Are you confident in a game 7 win?

Yet again, we endure another heartbreaking loss. This time, though, we fought back until the very end and even had our chance to create our own 0.4 legacy shot — but failed.

That being said, are you confident in a game 7 win? It's obvious we were better on the road than at home, but in the playoffs, being at home is always a preference.

We had a lot of major turnovers, but I saw a lot of good things out of our players in this game at the end that makes me confident in a game 7 victory. It's clear we need Patty, Green, Manu, and Parker to show up. Luckily Splitter seems to be doing what he does best, so I'm not concerned about his impact and Duncan will always be Duncan.

About how confident are you going into the game? It's worth noting that it is an afternoon game, which we're historically pretty awful at.

That aside, I think we got it in 7 in a pretty tough game that gets decided midway through the fourth. We'll be under a lot of stress but I think our guys will pull it together.

:yield

No..

Pop only cares about three players

Idk.

60/40 Spurs because of homecourt and because the Mavs aren't very good. But Enrique and Turnobili could definitely blow the game again.

Agreed with BB, I'd say 60%..

Teams like the Mavs, just like the Warriors(against the Clippers in their game 7), are always scary in a 1-game scenario, they have an abundance of weapons and players that can get hot and single-handedly change the outcome of a game, tbh..

Whereas a team like Memphis, even if they had Randolph, is very unlikely to win a game 7 on the road against OKC, they don't have any scary players that can carry your team for stretches..

I just don't want to see Bellinelli, Bonnar or Ayres

Yes. It's very rare for a team to lose at home in game 7. Especially the number one seed.

not at all. If you are confident you are a goddam moron. The only solid players spurs have are Parker and Splitter. Even Kawhi if you are generous. The rest are choking pieces of shit starting with Pop.

I give Spurs a 50% chance of squeaking past the Mavs.

:lol Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome at this point tbh

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Originally Posted by hater

not at all. If you are confident you are a goddam moron. The only solid players spurs have are Parker and Splitter. Even Kawhi if you are generous. The rest are choking pieces of shit starting with Pop.

I give Spurs a 50% chance of squeaking past the Mavs.

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:lmao..

I wouldnt bet on em....

But back to topic, yes, I'm terrified

LOL, I still remember before this series started every fucking person on Ticket 760 was calling this series 4-0 Spurs or 4-1 Spurs, and now it could pretty easily be 4-3 Mavs. Honestly, it should already be 4-2 Mavs if not for them missing all those open shots to end Game 1.

I'm confident that the better team will win the series, and that team is the Spurs based on records. However, my confidence and your confidence means dick because we do not play for the Spurs.

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Originally Posted by hater

not at all. If you are confident you are a goddam moron. The only solid players spurs have are Parker and Splitter. Even Kawhi if you are generous. The rest are choking pieces of shit starting with Pop.

I give Spurs a 50% chance of squeaking past the Mavs.

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parker

:lmao

I don't even know what to think anymore. If we were on the road I don't think we would have a chance. I'm confident about a Spurs win possibly even a blowout but I will be shitting my pants until the clock says zero, and Ellis isn't in the game anymore.

The Spurs will win. Final score will probably betray the game, Mavs may get into a situation where they start fouling.

It has been a great series. I wish the playoffs were always like this across the board. It's actually compelling and has a good degree of parity.

the way this series has gone.....mavs just keep fighting.....despite the fluke bs.....mavs can win in sa....I hope things go right for the spurs sunday

I'm about 40/60 for the Mavs tbh. They really have looked like the better team for a majority of this series.

I don't know anymore.

It is scary going to a game 7 against an opponent filled with championship experience and veterans.

I do believe the Spurs can win, but the Mavs also have a great chance too.

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Originally Posted by Budkin

Yes. It's very rare for a team to lose at home in game 7. Especially the number one seed.

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As always the coach of the century, Pop, defies all the statistics. Remember up 5 with 28s left, chances of losing that were less than .1%

Spurs should be heavily favored for sure. Im fairly confident about pulling a win on Sunday, but the road to the Finals doesn't look too promising if we continue to play like shit.

