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Rasho Nesterovic. Come on. I give you credit for Bowen and Duncan being great defenders but Rasho is too slow to be a great defender. Duncan has made every center look good because he takes away their defiencies on defense. Nesterovic won't be playing so it will depend on Horry and Mohammad.
This just goes to show you that thousands of posts and intelligence don't necessarily have anything in common. :rolleyesQuote:
Originally Posted by T Park
Rasheed will not be guarding Horry. Horry's not really much of a threat and he will probably be guarded by tay. Rasheed will be guarding Tim for the most part.Quote:
Originally Posted by foofida
They are going to clog the middle of the lane just like everyone tries to do against us and make us a jump shooting team. The counter to that is simple, one, make your jump shots or two, feed Duncan down low enough that they have to double team. If they double, then the swing passes, and slashing to the lane will be there. So basically if we play Spurs basketball, we'll be alright.
On offense, the Spurs need to push the ball. In the half-court, the Spurs need to hit perimeter shots to open up the lane.
On defense, Bowen needs to limit Rip, and the Spurs need to limit offensive boards.
Rasho started most of the season and by that time I remember being better than the Mavericks... So you have to give the man credit if he also was part of the own the spurs gave on the mavericks early in the series.Quote:
Originally Posted by mavsfan1000
We've been using the big man alot and he has been effective against half court teams...heck he actually played decent in the regular season series against PHX.
You really underestimate the guy that could've been a part of a championship run last year.
Also I didn't know you had to be fast to be a defender... much less against detroit.
You don't know your shit..plain and simple.
We've got two great teams going head to head here...both are confident and both believe in their game plan.
Detroit apparently thinks they can play Tim duncan straight up...and they may be right if Sheed doesn't get in foul trouble...he moves his feet well and uses his quick long arms to harrass Tim...and has had success over his career in forcing Tim to put the ball on the floor which is the weakest part of his game...Big Ben is quick on help defense if Tim gets the first step on Sheed...
If Tim is patient and plays smart to get Sheed in foul trouble then the dynamics change dramatically...Sheed plays emotionally and streaky...if he gets rattled by the refs it really changes his game...
I don't think Detroit is gonna start out packing the lanes to stop Tony and Manu...I think the defense will give a couple of steps but they are gonna make them prove they can drive before they adjust...Our backcourt needs to come out guns blazing and drive agressively...free throws will be critical...Big Ben is a great shot blocker and knows it...but Tony and Manu are both very unorthodox going to the rim...They need to sucker BWallace into a couple of quick fouls and then attack relentlessly...make Detroit make the adjustments...but hopefully hold home court serve for the first two before they do...If they fuck around and drop a game at the SBC it will be brutal going to Detroit for the next three...
Once they inevitably start packing the driving lanes and start doubling Tim it will get ugly...The series will hinge on the Spurs knocking down perimeter shots and making their free throws...the best game plan in the world won't change that...
We've beaten Suns at their own game, we'll beat Detroit at their own game. We need to shut them down like never before. Shut down 'Sheed, Hamilton, Billups in that order. That's it, who else is gonna score for them?
Pop likes Mohammad more and would use him over Rasho. I could see usage for Rasho against Miami but Ben Wallace is not a good matchup for him. On one end Ben will make Rasho have to get back. On the other end Rasho isn't a scoring threat so Ben Wallace would float off him to contest other shots. For this reason I don't see Rasho getting any time or very little time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sense
I doubt Pop likes Mohammad over Rasho, he probably did in the PLAYOFFS... simply because it worked, but how is Ben Wallace a mismatch on Rasho?Quote:
Originally Posted by mavsfan1000
They would just simply cancel each other out period... Why would Ben ignore Rasho if he's on him? hahahah please..
Mohammed to me is lighter and weaker than Ben... so you will see more of Rasho in the series...
I agree, Ben doesn't like to come out of the paint too far, and Rasho can shoot the midrange. Pop will at least try this matchup.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sense
Beating the Pistons means staying aggressive. The Pistons have a good starting five but when they have to turn to their bench things don't look so good. So if the Spurs attack the hoop and get any of them in early foul trouble then things start looking much better for the Spurs. Tim has to use his footwork and skills to get one or both of the Wallaces in trouble early. If Ben has to sit then Parker and Gino will be able to get to the rim much easier. And if Rasheed sits then life becomes a lot easier for the Spurs defensively because they don't have to park one of their big men out on the three point line. Granted that's easier said than done but if the Pistons are going to show Tim one on one that has to be where you attack them first. Failing that, Parker has a huge speed advantage over Billups and should be able to exploit that somehow. Alot depends on who the Pistons have on Manu. If it's Hamilton then Manu should go to the hoop everytime he touches the ball, tiring Rip a little and drawing fouls, which is really his strong suit. If it's Prince I still think Ginobili has the speed to get past him, but Prince is still a good perimeter defender. Look for Horry to get a lot of minutes drawing his man out of the paint with his shooting ability.
