Pick-3: 2015 Free Agency

I thought this could be a fun little thread to talk about during the dead time between now and the World Cup.

We all know that the Spurs are in line for at least a couple of substantial changes to their roster. This is because the vast majority of the players currently in Silver and Black are set to be free agents after this up-coming season. However, the extent to which the main rotation will be altered is up in the air. Depending on who retires, who the team wants to back and the value of the contracts any returning players get, we could see a nearly complete return of the current roster, a 60-percent turnover or something in between. As a result of that uncertainty, I have made three scenarios for cap space that the team may have going into next July:

1: $20-Million, Full Max -- The assumption here is that Tim and Manu retire (or one takes the room exception or a min salary) and no one other than Green re-signs. It also assumes Leonard does not get an extension this off-season and that the Spurs don't use their full MLE for anything longer than a one-year contract.

2: $9 Million - $14 Million, Very Good Vet FA -- The main way this would happen is if Kawhi re-ups for the max this summer. This may very well happen for reasons several posters have pointed out recently. I'd peg an extension as being slightly more likely than not, honestly. The other way it could happen is if Tim and/or Manu reups next off-season for more than the min or room exception. If they want to keep playing in a Spurs uniform, you can believe that they would both be given blank checks. Seeing as Tim looks like he could play another three years, I'd say that makes this scenario even more likely.

3: No Space, MLE: This would happen either if all three of the things in 2 were to occur (Kawhi extension and Tim and Manu reupping) or if a combination of those occurs and someone like Daye, Baynes or Beli remain with the team beyond this season while getting a substantial pay raise. This is a likelier scenario than people may want to believe. If there was anything new to take from this off-season it's that the FO will keep this team together without a second thought to future cap space. When you factor in the two exceptions, Jean-Charles coming over and a cap hold for next year's pick, it would only take about $10 Million in reupped contracts for the Spurs to be over the cap next July.


The point of this thread is to pick one potential FA for each scenario. The player just has to be reasonably likely to hit the market (like having a PO or being in the last year of a rookie deal but not in line for an extension) to qualify.

For example, my picks:

1: Aldridge, 2: Brook Lopez (EDIT: changed from David West), 3: Seraphin



TL;DR: Just read the thread. It's not that long.

What are the available FA for that year?

I think #2 is likely if we don't win a championship next year, and #3 likely if we do repeat.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

What are the available FA for that year?

I think #2 is likely if we don't win a championship next year, and #3 likely if we do repeat.

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/99...ents-2014-2015

The right column, although obviously, some players have extended and aren't actually going to be FAs.

Working within the realm of possibilities for all three options (even if No 2 is the most probable, in my opinion):

a) Kevin Love (if the Cavs come up short this year).
b) Amir Johnson for a contract starting with $9 million/year. And Duncan (for sure) returning, while Manu might come back.
c) Jimmy Butler/ DeMarre Carroll if Manu retires. Omer Asik if TD retires.

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Originally Posted by Spursfanfromafar

c) Jimmy Butler/ DeMarre Carroll if Manu retires. Omer Asik if TD retires.

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Love the idea of Amir. I had no idea his contract was up. The Spurs could finally correct a wrong from years ago.

I don't get your choices for c), however. Do you really think Butler and/or Asik will make less than the MLE next off-season? I don't. I could see them both getting deals averaging eight figures, due to hype at least. Carroll would be a solid choice, though.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/99...ents-2014-2015

The right column, although obviously, some players have extended and aren't actually going to be FAs.

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Thanks.

#1 Marc Gasol
#2 Robin Lopez
#3 Nick Collison

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Love the idea of Amir. I had no idea his contract was up. The Spurs could finally correct a wrong from years ago.

I don't get your choices for c), however. Do you really think Butler and/or Asik will make less than the MLE next off-season? I don't. I could see them both getting deals averaging eight figures, due to hype at least. Carroll would be a solid choice, though.

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Butler, I think, will get the Wes Matthews treatment. Good enough for full MLE, I thought. Asik was a long shot.

1. Al Jefferson, (I'm sucker for bigs with great post play, Big Al is 5 months older than L.A both are 29) LaMarcus Aldridge

2. Paul Milsap , Roy Hibbert (Think Pop could crack the code, still a great rim protector but can be Jekyll & Hyde on the glass and on offense in general)

3. Jordan Hill (over payed but on a team option and very productive, (21 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 54.9% FG) Brandon Bass (I've always of liked his game) Al Farouq Aminu

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Thanks.

