Keys to Victory Against the Thunder in the WCF

-Cut Turnovers, Maximize Free Throws-The Spurs average just 11.9 turnovers per game this post season (2nd to Miami among remaining teams) that's despite having the most possessions per game. Keeping turnovers low, specifically turnover that leads to transition opportunities is crucial against OKC.

The Spurs were the 3rd best defensive team in both the regular and now the post season in terms of Defensive Rtg. Forcing teams to score in the half court bodes well for the Spurs.

The added bonus for taking care of the ball is extra scoring opportunities, even if the Spurs give up offensive rebounds on the other end, cutting turnovers helps even the disparity in field goal attempts.


The Spurs only shoot 23 FTs a game this post season, the 2nd worst of the remaining teams. Hitting only 73% isn't going to cut it.

If the Spurs were to take 25 foul shots they'd convert on only 18 (on average) of them compared to Oklahoma City which would hit about 21 of the 25.

San Antonio can't shoot that poorly, given how few opportunities they get. The Thunder (+4 attempts per game) gets to the line far more often. Even if they aren't hitting from 3 they are able to keep games close by converting.



Challenging Their Defense-Parker's play is obviously key to how OKC chooses to defend the Spurs. If Westbrook can't handle Parker then Brooks would need to play Sefolsha (who is a usually benign offensively) especially late in games. If Westbrook can handle, then OKC may play Jackson beside him. Though that may not be quite as dangerous as it sounds with Durant sharing the floor as well. Jackson would likely spend the majority of the time off ball and has been a poor 3pt shooter (save for 13 games this postseason)

Jackson has had big games against the Spurs this season. Stopping him is a must. Duncan and or Splitter, will almost always be on the floor for rim protection. Danny Green and Patty Mills will likely to see time defending him on the wing. Mills isn’t a great defender but uses his speed to hassle opposing guards. Greens length and lateral quickness should definitely bother him as well.

Butler usurped Lamb in their rotation, could see more minutes with Durant shifting to PF. He has reinvented his game as spot up shooter, despite that he has struggled.
His percentages from the field dropped from 40% to 30% in the postseason, along with his minutes 27 to 24 mpg. His 3pt shooting has also dipped fro 44% to 38 % 3pt.


If the Thunder opt to go small Diaw's versatility could be valuable. He could allow the Spurs stay big with Parker-Manu-Leonard and Duncan while hiding out on Butler (who attempts less than half of his shots from inside of the paint)
This could allow the Spurs to attack Butler on the offensive end in the post or even Durant if he is matched up with Diaw.

If the Thunder attempt to trap Parker Diaw could be valuable in that regard, Spotting up at the 3pt line after setting a screen gives Parker an easy outlet who can knock down an outside shot or drive to score or kick out to a shooter.


If Duncan is playing particularly well OKC may be compelled to keep Perkins on the floor late, despite him being one of the worst offensive Centers in the NBA. (Offensive Rtg of 82, 100 in the postseason) Duncan can help off him and live with the results.

This time around Ibaka absence is massive, The Spurs struggled getting anything easy when he was on the floor and he seemed to specifically effect Duncan, Splitter, Diaw and Parker's game. The Spurs should shoot much better in the painted area, while Collision is mobile enough to cut off drives and take charges, He isn't great on the glass and at 6'9 could struggle defending Duncan, Diaw or even Splitter in the post.

Duncan still may not be able to effectively score in the post against Perkins but he could be in foul trouble with extended minutes leading to more favorable match ups with Collison and Adams.


Team Defense-The Spurs can live with Westbrook or Durant having a big game but can't allow both to have big games at the same time. Westbrook has a tendency to get trigger happy The Spurs can live him shooting 20+ times so long as Durant doesn't take nearly as many shots.

Durant’s efficiency as a scoring is stellar: but can be passive at times and defer to Westbrook. If the Spurs can get away with hassling Durant and taking away some of his free throw opportunities the Spurs stand a chance of at least containing him.

The Thunders big man rotation (Ibaka, Perkins, Collison and Adams) averaged 25.1 ppg in the regular season and 21 ppg this post season. Ibaka accounted for 15.5 ppg and 12.2 in the playoffs.

