tl;dr: Charts are your friends. Also check the "general takeaways" section.
All right, guys. Here’s my breakdown for Game One of the Finals. For anyone who didn’t read my similar thread for the WCF, this is just a thread where I post stats charting covering individual defensive possessions of Spurs defenders on their opponents, essentially leading up to PPP (points per possession) allowed. These are home-grown stats, meaning I collected them from watching the games myself. I don’t use the same standards to assign credit/blame on possessions as many other people do; therefore, my numbers will almost certainly differ from other sources. Feel free to post alternative numbers, and to ask for clarification at any point.
My method for writing these breakdowns has changed since the last series. The biggest difference is that I am now charting EVERY Spurs defensive possession for each game, as opposed to the last series, where I just charted the possessions of the Thunder’s Big Four. I hope that my doing so will allow for us to see a more-complete picture of how each Spur impacts the game on that end. I am also incorporating a second set of stats for each of the Heat’s Big Three covering where they attacked from for each possession they ended. If that sounds confusing, it will hopefully make more sense after we get to the first example.
Total Defensive Stats:
| Game 1 |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
| Duncan |
13 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
17 |
1.307692 |
| Leonard |
14 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
15 |
1.071429 |
| Splitter |
12 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
0.583333 |
| Parker |
8 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
1.125 |
| Green |
17 |
3 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
11 |
0.647059 |
| Diaw |
12 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
14 |
1.166667 |
| Mills |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| Ginobili |
16 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
0.625 |
| Belinelli |
6 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
99 |
37 |
41 |
11 |
16 |
95 |
0.959596 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I’ll talk about my general thoughts later in the post. But damn, Green and Manu did work defensively. Splitter was pretty amazing, too, despite lapsing a few times on Bosh.
Numbers Against Key Heat Players:
| James |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
|
| Leonard |
9 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
1.111111 |
|
| Splitter |
3 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Green |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0.666667 |
|
| Diaw |
7 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
11 |
1.571429 |
|
| Belinelli |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
24 |
9 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
25 |
1.041667 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defender |
Spot |
Result |
Points |
|
Continued from previous column... |
| Leonard |
Break |
M |
2 |
|
Diaw |
Break |
M |
2 |
| Leonard |
Block |
M |
2 |
|
Ginobili |
Wing |
F |
N/A |
| Leonard |
Block |
TO |
0 |
|
Leonard |
Corner |
F |
N/A |
| Leonard |
Wing |
M |
2 |
|
Green |
S. Corner |
TO |
0 |
| Leonard |
Wing |
F |
1 |
|
Belinelli |
Block |
M |
2 |
| Green |
Elbow |
X |
0 |
|
Diaw |
Corner |
T |
3 |
| Diaw |
Wing |
X |
0 |
|
Leonard |
Break |
X |
0 |
| Splitter |
Rim |
X |
0 |
|
Belinelli |
Wing |
X |
0 |
| Diaw |
Wing |
X |
0 |
|
Green |
Break |
F |
2 |
| Leonard |
Wing |
TO |
0 |
|
Leonard |
Wing |
T |
3 |
| Diaw |
Wing |
M |
2 |
|
Leonard |
Corner |
X |
0 |
| Diaw |
Wing |
F |
2 |
|
Diaw |
Corner |
X |
0 |
| Continued in the next column... |
|
|
Diaw |
Wing |
M |
2 |
Diaw struggled to defend James mainly because Lebron started attacking Diaw from outside the three-point line on each possession they were matched up. That meant that the help had to come sooner and that the helper had to move farther out. That was fine when Splitter was the center, as he was very much able to stay with James and waste two of his shots at the rim. But if Duncan is the last line of defense, James will be able to score on Diaw any time he wants to.
In general, James liked to attack from the wing/elbow area, so him starting away from the basket wasn’t exclusive to Diaw’s possessions at all. But he seemed more inclined to try to overpower Leonard and Green than he was Diaw. This didn’t work all that well for him, because, as I said, it’s much easier for the Spurs’ defense to collapse on James if his man can stay with him into the paint.
I’d suggest Pop only play Diaw on James if Splitter is in for Duncan. The relative lack of mobility of a Diaw/Duncan small-ball front court is a pretty big weakness.
| Wade |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
|
| Duncan |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Leonard |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Splitter |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Parker |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Green |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
|
| Diaw |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Ginobili |
6 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
|
| Belinelli |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
2.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
21 |
8 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
19 |
0.904762 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defender |
Spot |
Result |
Points |
|
|
|
|
|
| Green |
Break |
TO |
0 |
|
Green |
Top |
X |
0 |
| Green |
Block |
X |
0 |
|
Green |
Rim |
M |
2 |
| Splitter |
Elbow |
X |
0 |
|
Belinelli |
Wing |
T |
3 |
| Ginobili |
Corner |
M |
2 |
|
Parket |
FT Line |
X |
0 |
| Ginobili |
Elbow |
X |
0 |
|
Diaw |
S. Corner |
TO |
0 |
| Ginobili |
Block |
M |
2 |
|
Ginobili |
Wing |
X |
0 |
| Parker |
Corner |
M |
2 |
|
Diaw |
S. Corner |
X |
0 |
| Green |
Corner |
F |
2 |
|
Ginobili |
FT Line |
M |
2 |
| Green |
Block |
TO |
0 |
|
Ginobili |
Key |
X |
0 |
| Belinelli |
Elbow |
M |
2 |
|
Ginobili |
FT Line |
X |
0 |
| Ginobili |
Elbow |
M |
2 |
|
Leonard |
Corner |
X |
0 |
Obviously, it’s too early to tell which wing defender will be the best Wade stopper. Wade saw a variety of defenders and had mixed results against all but Beli. I like the way that he and Manu compete against each other, so I’m fine with Ginobili getting the nod when he’s out there. Green got off to a better start against Wade than he did in Game One last year. We’ll see if that continues. Also, Wade better be able to roast Diaw in subsequent games, or else the Heat have no chance to overcoming the Spurs.
