Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
I pick Spurs in 6. Winning 1 of the first two games is only sufficient if we think that the Heat will not win a single road game. I like starting the series in Miami - it increases the amount of pressure upon them. The expectations of most casual fans and casual analysts is that the Heat will win. However, the Cleaveland Heat / Miami Cavaliers cannot beat the San Antonio Spurs in 2013. The Heat have beaten the lEastern conference teams in the playoffs largely with LeBron and 4 guys. They cannot beat the Spurs like that. Wade and Bosh will need to have great series for the Heat to win.
Therefore, I think that we want to turn LeBron into a scorer not a facilitator. LeBron's first instinct is to pass - although he is a great and efficient scorer who shoots well at the 3 at this point in his career. He is more like Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan. If we shut down Wade and Bosh, then we will win the series. We need to avoid turnovers that lead to fast breaks. We need to protect the rim and defend the paint well. We want them to shoot contested long 2's. We must contain dribble penetration because our collapsing defense will open up their 3 point shooters.
Bosh and Haslem will both knock down uncontested 15 foot mid range jumpshoots all day. Play them as midrange shooters. Bosh is not an efficient 3 point shooter - so we want him taking those shots . Over the long run, it will help us more than them if he takes those shots.
They will try to pack the paint. To some extent, we need our 3 point shooters to hit shots in Miami to loosen that up some. Tony will need to prove that he can consistently hit open midrange shots to keep them honest. However, he cannot fall in love with the jumpshot. Tim needs to do most of his work on the post in this series.
The Heat interior defenders turned Roy Hibbert into an offensive world beater. Tim Duncan is one of the very best post players to ever pick up a basketball. Although the last several years, he has favored his pretty consistent jumpshot (esp top of the key as well old faithful off the glass). However, in this series, the Heat are limited in their options to defend him. Joel Anthony, while a great shot blocker, is only 6'9" and cannot guard Timmy in the post. Birdman lacks the iq and the size to guard Timmy in the post. They will have a few spectacular blocks but Timmy will go full beat mode on them in the post. The Heat's weaknesses are precisely in the areas in which the Spurs are strongest. Chalmers is decent at guarding point guards, but not great. He cannot slow down Tony Parker at his peak. No one else even has a chance. I hope that they put LeBron on Tony because LeBron's size will hurt him with pnr defense and screens. He cannot turn with the same agility that Tony has. Quickness and speed are different. Tony is quicker and faster than LeBron. Tony Allen is a much better TP defender and he could not slow down Tony at all. LeBron has even less of a chance.
We cannot go small. Tiago must be in the game and play 30 plus minutes along with Timmy. This series is not for DeJuan Blair. Matt Bonner is an incredibly poor defender and a one trick pony. If he hits his 3's, then he opens up the paint and he is worth keeping in the game. If he does not, then pull him early on in the series. T-Mac might still have game, but it takes so much time to learn the Spurs system that this series is probably not for him either. Diaw will need to play heavy minutes. Neal does not need to see the floor this series. He can practice towel waving with Patty.
If Manu starts scoring, this could be a quick series.
Kawhi and Danny will take turns on LeBron. However, the emphasis should be on shutting down Wade.
Some role players (Kawhi, Danny, and a couple others) will need to play well and shoot the 3 well in Miami for us to win a game there.
We must keep in mind that the Heat role players have played well on the road and hit some big shots.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Chinook
Yes. If that takes Wade out of the series for good, then it's a great deal. Bosh isn't beating everyone, so I'd rather have James try to win by himself than having James destroy Leonard and have Wade get a chance to go off.
I said Green's a good post defender, which is why he may be a better match-up for Lebron. Also, he'd probably be fine on the perimeter since, he knows he doesn't have to help off the best player. That's why he dominated Curry. Lance Stephenson did a decent job on James, and he's about the same size as Green (especially now that Danny has gained so muscle). not like he's a star or anything.
I think your grossly overrating Green's defense. He didn't stop or as you put it "dominate" Curry. Curry's two bad ankles stopped Curry. I'll say it again, the Spurs would be doing themselves a great injustice if they didn't put their best defender on the opposing team's best player. Leonard doesn't need to stop Lebron to be successful. He just needs to make him work for everything he gets. Green would just get abused. He's much better off guarding Wade who's playing with a bum knee. And you'd rather see James win it by himself? His game has evolved since he last played in Cleveland. He's not the "do it all" himself player and now gets his teammates involved early in games and waits until the 4th to become a pure scorer. Back to Wade, he isn't the player he was earlier in the season. If that changes, the Spurs will have to adjust accordingly.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Hoops Czar
I think your grossly overrating Green's defense. He didn't stop or as you put it "dominate" Curry. Curry's two bad ankles stopped Curry.