Defensively Billups and Prince pose good post up threats so Nazr is going to have a lot of pressure to rotate over to help and still get back to cover Ben Wallace on the boards, but if he brings his best hustle I think he can do a passable job. And Bruce just has to be his usual Rash of himself on Hamilton. He won't shut him down but if he'll make him work his ass off. Tim needs to force Rasheed out to the perimeter and turn him into a jump shooter. He can hit the three but he really only gets hot in a game if he can do a little dirty work in the paint to get into his rhythm first. If he starts with the jump shooting he's much less of a threat to the Spurs.
Other than that the Spurs just have to outscore, out rebound, and out defend the Pistons. Should be a good game.
I think in the spotlight of the Finals, in falling all over themselves to applaud the Pistons' team defense (which I agree is exceptional), many have forgotten just how good this Spurs team is defensively.
The idea that Rasho Nesterovic is some mediocre defender is laughable -- Rasho does it quietly, maintaining exceptional position in the post and changing shots at the rim. He's not a rebounding monster, and he's never going to fare too well if asked to play one-on-one defense in space (though, at one point during the Phoenix series, he stepped out into space and forced Nash to pass the ball), but the Spurs defense doesn't often ask him to do those things. Rasho should play in this series and can make a difference.
Personally, though, I think Horry may end up seeing another increase in his minutes, because he can create a better matchup for Tim on the block or take Detroit out of some of what they want to do. If the Spurs play Duncan-Horry-Bowen-Manu-Parker, the Pistons almost have to use one of the Wallaces on Horry. If it's Rasheed, Tim gets, IMO a more favorable one-on-one matchup with Big Ben; if it's Ben, the Spurs can force a shot blocker out of the lane or cause the Pistons to scramble on the defensive end to stay with shooters. It becomes an even bigger problem if the Spurs go smaller or more athletic with that group. If you can match Duncan-Horry-Brown-Manu-Parker, I think you ensure that the Pistons have to put one of the Wallaces on Horry, since I don't imagine that Larry wants Rasheed chasing around slashers on the perimeter -- with Bowen on the floor, Rasheed could, I suppose, take Bowen and leave Prince to defend Horry.
Ultimately, I think this series will be about matchups and who can play the chess game the best. I would agree that the Spurs help their chances by pushing the ball when they have opportunities to get easy points in transition. But I don't think the Spurs defense is going to be a liability in the half-court.
I agree with Whott that the Spurs need to worry about stopping Billups and Prince. I could see Pop moving Bowen around to cover whoever has the hot hand. The Pistons really have 4 starters capable of scoring 25 on any given night so the Spurs won't be able to focus on only one or two scoring threats.
I heard Larry Brown on the radio saying that the Pistons are going to allow Tim to get his, but their focus is going to be on stopping everyone else. I think Tim can abuse anyone in the league one-on-one. I do know though, as Aggie mentioned, that Rasheed always tends to play Tim tough. I think the Pistons bigs will have foul problems trying to stop Tim one on one.
Our bench is going to have to play big. We're going to need significant contributions from Horry and Big Dog and something positive out of Barry. Even though it doesn't seem likely I still foresee something big (in a good way) out of Barry in this series. . .just a feeling. :SPAM
Anyway, this should be a great series. I'm pumped. Anyone poo-pooing this as a boring matchup is not a true fan of NBA basketball.
Spurs in 6.
Spurs should take away what the Pistons do best and force them to go to what they're not best at. They should take away the shots off screens and post ups. Try to force the Pistons to rely on long range shooting as they're not a good long range shooting team, particualrly if those long range shots can be contested. Those long range shots can lead to long rebounds feeding the break.
Pistons offense is not quick hitting, taking time to free shooters running screens or posting up by backing down players. Pressure the ball being brought upcourt to take time off the clock so there's less time to run the offense.
Nazr has to be more aggressive stepping out on screens than he was against either Seattle or Phoenix. He tended to want to stay in the paint. If he won't step out give Rasho more of his minutes.