#1 Marc Gasol
#2 Robin Lopez
#3 Nick Collison

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I like Collison a lot,a bit old for my list though (he'd be 34 by next off season) but was a underrated reason why OKC beat us in '12. He lateral quickness allowed him to slide over and cut off Splitter and drives from Parker and Ginobili.

I find myself intrigued by Brook Lopez for a contract on the high end of 2 or the very low end of 1. He's a true center, so his fit with Splitter would not be ideal. But he's a tremendous offensive big who can score from anywhere inside the arc and is better defensively than he gets credit for. Obviously, the biggest concern is his injury history. But that's also a reason why he would possibly be available next year. If he could be had for a $31M/2 $42M/3 or a $64M/4 with the last year non-guaranteed, I'd be pretty excited about the team's prospects for several years.

1-Nobody.
Historically the stars FA's aren't willing to play in San Antonio. Also they won't sign if in their 2nd year, Pop/Tim/Manu are gone
2-Dragic, Millsap
3-Gerald Green

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Originally Posted by wildchild

1-Nobody.
Historically the stars FA's aren't willing to play in San Antonio. Also they won't sign if in their 2nd year, Pop/Tim/Manu are gone
2-Dragic, Millsap
3-Gerald Green

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So you wouldn't want a max player? This thread isn't about correctly predicting what's going to happen (for you'd be correct about 1 in that case). It's about picking who you'd like to see the team get in each scenario.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

So you wouldn't want a max player? This thread isn't about correctly predicting what's going to happen (for you'd be correct about 1 in that case). It's about picking who you'd like to see the team get in each scenario.

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Sorry, I'm just trying to be realistic but you're right so...1-Love

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Originally Posted by cd021

I like Collison a lot,a bit old for my list though (he'd be 34 by next off season) but was a underrated reason why OKC beat us in '12. He lateral quickness allowed him to slide over and cut off Splitter and drives from Parker and Ginobili.

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I'll take him for the MLE. Basically taking over the Bonner role.

Fat Gasol
Amir Johnson
Mike Miller

I think Tim re-signs for something like 2yrs/15 mil and Manu for 2yrs/9 mil. After re-signing Green and extending Kawhi for the max the Spurs would be left with the MLE only. I don't expect them to sign a FA with cap space money, even if they have some left, and then go over the cap with Leonard - that's something a team like the Knicks or Lakers could afford to do, but not the Spurs.

As for the scenarios :
1. Lopez
2. Split between 2 or 3 players
3. Split the MLE

Listing first and second choice for each level.

1. a) Marc Gasol b) Aldridge
2. a) Afflalo b) Stoudemire (1 year deal only)
3. a) Mike Dunleavy Jr b) Darrell Arthur

I would have included Deng and Miller in categories 2 and 3 respectively, but I think they will end up opting in and not be free agents next summer.

Stoudemire would be used to keep our flexibility going forwards if there is nobody else we like. Give him a 1 year deal, see if he can stay healthy and if he fits in the system. If it doesn't work out he comes off the books in 2016 and with Timmy and Manu certainly retiring by then we'll probably have cap space to look for another free agent.

1 Marc Gasol
2 a) Brook Lopez b) Amir Johnson
3 a) Brandan Wright b) Brandon Bass

I just realized all of my picks are bigs.

I disagree with OP. I actually think #1 is the most likely scenario of the 3.

More to the point, if #1 does indeed transpire, how on earth we can reasonably expect big-name free agents like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge to come to a small market like San Antonio if these same free agents have historically opted to re-sign with their current teams or move on to a bigger market? This is especially less likely considering free agents would have virtually no interest in a playing for a Spurs team that would no longer feature Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili.

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Originally Posted by Uriel

I disagree with OP. I actually think #1 is the most likely scenario of the 3.

More to the point, if #1 does indeed transpire, how on earth we can reasonably expect big-name free agents like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge to come to a small market like San Antonio if these same free agents have historically opted to re-sign with their current teams or move on to a bigger market? This is especially less likely considering free agents would have virtually no interest in a playing for a Spurs team that would no longer feature Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

So you wouldn't want a max player? This thread isn't about correctly predicting what's going to happen (for you'd be correct about 1 in that case). It's about picking who you'd like to see the team get in each scenario.