Yes he did. He even outscored him in a game. That's pretty much about as much as you can dominate a scorer when you're a three-and-D player. The ankle excuse is one that people who didn't actually watch the series use. Green had Curry so turned around by the end of Game 3 that he made a terrible cut to try to get separation, which is what caused the injury. For the first three games (before the injury) Curry has made 2-19 shots when guarded by Green. That's was better than any other player had performed on him by far.
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I'll say it again, the Spurs would be doing themselves a great injustice if they didn't put their best defender on the opposing team's best player.
It doesn't jive for you to say that when you admit that they did the same thing with Green to great success already. That doesn't mean that they will or should do it with Lebron, but only that the best-on-best strategy is not always the most used or most effective.
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Leonard doesn't need to stop Lebron to be successful. He just needs to make him work for everything he gets. Green would just get abused.
Again, that's just your speculation (which is no worse than mine). Green has shown the ability to guard bigger forwards, and when he has, he's been at least as effective as Leonard has. I agree Leonard matches up better from a physical standpoint, and I think Leonard could really lock himself into defense against James over a series. But that's not what this is about. It's about removing the help from James, not trying to slow him down at all.
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And you'd rather see James win it by himself? His game has evolved since he last played in Cleveland. He's not the "do it all" himself player and now gets his teammates involved early in games and waits until the 4th to become a pure scorer.
That's what he wants to do. But if you take away the role-players and sub-stars (by putting the best defenders on them), then you force him to score from jumpstreet. That's why teams have defensive strategies. This isn't 2K; teams don't guard players on islands. Stopping the Heat by forcing James into hero mode is a team concept. The Pacers lost because they tried one-on-one defense with James, just like OKC lost because they tried one-on-one post defense, just like Denver lost because they tried one-on-one guard defense.
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Back to Wade, he isn't the player he was earlier in the season. If that changes, the Spurs will have to adjust accordingly.
That doesn't make sense. The Spurs' strategy could be to stop the Heat by stopping Wade. Even if Wade's hobbling and ineffective, stepping on his throat to prevent a Game Seven -- like resurgence is still a sound strategy. The weaker Wade is, the more energy Leonard has on offense, the more time James has to spend on him, the more time Parker avoids a cross match. It's all pretty well connected.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
The real problem is the Heat's pressure defense when they're really into it.
Luckily we have Tony Parker, a GREAT ball-handler (unlike George Hill). But the problem is when anybody else has the ball in their hands and is dribbling or passing. Fortunately again, at least 70% of our offense goes directly through Parker. BUT when Manu or Joseph or (god-forbid) Neal is in, the chances of the Heat turning us over go up substantially. Frankly, Parker is going to need to play 40+ minutes a game for us this series.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
silverblackfan
Although Wade played better in game 7, I don't think he has been sandbagging. I think that was the results of injections before the game and/or at halftime. It was game 7, I would not be surprised to find out that he needs that to get the most out of his body. How he plays in the first few games may prove me wrong, but I think he is still injured.
All that being said, I prefer Leonard on James for the later quarters, but otherwise just try to prevent the other guys from beating the Spurs.
There is a limit for cortison injections that an athlete can take. Maybe Wade took 1 for game 7, but really, most athletes don't go cortison injections more than 2 times in a 1 month period. Also, most Orthopedic docs will not give an athlete an injection prior to a game or at halftime. You can't really, and here's why, if his Knee is really jacked up, him not feeling the pain, doesn't mean that damage ain't occuring. Also, the risk of infection is greater because it's a shot where the tissue is exposed to sweat and that alone, could cause infection. They could ultrasound or wrap or he could take some hyper-anti-inflamm but it probably isn't shots he's taking. He's limited now and it's funny that the media doesn't talk about it. As if, LeBron's perceived greatness could overcome dragging Wade through the series. It's Lebron and the smallish 2, because truthfully, they ain't playing, and haven't been playing for awhile now, as the Big 3 for Mia. What the Big 3 are is MIA...2 of them are Missing In Action.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
If the warriors series taught us anything it's that good shooters getting hot can hurt us. This is why I believe we need to keep an eye on Ray Allen. He's the best ever spot up shooter.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Charlie Sheen
I think people might be seriously underrating Chalmers. Dude is a really, really good roleplayer and a pretty damn good defender. Haslem = field day. Dude is like Battier at this point - done.
