Advanced statistics: Spurs in 4 is more likely than any outcome in which Heat win

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Originally Posted by Uriel

It's not! These projections were made BEFORE Game 1 using ESPN's new Real-Plus Minus stat.

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Using what exactly? RS matchup outcomes? SOS vs record? Individual PER and mpg? HCA? What?

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Originally Posted by DMC

Using what exactly? RS matchup outcomes? SOS vs record? Individual PER and mpg? HCA? What?

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Using the playoff data set. They projected the likely rotations and minute distribution in the Finals based on this data set and used RPM to measure the strength of each team and calculate the probability of winning.

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

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Originally Posted by dbreiden83080

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

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99

winning game two would be huge as Miami never loses twice in a row in the playoffs ... with HCA we can still pull it off, but going up 2:0, man I would love that

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Originally Posted by dg7md

Not "short" but, we played utterly terrible and found a way to win by 15, with or without LeBron that's an incredible. 23 turnovers is not something we will repeat...

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Credit Miami's D for a lot of turnovers, but the problem is they cannot maintain that D on that level for an entire game much less a long series.

And credit to the spurs for making them work so hard every possession.

I think game 1 shows exactly why it's possible. The Spurs turned it over that many times and still won. They're usually not going to turn over the ball that many times. That means more shots at the basket. The Heat probably lost their chance to win. The Spurs are too good offensively for the Heat to slow them down and their defense is good enough to keep the Heat from winning. For the Heat to have a chance of winning they will need to keep the Spurs below 100. If the Spurs continue to execute their offense they have enough weapons that should be no problem.

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Originally Posted by dbreiden83080

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

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Yeah Pop outcoached himself there. Defied the odds. Most coaches would have put TD out there and got the win. It should have been pretty simple coaching. You put out your best defensive and rebounding unit. It's useless without both. You play your best defenders but no rebounders and you never get the rebound on the miss. You play your best rebounders and you never get the other team to miss. However if you were to choose one it would be better to go with your best rebounders. You're hoping for a miss so when that happens you're going to need to get the rebound.

I don't think percentages work well where individual decisions come into play. Even God has had a hard time with that one.

no way does the NBA allow this to be a sweep. they want their money.

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Originally Posted by weeks

no way does the NBA allow this to be a sweep. they want their money.

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Winner

Spurs in 6

I'm not a big fan of stats , I just like how the Spurs maintained their focus in the 4th quarter last game, they showed the mindset of a team champion.
The Spurs'll be fine, they'll win this ring. Keep the defensive intensity and play smart :flag: