Analysis of Spurs Defense against Miami (2014 Finals)

Obviously, the games haven't been played yet. I am in the process of making the template for the Finals (which will hopefully be more automated and therefore easier to compile after each game). I wanted to know if any posters had any a priori suggestions for things they'd like me to focus on. Obviously, I plan to cover the defense against the Heatles, and perhaps players like Allen, Lewis or others who provide a lot of scoring on a game-by-game basis. But I also like adding a couple of additional features to my breakdowns (especially with the longer turnarounds between games). For the WCF, I covered three-point close-outs and Durant's Game Two defense. I don't necessarily want to do those again.

So yeah, ideas? PnR defense, maybe? Or post defense? Let me know. I'll probably see how Game One goes and come up with some features afterwards, but it's always nice to know what foci you have before you actually start taking data. More statistically honest that way.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Obviously, the games haven't been played yet. I am in the process of making the template for the Finals (which will hopefully be more automated and therefore easier to compile after each game). I wanted to know if any posters had any a priori suggestions for things they'd like me to focus on. Obviously, I plan to cover the defense against the Heatles, and perhaps players like Allen, Lewis or others who provide a lot of scoring on a game-by-game basis. But I also like adding a couple of additional features to my breakdowns (especially with the longer turnarounds between games). For the WCF, I covered three-point close-outs and Durant's Game Two defense. I don't necessarily want to do those again.

So yeah, ideas? PnR defense, maybe? Or post defense? Let me know. I'll probably see how Game One goes and come up with some features afterwards, but it's always nice to know what foci you have before you actually start taking data. More statistically honest that way.

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How about second chance opportunities, which was a fatal factor for us in the closing moments of Game 6 last year?

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Originally Posted by SpurPadre

How about second chance opportunities, which was a fatal factor for us in the closing moments of Game 6 last year?

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That's an idea, as is fast-break points, since that's always something to watch out for against Miami. Thanks for the input. :toast

Right now, I'm thinking I want to do two a priori, running, features (essentially the ones I am currently asking after suggestions for) and one or two a posteriori features that I decide to look at on a game-by-game basis.

Also, feel free to post alternative defensive stats this time, people. I believe that happened only once in the OKC thread. I don't see anything wrong with competing analyses in this thread. I'm not doing these write-ups to try to dominate the discussion. This thread is for all points of view.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

That's an idea, as is fast-break points, since that's always something to watch out for against Miami. Thanks for the input. :toast

Right now, I'm thinking I want to do two a priori, running, features (essentially the ones I am currently asking after suggestions for) and one or two a posteriori features that I decide to look at on a game-by-game basis.

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Anything you can provide in these areas is most appreciated and definitely adds to the respectability of this board. :tu

I'm most interested in the shots we "give" to Bron and those he takes, and to some degree Wade as well since he doesn't shoot from distance. There was a lot of talk last year about how we "dared" Bron to shoot from midrange and out and how he utterly failed until game 7, but I'd like to see the numbers game by game, and the adjustments around those numbers.

:tu

Any decisions on what you are going look at?

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Originally Posted by Nathan89

Any decisions on what you are going look at?

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Don't want to reveal quite yet. Still thinking about how to format things.

I'm wondering if the Spurs would employ a defense similar to what they did to Nash/Stoudemire between 2004-2008: Let Stoudemire go off and keep Nash/Marion/Marbury and others in check. Not that I'm comparing Stoudemire to Lebron, but you get the idea.

I'm mostly interested in Wade, if you start letting him score you're really facing an uphill battle...

Points off turnovers, split into: fastbreak, motion (play doesn't stop but it's not a fastbreak) and halfcourt (play is stopped for whatever reason and an inbound pass occurs).

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Originally Posted by will_spurs

Points off turnovers, split into: fastbreak, motion (play doesn't stop but it's not a fastbreak) and halfcourt (play is stopped for whatever reason and an inbound pass occurs).

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Sorry that I missed this post until now. I didn't really include that in my breakdown. Good news is that Coach Nick took care of that for me.

tl;dr: Charts are your friends. Also check the "general takeaways" section.

All right, guys. Here’s my breakdown for Game One of the Finals. For anyone who didn’t read my similar thread for the WCF, this is just a thread where I post stats charting covering individual defensive possessions of Spurs defenders on their opponents, essentially leading up to PPP (points per possession) allowed. These are home-grown stats, meaning I collected them from watching the games myself. I don’t use the same standards to assign credit/blame on possessions as many other people do; therefore, my numbers will almost certainly differ from other sources. Feel free to post alternative numbers, and to ask for clarification at any point.

My method for writing these breakdowns has changed since the last series. The biggest difference is that I am now charting EVERY Spurs defensive possession for each game, as opposed to the last series, where I just charted the possessions of the Thunder’s Big Four. I hope that my doing so will allow for us to see a more-complete picture of how each Spur impacts the game on that end. I am also incorporating a second set of stats for each of the Heat’s Big Three covering where they attacked from for each possession they ended. If that sounds confusing, it will hopefully make more sense after we get to the first example.

Total Defensive Stats:

Game 1	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	13	6	5	2	1	17	1.307692
Leonard	14	6	4	2	3	15	1.071429
Splitter	12	3	7	1	2	7	0.583333
Parker	8	4	3	1	1	9	1.125
Green	17	3	8	2	4	11	0.647059
Diaw	12	5	4	1	2	14	1.166667
Mills	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	16	5	8	2	3	10	0.625
Belinelli	6	4	2	0	0	9	1.5
Total	99	37	41	11	16	95	0.959596

I’ll talk about my general thoughts later in the post. But damn, Green and Manu did work defensively. Splitter was pretty amazing, too, despite lapsing a few times on Bosh.


Numbers Against Key Heat Players:

James	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Leonard	9	4	2	2	2	10	1.111111
Splitter	3	0	2	0	1	0	0
Green	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.666667
Diaw	7	4	2	1	0	11	1.571429
Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	24	9	8	4	4	25	1.041667
Defender	Spot	Result	Points		Continued from previous column...
Leonard	Break	M	2		Diaw	Break	M	2
Leonard	Block	M	2		Ginobili	Wing	F	N/A
Leonard	Block	TO	0		Leonard	Corner	F	N/A
Leonard	Wing	M	2		Green	S. Corner	TO	0
Leonard	Wing	F	1		Belinelli	Block	M	2
Green	Elbow	X	0		Diaw	Corner	T	3
Diaw	Wing	X	0		Leonard	Break	X	0
Splitter	Rim	X	0		Belinelli	Wing	X	0
Diaw	Wing	X	0		Green	Break	F	2
Leonard	Wing	TO	0		Leonard	Wing	T	3
Diaw	Wing	M	2		Leonard	Corner	X	0
Diaw	Wing	F	2		Diaw	Corner	X	0
Continued in the next column...					Diaw	Wing	M	2

Diaw struggled to defend James mainly because Lebron started attacking Diaw from outside the three-point line on each possession they were matched up. That meant that the help had to come sooner and that the helper had to move farther out. That was fine when Splitter was the center, as he was very much able to stay with James and waste two of his shots at the rim. But if Duncan is the last line of defense, James will be able to score on Diaw any time he wants to.

In general, James liked to attack from the wing/elbow area, so him starting away from the basket wasn’t exclusive to Diaw’s possessions at all. But he seemed more inclined to try to overpower Leonard and Green than he was Diaw. This didn’t work all that well for him, because, as I said, it’s much easier for the Spurs’ defense to collapse on James if his man can stay with him into the paint.

I’d suggest Pop only play Diaw on James if Splitter is in for Duncan. The relative lack of mobility of a Diaw/Duncan small-ball front court is a pretty big weakness.