I hope they guard Carter with a bit more contact and also limit those offensive putbacks from Dalembert/Carter . If Parker has the open lane , then I see he'll drive it instead of shooting his 18ft jump shot. Pop coaches very well at home , I predict we win by 15 .

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

LOL, I still remember before this series started every fucking person on Ticket 760 was calling this series 4-0 Spurs or 4-1 Spurs, and now it could pretty easily be 4-3 Mavs. Honestly, it should already be 4-2 Mavs if not for them missing all those open shots to end Game 1.

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Or 4-1 Spurs if Carter's shot doesn't go in. Sometimes, it only takes a little...

They'll win like 105-101.. Another dogfight..

The way the series is going it looks like mavs in 7 but I still don't see the spurs dropping game 7 @home

The problem of leaving it to a single game is that the wrong player can get a hot hand and can ruin your season. Shouldn't have gotten to this, but a few guys took a few days off in Game 2 and 3, and some other guys are still trying to find their way to the arena. Disappointing, but we're here now. Time to back them up and it will be what it will be.

Honestly, I'm more hopeful than I am confident. I'm inclined to believe that the team with the series' best player wins game 7, but I'm not sure that player will be in a Spurs jersey tomorrow.

I would be confident if this team wouldn't choke all the time.

If the Spurs will lead by 20 in the last 5 minutes then I am sure they'll win, but if they'll lead by 5 with 1 minute to go I am sure they'll give it away.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

The problem of leaving it to a single game is that the wrong player can get a hot hand and can ruin your season. Shouldn't have gotten to this, but a few guys took a few days off in Game 2 and 3, and some other guys are still trying to find their way to the arena. Disappointing, but we're here now. Time to back them up and it will be what it will be.

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That's where learning to make better in-game adjustments will really benefit Pop. It prevents things like that from happening.

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

That's where learning to make better in-game adjustments will really benefit Pop. It prevents things like that from happening.

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Well, the Spurs only have 3 players playing above average basketball right now... "adjustment" sounds like a magical word, but if the players are sucking, then it's just a gimmick.

Manu fouls Dirk Part 2

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

As always the coach of the century, Pop, defies all the statistics. Remember up 5 with 28s left, chances of losing that were less than .1%

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That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

Duncan and Splitter will combine for 50+/25+ tomorrow in a win, book it

Danny Green was shooting well in game 6 and I see that carrying over into game 7.

I just hope Pop lets him play more minutes.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

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It's a real stat. You can look it up.

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

It's a real stat. You can look it up.

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I trust you, but it doesn't seem realistic. Like the odds don't seem like they should be that low. Like it doesn't account for who has the ball or personal takes or something.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

I trust you, but it doesn't seem realistic. Like the odds don't seem like they should be that low. Like it doesn't account for who has the ball or personal takes or something.

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It's based on historical circumstances more than odds. In the history of the NBA, teams have basically never lost when leading by 5 with 28 seconds remaining in the game. The Spurs were the first to do it out of several hundred teams.

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Originally Posted by Horry Hipcheck

It's based on historical circumstances more than odds. In the history of the NBA, teams have basically never lost when leading by 5 with 28 seconds remaining in the game. The Spurs were the first to do it out of several hundred teams.

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So that ignores the fact that Miami had the ball? Makes more sense, like that it includes games where the winning team has the ball and is dribbling it around. I doubt the odds are nearly as bad when the losing team has the ball and is taking it out with anywhere around 28 sec left.

Of course it was an epic fuckup regardless. I just don't think it was 1/1000 or even 1/100.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

So that ignores the fact that Miami had the ball? Makes more sense, like that it includes games where the winning team has the ball and is dribbling it around. I doubt the odds are nearly as bad when the losing team has the ball and is taking it out with anywhere around 28 sec left.

Of course it was an epic fuckup regardless. I just don't think it was 1/1000 or even 1/100.