Conley is a standout defender as well. I just think Tony's playing at a whole different level.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
ShoogarBear
As a wise man once said, "Turnovers. Turnovers." That's what killed the Pacers tonight. Some were due to dumb plays by Indiana, but a lot were due to elite defense by the Heat.
Those hard traps and double teams aren't sustainable for a whole game, but the Heat only need one 5-10 minute burst like that to put you away. Tim, Tony, and Manu are going to have to be smart and patient when they come.
That's the biggest factor.
Miami feeds of turnovers and are extremely dangerous on the open court and can score fast.
Crucial will be our p&r's and how Miami gonna pressure TP.
The point to make is to dominate inside, not to make it a guards game.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Hoops Czar
Lebron will get his regardless but I want him to have to work for it. Ginobili is too slow and Green is way too inconsistent. If anything, you can give Lebron diffeent looks for the first three quarters when Lebron usually defers to his teammates. But in the 4th, its got to be Leonard.
Lebron would have Leonard in foul trouble within 6 min of the 1st. The best thing to do is to let smaller quicker guys guard him and let Leonard take out one of the shooters until the 4th quarter then move him onto Lebron and make it tough for him. He will already be tired from carrying the team and a fresh defender like Leonard will really make it tough for him to take over.
Lebron isn't going to beat the Spurs by himself, he needs lots of help, the Spurs need to deny him that help.
This series is going to come down to two things, turnovers and rebounding, if the Spurs win those battles the Spurs win the series.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
Am I missing something here?
Those people who are picking the Heat are still thinking it's the same team that won 27 in a row. Currently, they aren't playing that way. Add an injury to Wade, Bosh disappearing at times, and their perimeter guys not shooting as well, I just don't see how the series is going to be dramatically different than the series vs. the Pacers. In fact, the Spurs can do a lot of the things that the Pacers did on defense with a lot less mistakes.
I have the Spurs in 6 out of respect to Lebron but I don't know, I may just be biased.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37
- The minutes of Gary Neal and Cory Joseph..
I don't trust either guy against Miami's swarming defense, tbh..
Neal can't dribble and Joseph struggles with his aggressiveness, I don't know if Pop can trust either guy to handle the ball, tbh..
Joseph was a non-factor, Neal was a liability, as expected..
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- Spurs' perimeter defenders tendency to fall asleep against shooters..
This has been a problem for the Spurs, tbh..everybody on the perimeter has been a culprit, but Danny Green, Gary Neal and Tony Parker have been bad for this IMO..
The Spurs can't afford to leave guys like Ray Allen, Chalmers, Miller, etc..
Spurs falling asleep against shooters, as expected..
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- What to do with Lebron?..
Do you double him? Do you let him score? Do you guard him with Leonard?..
IMO, make him a scorer, make him play like Kobe, tbh..
Give him different looks, don't make Leonard guard him all game..Kawhi's rebounding and team defense has been a huge key for this Spurs run, he's going to be exhausted against James, especially inside..
I'd rather have Kawhi shutting down Wade, which is a realistic and achievable goal, tbh..
They have allowed Lebron to facilitate and create for others, and Green has been abused by Wade..
God, atrocious coaching and the players are also making horrible decisions..
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
HarlemHeat37
Joseph was a non-factor, Neal was a liability, as expected..
Spurs falling asleep against shooters, as expected..
They have allowed Lebron to facilitate and create for others, and Green has been abused by Wade..
God, atrocious coaching and the players are also making horrible decisions..
All true enough. At least we're still in the game.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
It's extremely encouraging that the Spurs are only down 3, but frustrating that they should be winning this game if not for basic mistakes, tbh..
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Chinook
Yes he did. He even outscored him in a game. That's pretty much about as much as you can dominate a scorer when you're a three-and-D player. The ankle excuse is one that people who didn't actually watch the series use. Green had Curry so turned around by the end of Game 3 that he made a terrible cut to try to get separation, which is what caused the injury. For the first three games (before the injury) Curry has made 2-19 shots when guarded by Green. That's was better than any other player had performed on him by far.