If Brooks starts Collison and Perkins then could be significantly easier to defense. Ibaka was the 3rd leading scorer at 12ppg and an elite mid range shooter. Collison has a mid range shot but isn't nearly as good. Splitter should sag off
and work with Duncan to pack the paint and attempt to cut off drives (especially from Westbrook and Jackson) Westbrook had Ibaka as escape if his drives couldn't get him a clean look at the basket. The Spurs will live with the results of any open Collision/Adams jumpers. Green will have a big task of hassling Westbrook but has had plenty of success against him.


Westbrook (last 7 meetings Vs the Spurs)-39% FG, 83% FT (6 FTA per game), 22.2 PPG, 20.7 FGA (one of those games Green missed with a broken finger, a 27 point outing for WB)



Sharing The Offensive Load -Unlike the Thunder, who rely primarily on Durant and Westbrook to carry the offense with Ibaka and Jackson chipping in, The Spurs have more balance on the offensive end.

With Parkers’ recent injury, uncertainty, and Manu’s inconsistent play the Spurs are going to need additional help offensively to beat the Thunder. Duncan has played well against the Thunder, but can’t be counted on to be more than a second option, particularly when being guarded by Perkins.

Duncan (Last 8 Games VS. OKC, following the 2012 WCF)- 31 MPG, 16 ppg, 43.3%, 7.8 RPG, 1.75 BPG

Leonard has had strong games against the Thunder
(Since the '12 WCF)

Leonard-31.8 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 43% FG 5.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.8 SPG, 2.6 PF

In addition to being counted on to defend Durant, his offense will be crucial to diversifying the offensive attack. He will likely play significantly more minutes than the 1^st two rounds

Per 36 Minutes-52.5 % FG, 41% 3PT, 14 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.7 PFPG

If the Big 4 can average 65 ppg (approximately 16 per player, slightly better than their current playoff output of 62 per game) with contributions from Diaw, Belinelli, Mills and Splitter, the Spurs willbe much more difficult to defend without being able to hone in on a specific player.



Bench Vs Bench

Ibaka’s injury is a kick to the gut for the Thunders rotation. Perkins can’t be relied upon to play major minutes without negative consequences. Teams ignore him offensively and there are concerns with foul trouble.

Collision is a very good defender but not as good of a rim protector nor is he as good of an offensive threat. Adams will possibly see a bigger minute share but has a sky high foul rate and also isn’t much of an factor on offense.

The Thunder may opt to go small rather than add a fourth big into the rotation (Thabeet or even Jones III) Durant could see additional time at PF.


Mills and Belinelli improved upon their performances between the first and second rounds. The duo has combined for roughly 15ppg in 32 mpg. Belinelli is hitting nearly 48% of his 3’s while Mills is shooting 37% from down town.

Manu’s inconsistency has been somewhat troubling against Dallas he played particularly well but struggled against Portland. His 3pt shooting has dipped to 30% while hitting only 39% of his overall shots. The Thunders defense has been rather sporadic post all-star break and it isn’t likely be be anymore consistent without Ibaka and Collisions timely rotations shifting into the starting lineup.

Compared to our 2012 Bench of Neal-Ginobili-Jackson-Splitter this incarnation appears to be better.

Mills is having a career year and is excellent offensive weapon off the bench. He can score in p&R and is an excellent spot up shooter. Belinelli is a lethal shooter who can create some and isn't limited to being a spot up shooter. Manu likely won't reach the level he played with in 2012 but has more help and doesn't have to worry about Ibaka at the rim. He shouldn't be counted upon to carry the Spurs offensive load. Diaw can do a little bit of everything from 3pt shooting to drives and post ups. He is an excellent passer and the Spurs offense seems to be at its best when he is on the floor (he is 2nd in post season net rating with a +19)

Prediction Spurs in 6 games

Good writeup :tu

Great work. Thanks.

Great analysis

Excellent, thanks for sharing.

One thing you did not mention was one of the most glaring: Ibaka being the key to the Thunder's pick and roll trick defense.


By that, I mean the defensive system that changed the series in 2012, and which I think led to the back-door sweep, was switching with ibaka on the pick and roll.

Before they started switching on the pick and roll, the Spurs were simply killing them with the pick and roll. Once they changed to switching, our pick and roll was completely shut down. The reason it worked so well is because they went small except Ibaka and durant. Splitter was unable to take advantage of the small guarding him, and everyone who got switched onto parker, including Ibaka, could keep him from getting to the rim.

