Why The Spurs Can't Afford To Lose Danny Green

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Originally Posted by 8FOR!3

Yeah it's hard to call a guy who was one of the leaders on a national championship team a choker regardless of what he does. Anybody who watched Green's contributions to the team last year should understand he deserves another contract offer in San Antonio. If his value is too high and we can't afford him, that's another thing.

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Looking back I still wonder why Indiana picked Psycho T ahead of Ty Lawson and Green... but then it's the Pacers and their fetish for white bigs. :lol

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Originally Posted by K-State Spur

He played an outstanding series in the first round (which Bonner has never done), played an even better second round series (which Bonner has never done), and then played poorly in 3 of the first 4 games against OKC - and was banished to the bench for the rest of the series.

So he choked for 3 of 12 playoff games. ...in his first legit postseason.

Newsflash: Young guys typically struggle in the playoffs. That's why contenders typically fill their role slots with veterans. Most guys aren't Robert Horry clutch straight out of the shoot (and even Horry had some shitty playoff series).

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Yeah, if you think about the current Spurs they're the inverse of the championship teams. Instead of surrounding the young core with older role players/ring chasers, the veteran big 3 are surrounded by young role players.

A team like that doesn't get to the conference finals most of the time, so what the Spurs did this season was 2003-04 level of overachieving near the tail end of the season. Problem is, Tim can't carry the team like he used to, so it's up to Tony and to a slightly lesser extent Manu.

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Originally Posted by timvp

However, as Green hit iron on three-pointer after three-pointer against the Oklahoma City Thunder, it was easy to grow frustrated.

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Sounds like an article that would have been written for Bonner or RMJ after their first playoff collapse.

people forget about all the big shots he hit during the reg season and in the playoffs
he won an okc game by stealing an inbound pass during the reg season
him and leonard were torching utah and were the guys doing the scoring during those 20-0 type runs
during the clippers he was guarding chris paul during the end games
he was also draining 3s with griffin in his face in close games in the 4th quarter

chokers dont make plays like this




during that same game in ot they inbounded the ball to the king with close to 10 seconds left
who promptly decided to urinate himself and let vince carter steal the ball

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Originally Posted by dbestpro

Sounds like an article that would have been written for Bonner or RMJ after their first playoff collapse.

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Not really.

Unless there is a minimum/BAE type of player who'd be better than Danny Green, which imo is not the case, then losing him would weaken the team as there's no money for a replacement. Hopefully no dumbass GM grossly overpays him.

Green was on a torrid 3 PT shooting stretch as the Spurs rolled through the first two round of the playoffs. The issue was that round by round the perimeter defense gets tighter. By the time we played OKC, he had to have an extremely quick trigger to get the shot off. He forced a few, missed a few open ones, and Pop panicked. Instead of staying the course, he went heavy with Gary Neal, which didn't work any better.

Same issue was evident with Bonner. Once the wide open 3s dried up, he didn't know what to do. With his short arms and low release, he just can't get a good shot off under any kind of pressure.

Contrast that with S Jax, who has a high overhead release. No problem getting the shot off, and we know what he does to pressure...

Green is a solid player that we have on the cheap. He plays with lots of energy and can create havoc on defense. Has ability to hit the three pointer that I dont think any of us saw coming. If he can continue to hit the three pointer at the 40+ percent clip or higher then we are in good shape at the 2. I'm not going to fault at a player that had some stuggles in the WCF.
What I'd like to see Green improve on is his ability to dribble under pressure, finish at the rim and his passing. At this point, if he is not catching and shooting I begin to cringe if he decides to do something with the ball receiving.

Just from watching the games, it was always apparent to me how valuable Green has been as a regular contributor to the Spurs - from the starting 2-guard spot. I was quite surprised as to how well he was playing and how much he had developed from last season.