Wade	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Leonard	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Splitter	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Green	4	1	1	1	1	4	1
Diaw	2	0	1	0	1	0	0
Ginobili	6	3	3	0	0	6	1
Belinelli	2	2	0	0	0	5	2.5
Total	21	8	10	2	2	19	0.904762
Defender	Spot	Result	Points
Green	Break	TO	0		Green	Top	X	0
Green	Block	X	0		Green	Rim	M	2
Splitter	Elbow	X	0		Belinelli	Wing	T	3
Ginobili	Corner	M	2		Parket	FT Line	X	0
Ginobili	Elbow	X	0		Diaw	S. Corner	TO	0
Ginobili	Block	M	2		Ginobili	Wing	X	0
Parker	Corner	M	2		Diaw	S. Corner	X	0
Green	Corner	F	2		Ginobili	FT Line	M	2
Green	Block	TO	0		Ginobili	Key	X	0
Belinelli	Elbow	M	2		Ginobili	FT Line	X	0
Ginobili	Elbow	M	2		Leonard	Corner	X	0

Obviously, it’s too early to tell which wing defender will be the best Wade stopper. Wade saw a variety of defenders and had mixed results against all but Beli. I like the way that he and Manu compete against each other, so I’m fine with Ginobili getting the nod when he’s out there. Green got off to a better start against Wade than he did in Game One last year. We’ll see if that continues. Also, Wade better be able to roast Diaw in subsequent games, or else the Heat have no chance to overcoming the Spurs.

Bosh	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Defender	Spot	Result	Points
Duncan	4	2	1	1	1	6	1.5		Splitter	Wing	M	2
Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Leonard	Corner	T	3
Splitter	4	3	0	0	1	7	1.75		Splitter	Corner	T	3
Parker	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ginobili	FT Line	X	0
Green	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Duncan	Wing	X	0
Diaw	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Duncan	Wing	M	2
Ginobili	1	0	1	1	0	0	0		Diaw	Elbow	X	0
									Splitter	Corner	TO	0
Total	13	7	4	2	2	18	1.384615		Splitter	FT Line	M	2
									Ginobili	Elbow	F	N/A
									Duncan	Corner	TO	0
									Green	Block	M	2
									Duncan	Wing	T	4
									Parker	S. Corner	X	0

The Spurs need to go ahead and close hard on Bosh pretty much every time. Chris’ three makes came off soft-closes by Leonard, Splitter and Duncan, including a four-point play on Tim’s close. His only miss from three came on Tim’s hard-close. I don’t know why the Spurs took the ElNono approach in Game One, but let’s hope they don’t do it again.

Allen	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.5
Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
Parker	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Green	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5
Mills	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	4	1	3	0	0	2	0.5
Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	13	6	6	1	0	16	1.230769

The fact that the Spurs gave up 16 points to Allen isn’t as concerning as the fact that they gave him 13 possessions. Ginobili in particular benefitted from being the “defender” during three no-close misses. Belinelli got the benefit of a miss as well. Green himself didn’t really get lucky with Allen. Ray only took two shots in the second half when Danny was on him. The first was a drive where Ray beat him to the middle but missed after Tim pressured the shot. The second miss was the result of Green closing hard on Allen, forcing him to reset. Ray then tried to shoot the three again, but Danny had recovered from his fly-by and pestered Allen into the miss at preserved the Spurs’ 99-95 lead.

How the Spurs guard Allen going forward is a topic for discussion. The most important thing a defender needs to do in order to check Allen is stay with him and not allow clean shots. Ideally, this would be a match-up that’d work for Mills, but he got wasted on a screen the only time he got the assignment. I’d like a bigger sample size before judging that strategy. The Spurs had a level of success switching screens, but with Ray being much improved inside the arc, he can make a defender pay for closing out of control, which happened a couple of times.

Lewis	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5
Splitter	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
Parker	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
Green	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
Diaw	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	10	4	6	0	0	10	1

I probably won’t cover Lewis every game, but I thought he did enough to talk about in this breakdown. Splitter did fine on him, but everyone else has to make sure to get their closes right.

General Takeaways:

-Danny Green’s rotations were exceptional in Game One. He sank into the lane to force five misses (two on Chalmers, two on Lewis and his block on Andersen). He collected two steals by jumping passes in the paint, in addition to forcing an additional turnover after sinking to the baseline to help out Leonard on James. Lebron couldn’t complete the Hammer play because Danny took away the passing angle. From a team-defensive perspective, this was the best game I’d seen Green play.

-Manu was a pest on defense. He forced three turnovers by collecting drawing two offensive fouls and collecting a steal. (The box score credits him with two steals, but I gave his first one to Leonard since Kawhi blocked James’ view.) As I said above, his numbers are helped by Allen going cold for a stretch. But in a way that’s better, since I think Manu can repeat this level of defensive performance.

-Duncan may well struggle defensively in this series. He definitely didn’t start off on the right foot in Game One, if his PPP allowed is any indication. The reasons behind this are well established. Tim is elite when he can stay in the pain and protect the rim. He’s poor when he has to leave the paint to hedge on PnRs or close out on shooters. This wasn’t like some the previous games in the post-season where Duncan was consistently inadequate. The Heat allowed Tim to stay in his comfort zone quite a bit, and he rarely failed when he was there. But I think it’s just going to get tougher for him as the series goes on.

-Parker, Diaw and Leonard each put up an above-average PPP allowed (which is a negative thing). For the latter two, the reason for that is the best player who’s ever lived. They can get a break for that . In Parker’s case, it really wasn’t anything he did. He got scored on once each by four different players. I’d caution against assuming Tony got beaten or anything like that.

-It’s kind of worrisome that the Spurs actually had a pretty strong defensive performance against the Heat and still struggled to put the game away. I know about the Spurs’ turnovers, and I do think it could all end up being a wash. But the Heat missed shots they should have made, and they probably will make tomorrow or when the series shifts to Miami. There are a couple of tweaks Pop can make to improve the numbers, but they wouldn’t move the needle that much. This is going to be a high-scoring series.


All right. I know this was a REALLY long post. I hope some of you managed to stick with me for this long. Feedback is appreciated. If you have any questions/challenges, let me know.

That backup backcourt is just as terrible as I said it was a long time ago defensively, they get consistently schooled, if they resign Mills it'll be a big blunder...

Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...

Boris suffered from the new defensive strategy on Lebron, if he has to play him closer than he's making him a driver... Not sure what the logic Pop is using there... Sure he doesn't want a game 7 repeat but the 15 min Boris is on Lebron he should simply be asked to sit back and prevent him from driving...

I wouldn't mind more Boris on Wade with Green on Lebron instead tbh, especially if Pop doesn't want to leave Lebron much room to shoot...

Thanks for this.
Regarding Parker defence - could it be because of bad ankle?

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Originally Posted by ata

Thanks for this.
Regarding Parker defence - could it be because of bad ankle?

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I think Parker was fine. He didn't really play badly. He just sort of got unlucky to be on players who happened to score. His numbers look bad, but really he only got scored on four times.

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Originally Posted by Baam

That backup backcourt is just as terrible as I said it was a long time ago defensively, they get consistently schooled, if they resign Mills it'll be a big blunder...

Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...

Boris suffered from the new defensive strategy on Lebron, if he has to play him closer than he's making him a driver... Not sure what the logic Pop is using there... Sure he doesn't want a game 7 repeat but the 15 min Boris is on Lebron he should simply be asked to sit back and prevent him from driving...

I wouldn't mind more Boris on Wade with Green on Lebron instead tbh, especially if Pop doesn't want to leave Lebron much room to shoot...

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Beli is probably hopeless at this point unless he's on Chalmers or Cole. He's obviously to checking Lebron or Wade, and he isn't really attentive enough to be trusted on Allen. I guess Lewis could be a match-up he could do. Surprisingly enough, Mills didn't really get tested. That probably speaks well to his defense, as the Heat are pretty good at finding open men.

Nice spin on Splitter/Bosh thing. You're right that he struggled closing out, especially early in the game. But all of the bigs did. I liked that Tim actually sold out on one close-out. That's a better plan for him to do than hoping he can both close and contain penetration.