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Originally Posted by Robz4000

Fat Gasol
Amir Johnson
Mike Miller

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Mike Miller ? dude will be in wheel chair in 2015

#1 Paul Milsap
#2 Paul Milsap
#3 Paul Milsap

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Originally Posted by wildchild

1-Nobody.
Historically the stars FA's aren't willing to play in San Antonio. Also they won't sign if in their 2nd year, Pop/Tim/Manu are gone

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Nobody want to play in SA because TD is still active and he will get all the spotlight. If he retires, there will be space for a star in the team and will be easier to get top free agents.

1. Marc Gasol/LaMarcus Aldridge
2. Brook and Robin Lopez
3. Glen Rice Jr/Jimmer Fredette/Tyler Hansbrough

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Originally Posted by PingPong

Nobody want to play in SA because TD is still active and he will get all the spotlight. If he retires, there will be space for a star in the team and will be easier to get top free agents.

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I think the top free agents like and want to play in big markets but I'm glad to read your optimistic point of view.

If the best PF of all time and one of the best coaches in NBA history not served as a powerful incentive to play here, I'm not sure how Tim's retirement will increase our chances to sign star FA's, San Antonio will be a small-market-rebuilding team.

1) Brooks Lopex, IMO, he is the only that deserves this kind of money.
2) Tobias Harris
3) Alec Burks

Theres a chance my 2nd and 3rd picks get a lot of money.

1. Anthony Davis/Kevin Love
2. Bradley Beal/Paul Millsap
3. Anthony Bennett/John Henson/Mirza Teletovic

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Originally Posted by FireMicoHalili

1. Anthony Davis/Kevin Love
2. Bradley Beal/Paul Millsap
3. Anthony Bennett/John Henson/Mirza Teletovic

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All these are Team Options on their rookie contracts, the 2012 draft class hits restricted free agency 2016

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Originally Posted by Richie

All these are Team Options on their rookie contracts, the 2012 draft class hits restricted free agency 2016

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...oops. Just plucked my personal favorites off the list :lol sorry mate

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Originally Posted by Richie

All these are Team Options on their rookie contracts, the 2012 draft class hits restricted free agency 2016

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In that case:
1. Kevin Love
2. Roy Hibbert/Paul Millsap/Jeff Green
3. Mirza Teletovic

Brook Lopez would probably be better as a 4 tbh. He'd be excellent alongside Splitter

If TD/Manu retire, then Milsap/Gerald Green to replace them.

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Originally Posted by FireMicoHalili

In that case:
1. Kevin Love
2. Roy Hibbert/Paul Millsap/Jeff Green
3. Mirza Teletovic

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Teletovic is a great shout actually, he'd be a perfect replacement for Bonner. He's tough as nails too, one of my favourite non-Spurs players, more than a little bit because of his reaction to Lebrons tough guy routine.

I'm surprised you'd take Hibbert over Millsap too.

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Originally Posted by wildchild

I think the top free agents like and want to play in big markets but I'm glad to read your optimistic point of view.

If the best PF of all time and one of the best coaches in NBA history not served as a powerful incentive to play here, I'm not sure how Tim's retirement will increase our chances to sign star FA's, San Antonio will be a small-market-rebuilding team.

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If you want a franchise player, You will get the star, the #1 team option, not just one more player. If you want valuable role players, You'll have to pay. That's not the case of SAS. Just it. If I was a star player I won't to play in a team wich already has a legend, a star because I want to be the #1, the protagonist, the franchise player, not an luxury role player.

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

Brook Lopez would probably be better as a 4 tbh. He'd be excellent alongside Splitter

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I'm not so sure, Lopez is great in the post and it would be too congested with Splitter in there. They could play together, Brook is a decent mid range shooter, but it would hamstring his best asset which is post scoring.

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

Brook Lopez would probably be better as a 4 tbh. He'd be excellent alongside Splitter

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He and Chago would be interchangeably like Duncan and Splitter are now. I don't think Lopez is mobile at all.

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Originally Posted by Richie

I'm not so sure, Lopez is great in the post and it would be too congested with Splitter in there. They could play together, Brook is a decent mid range shooter, but it would hamstring his best asset which is post scoring.

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Chago needs to work on that jumper. It's already pretty good, be he needs more confidence in it.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

He and Chago would be interchangeably like Duncan and Splitter are now. I don't think Lopez is mobile at all.