After the Spurs having watched Bonner choke his playoff life away for four straight years, I can easily forgive Green for his regression in the WCFs - and everyone else should too. While it's still early in his career, there is nothing to suggest Green will not continue his upward surge in development.

If I wasn't already convinced how much the Spurs needed to resign Green, after reading this, I certainly am now. Thanks for taking the time and effort of putting this together.

I like Green and don't hold the WCF against him. He played well all season and in the first 2 rounds with passion and confidence. He brings a lot of the small things that help the defense work, like tips, blocks, pressure and long arms. Smart player who will only get better and I don't think the Spurs have a replacement for the same cost.
I just hope that some other GM does not spend the money for him. He is certainly worth the qualifying offer.

One other important reason why the Spurs cannot afford to lose Danny Green? The decline of Manu Ginobili. Unfortunately for all of us who've marveled at Manu's greatness, it's obvious that he's undergoing some serious decline - with age, injury risk and production.

While Green is nowhere near the playmaker, shot creator or star-in-the-making that Manu was in his prime, Green does serve as a nice transition option as the Spurs starting 2-guard.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

Not really.

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Yes really. Green is okay, maybe even good, but he is just not good enough and has all the trappings of a crunch time playoff failure.

My opinion is that the Spurs should match any offer that their Early Bird Rights will allow them too.
All decisions are cap decisions. If the Spurs don't re-sign Green, they will need to use an exception to get another 2 guard. We want to use our MLE to get Diaw and/or Lorbek, not find a replacement for Green. There is no way that the LLE or the vet min gets a as good or better replacement for Green.
Even if we did find such a player, why not sign him in addition to having Green on the squad? For those who say Green's another Bonner, a) it's his first playoffs and he did exceptionally well in the first 2 series, b) unless you think he's Ray Allen in disguise, his shooting was going to regress to the mean sooner or later c) he's not 1 dimensional like Bonner. If Bonner isn't hitting his shots and spreading the floor, he doing nothing useful. Green meanwhile, is a great rebounder (for a 2 guard), and remains our best perimeter defender (as the stats show, "against the Thunder, Green was again the team’s best defender in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions"!).
Finally, If there is no offer: don't bid against yourself! If he asks the Spurs for an offer, I would definitely offer a full 4 years, and maybe up to $16 million... Trade of length (years) vs. cost per year. I've seen enough to say that I'm willing to live with him on the team as a 2 guard. He's one of those guys that plays to the team philosophy. As Pop puts it, "He's gotten over himself." It's a very valuable trait for role-players.

Your post has all the trappings of a critical thinking failure, man. If he's good you keep him. Matt Bonner and RMJ are not and were not good, so they should go. Green, however is a keeper at the right price. Especially if by some miracle a 2.7 MM QO gets it done.

Seriously, how do you compare a good defender and decent offensive player who shoots an efctive 3 pt% and also allows Pop to manage Manu's minutes effectively with Roger Bricklayer and Coach B? Sample size is key.

I agree Green looked piss poor in the Thunder series, but maybe bring some real counterpoint analysis to the original post and a better suggestion than Timvp's idea of keeping Green at a reasonable cost if you want him gone.

I wonder if Danny reads this and holds out for more money.

I would like for Danny Green to be in the silver and black next season. He happened to struggle at worst possible time but he brings a lot to the table defensively and there is no one else we can bring in to fill the hole he would leave.

Of course if the Spurs somehow miracled their way into getting Batum and played him at the SG, then by all means let Danny walk but since that isnt going to happen, we must re-sign him.

I'd like to see Green back, but not with an overpaid long term contract. He deserves more money than he was paid this year, but we've seen one year wonders before.

It was his real first playoff experience. I like him despite the fallout he had against the Thunder. I remember kobe throwing up bricks against utah in his early years in the playoffs. Im not saying this guy is anywhere near that level lol all im saying is he showed a ton of upside. Give him a chance to flourish. Great article

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Originally Posted by dbestpro

Yes really. Green is okay, maybe even good, but he is just not good enough and has all the trappings of a crunch time playoff failure.

