Why Hack-A-Bogut is a Brilliant Strategy

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Originally Posted by Whisky Dog

When they did the hack on Bogut in the 4th it was on the foul that put them in the bonus, meaning if they hadnt done it the next foul would have had them in the bonus anyway.

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Okay, thanks. I thought they fouled him twice in a row. I maintain that 8 1/2 minutes in the penalty on the road is dangerous.

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Originally Posted by jestersmash

The problem with basketball is you can't do controlled experiments by going back in time. Maybe if we go back in time and we don't hack-a-bogut, GSW misses on 2 straight possessions for a total of 0 points in 2 possessions as opposed to 1 point in 2 possessions. Maybe they miss, but Curry gets 2 shot attempts which gets him into a groove later on as he knocks down 5 of his next 7 shots. There are so many confounding variables that it makes the analysis tough.

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Yeah, since we don't know the alternative outcome, it's all just guessing. Sometimes you have to play the percentages. Pop was clearly thinking that allowing one of those shooters to get hot and get the crowd going at the end wasn't worth the risk, and it's a completely sensible way of looking at it. The Spurs aren't shooting well as a team, so putting this game away gives them an extra opportunity to get their offense straightened out.

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Originally Posted by jestersmash

Golden State scores on average about a point per possession (I think it's like 1.03). If you assume they would have scored their average in the absence of hack-a-bogut, then hack-a-bogut only makes sense when Bogut is making < 50% of his free throws.

He was 1-4 on free throws in game 3 (25%), so it probably paid off there.

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Based on Bogus career free throw pct, the point expectation of Hack A Bogut is 1.14 points.
It's a good strategy if used sparingly and opportunistically. For example, it can be helpful when the Spurs are behind because it allows them to get the ball back faster on offense.

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Originally Posted by DMC

Hit vs miss assessments. Bogut hits his FTs it's a bad strategy. He misses it's a good one. Intentionally fouling is not a good strategy because you stop the clock and give your opponent the time to rest and get points back or increase their lead. It's a desperation move for end of the game because there's no other option. You rarely see it make a difference.

Did it work? Who knows. He missed and we got the ball, but then if Manu hits that crazy three he shot in game one, we all talk about how great he is instead of what a bad decision it was. Hit vs miss assessments.

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It's a calculated risk. It's not as if you cannot assess what his FT is, has been recently or whether or not it streaks good and/or bad. It's also not as if it's a really significant risk. If he starts making FT you just stop doing it.

Given that information you can make an intelligent decision rather than use people's stupid uninformed hindsight assessments as for whether or not it's an intelligent decision when it's being made.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

David Lee can play about 5 minutes a game.

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Yeah and he lasted about 2 pnr run at him before he was benched. He got a rebound when he wasn't boxed out though so look out!

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Originally Posted by dbreiden83080

It's amazing how badly GM's can blow drafts. The Bucks take this guy number 1 in 2005 and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. And there is Marvin Williams at number 2 with Atlanta. :lol

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Not a bad pick except for injuries. Bogut could have been a great center but for injuries. He's got a decent touch inside and he rebounds and blocks shots. He's also an elite level passer. You're not seeing the Bogut pre-injury in this series.

Hack-a-Gut is an obvious name for the tactic, but I prefer Bust-a-Gut.

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Originally Posted by Spur Bank

Based on Bogus career free throw pct, the point expectation of Hack A Bogut is 1.14 points.
It's a good strategy if used sparingly and opportunistically. For example, it can be helpful when the Spurs are behind because it allows them to get the ball back faster on offense.

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Fouling off the ball doesn't work in the last 2 minutes of the game, and that's really the only time you care about forcing the other team to end their possessions quickly, unless you're down 16 with 4 minutes to go or something.

And wtf is that avatar, Erin Barry's fallopian tubes or something? Disgusting.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

Yeah, since we don't know the alternative outcome, it's all just guessing. Sometimes you have to play the percentages. Pop was clearly thinking that allowing one of those shooters to get hot and get the crowd going at the end wasn't worth the risk, and it's a completely sensible way of looking at it. The Spurs aren't shooting well as a team, so putting this game away gives them an extra opportunity to get their offense straightened out.

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Yeah I agree, and personally I'm fine with hack-a-whoever in moderation as long as we're hacking ~50% free throw shooters and the expected points per possession from hacking is less than (or at least comparable) to the average overall PPP for the opponent.

It seems to have ancillary benefits as well like taking the crowd out of the game (although again it's unclear whether that's necessarily helpful for us) and giving our guys (notably Tony) a chance to get some extra rest while on the court.

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Originally Posted by Hoops Czar

Not sure where you heard that, but he completely dominated in his 3 minutes of action on Friday. I'm pretty sure he's going to see more and more playing time as the series drags on. I also don't think the Spurs will resort to a hack a Bogut strategy unless the Spurs find themselves backed into a corner late in te series. However, they might opt to put him on the line if he gets the ball and attempts to shoot.

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Lulz his 3 minutes were against Bonner's weak playoff ass. Getting broken by a busted ass David Lee is what got Bonner benched.

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Originally Posted by DAF86

Because he was lucky that Bogut missed.

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That's like saying when you walk out in the rain you're lucky when you get wet.

Spurs are lucky when Curry misses a FT. When Bogut does it it's just the norm. That's why they foul him

Wrong timing on this one pop! Should have used this when up 10, in the third..would have prevented them from going on their run...now they're playing from behind and having to use it....smh