I agree to an extent. I will also say Miami actually game-planned for the previous strategy, which is why James kept getting the ball on the wings or deep elbow. They wanted Lebron to have room to drive past his man even with the cushion. Diaw's a fine post defender, but even last year, James ate him alive facing up. As I said before, Splitter was awesome in his help on James drives. Boris will be all right so long as Tiago is behind him.

It's an idea. Obviously, James would try to take Green into the block in that case. That would almost certainly force a double, though.

:lol sorry Chinook, but *I* don't have an approach on closing on shooters. Like I said back when we discussed this, our discussion was never about soft-close vs hard-close. It was jumping or not on an actual hard-close.

FWIW, it's clear that on top of that, we also have differing opinions on what constitutes a hard-close, seeing that, IMO, Bosh's 4 point play was actually a hard-close by Tim, but you feel it was not.

Now, I haven't read the whole thing yet. I'm gonna get me a cup of coffee and do that. Appreciate you taking the time to put this together.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Obviously, the games haven't been played yet. I am in the process of making the template for the Finals (which will hopefully be more automated and therefore easier to compile after each game). I wanted to know if any posters had any a priori suggestions for things they'd like me to focus on. Obviously, I plan to cover the defense against the Heatles, and perhaps players like Allen, Lewis or others who provide a lot of scoring on a game-by-game basis. But I also like adding a couple of additional features to my breakdowns (especially with the longer turnarounds between games). For the WCF, I covered three-point close-outs and Durant's Game Two defense. I don't necessarily want to do those again.

So yeah, ideas? PnR defense, maybe? Or post defense? Let me know. I'll probably see how Game One goes and come up with some features afterwards, but it's always nice to know what foci you have before you actually start taking data. More statistically honest that way.

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Open 3s missed.... not contested. It seemed like last game we had them miss 6 wide open 3s.

Thanks for the writeup. I personally had the gut feeling that our defense wasn't that good after the game was over. There was plenty of miscommunication on a few of the rotations that left Allen open for 3 (and he missed them), and also some amateur-ish stuff like Danny's turnover coupled with him not thinking fast enough to go close out on Ray. I did think we were able to make key stops at certain moments, and we were able to punish them. I also thought Miami (especially Wade) ran out of gas a bit towards the end.

Another thing that jumps at me looking at the 1st table is how much Manu and Green were actually attacked by Miami. I don't think that's sheer luck, I think Miami does want to make a concerted effort for those guys to work hard on the defensive end to try to tire them out. Be it by chasing Ray around screens, or trying to keep up with Wade. I thought the Spurs tried to switch some of that coverage, especially on Allen, and that's when some of the defensive breakdowns occurred.

Wade himself talked yesterday how Manu picked them apart, and as far as Danny, they already know he can be a killer shooter, but tired legs are always a factor when trying to make long distance shots. They do a terrific job at jumping passing lanes, especially Wade, so the Spurs are going to have to mix it up on offense a bit, but that's a different discussion possibly for a different thread.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol sorry Chinook, but *I* don't have an approach on closing on shooters. Like I said back when we discussed this, our discussion was never about soft-close vs hard-close. It was jumping or not on an actual hard-close.

FWIW, it's clear that on top of that, we also have differing opinions on what constitutes a hard-close, seeing that, IMO, Bosh's 4 point play was actually a hard-close by Tim, but you feel it was not.

Now, I haven't read the whole thing yet. I'm gonna get me a cup of coffee and do that. Appreciate you taking the time to put this together.

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:lol Well, I was really just funning you, Nono. I do think the Spurs respected Bosh's drive too much and wanted to make him earn hard-closes by making a few threes, which is why Duncan sold out (successfully) later in the game. Make no mistake, though: Duncan was trying to soft-close on Bosh when he fouled him. Tim was just out of control and barreled into Chris. Had he been a more experienced closer like Green, then he would have just jumped past him.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Thanks for the writeup. I personally had the gut feeling that our defense wasn't that good after the game was over. There was plenty of miscommunication on a few of the rotations that left Allen open for 3 (and he missed them), and also some amateur-ish stuff like Danny's turnover coupled with him not thinking fast enough to go close out on Ray. I did think we were able to make key stops at certain moments, and we were able to punish them. I also thought Miami (especially Wade) ran out of gas a bit towards the end.

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I think Green sank to protect the basket on that play, which you're supposed to do when there's a fast break. However, Splitter also sank behind him, so Green was free to close out. Danny didn't realize this, which highlights your point about communication. I do think the Spurs could be smarter defensively. My comments were more than their adjustments would probably not have a big statistical impact, as Game One falsely propped up their stats due to Heat players missing wide-open shots.

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Another thing that jumps at me looking at the 1st table is how much Manu and Green were actually attacked by Miami. I don't think that's sheer luck, I think Miami does want to make a concerted effort for those guys to work hard on the defensive end to try to tire them out. Be it by chasing Ray around screens, or trying to keep up with Wade. I thought the Spurs tried to switch some of that coverage, especially on Allen, and that's when some of the defensive breakdowns occurred.

Wade himself talked yesterday how Manu picked them apart, and as far as Danny, they already know he can be a killer shooter, but tired legs are always a factor when trying to make long distance shots. They do a terrific job at jumping passing lanes, especially Wade, so the Spurs are going to have to mix it up on offense a bit, but that's a different discussion possibly for a different thread.

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I wouldn't draw that conclusion from Green's numbers. Remember, I give help-defenders the possessions if their rotations force the misses. Eight of Green's 17 possessions were him sinking down to help on drives. This is something Wade does a lot with Miami. Since Wade was in the paint on most plays and Miami's bigs were on the three-point line, Green was essentially the weak-side forward on a lot of plays. Even some of the remaining nine possessions were things like Danny defending the break or his man getting the put-back.

As far as Manu goes. He played more minutes than Green or Leonard did. Kawhi was attacked pretty frequently when he was defending James. I will also say that a few of Manu's possessions came in short spurt where the Heat were trying to ride Allen and Ray was bricking shots. I think Allen took three shots in one minute or something like that. Then, Pop closed the game with Manu on Wade for long stretches before Kawhi came in at the end. Dwyane attacked Ginobili pretty relentlessly, but he didn't have a ton of success.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

As far as Manu goes. He played more minutes than Green or Leonard did. Kawhi was attacked pretty frequently when he was defending James. I will also say that a few of Manu's possessions came in short spurt where the Heat were trying to ride Allen and Ray was bricking shots. I think Allen took three shots in one minute or something like that. Then, Pop closed the game with Manu on Wade for long stretches before Kawhi came in at the end. Dwyane attacked Ginobili pretty relentlessly, but he didn't have a ton of success.

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Good stuff. I'm discounting Lebron on the attack, because that will likely be the bread and butter for Miami when you have Lebron out there. But yes, I see a lot of running through screens for Ray when Manu is guarding him. I remember vividly one play in the 1st half where Manu asked a teammate (I think it was Patty?) to switch and close Allen on the corner, and it didn't happen. Luckily Ray missed the open 3. I think it will be in the Spurs' best interest to do some switching because you don't want Gino or Tony running through multiple screens then going on the other end and running the offense. It was just poorly done this game, and something I'm sure they'll pick up on the tape and fix.

One other factor that's missing here is Chalmers. As Spo said, he's important for Miami and his foul trouble limited him a lot in this game. I think we'll see more of him stepping up, possibly even more in Miami, and putting some extra pressure on our defense. He loves the corner 3s, and that's an area I didn't think we did a good job in Game 1.

Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...



The only reason it is a "surprise" is because 99% of Spurs fans fell for the "he's an elite defender" bullshit. Tiago is slow as hell, and anti-athletic. His rebounding is Roy-Hibbert-esque as well. The thing he does GREAT, better than any C in the game, is flop, take charges, and stand straight up in the block. He is getting smarter, and better every year, i think, but he still has a long way to go to be worth half the money paid for him.

