sake of inefficiency is amazingly ridiculous.
I guess you missed the word "power".
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
You're the one assuming the hybrids will never provide the same power rates as non hybrids. Its a complete strawman in order to give yourself a way to approve of regular engines over hybrids.
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarrinS
I guess you missed the word "power".
2011 Chevy tahoe hybrid - 332 HP, 367 lb-ft. torque
2011 Chevy tahoe - 320 HP, 335 lb-ft. torque
DOH!
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Re: $7 per gallon before a hybrid is worth it
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Drachen
2011 Chevy tahoe hybrid - 332 HP, 367 lb-ft. torque
2011 Chevy tahoe - 320 HP, 335 lb-ft. torque
DOH!
:lmao !!!!!!!!!!