However, now, none of the other bigs (other than durant) is fast enough to switch onto parker and still defend him effectively. I am interested to see if they can counter our pick and roll with other wrinkles sufficiently to survive. Otherwise, the pick and roll may prove to be as effective the whole series as it was the first two games of the WCF 2012 (which the spurs won.)

Related to your thought on free throws, expect that disadvantage to continue. The Spurs don't have enough guys that throw themselves at the rim successfully (like westbrook and durant) to draw fouls, and certainly not as successfully. Manu and tony can do it, but that is mostly it and they will not be able to do so with sefalosha on one of them. I think how well tony is able to deal with sefalosha's defense will be important.

I also don't think you gave enough thought to how effective Perk is at stopping tim. Perk makes tim seriously struggle.

I am curious about the lineups when they go small since their best lineup is with Ibaka as the big. I expect them to go small whenever tim is off the court; if they dare to go small when tim is on the court, durant will get punished in the post.

thanks :tu

Yeah, Splitter letting Fish guard him and Boris turning into ultra passive Diaw were huge in the Spurs downfall in 2012. I think they're both better than their 2012 versions.

If Boris can do work in the post AND have some solid minutes on Durant, that'd be huge as well.

With the Ibaka injury, the Spurs' margin for error is a lot bigger than it was before and bigger than what OKC currently has. But, the Thunder are still a very, very dangerous team capable of winning this series. Even in their current incarnation, they're miles better than Portland or Dallas tbh......

Thunder lost their defensive backbone they gotta go small and just try to out score spurs now

Thanks for the write-up!

Agree with Mugen that this is still a very tough series even without Ibaka. The Spurs can't afford to let up, but it sounds like they are well-prepared. Get this ish done.

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Originally Posted by slick'81

Thunder lost their defensive backbone they gotta go small and just try to out score spurs now

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Thing is some games that might work! Some it might not. The refs calling touch fouls on our guys when Durant barrels into you though will suck, guaranteed. I expect him to get to the line alot in this series, which is my main worry.

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Originally Posted by timtonymanu

Thanks for the write-up!

Agree with Mugen that this is still a very tough series even without Ibaka. The Spurs can't afford to let up, but it sounds like they are well-prepared. Get this ish done.

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If they get this done I feel they will win the title this year! They have to remain radar locked on this series now, this is do or die for them.

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Originally Posted by slick'81

Thunder lost their defensive backbone they gotta go small and just try to out score spurs now

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luckily we have Diaw who should easily be able Butler and post him up on the other end. The biggest part of Ibakas absence is that they really only have defensive bigs remaining. No two way players that can effectively contribute consistently on both sides.

Do these streaks continue tonight? I hope so.

From Elias: The Spurs have won 9 straight Game 1s, the 5th longest streak in NBA history and longest since the Bulls tied the record by winning 11 straight spanning 1996-98. [+]
Most Consecutive Game 1 Wins - NBA History1996-98 Bulls 11
1985-87 Celtics 11
1986-88 Lakers 10
1949-52 Lakers 10
2012-14 Spurs 9 *
* Active Streak
Close [X]
The Thunder are 0-3 in Game 1s on the road since moving to Oklahoma City (lost 10 straight dating back to when they were the Seattle SuperSonics). [+]

Good read!!! Thanks cd021 !

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Originally Posted by cd021

If Brooks starts Collison and Perkins then could be significantly easier to defense.

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That's why OKC'll go small most of games. I expect Pop doesn't assume that he needs to play small ball to adjust to OKC and sit Splitter long minutes.
I know, Duncan-Diaw is an efficient combo, but Pop really can force Brooks to play two bigs with Tim and Tiago on the floor, and Collinson-Perkins or Collinson-Adams will kill their offensive tempo.

I will just add that the Thunder and Heat are the teams most adept at closing-out quarters. OKC has multiple methods of creating changes-of-possession in addition to drawing fouls. One particular trick the Spurs will need to be aware of is pushing the screener into the defender going over the top of ball screens, thus drawing an offensive foul for a moving screen. Durant especially likes to do this on baseline and sideline out of-bounds plays. Westbrook, Fish and even Jackson are skilled at exaggerating the contact. Timmy has been nailed for a foul a couple of times with this well-timed and coordinated maneuver.