I cant believe the Spurs pay their strength coach anything really. Bush league

I feel that one of the things that hurt the Heat in the last game and last year was Wades and Lebrons holding the ball and making a seemingly lazy jump shot that doesnt go in. It seems like laziness but is it good D? I expect them to go to the hole more.

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Originally Posted by tholdren

Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...



The only reason it is a "surprise" is because 99% of Spurs fans fell for the "he's an elite defender" bullshit. Tiago is slow as hell, and anti-athletic. His rebounding is Roy-Hibbert-esque as well. The thing he does GREAT, better than any C in the game, is flop, take charges, and stand straight up in the block. He is getting smarter, and better every year, i think, but he still has a long way to go to be worth half the money paid for him.

I cant believe the Spurs pay their strength coach anything really. Bush league

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:lol

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Originally Posted by skulls138

I feel that one of the things that hurt the Heat in the last game and last year was Wades and Lebrons holding the ball and making a seemingly lazy jump shot that doesnt go in. It seems like laziness but is it good D? I expect them to go to the hole more.

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James went to the hole as much a he wanted to. Wade wasn't as effective off the dribble as he used to be.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tholdren

Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...



The only reason it is a "surprise" is because 99% of Spurs fans fell for the "he's an elite defender" bullshit. Tiago is slow as hell, and anti-athletic. His rebounding is Roy-Hibbert-esque as well. The thing he does GREAT, better than any C in the game, is flop, take charges, and stand straight up in the block. He is getting smarter, and better every year, i think, but he still has a long way to go to be worth half the money paid for him.

I cant believe the Spurs pay their strength coach anything really. Bush league

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Much of him being bad against bosh, is him trying to help on Lebron, and much of Bosh's great shooting comes from the defense imploding on lebron.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

tl;dr: Charts are your friends. Also check the "general takeaways" section.

All right, guys. Here’s my breakdown for Game One of the Finals. For anyone who didn’t read my similar thread for the WCF, this is just a thread where I post stats charting covering individual defensive possessions of Spurs defenders on their opponents, essentially leading up to PPP (points per possession) allowed. These are home-grown stats, meaning I collected them from watching the games myself. I don’t use the same standards to assign credit/blame on possessions as many other people do; therefore, my numbers will almost certainly differ from other sources. Feel free to post alternative numbers, and to ask for clarification at any point.

My method for writing these breakdowns has changed since the last series. The biggest difference is that I am now charting EVERY Spurs defensive possession for each game, as opposed to the last series, where I just charted the possessions of the Thunder’s Big Four. I hope that my doing so will allow for us to see a more-complete picture of how each Spur impacts the game on that end. I am also incorporating a second set of stats for each of the Heat’s Big Three covering where they attacked from for each possession they ended. If that sounds confusing, it will hopefully make more sense after we get to the first example.

Total Defensive Stats:

Game 1	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	13	6	5	2	1	17	1.307692
Leonard	14	6	4	2	3	15	1.071429
Splitter	12	3	7	1	2	7	0.583333
Parker	8	4	3	1	1	9	1.125
Green	17	3	8	2	4	11	0.647059
Diaw	12	5	4	1	2	14	1.166667
Mills	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	16	5	8	2	3	10	0.625
Belinelli	6	4	2	0	0	9	1.5
Total	99	37	41	11	16	95	0.959596

I’ll talk about my general thoughts later in the post. But damn, Green and Manu did work defensively. Splitter was pretty amazing, too, despite lapsing a few times on Bosh.


Numbers Against Key Heat Players:

James	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Leonard	9	4	2	2	2	10	1.111111
Splitter	3	0	2	0	1	0	0
Green	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.666667
Diaw	7	4	2	1	0	11	1.571429
Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	24	9	8	4	4	25	1.041667
Defender	Spot	Result	Points		Continued from previous column...
Leonard	Break	M	2		Diaw	Break	M	2
Leonard	Block	M	2		Ginobili	Wing	F	N/A
Leonard	Block	TO	0		Leonard	Corner	F	N/A
Leonard	Wing	M	2		Green	S. Corner	TO	0
Leonard	Wing	F	1		Belinelli	Block	M	2
Green	Elbow	X	0		Diaw	Corner	T	3
Diaw	Wing	X	0		Leonard	Break	X	0
Splitter	Rim	X	0		Belinelli	Wing	X	0
Diaw	Wing	X	0		Green	Break	F	2
Leonard	Wing	TO	0		Leonard	Wing	T	3
Diaw	Wing	M	2		Leonard	Corner	X	0
Diaw	Wing	F	2		Diaw	Corner	X	0
Continued in the next column...					Diaw	Wing	M	2

Diaw struggled to defend James mainly because Lebron started attacking Diaw from outside the three-point line on each possession they were matched up. That meant that the help had to come sooner and that the helper had to move farther out. That was fine when Splitter was the center, as he was very much able to stay with James and waste two of his shots at the rim. But if Duncan is the last line of defense, James will be able to score on Diaw any time he wants to.

In general, James liked to attack from the wing/elbow area, so him starting away from the basket wasn’t exclusive to Diaw’s possessions at all. But he seemed more inclined to try to overpower Leonard and Green than he was Diaw. This didn’t work all that well for him, because, as I said, it’s much easier for the Spurs’ defense to collapse on James if his man can stay with him into the paint.

I’d suggest Pop only play Diaw on James if Splitter is in for Duncan. The relative lack of mobility of a Diaw/Duncan small-ball front court is a pretty big weakness.

Wade	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Leonard	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Splitter	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Green	4	1	1	1	1	4	1
Diaw	2	0	1	0	1	0	0
Ginobili	6	3	3	0	0	6	1
Belinelli	2	2	0	0	0	5	2.5
Total	21	8	10	2	2	19	0.904762
Defender	Spot	Result	Points
Green	Break	TO	0		Green	Top	X	0
Green	Block	X	0		Green	Rim	M	2
Splitter	Elbow	X	0		Belinelli	Wing	T	3
Ginobili	Corner	M	2		Parket	FT Line	X	0
Ginobili	Elbow	X	0		Diaw	S. Corner	TO	0
Ginobili	Block	M	2		Ginobili	Wing	X	0
Parker	Corner	M	2		Diaw	S. Corner	X	0
Green	Corner	F	2		Ginobili	FT Line	M	2
Green	Block	TO	0		Ginobili	Key	X	0
Belinelli	Elbow	M	2		Ginobili	FT Line	X	0
Ginobili	Elbow	M	2		Leonard	Corner	X	0

Obviously, it’s too early to tell which wing defender will be the best Wade stopper. Wade saw a variety of defenders and had mixed results against all but Beli. I like the way that he and Manu compete against each other, so I’m fine with Ginobili getting the nod when he’s out there. Green got off to a better start against Wade than he did in Game One last year. We’ll see if that continues. Also, Wade better be able to roast Diaw in subsequent games, or else the Heat have no chance to overcoming the Spurs.

Bosh	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Defender	Spot	Result	Points
Duncan	4	2	1	1	1	6	1.5		Splitter	Wing	M	2
Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Leonard	Corner	T	3
Splitter	4	3	0	0	1	7	1.75		Splitter	Corner	T	3
Parker	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ginobili	FT Line	X	0
Green	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Duncan	Wing	X	0
Diaw	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Duncan	Wing	M	2
Ginobili	1	0	1	1	0	0	0		Diaw	Elbow	X	0
									Splitter	Corner	TO	0
Total	13	7	4	2	2	18	1.384615		Splitter	FT Line	M	2
									Ginobili	Elbow	F	N/A
									Duncan	Corner	TO	0
									Green	Block	M	2
									Duncan	Wing	T	4
									Parker	S. Corner	X	0

The Spurs need to go ahead and close hard on Bosh pretty much every time. Chris’ three makes came off soft-closes by Leonard, Splitter and Duncan, including a four-point play on Tim’s close. His only miss from three came on Tim’s hard-close. I don’t know why the Spurs took the ElNono approach in Game One, but let’s hope they don’t do it again.

