Anonymous NBA coach breaks down the WCF

Sounds like Carlisemo

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Originally Posted by Chinook

He might surprise us all by benching Perkins and playing Adams and Collison together. Adams may have decent mobility for a center, but the Thunder aren't going to be mobile enough to stop penetration if they play two fives. Not to mention the Spurs have the size to counter a two-C lineup as it is, an neither Perk nor Adams can space the floor. If Brooks starts them, he makes the Spurs' main burden of keeping Russ and KD out of the paint so much easier.

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You're giving Brooks too much credit tbh.

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Originally Posted by Mugen

I'd say there's a 90% chance Collison starts.

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I agree. If Duncan were out, I'd imagine Pop would start Diaw even though he hates to mess with rotations. Starting Baynes, Ayers, or Bonner would just be too big of a dropoff in this situation.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

My biggest concern is wearing out Tony on the screens. Obviously, if Reggie and Westbrook are out there at the same time, there's not much you can do about it, both are likely going to get screens to drive. That's why I said "to start the game" and mostly when Sefo is on the floor.

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I know. I was saying that I don't think you have much to worry about in that regard. The only way I see Parker guarding Westbrook at the start of the game is if Pop feels like Tony needs to be engaged defensively for some reason. I think Tony will "rest" as much as he can, unless he's playing with someone like Beli who literally can't guard OKC's second-worst perimeter player at all.

The detail on Leonard makes me think it's Jim Boylen

I see a lot of 3 guard play for them, with possibly Collison/Adams manning the paint and Butler/Fisher spacing the floor. Defensively it could spell disaster for them, but they can be physical, and they already know their anchor isn't walking through that door. I'm actually not even sure how Pop defends that lineup. Kawhi/Green/Diaw/Tim and Manu or Parker? If it's closing the game, I see Kawhi/Manu/Tim/Boris/Tony...

There is no way IMO that Brooks doesn't start Perkins. He doesn't have the courage to do so, at least not right away. He will wait until game 3 or 4 to make that move and that's only if things have gone bad.

I think he probably wants Adams to start due to energy/athleticism but we will see.

Their best lineup is without question a small ball lineup.

Russ/Jackson/Fish or Butler or Sef/Durant/Adams.

That's a difficult lineup for the Spurs to guard especially when I think Danny and Kawhi need to be on the floor a lot together for the Spurs to advance. The Thunder aren't stopping anybody this series without Ibaka but they can put a much more potent offensive lineup than either POR/DAL could muster.

It should also be noted that Brooks did sit down Sefo for Jackson in the second half of Game 4(?) of their series against the Griz, when Reggie was having a good game. It's not apples-to-apples, because Sefo will likely be the designated defender on Tony, but I feel Scotty does feel he's an expendable guy if they need more offense.

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Originally Posted by Mugen

Their best lineup is without question a small ball lineup.

Russ/Jackson/Fish or Butler or Sef/Durant/Adams.

That's a difficult lineup for the Spurs to guard especially when I think Danny and Kawhi need to be on the floor a lot together for the Spurs to advance. The Thunder aren't stopping anybody this series without Ibaka but they can put a much more potent offensive lineup than either POR/DAL could muster.

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Would you put Diaw on Reggie Jackson against that lineup?....

My best guess, is that we see Westbrook/Reggie/Caron/Durant/Adams or Collison the majority of the time.

If that is the case, assuming TP is good to go, we see TP/Danny/Manu/Kawhi/Tim or Tiago. At least I hope.

TP on Westbrook, Danny on Reggie, Manu on Caron, Kawhi on Durant, Big on Adams/Collison. That allows the Spurs to defend every spot pretty well and have plenty of ball handling/scoring.

This just smells like a Diaw series to me. He should be more than capable of guarding Fisher or Butler, and there's no one on OKC that can guard Boris. I think he gets a good deal of minutes at the four and even some at the five.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

My best guess, is that we see Westbrook/Reggie/Caron/Durant/Adams or Collison the majority of the time.

If that is the case, assuming TP is good to go, we see TP/Danny/Manu/Kawhi/Tim or Tiago. At least I hope.

TP on Westbrook, Danny on Reggie, Manu on Caron, Kawhi on Durant, Big on Adams/Collison. That allows the Spurs to defend every spot pretty well and have plenty of ball handling/scoring.