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he's not, but he's a good rim protector. as far as his scoring ability goes, his game is similar to Duncan's. he has a variety of post moves and can step out and hit the mid-range shots. Duncan and Splitter work well together on both ends, except against teams that play small

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Originally Posted by Richie

Teletovic is a great shout actually, he'd be a perfect replacement for Bonner. He's tough as nails too, one of my favourite non-Spurs players, more than a little bit because of his reaction to Lebrons tough guy routine.

I'm surprised you'd take Hibbert over Millsap too.

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Oh I mentioned those names without a pecking order of any sort. I just noticed Hibbert's been training with Duncan the two summers prior the most recent one, and he might not be a lost cause (yet). Reading too much into it, I know, but as they say, you can't teach height.

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Originally Posted by Brazil

Mike Miller ? dude will be in wheel chair in 2015

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I'm assuming the wheels won't fall off in just a year. Guy looked great for Memphis this past season.

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

he's not, but he's a good rim protector. as far as his scoring ability goes, his game is similar to Duncan's. he has a variety of post moves and can step out and hit the mid-range shots. Duncan and Splitter work well together on both ends, except against teams that play small

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Lopez may actually be a better offensive big than Tim is now. And with better defensive players around him, he should be able to play to his strengths on that end. I agree the combo can work, but the roster will ne vulnerable, as you said.

The Spurs are going to have to find two good bench players next summer in addition to a starting four/five (assumming the oldies move on). It will be a great help if Anderson is ready for a big role as bench creator, and LJC can be the third defender. But the team will need a young, competent center to run with he bench and potentially start when guys rest/get hurt.

A player I haven't heard mentioned but I've just thought about is Thaddeus Young. He has an ETO which means he could be a free agent in 2015, and if he's still with Philly I think he almost certainly takes it. I'd take him at $10m per if Duncan plays another year and the need to another big man isn't paramount.

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Originally Posted by Richie

A player I haven't heard mentioned but I've just thought about is Thaddeus Young. He has an ETO which means he could be a free agent in 2015, and if he's still with Philly I think he almost certainly takes it. I'd take him at $10m per if Duncan plays another year and the need to another big man isn't paramount.

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I like Thad a lot, but I'd prefer Millsap for the same money. I think Paul is further along the developmental curve toward being a true combo-forward than Young is.

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Originally Posted by PingPong

If I was a star player I won't to play in a team wich already has a legend, a star because I want to be the #1, the protagonist, the franchise player, not an luxury role player.

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Mabye...maybe not. I think Wade, Bosh (Heat), Pierce, Garnett (Celtics) readjusted their star-role in order to win a ring.

Brook Lopez would be perfect for us.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I'll take him for the MLE. Basically taking over the Bonner role.

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Minus the 3 point shooting, so, bench scrub 34 YO Collison for the MLE? WTF?

1. Lamarcus Aldridge- tremendous high post player and shooter. His shot is unblockable. Dominates undersized PF's (i.e. Terrence Jones).
2. Marc Gasol- Defensive anchor and unselfish player.
3. Roy Hibbert- If he continues to lack confidence in the way he plays that will really hurt him getting paid for his next contract.
4. Brook Lopez- Excellent low post scorer and a decent defender. Is always injured however.

Also, a BIG NO to Al Jefferson. I used to be an Jefferson backer, but his defense is so bad that it would compromise the Spurs whole defensive scheme.

How would folks feel about Tristan Thompson for a contract at the lowest end of 2? I honestly don't see much good about him, but he's a young PF with some upside, and I doubt Cleveland goes through too much to re-sign him once Love reups.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

How would folks feel about Tristan Thompson for a contract at the lowest end of 2? I honestly don't see much good about him, but he's a young PF with some upside, and I doubt Cleveland goes through too much to re-sign him once Love reups.

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There's no way the Cavs let him go, he's represented by the same people as Lebron. I'd see the Cavs matching $40m/4yr, especially with the cap going up. If they aren't going to match any reasonable offer, they'll probably trade him in the Love deal.

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Originally Posted by Richie

There's no way the Cavs let him go, he's represented by the same people as Lebron. I'd see the Cavs matching $40m/4yr, especially with the cap going up. If they aren't going to match any reasonable offer, they'll probably trade him in the Love deal.