Allen	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.5
Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
Parker	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Green	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5
Mills	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	4	1	3	0	0	2	0.5
Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	13	6	6	1	0	16	1.230769

The fact that the Spurs gave up 16 points to Allen isn’t as concerning as the fact that they gave him 13 possessions. Ginobili in particular benefitted from being the “defender” during three no-close misses. Belinelli got the benefit of a miss as well. Green himself didn’t really get lucky with Allen. Ray only took two shots in the second half when Danny was on him. The first was a drive where Ray beat him to the middle but missed after Tim pressured the shot. The second miss was the result of Green closing hard on Allen, forcing him to reset. Ray then tried to shoot the three again, but Danny had recovered from his fly-by and pestered Allen into the miss at preserved the Spurs’ 99-95 lead.

How the Spurs guard Allen going forward is a topic for discussion. The most important thing a defender needs to do in order to check Allen is stay with him and not allow clean shots. Ideally, this would be a match-up that’d work for Mills, but he got wasted on a screen the only time he got the assignment. I’d like a bigger sample size before judging that strategy. The Spurs had a level of success switching screens, but with Ray being much improved inside the arc, he can make a defender pay for closing out of control, which happened a couple of times.

Lewis	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
Duncan	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5
Splitter	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
Parker	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
Green	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
Diaw	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
Ginobili	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
Total	10	4	6	0	0	10	1

I probably won’t cover Lewis every game, but I thought he did enough to talk about in this breakdown. Splitter did fine on him, but everyone else has to make sure to get their closes right.

General Takeaways:

-Danny Green’s rotations were exceptional in Game One. He sank into the lane to force five misses (two on Chalmers, two on Lewis and his block on Andersen). He collected two steals by jumping passes in the paint, in addition to forcing an additional turnover after sinking to the baseline to help out Leonard on James. Lebron couldn’t complete the Hammer play because Danny took away the passing angle. From a team-defensive perspective, this was the best game I’d seen Green play.

-Manu was a pest on defense. He forced three turnovers by collecting drawing two offensive fouls and collecting a steal. (The box score credits him with two steals, but I gave his first one to Leonard since Kawhi blocked James’ view.) As I said above, his numbers are helped by Allen going cold for a stretch. But in a way that’s better, since I think Manu can repeat this level of defensive performance.

-Duncan may well struggle defensively in this series. He definitely didn’t start off on the right foot in Game One, if his PPP allowed is any indication. The reasons behind this are well established. Tim is elite when he can stay in the pain and protect the rim. He’s poor when he has to leave the paint to hedge on PnRs or close out on shooters. This wasn’t like some the previous games in the post-season where Duncan was consistently inadequate. The Heat allowed Tim to stay in his comfort zone quite a bit, and he rarely failed when he was there. But I think it’s just going to get tougher for him as the series goes on.

-Parker, Diaw and Leonard each put up an above-average PPP allowed (which is a negative thing). For the latter two, the reason for that is the best player who’s ever lived. They can get a break for that . In Parker’s case, it really wasn’t anything he did. He got scored on once each by four different players. I’d caution against assuming Tony got beaten or anything like that.

-It’s kind of worrisome that the Spurs actually had a pretty strong defensive performance against the Heat and still struggled to put the game away. I know about the Spurs’ turnovers, and I do think it could all end up being a wash. But the Heat missed shots they should have made, and they probably will make tomorrow or when the series shifts to Miami. There are a couple of tweaks Pop can make to improve the numbers, but they wouldn’t move the needle that much. This is going to be a high-scoring series.


All right. I know this was a REALLY long post. I hope some of you managed to stick with me for this long. Feedback is appreciated. If you have any questions/challenges, let me know.

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Great read. Thanks, Chinook. :tu

Thanks Chinook!

I'd like to see more Leonard on Wade to prevent pick and roll and defending the passing lanes, but apparently Diaw -just by Pop design or whatever- isn't being effective on James like last playoffs, so maybe Pop'll want Leonard to match any Lebron minutes.

As much as people like to diss Splitter. The only time Lebron gets to the rim and dunks one is when he's out of the game. Having 2 bigs inside is a pretty strong deterrent.

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Originally Posted by therealtruth

As much as people like to diss Splitter. The only time Lebron gets to the rim and dunks one is when he's out of the game. Having 2 bigs inside is a pretty strong deterrent.

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Bosh whipped Splitters ass last game and continuing the trend.

Game Two numbers with very little preamble or discussion given the lateness of this post:

Total	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	13.5	7	6	2	0	18	1.333333		Duncan	26.5	13	11	4	1	35	1.320755
	Leonard	19	6	7	6	3	18	0.947368		Leonard	33	12	11	8	6	33	1
	Splitter	8	4	2	3	1	12	1.5		Splitter	20	7	9	4	3	19	0.95
	Parker	11	4	4	1	2	9	0.818182		Parker	19	8	7	2	3	18	0.947368
	Green	10	2	3	3	2	8	0.8		Green	27	5	11	5	6	19	0.703704
	Diaw	9	6	2	0	1	14	1.555556		Diaw	21	11	6	1	3	28	1.333333
	Mills	5	0	3	1	2	0	0		Mills	6	1	3	1	2	3	0.5
	Ginobili	9	3	4	3	1	8	0.888889		Ginobili	25	8	12	5	4	18	0.72
	Belinelli	8	5	2	0	1	11	1.375		Belinelli	14	9	4	0	1	20	1.428571
	Bonner	0	0	0	1	0	0	N/A		Bonner	0	0	0	1	0	0	N/A
	Total	92.5	37	33	20	13	98	1.059459		Total	191.5	74	74	31	29	193	1.007833
James	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	4.5	1	3	1	0	3	0.666667		Duncan	4.5	1	3	1	0	3	0.666667
	Leonard	11	5	2	4	2	14	1.272727		Leonard	20	9	4	6	4	24	1.2
	Splitter	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Splitter	4	0	2	0	2	0	0
	Parker	3	1	2	0	0	2	0.666667		Parker	3	1	2	0	0	2	0.666667
	Green	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Green	4	0	1	1	2	2	0.5
	Diaw	6	5	1	0	0	12	2		Diaw	13	9	3	1	0	23	1.769231
	Ginobili	1	1	0	1	0	2	2		Ginobili	1	1	0	1	0	2	2
	Belinelli	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Belinelli	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333
	Total	28.5	14	8	6	4	35	1.22807		Total	52.5	23	16	10	8	60	1.142857
Wade	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Duncan	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333
	Leonard	2	0	1	0	1	0	0		Leonard	3	0	2	0	1	0	0
	Parker	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Splitter	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
	Green	3	1	1	1	0	4	1.333333		Parker	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667
	Diaw	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Green	7	2	2	2	1	8	1.142857
	Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Diaw	3	0	1	0	2	0	0
	Ginobili	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.666667		Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Belinelli	3	3	0	0	0	6	2		Ginobili	9	3	4	1	1	8	0.888889
										Belinelli	5	5	0	0	0	11	2.2
	Total	15	5	4	2	4	14	0.933333
										Total	36	13	14	4	6	33	0.916667
Bosh	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	2	1	1	1	0	3	1.5		Duncan	6	3	2	2	1	9	1.5
	Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Leonard	2	2	0	0	0	6	3
	Splitter	6	3	2	3	0	9	1.5		Splitter	10	6	2	3	1	16	1.6
	Green	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.5		Parker	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Diaw	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Green	3	1	1	1	0	3	1
	Ginobili	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Diaw	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
										Ginobili	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
	Total	13	6	5	5	0	18	1.384615
										Total	26	13	9	7	2	36	1.384615
Allen	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Duncan	3	1	1	1	0	3	1
	Green	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Leonard	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
	Ginobili	4	2	2	0	0	4	1		Parker	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
	Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5		Green	3	1	1	0	1	3	1
										Mills	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
	Total	8	4	3	0	1	9	1.125		Ginobili	8	3	5	0	0	6	0.75
										Belinelli	4	2	2	0	0	5	1.25
										Total	21	10	9	1	1	25	1.190476
Lewis	Game 2	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	3	3	0	0	0	8	2.666667		Duncan	5	4	1	0	0	11	2.2
	Leonard	3	0	3	1	0	0	0		Leonard	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
	Splitter	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Splitter	3	1	2	0	0	3	1
	Parker	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
	Green	2	1	0	1	0	3	1.5		Green	4	1	2	1	0	3	0.75
										Diaw	1	1	0	0	0	3	3
	Total	10	5	4	2	0	14	1.4		Ginobili	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
										Total	20	9	10	2	0	24	1.2

