Seeding considerations

This is getting irrational.

If we sit the big 3 in any games (including tonight's) down the stretch - it will be solely for our own benefit. How it plays out for the Lakers or anybody is pointless to worry about.

Hell - beat the Lakers tonight, they still have a good shot at the 3 seed. But even if they drop to 4, you may not have to worry about them anyways with Memphis matching up well AND playing better bball the second half of the year.

I know that the 2 beat downs at home the Lakers have given us over the past 13 months lead to fear, and they're not an ideal match-up for us under any circumstances. That said, no point in going out of our way to avoid them. If they're playing good bball, we'd have to meet them at some point anyways. And even if we do - over a 7 game series, they have issues with matching up with us along the perimeter that we do matching up with them down low.

They'll also have Kobe back, who (with a career low 52% TS%) is going to take shots away from the down low advantage they have (57% TS% for Gasol/Bynum).

why would lakers want to face spurs in 2nd round? IMO they rather wait til WCF. Get Kobe in shape/rhythm, hope for injuries

A win tonight pretty much guarantees the Spurs the 1st seed because i don't see them going worse than 3-1 in the last 4 games.

Even if the Lakers lose tonight, i still think they finish at the 3rd seed because I think the Clippers go 2-1 to finish the year.

I'd be very happy if the Spurs finish at 1 and the Lakers at 3. But I'd be fine if the Lakers finished at 4 and had to play Memphis in the 1st round. I'm not so sure the Lakers get out of that series and even if they do, it's gonna be extremely physical and could give the Spurs the edge should they meet in Round 2.

Worst case scenario would be the Spurs/Lakers to finish at 2/3.

That said, I'm with Mel regarding tonight and think the Spurs should try their best to maintain rhythm and momentum. If they want to sit one of the Big 3 then I'm for Manu sitting. But I think we should go for the win tonight and like our chances.

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Originally Posted by hater

all we need to fear are injuries at this point.

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So what's your plan to avoid that?

The Lakers probably want and are trying for the 3rd seed, so the Spurs need to do what it takes to secure the 1st seed.

I think everyone plays to win this weekend. Things MAY be a bit more clear after that.

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Originally Posted by will_spurs

So what's your plan to avoid that?

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Live in a bubble.

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Originally Posted by Warlord23

I don't think that's right. The magic number for LAL to get the 3rd seed should be 2.

LAL: 40-23, LAC: 39-24
LAL winning only 1 game out of their 3 will give them a record of 41-25. If LAC wins all 3 of their games, they get to 42-24. However, 2 LAL wins or (1 LAL win + 1 LAC loss) guarantees the 3rd seed to the Lakers.

And that's where the risk is. If the Spurs beat the Lakers tonight, and the Lakers then lose to OKC on Sunday, LAL can drop to #4 if the Clips win out.

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the Clippers are not winning out. The lakers will be the number 3 seed.

If the Lakers are playing well they will beat OK City and then meet up with the Spurs in the WCF anyways. The seeding matters in reaching the WCF but the Spurs may meet up with the Lakers anyways just at a latter time when Kobe is back at full strenght and the Lakers are rolling.

I see OK City as the choke team is this years playoffs. Everyone is thinking they will take out the Lakers but a good chance that does not happen.

Fuck that.

The Spurs need to stay healthy and mentally/physically fresh comes PO time. Beyond that? Aspciet spartam...

We should try to win every game why maintaining rest for our older players. Also, even if the Lakers fell to 4th place, I wouldn't pencil them in just yet to beat Memphis. They have the size to compete against the Lakers and in my opinion, they are a better team overall.

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Originally Posted by will_spurs

So what's your plan to avoid that?

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you can't really avoid them alltogether. Luck and precaution, just like driving.

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Originally Posted by will_spurs

So what's your plan to avoid that?

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Mel suggested wrapping Manu in bubble wrap until the playoffs. Frankly, I kind of like it.

A friend of mine is a Lakers fan and here is his perspective:

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I think it makes no sense that the Lakers would tank to get #4. They WILL limit Kobe's minutes with him just coming back and still not 100%. They also have to get Gasol, who as you said has logged a ton of minutes, some rest. Again, I understand that Hill was hurt earlier but Brown should have been throwing him in for some minutes recently. That aside the Lakers want to be third seed much more than any concern for who they would play in round two. I think LA would prefer to play the Spurs merely because the speed of OKC/Westbrook gives us a little more trouble. However the Spurs also thumped us and the Lakers know the Spurs are a better team too. The three is important because Memphis is a much better team and a tougher match-up for either LA team than either Dallas or Denver. I also think the Lakers are confident enough to think it's possible that they and the Clips stage upsets in round two and meet gives home-court to the three. Pretty unlikely, but they have to think that way. Lastly, the whole Lakers organization does not want the Clippers to finish ahead of them. I am really rooting hard for the #3 to be locked so the Lakers will not have to play all-out in that last Sacto game. The Kings suck but hate the Lakers and will definitely play all-out to be us if something is on the line for us.
I also think it is foolish for the Spurs to tank and lose to the Lakers. They can find some minutes of rest in other games, and your guys aren't that beaten down anyway. If the Spurs lose to the Lakers they increase their chances of dropping to the #2. A potential road situation in the conf. finals seems highly undesirable. Beyond that they'd set the Lakers at #3 for a potential match in round two. We all know, despite the fact that OKC is better than LAL, that the Spurs camp (including fans :) ) has a paranoia about meeting the Lakers. The Clippers did the Spurs a favor last night. Now the Spurs can go for the #1 and beat the Lakers, yet still figure doing so MIGHT not drop the Lakers to #4.

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So yeah, win or lose tonight, doesn't really matter, just rest Manu.

Although so many scenarios could still play out, it does seem somewhat likely at this point that the Spurs will have (for them) an ideal path to the finals:

1. Utah/Phx.
2. LAC, who is a bad matchup for the Grizz
3. OKC, and we're a bad matchup for them.

I think this is the law of averages at work, given the worst possible draw last season.

The way I see it, Lakers beating OKC would be fantastic for us, maybe even better than winning tonight. It gives us a half game advantage over OKC and gives us a little more room to breathe, and almost locks the Lakers into the 3 seed.

Biggest game of the weekend folks, no doubt about it. I will be watching it and rooting HARD for the Lakers.