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No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

Green has limitations, for example he won't ever be a Westbrook type of dunker when finishing around the rim. Then again, those are a very select few players that can do that, D Wade comes to mind as already mentioned. Also Green is doing other things to compensate on defense, like the shotblocking which I view as a function of being a tenacious and smart defender.

The biggest missing piece to Green's game is a midrange and off the dribble game like what Neal has. Neal has that ability to hit a jumpshot anywhere inside the arc, or throw in a pretty banker off the glass. Given that Green has some athletic limitations when finishing around the rim, that type of midrange game would really round him out nicely. Not a very common skill set though.

So at this point anything in the $3-$4 million range seems like a fair deal for all. We can hope he develops that midrange game and overachieves, in which case he could warrant a $5-$10 million annual deal after reupping.

Given that, I'd say 3-4 years, $9-$16 million range. Either side could come out ahead in this deal, depending on his ongoing development which is an unknown.

I don't think though, that this guy has any fear whatsoever, and that is the type of guy I want on the team. A refusal to back down and give an inch.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

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And neither Bonner nor Mason were considered solid defenders. I think that's as key a component for Green to be brought back as his ability to spread the floor and knock down open threes.

I also think his shot creation ability is undervalued. I'm not advocating isos for him, but he's better than a stand-still 3pt shooter like James Jones.

:lol greys in this thread that want to let Green walk

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Originally Posted by pad300

All decisions are cap decisions. If the Spurs don't re-sign Green, they will need to use an exception to get another 2 guard. We want to use our MLE to get Diaw and/or Lorbek, not find a replacement for Green. There is no way that the LLE or the vet min gets a as good or better replacement for Green.

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Bingo. Even if you are still feeling butthurt about the WCF and have made up your mind that Green is now a choker after one playoff series his production still has to be replaced...that will cause one of the exceptions to be used. The Spurs really can't afford that.

Remember, this is a team approaching transition. Re-signing Danny Green for the next 4 years doesn't make or break the Spurs title chances because there is a good chance the window is closed anyway.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

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This too.

I'm amazed at the vitriol being lashed at Green because of one poor playoff series, while chokers like Bonner have been hanging around this team for years.

Green already has more produced better playoff production skins in his first go-round (Jazz, Clippers) than Bonner has his entire Spurs career.

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Originally Posted by benefactor

:lol greys in this thread that want to let Green walk

Bingo. Even if you are still feeling butthurt about the WCF and have made up your mind that Green is now a choker after one playoff series his production still has to be replaced...that will cause one of the exceptions to be used. The Spurs really can't afford that.

Remember, this is a team approaching transition. Re-signing Danny Green for the next 4 years doesn't make or break the Spurs title chances because there is a good chance the window is closed anyway.

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Gotta tell you, that last bit I bolded, is utterly wrong benefactor...

The only way we keep the window open a crack is to improve our bigs. If we spend part of the MLE on a replacement for Danny Green, we can't improve our frontline with that money. That makes re-singing Danny one of several interlinked key steps to having a shot.

... and Green's market value just took a big jump. Landry Fields was really good as a rookie but it's difficult to argue he was much better than Danny Green last year.


http://oi46.tinypic.com/mo11.jpg



Then again, Toronto has the dumbest front office in the NBA. Let's hope the market settles down a bit or else the Spurs really might be in danger of losing Green.

Nice writeup. :tu

The most interesting for me what the part about his defense. I've had some difficulties to evaluate him on that end of the court since he usually doesn't really shine one way or another.

If a team, with cap space, really likes Green , Spurs could lost him easily. Spurs can't match a deal that start above $5.1M so even a frontloaded $15M/3 years contract will be impossible to match. What should help Spurs is that Green is saying he wants to stay in SA. I guess he likely will give Spurs the chance to give him a similar contract before signing an unmatchable offer sheet.