If Devin's healthy give him a go. Wouldn't mind seeing Manu at PG with Brown and Bowen if Parker and Beno can't handle Billups.
Rebound at the defensive end.
Rasheed should matchup well to Tim. This will also let Ben Wallace to once again become a defensive force off the ball. He doesn't have Shaq to stop him from helping so Detroit's defense could be better in this series.
Detroit is a decent 3 point shooting team. Billups, Prince, and R. Wallace can all hit the 3. You want Detroit to try to beat you off the dribble and not let them get open shots. They are weak at penetrating and rely on screens for Hamilton.Quote:
Originally Posted by picnroll
Great thread; lots of very solid chess-game analysis, but the thing is, this series will have more in common with the Battle of the Bulge than with Kasparov v. Fisher. Muscling your way to the rebounds, grabbing loose balls and being a quarter-step quicker to the key spots on the floor will have as much to do with it as the chess game. If the Spurs want the trophy back, they're going to have to outwork the Pistons in the trenches, possession by possession.
That said, if you guys can get out in transition a lot, you'll be off to a good start.
Spurs beat Pistons easily in 3G% for the 05 playoffs:
Code:T50 Player 3FGM 3FGA 3FG%
==================================================
14. Manu Ginobili 30 65 .462
16. Brent Barry 22 50 .440
18. Robert Horry 23 54 .426
19. Bruce Bowen 16 38 .421
==================================================
91 207 .439
23. Tayshaun Prince 21 51 .412
34. Chauncey Billups 33 89 .371
43. Rasheed Wallace 24 69 .348
==================================================
78 209 .373
The spurs also played the suns and more offensive minded teams while Detroit is playing very tough defensive minded teams like Indiana and Miami.
Don't expect too many open 3's because LB won't double team Duncan.
Ooh, I'd like to see a vBookie on that.Quote:
Originally Posted by mavsfan1000
no kidding...when they go down 2-0 Brown will adjust and clog the lanes and bring the double on Duncan...Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbendbruisebrother
Spurs shot better form outside all season. They have better shooters. Sheed is inconsistent. Prince is good from the corners, that's it. Billups is good but actually has been in a shooting slump in the playoffs which hopefully will continue. Hamilton is known to suck outside the line. You've tried to argue the Pistons' three point shooting in two threads and it's a losing argument. I rather live with somewhat contested threes from the top of the key than midrange curls off screen or post ups in the paint. If they're hot form outside you adjust but make them prove it.
Two things:Quote:
Originally Posted by mavsfan1000
(1) whatever else you think of the Pistons three point shooting, the Spurs were number 1 in the NBA in fewest 3PT attempts per game this season (it was a difference of almost 3 attempts from SA (10.7) to the team that faced the next fewest 3 attempts, IND (13.1)). Take it for what you will, but to me, it says that the Spurs don't allow teams to get many looks from behind the arc. The few looks that teams are willing to take are quality looks, so the percentage against is a bit higher than you might think, but percentages are insignificant if you don't allow many attempts.
(2) If the Pistons are a decent 3 point shooting team, then the Spurs burn up the nets from distance. Over the course of the regular season, the Pistons had 4 guys who took an appreciable number of 3's. Their percentages were:
.426 Billups
.341 Prince
.318 R. Wallace
.305 Hamilton
Billups' percentage is better than any Spur's, but San Antonio has 6 guys who shot better from 3 than any Piston other than Billups -- and only Parker shot worse than any Piston from distance (among those with ample attempts):
.408 Udrih
.403 Bowen
.376 Ginobili
.372 Brown
.370 Horry
.357 Barry
.276 Parker
In these playoffs, the numbers are pretty much identical. The Pistons have 4 guys who shoot the 3, and only Prince is north of .400:
.412 Prince
.371 Billups
.348 R. Wallace
.321 Hamilton
The Spurs, meanwhile, have 4 guys who are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc -- all of them are shooting a better percentage than Prince:
.462 Ginobili
.440 Barry
.426 Horry
.421 Bowen
Both Parker (.206) and Udrih (.242) have struggled from distance in the playoffs, but all-in-all, the Spurs' three point shooting is better since the playoffs began.
I just don't see three point shooting as being a decisive factor in the overall run of this series.
It could be fairly decisive in that Detroit can't use the threat of the three to stretch the defense nearly as much as the Spurs can. Sheed is very spotty and if he's off the Spurs can collapse the defense from the top.Quote:
I just don't see three point shooting as being a decisive factor in the overall run of this series.