And THAT'S why you put your best defender on Lebron James. END OF STORY!!!! Green's defense for most of the game was pretty appalling whether it was his cameos against Lebron, or his defense on Wade and let's not forget fouling Ray Allen shooting a three. His so-called defense nearly cost the Spurs the game.
BTW, Curry had an injured ankle coming into the series. He injured his other ankle during game 3. Coincidently, I did watch the series and for someone to say Curry wasn't injured when he clearly had no lift, no explosiveness to the basket and was noticeably limping around is clearly a Spurs homer or watched the games via Gamecast. Like I said, Green's defense is still too inconsistent and if it wasn't for Leonard keeping Lebron in check, the Spurs lose.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
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Originally Posted by
Hoops Czar
And THAT'S why you put your best defender on Lebron James. END OF STORY!!!! Green's defense for most of the game was pretty appalling whether it was his cameos against Lebron, or his defense on Wade and let's not forget fouling Ray Allen shooting a three. His so-called defense nearly cost the Spurs the game.
BTW, Curry had an injured ankle coming into the series. He injured his other ankle during game 3. Coincidently, I did watch the series and for someone to say Curry wasn't injured when he clearly had no lift, no explosiveness to the basket and was noticeably limping around is clearly a Spurs homer or watched the games via Gamecast. Like I said, Green's defense is still too inconsistent and if it wasn't for Leonard keeping Lebron in check, the Spurs lose.
Lebron scored on Green twice, and one was a three-pointer that I think the Spurs are fine with James taking. The other was him knocking Green off balance and scoring a layup (pretty bad but not unlike what he did to Leonard a couple of times), but for the most part, Green held his own there pretty well. Even against Wade, Green had two bad possessions. One was letting him get open for a mid-range shot (still not that bad) and the other was letting Wade drive by him for a layup (bad). The rest of the time, Wade hit contested fadeaways. In the second half, those started clanking, and the Spurs took the lead. He made that mistake on Allen which was pretty bad, and no one's trying to justify that. He falls asleep on defense when he's not guarding the opposing team's best player, which is what happened with Allen. All in all, I'd like to see Green keep his head a bit more, but he definitely wasn't the worse player on the court last night. There's no question Green's defense isn't up to the level it was two weeks ago, but there's clearly room for him to grow. He did a good job on Wade for the most part, but people who only look at boxscores will assume he didn't after seeing Wade's line. Just like with Leonard on James, I expect Green to get better at guarding Wade (and Neal on Allen, despite what people may think) as the series goes on.
As I said before, if the Spurs are going to try to play James straight-up, then Leonard is the better match-up. He's taller, longer and somewhat heavier than Green, and even though he had issues in the post this season, he was a power-forward in college. I wanted the Spurs to let James try to get his and focus on shutting down Wade, in which case, Green on James and Leonard on Wade is the appropriate match-up. The same is probably the case if you intend to always bring help on James. For all we know, if James went off like you think he would have (he wouldn't have because the Spurs would have helped even more than they did, which means the role-players would have just gotten more shots) but Wade scored five points instead of 17 due to Leonard shutting him down, the Spurs may well have still won.
Curry's ankle sure didn't stop him from scoring 44 points in Game 1. He was driving past players, making tremendous cuts to get open looks and getting pretty good elevation on his layups. In short, he was about as healthy as he was for most of the season. Green simply took Curry's lunch in that series. Parker couldn't; Joseph couldn't; Leonard didn't. Green did. He's also played most point-guards well when defending them over the last two years. To say Green didn't have a great defensive performance in that series is absurd, and I can only assume you have that view because you buy into the ESPN mentality that stars only fail to shine if they get injured. Green is an inconsistent defender (and everything else) but he's still good way more than he is bad. When he pins his ears back and focuses on his guard, he's about as good of a wing defender as the Spurs could hope for.
Re: A few keys to the series IMO..
They failed at all of my keys tonight, tbh..
The bigs were horrible, the Spurs fell asleep against shooters, Ginobili was atrocious as a facilitator, Neal played too much, and as I said, Spoelstra is always late to adjust, he made the adjustment in game 2 against Tony after being unprepared in game 1..