Note: In case anyone is missing it, I did do a spot-chart for Game Two just like I did for Game One. I decided to leave it out of this breakdown due to time constraints. If anyone wants to see it, leave a message in this thread, and I’ll post it. Or you can PM me, and I’ll send it your way.

General Takeaways:

-We all know James went into GOAT mode for a big chunk of the third quarter of Game Two. But I think simply chocking that quarter up to James being unguardable takes a lot of the onus off the individual defenders on those plays, especially Diaw. Boris was forced to give James a big cushion in the third because James kept driving past him in Game One and the first half of Game Two. While I don’t think James will continue to be red-hot on his jumpers, he’s probably going to shoot better than he did in the Finals last year, so it probably doesn’t make sense to lay off him as much.

-Outside of Wade, each of the Heat’s top-five scorers was efficient from the field. The idea that the Spurs played passable defense in Game Two is untrue. The Spurs simply have to defend better in future games.

-The bigs are having a hard time closing out on Bosh and Lewis. This includes Splitter, Duncan and Diaw. What’s funny is that the Spurs’ smalls are actually doing a good job protecting the paint, so that part of this Bizzarro defense is not the issue. Leonard was the only player who successfully closed out consistently.

-Qualitatively speaking, Beli’s always been a poor defensive player. But this was the first game that I’ve charted in which Marco’s shortcomings have been evident quantitatively. I don’t see how Pop can justify playing him minutes going forward. It’s just not worth it.

-A poster asked me to keep track of second-chance points. While I haven’t posted about them, I have been charting them. The Spurs gave up nine points on seven second-chance attempts (all offensive rebounds) in Game One. In Game Two, the Spurs gave up seven points on eight attempts (five offensive boards, two loose-ball fouls, and one Beli special in which Marco made a great steal but tossed it to a Heat player so quickly the shot clock did not reset).

Game Three numbers:

Total	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	8	4	2	1	1	11	1.375		Duncan	34.5	17	13	5	2	46	1.333333
	Leonard	19	5	9	4	4	14	0.736842		Leonard	52	17	20	12	10	47	0.903846
	Splitter	7	3	2	2	1	9	1.285714		Splitter	27	10	11	6	4	28	1.037037
	Parker	10	2	4	4	3	6	0.6		Parker	29	10	11	6	6	24	0.827586
	Green	20	5	4	3	9	16	0.8		Green	47	10	15	8	15	35	0.744681
	Diaw	11	5	4	4	1	14	1.272727		Diaw	32	16	10	5	4	42	1.3125
	Mills	6	3	2	0	1	7	1.166667		Mills	12	4	5	1	3	10	0.833333
	Ginobili	5	3	0	4	0	10	2		Ginobili	30	11	12	9	4	28	0.933333
	Belinelli	2	1	0	1	0	3	1.5		Belinelli	16	10	4	1	1	23	1.4375
	Bonner	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Bonner	1	1	0	1	0	2	2
	Ayres	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ayres	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Joseph	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Joseph	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Total	91	32	29	23	20	92	1.010989		Total	282.5	106	103	54	49	285	1.00885
James	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	4	2	1	0	1	4	1		Duncan	8.5	3	4	1	1	7	0.823529
	Leonard	10	4	3	3	3	10	1		Leonard	30	13	7	9	7	34	1.133333
	Parker	1	0	1	1	0	0	0		Splitter	4	0	2	0	2	0	0
	Green	4	1	0	1	2	4	1		Parker	4	1	3	1	0	2	0.5
	Diaw	2	1	0	1	1	2	1		Green	8	1	1	2	4	6	0.75
	Ginobili	0	0	0	1	0	0	N/A		Diaw	15	10	3	2	1	25	1.666667
	Bonner	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Ginobili	1	1	0	2	0	2	2
										Belinelli	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333
	Total	22	9	5	7	7	22	1		Bonner	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
										Total	74.5	32	21	17	15	82	1.100671
Wade	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	1	0	0	1	0	2	2		Duncan	4	2	1	1	0	6	1.5
	Leonard	1	0	0	1	0	1	1		Leonard	4	0	2	1	1	1	0.25
	Green	10	2	2	2	5	7	0.7		Splitter	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
	Diaw	4	2	2	1	0	4	1		Parker	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667
	Ginobili	3	3	0	1	0	6	2		Green	17	4	4	4	6	15	0.882353
	Belinelli	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Diaw	7	2	3	1	2	4	0.571429
										Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Total	20	8	4	6	5	22	1.1		Ginobili	12	6	4	2	1	14	1.166667
										Belinelli	6	6	0	0	0	13	2.166667
										Total	56	21	18	10	11	55	0.982143
Bosh	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Bosh	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Duncan	7	4	2	2	1	12	1.714286
	Parker	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Leonard	2	2	0	0	0	6	3
	Green	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Splitter	10	6	2	3	1	16	1.6
	Mills	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
										Green	4	2	1	1	0	5	1.25
	Total	4	4	0	0	0	9	2.25		Diaw	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
										Mills	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
										Ginobili	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
										Total	30	17	9	7	2	45	1.5
Allen	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Leonard	2	0	2	0	0	0	0		Duncan	3	1	1	1	0	3	1
	Splitter	2	1	1	1	0	3	1.5		Leonard	3	1	2	0	0	2	0.666667
	Parker	3	1	0	1	2	3	1		Splitter	2	1	1	1	0	3	1.5
	Green	2	1	0	0	1	3	1.5		Parker	4	2	0	1	2	6	1.5
	Diaw	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Green	5	2	1	0	2	6	1.2
	Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Diaw	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
	Ginobili	1	0	0	1	0	2	2		Mills	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5
										Ginobili	9	3	5	1	0	8	0.888889
	Total	12	3	5	3	3	11	0.916667		Belinelli	4	2	2	0	0	5	1.25
										Total	33	13	14	4	4	36	1.090909
Lewis	Game 3	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Duncan	6	5	1	0	0	13	2.166667
	Leonard	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5		Leonard	5	1	4	1	0	3	0.6
	Splitter	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Splitter	4	2	2	0	0	6	1.5
	Parker	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Parker	3	1	2	0	0	2	0.666667
	Diaw	2	2	0	0	0	6	3		Green	4	1	2	1	0	3	0.75
										Diaw	3	3	0	0	0	9	3
	Total	7	5	2	0	0	14	2		Ginobili	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
										Total	27	14	12	2	0	38	1.407407

General Takeaways:

-Lock n Lock were forces of nature defensively in Game Three. They combined for 13 forced turnovers, and each won their individual battles with James (more on that later). Green actually collected seven steals, but two were credited to
other players for reasons I can’t understand. (The same is true for two steals by Kawhi.) He also drew a travelling violation on James and forced Wade to throw an entry pass out of bounds due to a strong effort fronting Bosh. For Leonard, the biggest stat that jumps out to me is the 10 possessions allowed against James. For the GOAT to only go at you 10 times when you’re matched up against him for most of your 39 minutes means you’re doing something right. He held everyone else to four points on nine possessions, which is insane.