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If I remember correctly, ESPN found a stat that basically showed that teams leading by 5 with 30 seconds or less remaining in the shot clock era were something insane like 700-0 in those games.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

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I mean the probability of getting a 3, at least 1 missed free throw, and another 3 assuming certain key statistical assumptions that admittedly aren't exactly fulfilled in this case is

.4*(1-.8^2)*.4

I'm on my phone but quick mental math says that is

(4/10)*(36/100)*(4/10) = 576/10000 ~= 1/20 ~= 5%

.1% seems a little low.

I assumed 40% 3 point shooters and 80% free throw shooters.

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Originally Posted by jARS mEsH sEt

I mean the probability of getting a 3, at least 1 missed free throw, and another 3 assuming certain key statistical assumptions that admittedly aren't exactly fulfilled in this case is

.4*(1-.8^2)*.4

I'm on my phone but quick mental math says that is

(4/10)*(36/100)*(4/10) = 576/10000 ~= 1/20 ~= 5%

.1% seems a little low.

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Thanks for doing the math, good job there man. 5% sounds much more logical. 1/20 basically. I mean it's prolly around 3-4%, but 0.1% sounds like there's too many irrelevant, non matching situations tossed in there to bloat the total.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

Thanks for doing the math, good job there man. 5% sounds much more logical. 1/20 basically. I mean it's prolly around 3-4%, but 0.1% sounds like there's too many irrelevant, non matching situations tossed in there to bloat the total.

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i agree, it's totally improbable, but not like 0.1% level improbable.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Well, the Spurs only have 3 players playing above average basketball right now... "adjustment" sounds like a magical word, but if the players are sucking, then it's just a gimmick.

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I knew Parker was playing like dogshit, but those PER numbers. Fucking hell, 13.6 PER. That's not even Belinelli level.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

I knew Parker was playing like dogshit, but those PER numbers. Fucking hell, 13.6 PER. That's not even Belinelli level.

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it's getting to the point where diaw is going to have to, for once, actually be the one to get in parkers face about picking it up

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Originally Posted by Budkin

Yes. It's very rare for a team to lose at home in game 7. Especially the number one seed.

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All the home teams prevailed today and the go to players on their teams stepped up.
Let's see if the Spurs can keep it going on Sun.

If Spurs lose then they didn't deserve to win, I'm cool with that.

That being said, I have confidence the Spurs can win game 7.

After seeing the results of Saturday's Game 7s, I'm expecting a Spurs loss. League doesn't want all home teams winning.

:flag:

The key to this game is defending Ellis (I don't know how but I hope Pop does) and defensive rebounds. Splitter/Diaw will once again be tasked to guard Dirk and so, it is vital that Duncan win the battle for rebounds. From the games I got to watch, it appears Duncan was frequently being pushed out of position for rebounds, either by Dalembert or Blair. For the Spurs to be victorious later, they must prevent Mavs from having 2nd chance opportunities.

Very

Confident that they can win? Absolutely. Confident that they actually will win? Not so much. I'd say the odds are about 55 to 45 in the Spurs' favor.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

:flag:

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

I knew Parker was playing like dogshit, but those PER numbers. Fucking hell, 13.6 PER. That's not even Belinelli level.

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The worst thing is that you've got CoP members on here trashing other players while ignoring their own god's disastrous series. But, but.. he hit a fluke three in game 5. Hero. :cry. Warrior.

Spurs all the way. No Doubt!



https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/i...qL1e99WzsAzbpW

they'll wake up in a playoff elimination game, if not they don't deserve shit anyway

Danny and Marco will own Mavs tonight! GSG!

I expect us to get demolished today. If not, we'll still lose.

Lots of Mavs fans in the building early. They seem pretty confident. Building is generally pretty dead.

I'll be shocked if the Spurs get this one. I can see a game that's fairly tight early, but with the Mavs building a lead I the middle that stays around 6-11, with Spurs fans feeling like just one more run will get them home, only to have the Mavs make 2 or 3 big shots to stretch the lead and end hope. Somehow feels like that kind of day to me.