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I just can't seem then signing three max deals and having two more deals that are bigger than $8 Million APY. That's just not sustainable. It's especially unsustainable since the Cavs would be sinking at least $51 Million a year into two positions.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

I just can't seem then signing three max deals and having two more deals that are bigger than $8 Million APY. That's just not sustainable. It's especially unsustainable since the Cavs would be sinking at least $51 Million a year into two positions.

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I agree, but if they are letting someone go I think it'll be Waiters. It's also not a problem they have to deal with until after next season, Waiters isn't a free agent until 2016. I just don't see how a ball dominant guard like Waiters fits in long term with Irving and Lebron.

For 15/16 they'll have Lebron, Love and Irving combining for around $55m, Waiters for $5m and whatever Thompson signs for. If it's $10m they match it without thinking, if it's the max (~$15m) for 4 years they'll probably let him go, but he's not worth that much.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

Minus the 3 point shooting, so, bench scrub 34 YO Collison for the MLE? WTF?

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He's 10 times the defender Bonner will ever be, and likes scrappy play. It's not all about offense.

1 - Marc Gasol. Amazing size, high BBIQ, good defender, mental toughness, playoff proven and doesn't rely on athleticism. Offensively, he can play in the post and has a sweet mid-range game. Raises his game in the playoffs. I love him as a player. Absolutely Spurs material.

2 - Wes Mattews - quite underrated player. Great defender, can defend multiple positions, good slasher and great 3p shooter. I know people are more concerned about another BIG, but a 2/3 rotation with Mattews, Leonard and Green would be absolutely amazing.

3 - Not sure if I see a player in the market worth the full MLE. I wouldn't mind part of it on AK or Scola.

LaMarcus Aldridge maybe the best shot at a top FA. Played at UT Austin. Lives in Dallas. At the end of this season, he will have made 86 Mill. At 29 and not getting a shot at a ring in Portland, he may look to somewhere to get a sizable contract and a shot at a ring. Never count out something like this happening.

1/ since Love is off the market Ricky Rubio would be tempting cause if Chip can fix his shooting then he'd be monster but the idea of playing with 2 PGs prolly doesn't please him or TP... Would be like the Kidd situation all over again.

2/ these contracts tend to the worst value, no real idea anyway

3/ Draymond Green ?

1) Aldridge (kind of "stepping inot Timmys footsteps")
2) Paul Millsap
3) Al Farouq Aminu (another versatile wing...Kawhi, Anderson, Livio, Bertans)

Bump. Looks like Scenario 2 it is. How has the season affect everyone's preferences? I still think Lopez would be a good fit, but he's opting into his deal now. Monroe would be fine for low-end 2 money. Might prefer Amir more, though.

Scenario 3 will happen if Tim/Manu return, so the team may end up stuck with the MLE. It's interesting that there may not even be a rotation (or even roster) spot open unless Baynes moves on. Ideally, Anderson would slide into Beli's spot (or Cory would play the two full time). If Baynes is back, then that's the rotation. Add in LJC and a pick, and that is 14/15 roster spots. No real room for an MLE player.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Bump. Looks like Scenario 2 it is. How has the season affect everyone's preferences? I still think Lopez would be a good fit, but he's opting into his deal now. Monroe would be fine for low-end 2 money. Might prefer Amir more, though.

Scenario 3 will happen if Tim/Manu return, so the team may end up stuck with the MLE. It's interesting that there may not even be a rotation (or even roster) spot open unless Baynes moves on. Ideally, Anderson would slide into Beli's spot (or Cory would play the two full time). If Baynes is back, then that's the rotation. Add in LJC and a pick, and that is 14/15 roster spots. No real room for an MLE player.

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I'm sticking with post #6. Under Scenario 3, I doubt LJC gets a spot and if he does, I expect the pick to be a draft and stash.

Hassan Whiteside: Kind of a knucklehead, but you can't deny his incredible defensive presence and offensive athleticism. Would be a big headache for Pop's Golden Years.

Jonas Jerebko: could be an inexpensive upgrade over Bonner/Ayres.

Brandan Wright: Statisical star as back up, and Pop is better than most at using guys in the right match ups.

I'm liking Greg Monroe more & more, but I think someone will come close to maxing him out and I don't think he's quite that good.

I don't think Aldridge, Gasol, Draymond Green or Millsap are gettable, so I didn't include them.