-The biggest story at tip-off was Diaw starting in place of Splitter. It’s hard to argue with the result from an offensive perspective. But defensively, Diaw did a great job limiting Bosh’s looks. It’s pretty telling that Diaw did not let Bosh use a possession against him, even though Boris was Chris’ primary guard.

-The three-point defense is sort of disappointing. I guess the Spurs are just going to have to live with Lewis scoring double-figures every game on efficient shooting, since the Spurs’ bigs seem powerless to stop him. The Spurs were far more successful using a small to run Rashard off the line, so it might make more sense to play small against any lineup with Lewis at the four than it does to stay big. The Spurs did decide to change up their defense on Ray Allen, and I’m not too happy with the result. Mainly, I’m not happy because the Spurs didn’t know when switch and when to go. The “always switch” mentality is simple, but it creates problems when Allen’s man is chasing him at a full sprint and makes it by the screen. That led to too many open looks for the screener. Hopefully, that gets cleaned up going forward.


Making James Work on Defense

Quarter	Time	Spur	Spot	Result	Points
1	8:46	Leonard	Break	M	2
1	7:22	Leonard	Break	T	3
1	5:34	Leonard	Wing	T	3
1	0:34	Leonard	Corner	T	3
2	9:08	Green	Wing	T	3
2	8:34	Leonard	Elbow	TO	0
2	8:09	Leonard	S. Corner	M	2
2	0:05	Parker	HC	F	2
3	9:27	Parker	Wing	F	2
3	0:03	Green	Wing	X	0
4	11:39	Green	Wing	M	2
4	11:03	Duncan	Rim	TO	0
4	8:14	Green	FC	F	N/A
4	3:35	Leonard	Wing	F	1

In total, James gave up 23 points off 13 possessions, leading to a PPP of 1.77. That’s obviously horrible, but there are some mitigating factors, such as the fact that players hit some lucky shots against him and that he was often trying to cover for other players. But still, James made some costly mistakes that led to points (picking up Green at half-court in the first and leaving Leonard open for the three, fouling Parker on pump-fakes). He would have had an even worse showing had the officials called his swipe-downs on Duncan’s wrist.

The fact that Green and especially Leonard won their match-ups with James is not all that important. That may never happen again. But the fact that each was able to make Lebron pay for trying to rest while guarding them is important. Lebron has to be Miami’s best defender for the Heat to win this series, so he can’t have too many lapses. It’s also important that Miami be able to get away with putting Wade, Lewis, Cole and Chalmers on Green and Leonard while James guards Parker. If Lock n Lock score well enough to draw James’ guard, Tony should be able to make some noise going forward.

As always, feedback is appreciated.

Thanks for the great work. This confirms that Green has been Wade's kryptonite in Game 3. Hopefully he can keep disrupting Wade's offense going forward. It's pretty telling that all of Wade's TOs were generated by Green.

Bosh is shooting incredible so far... If I'm Spoelstra I'm forcing the offense through him a lot more going forward...

solid takes to bring great stuff to this board

Great stuff Chinook but in regards to the 3 point defense, I was hoping Diaw in the starting role would've diminished Lewis' perimeter play but it didn't make a difference and I'm not sure we can afford to keep letting Lewis play that efficiently in 3 point shooting. In a close game with Lebron having a special game that overrides most of our positive factors, a Lewis 3 point shot can be a deciding outcome in a game. I still think Diaw can make a difference defensively as well as offensively but the perimeter D is a major concern for me.

Parker looking very good in this game 3 and on the series tbh

I think Pop needs to match the Heat players with their Kryptonite more. Can't allow them to get some confidence of a guy like Beli.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SpurPadre

Great stuff Chinook but in regards to the 3 point defense, I was hoping Diaw in the starting role would've diminished Lewis' perimeter play but it didn't make a difference and I'm not sure we can afford to keep letting Lewis play that efficiently in 3 point shooting. In a close game with Lebron having a special game that overrides most of our positive factors, a Lewis 3 point shot can be a deciding outcome in a game. I still think Diaw can make a difference defensively as well as offensively but the perimeter D is a major concern for me.

---

Diaw is guarding Bosh. Duncan's on Lewis. Tim won't ever really improve in that match-up. Lewis is going to keep getting shots.

looking forward to see the game 4 update, though tbh i'm expecting chinook to show that Leonard was just so-so :lol

:lol I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

---

:lmao tbh i actually thought of the impending breakdown when i heard that comment during the game

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

---

I immediately thought of the SpursTalk discussion when that moment happened... actually laughed.

Chinook loving this btw. Not adding anything because I don't have anything to add, but really enjoying the breakdowns :tu

^yeah, i think he knows we're jabbing at him... Chinook's write-ups have probably been the best reads on the Spurs Forum during the postseason

Definitely.

I actually agree with the contention of the super hard close on shooters, but Ray Allen could be the exception - he doesn't seem to have much of an issue letting the defender fly by patiently and nailing the shot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MI21

Definitely.

I actually agree with the contention of the super hard close on shooters, but Ray Allen could be the exception - he doesn't seem to have much of an issue letting the defender fly by patiently and nailing the shot.

---

its funny because Ray made the same mistake on the other end, Green pumped and knocked in a 3 pointer. both sharpshooters fucked up on a closeout against the other

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spurraider21

looking forward to see the game 4 update, though tbh i'm expecting chinook to show that Leonard was just so-so :lol

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I can't imagine Leonard NOT having a superior rating to Green for tonight's game. Danny's fouls killed him. Although Lebron going HAM in the third may affect the numbers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

---

Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. :lol Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MI21

I immediately thought of the SpursTalk discussion when that moment happened... actually laughed.

---

I did, too. I started refreshing ST to see if Nono was gonna call me out. :lol Thought I had managed to duck him.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

I can't imagine Leonard NOT having a superior rating to Green for tonight's game. Danny's fouls killed him. Although Lebron going HAM in the third may affect the numbers.



Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. :lol Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.



I did, too. I started refreshing ST to see if Nono was gonna call me out. :lol Thought I had managed to duck him.

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i still think Green's numbers will look good, based on Wade's shooting figures

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

---

I was laughing while thinking at this discussion. This is the end of fly-by closeouts :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spurraider21

its funny because Ray made the same mistake on the other end, Green pumped and knocked in a 3 pointer. both sharpshooters fucked up on a closeout against the other

---

yup. And the discussion is never hard-close vs soft-close, it's the jumping, especially on limited space. You can hard close by frantically running at a player and invading his space to force him to put the ball on the floor.

A lot of players jump, and it's more prevalent when covering long distances, so it's not like Danny is doing something weird, he just sometimes overdoes it. As I was telling Chinook, I think it's a matter of bad habit, something he needs to recognize better when to do it and when not to do it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. :lol Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.

---

:lol I thought Wade caught Danny again on that in this game. He's actually baiting him to do it. Danny was terrific tho, I have no complaints...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spurraider21

i still think Green's numbers will look good, based on Wade's shooting figures

---

Maybe, but Green got saddled with Wade's only making in the first three quarters and at least two other shots in addition to his fouls. He also didn't force many TOs. I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 1 in PPP allowed. Kawhi forced quite a few TOs and had some blocks, so he should be able to offset James having that GOAT quarter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I thought Wade caught Danny again on that in this game. He's actually biting him to do it. Danny was terrific tho, I have no complains...

---

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

---

I would agree with that. I just think Danny sometimes feels he has to *alter* shots, instead of *contesting* shots, when Pop just wants the latter. I like the aggressiveness, but experienced players will make you pay for it.

On the same token, I also liked Danny's composure to make Ray pay on the other end for the same "mistake".