| Bosh |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
|
Defender |
Spot |
Result |
Points |
| Duncan |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
1.5 |
|
Splitter |
Wing |
M |
2 |
| Leonard |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
|
Leonard |
Corner |
T |
3 |
| Splitter |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
1.75 |
|
Splitter |
Corner |
T |
3 |
| Parker |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Ginobili |
FT Line |
X |
0 |
| Green |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
Duncan |
Wing |
X |
0 |
| Diaw |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Duncan |
Wing |
M |
2 |
| Ginobili |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Diaw |
Elbow |
X |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Splitter |
Corner |
TO |
0 |
| Total |
13 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
18 |
1.384615 |
|
Splitter |
FT Line |
M |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ginobili |
Elbow |
F |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Duncan |
Corner |
TO |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
Block |
M |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Duncan |
Wing |
T |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parker |
S. Corner |
X |
0 |
The Spurs need to go ahead and close hard on Bosh pretty much every time. Chris’ three makes came off soft-closes by Leonard, Splitter and Duncan, including a four-point play on Tim’s close. His only miss from three came on Tim’s hard-close. I don’t know why the Spurs took the
ElNono approach in Game One, but let’s hope they don’t do it again.
| Allen |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
| Duncan |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
| Leonard |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| Parker |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| Green |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1.5 |
| Mills |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| Ginobili |
4 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0.5 |
| Belinelli |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
13 |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
16 |
1.230769 |
The fact that the Spurs gave up 16 points to Allen isn’t as concerning as the fact that they gave him 13 possessions. Ginobili in particular benefitted from being the “defender” during three no-close misses. Belinelli got the benefit of a miss as well. Green himself didn’t really get lucky with Allen. Ray only took two shots in the second half when Danny was on him. The first was a drive where Ray beat him to the middle but missed after Tim pressured the shot. The second miss was the result of Green closing hard on Allen, forcing him to reset. Ray then tried to shoot the three again, but Danny had recovered from his fly-by and pestered Allen into the miss at preserved the Spurs’ 99-95 lead.
How the Spurs guard Allen going forward is a topic for discussion. The most important thing a defender needs to do in order to check Allen is stay with him and not allow clean shots. Ideally, this would be a match-up that’d work for Mills, but he got wasted on a screen the only time he got the assignment. I’d like a bigger sample size before judging that strategy. The Spurs had a level of success switching screens, but with Ray being much improved inside the arc, he can make a defender pay for closing out of control, which happened a couple of times.
| Lewis |
Poss. |
Makes |
Misses |
Fouls |
TOs |
Points |
PPP |
| Duncan |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1.5 |
| Splitter |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Parker |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| Green |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diaw |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| Ginobili |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
10 |
4 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
1 |
I probably won’t cover Lewis every game, but I thought he did enough to talk about in this breakdown. Splitter did fine on him, but everyone else has to make sure to get their closes right.
General Takeaways:
-Danny Green’s rotations were exceptional in Game One. He sank into the lane to force five misses (two on Chalmers, two on Lewis and his block on Andersen). He collected two steals by jumping passes in the paint, in addition to forcing an additional turnover after sinking to the baseline to help out Leonard on James. Lebron couldn’t complete the Hammer play because Danny took away the passing angle. From a team-defensive perspective, this was the best game I’d seen Green play.
-Manu was a pest on defense. He forced three turnovers by collecting drawing two offensive fouls and collecting a steal. (The box score credits him with two steals, but I gave his first one to Leonard since Kawhi blocked James’ view.) As I said above, his numbers are helped by Allen going cold for a stretch. But in a way that’s better, since I think Manu can repeat this level of defensive performance.
-Duncan may well struggle defensively in this series. He definitely didn’t start off on the right foot in Game One, if his PPP allowed is any indication. The reasons behind this are well established. Tim is elite when he can stay in the pain and protect the rim. He’s poor when he has to leave the paint to hedge on PnRs or close out on shooters. This wasn’t like some the previous games in the post-season where Duncan was consistently inadequate. The Heat allowed Tim to stay in his comfort zone quite a bit, and he rarely failed when he was there. But I think it’s just going to get tougher for him as the series goes on.
-Parker, Diaw and Leonard each put up an above-average PPP allowed (which is a negative thing). For the latter two, the reason for that is the best player who’s ever lived. They can get a break for that . In Parker’s case, it really wasn’t anything he did. He got scored on once each by four different players. I’d caution against assuming Tony got beaten or anything like that.
-It’s kind of worrisome that the Spurs actually had a pretty strong defensive performance against the Heat and still struggled to put the game away. I know about the Spurs’ turnovers, and I do think it could all end up being a wash. But the Heat missed shots they should have made, and they probably will make tomorrow or when the series shifts to Miami. There are a couple of tweaks Pop can make to improve the numbers, but they wouldn’t move the needle that much. This is going to be a high-scoring series.
All right. I know this was a REALLY long post. I hope some of you managed to stick with me for this long. Feedback is appreciated. If you have any questions/challenges, let me know.