Are you confident in a game 7 win?

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

LOL, I still remember before this series started every fucking person on Ticket 760 was calling this series 4-0 Spurs or 4-1 Spurs, and now it could pretty easily be 4-3 Mavs. Honestly, it should already be 4-2 Mavs if not for them missing all those open shots to end Game 1.

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Or 4-1 Spurs if Carter's shot doesn't go in. Sometimes, it only takes a little...

They'll win like 105-101.. Another dogfight..

The way the series is going it looks like mavs in 7 but I still don't see the spurs dropping game 7 @home

The problem of leaving it to a single game is that the wrong player can get a hot hand and can ruin your season. Shouldn't have gotten to this, but a few guys took a few days off in Game 2 and 3, and some other guys are still trying to find their way to the arena. Disappointing, but we're here now. Time to back them up and it will be what it will be.

Honestly, I'm more hopeful than I am confident. I'm inclined to believe that the team with the series' best player wins game 7, but I'm not sure that player will be in a Spurs jersey tomorrow.

I would be confident if this team wouldn't choke all the time.

If the Spurs will lead by 20 in the last 5 minutes then I am sure they'll win, but if they'll lead by 5 with 1 minute to go I am sure they'll give it away.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

The problem of leaving it to a single game is that the wrong player can get a hot hand and can ruin your season. Shouldn't have gotten to this, but a few guys took a few days off in Game 2 and 3, and some other guys are still trying to find their way to the arena. Disappointing, but we're here now. Time to back them up and it will be what it will be.

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That's where learning to make better in-game adjustments will really benefit Pop. It prevents things like that from happening.

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

That's where learning to make better in-game adjustments will really benefit Pop. It prevents things like that from happening.

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Well, the Spurs only have 3 players playing above average basketball right now... "adjustment" sounds like a magical word, but if the players are sucking, then it's just a gimmick.

Manu fouls Dirk Part 2

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

As always the coach of the century, Pop, defies all the statistics. Remember up 5 with 28s left, chances of losing that were less than .1%

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That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

Duncan and Splitter will combine for 50+/25+ tomorrow in a win, book it

Danny Green was shooting well in game 6 and I see that carrying over into game 7.

I just hope Pop lets him play more minutes.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

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It's a real stat. You can look it up.

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

It's a real stat. You can look it up.

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I trust you, but it doesn't seem realistic. Like the odds don't seem like they should be that low. Like it doesn't account for who has the ball or personal takes or something.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

I trust you, but it doesn't seem realistic. Like the odds don't seem like they should be that low. Like it doesn't account for who has the ball or personal takes or something.

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It's based on historical circumstances more than odds. In the history of the NBA, teams have basically never lost when leading by 5 with 28 seconds remaining in the game. The Spurs were the first to do it out of several hundred teams.

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Originally Posted by Horry Hipcheck

It's based on historical circumstances more than odds. In the history of the NBA, teams have basically never lost when leading by 5 with 28 seconds remaining in the game. The Spurs were the first to do it out of several hundred teams.

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So that ignores the fact that Miami had the ball? Makes more sense, like that it includes games where the winning team has the ball and is dribbling it around. I doubt the odds are nearly as bad when the losing team has the ball and is taking it out with anywhere around 28 sec left.

Of course it was an epic fuckup regardless. I just don't think it was 1/1000 or even 1/100.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

So that ignores the fact that Miami had the ball? Makes more sense, like that it includes games where the winning team has the ball and is dribbling it around. I doubt the odds are nearly as bad when the losing team has the ball and is taking it out with anywhere around 28 sec left.

Of course it was an epic fuckup regardless. I just don't think it was 1/1000 or even 1/100.

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If I remember correctly, ESPN found a stat that basically showed that teams leading by 5 with 30 seconds or less remaining in the shot clock era were something insane like 700-0 in those games.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

That stat doesn't seem realistic to me since they had the ball. A three, missed free throw, three. . .and it's tied. That can't be just 0.1%

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I mean the probability of getting a 3, at least 1 missed free throw, and another 3 assuming certain key statistical assumptions that admittedly aren't exactly fulfilled in this case is

.4*(1-.8^2)*.4

I'm on my phone but quick mental math says that is

(4/10)*(36/100)*(4/10) = 576/10000 ~= 1/20 ~= 5%

.1% seems a little low.

I assumed 40% 3 point shooters and 80% free throw shooters.

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Originally Posted by jARS mEsH sEt

I mean the probability of getting a 3, at least 1 missed free throw, and another 3 assuming certain key statistical assumptions that admittedly aren't exactly fulfilled in this case is

.4*(1-.8^2)*.4

I'm on my phone but quick mental math says that is

(4/10)*(36/100)*(4/10) = 576/10000 ~= 1/20 ~= 5%

.1% seems a little low.

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Thanks for doing the math, good job there man. 5% sounds much more logical. 1/20 basically. I mean it's prolly around 3-4%, but 0.1% sounds like there's too many irrelevant, non matching situations tossed in there to bloat the total.

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Originally Posted by Kidd K

Thanks for doing the math, good job there man. 5% sounds much more logical. 1/20 basically. I mean it's prolly around 3-4%, but 0.1% sounds like there's too many irrelevant, non matching situations tossed in there to bloat the total.

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i agree, it's totally improbable, but not like 0.1% level improbable.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Well, the Spurs only have 3 players playing above average basketball right now... "adjustment" sounds like a magical word, but if the players are sucking, then it's just a gimmick.

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I knew Parker was playing like dogshit, but those PER numbers. Fucking hell, 13.6 PER. That's not even Belinelli level.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

I knew Parker was playing like dogshit, but those PER numbers. Fucking hell, 13.6 PER. That's not even Belinelli level.

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it's getting to the point where diaw is going to have to, for once, actually be the one to get in parkers face about picking it up

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Originally Posted by Budkin

Yes. It's very rare for a team to lose at home in game 7. Especially the number one seed.

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All the home teams prevailed today and the go to players on their teams stepped up.
Let's see if the Spurs can keep it going on Sun.

If Spurs lose then they didn't deserve to win, I'm cool with that.

That being said, I have confidence the Spurs can win game 7.