BTW I for one would like for the NBA to change its rules on the kind of foul Wade got. It's true that Green wasn't jumping straight up to contest that shot, but he was actually going to land in front of Wade. Then Wade takes one step forward and suddenly it's called contact.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ElNono

I would agree with that. I just think Danny sometimes feels he has to *alter* shots, instead of *contesting* shots, when Pop just wants the latter. I like the aggressiveness, but experienced players will make you pay for it.

On the same token, I also liked Danny's composure to make Ray pay on the other end for the same "mistake".

---

Green is still a PF at heart. He's an elite shot-blocker for his position, and that comes with the tendency to be jumpy. He needs to get smarter about it, though. He can't pick up that many fouls trying to protect the rim. Verticality is the key in the paint, and just plain patience is the key on the perimeter.

The Heat are hard-closing on Green, and Danny is making them pay on several different ways. If this were a Heat board, you'd be all on me for how ineffective Miami's hard-closes have been on Green.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

Green is still a PF at heart. He's an elite shot-blocker for his position, and that comes with the tendency to be jumpy. He needs to get smarter about it, though. He can't pick up that many fouls trying to protect the rim. Verticality is the key in the paint, and just plain patience is the key on the perimeter.

The Heat are hard-closing on Green, and Danny is making them pay on several different ways. If this were a Heat board, you'd be all on me for how ineffective Miami's hard-closes have been on Green.

---

Credit to Danny, since at least Game 3, he's shown he can be trusted to be more than a spot up shooter. Pop will reward that (as long as he's not in foul trouble).

Shorter breakdown today, guys. Here are the numbers for Game Four:

Total	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	18	5	10	2	1	11	0.611111		Duncan	52.5	22	23	7	3	57	1.085714
	Leonard	20	6	10	2	3	15	0.75		Leonard	72	23	30	14	13	62	0.861111
	Splitter	7	3	4	0	0	7	1		Splitter	34	13	15	6	4	35	1.029412
	Parker	4	1	2	1	0	4	1		Parker	33	11	13	7	6	28	0.848485
	Green	9	4	2	5	0	15	1.666667		Green	56	14	17	13	15	50	0.892857
	Diaw	7	3	3	0	1	6	0.857143		Diaw	40	19	14	5	5	48	1.2
	Mills	8	1	3	2	3	3	0.375		Mills	20	5	8	3	6	13	0.65
	Ginobili	11	4	2	3	4	10	0.909091		Ginobili	41	15	14	12	8	38	0.926829
	Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5		Belinelli	18	11	5	1	1	26	1.444444
	Bonner	7	4	1	1	1	12	1.714286		Bonner	8	5	1	2	1	14	1.75
	Ayres	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ayres	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
										Joseph	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
	Total	94	32	39	17	13	86	0.914894
										Total	377.5	138	143	71	62	371	0.982781
James	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.5		Duncan	10.5	3	5	2	1	8	0.761905
	Leonard	11	6	3	1	1	15	1.363636		Leonard	41	19	10	10	8	49	1.195122
	Splitter	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Splitter	5	1	2	0	2	3	0.6
	Parker	3	0	2	1	0	2	0.666667		Parker	7	1	5	2	0	4	0.571429
	Green	1	1	0	1	0	2	2		Green	9	2	1	3	4	8	0.888889
	Mills	2	0	1	0	1	0	0		Diaw	15	10	3	2	1	25	1.666667
	Ginobili	2	1	0	0	1	3	1.5		Mills	2	0	1	0	1	0	0
	Bonner	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Ginobili	3	2	0	2	1	5	1.666667
										Belinelli	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333
	Total	23	10	7	4	3	28	1.217391		Bonner	2	2	0	0	0	4	2
										Total	97.5	42	28	21	18	110	1.128205
Wade	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.666667		Duncan	7	3	2	2	0	8	1.142857
	Leonard	3	0	2	1	1	0	0		Leonard	7	0	4	2	2	1	0.142857
	Splitter	2	0	2	0	0	0	0		Splitter	4	0	4	1	0	0	0
	Green	4	1	1	2	0	5	1.25		Parker	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667
	Diaw	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667		Green	21	5	5	6	6	20	0.952381
	Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Diaw	10	3	4	1	3	6	0.6
	Ginobili	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.333333		Mills	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
	Bonner	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ginobili	15	6	5	3	2	15	1
										Belinelli	6	6	0	0	0	13	2.166667
	Total	20	3	10	5	3	10	0.5		Bonner	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
										Total	76	24	28	15	14	65	0.855263
Bosh	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	8	2	5	0	1	4	0.5		Duncan	15	6	7	2	2	16	1.066667
	Leonard	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Leonard	3	2	0	0	1	6	2
	Green	1	0	0	1	0	2	2		Splitter	10	6	2	3	1	16	1.6
	Diaw	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333		Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
	Ginobili	1	1	0	1	0	2	2		Green	5	2	1	2	0	7	1.4
										Diaw	5	3	2	0	0	6	1.2
	Total	14	5	6	2	2	12	0.857143		Mills	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
										Ginobili	3	1	2	2	0	2	0.666667
										Total	44	22	15	9	4	57	1.295455

Note: I didn't include the numbers for Lewis and Allen in this breakdown, obviously. But I do still have them (as I do the numbers for each Heat player for each game). If anyone really wants to see them, let me know, and I'll post them.

General Takeaways:

-If anyone thought my grading system was biased to make Green look good, you can stop thinking that now. Danny had a poor game defensively, and both his plus-minus and his PPP allowed reflect that. His main problem was that he fouled too much, and each of them was the result of his jumping unnecessarily or sticking his hand where it didn’t belong. Due to his gambling nature Green is a boom-or-bust player defensively. He’s obviously a lot more boom than bust, but if a couple of bounces and whistles don’t go his way, he can look really bad. He had a couple of nice deflections in Game Four, but whereas those deflections became turnovers in Game Three, on Thursday the loose balls found their way into the hands of Heat players in scoring position. Bad luck for Danny, indeed, but that doesn’t mean he deserves a pass for when his gambling bites him in the ass. He gets plenty of praise in this thread when it turns out well.

-Leonard had a very strong defensive performance, obviously, both qualitatively and quantitatively. He wasn’t really able to stop James’ GOAT mode in the third quarter, but outside of that, allowing zero points on 12 possessions outside of James’ run. He used his length very well against smaller Heat players, collecting three blocks against Wade and Chalmers and altering a couple of other shots. If Kawhi can every become a dominant shot-blocker for his position, he has real potential to be a DPOY winner.

-This was by far Duncan’s best defensive performance this post-season. With Lewis struggling to stretch the floor, Tim could hang back in the lane, which allowed him to stay in his comfort zone and protect the rim. But Duncan also showed improved effort getting back in transition and staying with driving guards on PnRs. The Heat better hope Lewis can get hot again, because Tim is going to smell blood in the water tomorrow.

-Diaw also had a fine game defensively. He got out to contest shots on Bosh and Lewis, but he was most impressive in his ability to guard Wade. I said it before, but if the Heat can’t exploit Boris on Dwyane, then they have no chance to win another game. I imagine the Heat are going to start Allen tomorrow, so we may well see Green on Ray and Diaw on Wade from the gate. Wade’s ability to attack that match-up early may be a pretty strong sign of whether Miami is going to be a threat to win Game Five.

-The Heat had six second-chance opportunities and scored five points off them. The Spurs had 12 opportunities and scored 11 points off them.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spurraider21

looking forward to see the game 4 update, though tbh i'm expecting chinook to show that Leonard was just so-so :lol

---

It surely didn't turn out that way.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

It surely didn't turn out that way.

---

:lol. thanks for the write-up

Great read as usual. Pop finally took Beli out of the rotation despite Green having a so so game by his standard... Guess he really wanted that game :lol...

thanks :tu

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chinook

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

---

Wade is the best in the business at that pump fake.

The only thing I fear is Spoelstra makes dramatic changes to try to catch the Spurs by surprise. He's gotten better since 2011 and is willing to do anything to win.