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I'm with you, although thinking offensively, I would like to crowbar in Diaw somehow alongside a big. I think it would be a huge matchup plus for us on offense.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

This just smells like a Diaw series to me. He should be more than capable of guarding Fisher or Butler, and there's no one on OKC that can guard Boris. I think he gets a good deal of minutes at the four and even some at the five.

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We'll see Boris checking KD at times as well.

mchale is out.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

This just smells like a Diaw series to me. He should be more than capable of guarding Fisher or Butler, and there's no one on OKC that can guard Boris. I think he gets a good deal of minutes at the four and even some at the five.

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I can even see him opening up the game for Kawhi... Adams would work on TD, but if the Spurs have Diaw and Kawhi, who does Durant guard? Either one can basically post up and make them pay... I think it's a huge bonus to counter their small ball.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Would you put Diaw on Reggie Jackson against that lineup?....

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Ideally, I'd want the Spurs to go with TP/Manu/Green/Leonard/TD to counter that lineup.

If Boris played, I'd prob put him on Fish/Sef/or Butler.

If Boris isn't abusing KD or whoever is guarding him on the post, I want a short leash on him in favor of Green in this series.

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Originally Posted by Seventyniner

Maybe he has Kawhi confused with all the other Spurs who like to pull up for 3 on the break: Green, Manu, Belinelli, Mills, and of course Neal from last year.

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I'm thinking the coach was thinking about Green in particular, since that's a completely new element to Danny's game this season. It also wouldn't be the first time someone's taken positive things about Green and misguidedly attributed them to Leonard.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I can even see him opening up the game for Kawhi... Adams would work on TD, but if the Spurs have Diaw and Kawhi, who does Durant guard? Either one can basically post up and make them pay... I think it's a huge bonus to counter their small ball.

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For Kawhi, or for Tiago? I can't see Leonard not starting, nor can I see Diaw playing the three in the SL.

Really want Spurs to post up Durant as much as possible

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Originally Posted by Chinook

For Kawhi, or for Tiago? I can't see Leonard not starting, nor can I see Diaw playing the three in the SL.

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For Kawhi. If Adams check TD, I would suspect Scotty would put KD on Boris quickly. None of the others guys can defend him in the post. That opens up Kawhi posting up.
In a way, the Spurs need to use some of their size to punish OKC going small. I think the tools are there to do it.

EDIT: sorry missed the part about the SL. I'm talking generally. I don't think OKC will not start Perkins either, so I don't see that lineup from OKC starting.

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Originally Posted by ace3g

Really want Spurs to post up Durant as much as possible

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It's the best way to tire a player out, especially a skinny one like KD.

At the end of the day, the key for the Spurs (like every other series) is limiting turnovers and rebounding.

If they don't give up easy looks to the Thunder, San Antonio will get better shots over the course of a game/series ESPECIALLY without Serge.

Just as simple as that IMO....

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Originally Posted by ElNono

For Kawhi. If Adams check TD, I would suspect Scotty would put KD on Boris quickly. None of the others guys can defend him in the post. That opens up Kawhi posting up.
In a way, the Spurs need to use some of their size to punish OKC going small. I think the tools are there to do it.

EDIT: sorry missed the part about the SL. I'm talking generally. I don't think OKC will not start Perkins either, so I don't see that lineup from OKC starting.

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Sure, I can see Diaw getting major minutes when OKC goes small, which is why I said above that it smells like a Diaw series. But I don't think Pop would play Diaw instead of Leonard at any point when Durant is on the floor unless Kawhi had foul trouble. I know people like the put Durant and James in the same category, but I think they're completely different players. Lebron is a forward whereas KD is really just a tall guard. I don't see Diaw being able to guard Durant all. Instead, I feel Boris' value lies in his ability to defend players like Butler and Fisher while also being able to switch PnRs. Then, on offense, he can abuse whoever the Thunder put on him.

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Originally Posted by Mugen

At the end of the day, the key for the Spurs (like every other series) is limiting turnovers and rebounding.

If they don't give up easy looks to the Thunder, San Antonio will get better shots over the course of a game/series ESPECIALLY without Serge.

Just as simple as that IMO....

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Exactly. That's pretty much what I said in one of the other billion defense threads. The Spurs just need to play honest positional defense with minimal help except from the bigs in the paint. The Thunder don't really have an offense against which the Spurs can game-plan. They simply need to do their best to make OKC inefficient and outscore them on the other end.