To counter, the Spurs need to be just as focused with their execution at end-of-quarter possessions and drawing fouls at both ends.

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Originally Posted by Solid D

I will just add that the Thunder and Heat are the teams most adept at closing-out quarters. OKC has multiple methods of creating changes-of-possession in addition to drawing fouls. One particular trick the Spurs will need to be aware of is pushing the screener into the defender going over the top of ball screens, thus drawing an offensive foul for a moving screen. Durant especially likes to do this on baseline and sideline out of-bounds plays. Westbrook, Fish and even Jackson are skilled at exaggerating the contact. Timmy has been nailed for a foul a couple of times with this well-timed and coordinated maneuver.

To counter, the Spurs need to be just as focused with their execution at end-of-quarter possessions and drawing fouls at both ends.

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Durrant is great at drawing fouls. Spurs need to duplicate what Indy did yesterday in limiting a Miami team who lives at the FT line from getting any calls. Never thought I'd see an Indy team score 19 more points at the stripe than Miami, but it happened. Spurs need to be the more aggressive team, just as Indy was.

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Originally Posted by Jimcs50

Durrant is great at drawing fouls. Spurs need to duplicate what Indy did yesterday in limiting a Miami team who lives at the FT line from getting any calls. Never thought I'd see an Indy team score 19 more points at the stripe than Miami, but it happened. Spurs need to be the more aggressive team, just as Indy was.

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Yeah. It's so important for both Indy and SA to not give away home wins. Home, where calls tend to be more favorable.

One other thing...OKC & Westbrook are very accomplished at watching for the 6-minute and 3-minute mark in each quarter. That's when mandatory (TV) timeouts get called at play stoppages...with 1 extra one in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Especially when pace is fast, Westbrook frequently goes out of his way to draw fouls at these points in the game to catch his breath, sometimes without incurring a charged timeout to his team.
Other teams do this, too but Westbrook does it as standard practice.

Believe

:lol

Key to victory: Score more points than the Thunder.

All signs point toward a Spurs win in Game 1. Let's go get it!

GO SPURS GO!!!!!

Three point shooting from Green, Kawhi, Bellineli, Mills, and Manu. They don't all have to be on fire, but a combination of them need to hit a high percentage.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Believe

:lol

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Amen!!! :flag:

Score more points than the opposing team.

With I aka out the paint will be more open. Manu should drive every time and that should open things up alas against Portland.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Believe

:lol

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1.

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Originally Posted by cd021

-Cut Turnovers

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If the Spurs can limit turnovers to their season averages, they'll win.

OKC scored 30 points on 19 Spurs turnovers in the most recent regular season game. Too many turnovers and many of them live ball turnovers. Got to make them execute their half court offense.

Great write-up, btw.

Given their recent history against the Thunder, the loss of Ibaka and the fact that they haven't played in five days and won't play for four after game 2, the biggest key, outside of Parker's health obviously, is simply being up 2-1 after three games. They need this both for their psyche/confidence and for fatigue purposes, because after game 3, it's every other day until the end.

I presume they know this, which is why I expect a win tonight (law of averages is also on their side as is the fact that the clueless Brooks will probably be in mad scientist mode with the rotation), aided by some serious progression to the mean for Ginobili, who's not only due, but knows that with Parker's health iffy, he's more than likely got to have a big game.

I don't think Parker is as iffy as everyone thinks he is.....

Good defense, hold OKC to less than 90, make 3 pointers. Shut down Westbrook or Durant, make the other one beat you. Foul hard, get offensive rebounds. Easy peasy....

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

If the Spurs can limit turnovers to their season averages, they'll win.

OKC scored 30 points on 19 Spurs turnovers in the most recent regular season game. Too many turnovers and many of them live ball turnovers. Got to make them execute their half court offense.

Great write-up, btw.

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Tonight the Spurs played pretty damn efficiently (28 asts. to 9 turnovers) only allowed 13 transition points and scored 21 points in the fast break themselves. Spurs also held the edge on the glass and had only 1 fewer offensive rebound. OKC has had a long history with excessive turnovers (16 tonight). Glad to see that trend continue.

Durant Westbrook and Jackson took 63% of their shots for 66 points.