Prediction: The Spurs will finish with a top 2 seed in the West

Barring a major injury, I predict that the Spurs will finish as the #2 seed in the Western Conference. This, despite the fact that the Spurs are currently the #7 seed and a full 4.0 games back from Portland for #2. Here's why:

As it stands, the Spurs are currently a pedestrian 27-16. However, we know that the poor record can be attributed largely to a brutal schedule, fluke OT losses, and key players being out with injury. But now that the team is healthy again, the Spurs are back to playing the dominant basketball (+14.6 point differential since Kawhi's return) that characterized last year's championship run.

Now, according to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, Dallas and Portland are currently projected to finish the season with 54 wins apiece, nabbing the #2 and #3 seeds respectively, while the Spurs are projected to finish at #7 with only 51 wins. However, we know this model grossly underrates the Spurs due to the aforementioned key injuries, which the model does not take into account when making its projections. Nevertheless, the model is reasonably accurate for the rest of the teams in the West, because all of them have been relatively healthy throughout the year compared with the Spurs.

The Spurs have 39 games left in their schedule. Assuming they go on a 58-win pace for the rest of the year (not unreasonable, given they won 62 games last year, and have a significantly easier schedule ahead of them), they will finish the season with 55 wins, putting them above Portland and Dallas for the #2 spot.

As for OKC, we hopefully won't have to worry about them, since they'll be booted from the playoffs by the Dubs in the first round.

jinx thread tbh

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Originally Posted by horsielove

ultimate jinx thread tbh

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There's no way we catch GS. And they were tough at home. We beat them 3x in GS that series. But they are older now and more mature. Still, tough seeing them going the distance. It looks like they will draw OKC in the first round.

The Hollinger stuff will even out soon because it weights the most recent 25% of the season (once you're past the halfway mark) more heavily. Once the Spurs have played 10-12 games with a healthy squad (knock on wood), the injury problems won't be so apparent in the rankings.

It's strange to have just 4 games in the loss column separate 2nd from 7th. With so many teams just ahead of the Spurs, they will have to play each other many times, so if the Spurs can take care of business against an easy schedule, rising 2-3 spots shouldn't be difficult. Getting all the way to #2, though, is a tall order. I'll predict a #4 seed.

As I said in the other thread MEM and DAL are not going to lose many games. The Spurs will have a tough enough time even finishing 2nd seed in their DIVISION.

It would take more than a small miracle and a big injury, so I think it's safe to say no way Spurs finish 2nd.

GSW
MEM/DAL
SAS/HOU
POR/OK/LAC

I think they'll finish with 54-56 wins. If they get to that total with a healthy squad, I'll be more than happy.

If I'm going to wish for more than that, I'd like their side of the bracket to include Portland, Memphis, and the Clippers. The other side would have GS, OKC, the Mavs and the Rox.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

I think they'll finish with 54-56 wins. If they get to that total with a healthy squad, I'll be more than happy.

If I'm going to wish for more than that, I'd like their side of the bracket to include Portland, Memphis, and the Clippers. The other side would have GS, OKC, the Mavs and the Rox.

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1.Dubs
2.Spurs
3.Memphis
4.Rox
5.Mavs
6.Clippers
7.Blazers
8.OKC

Can't get better than that, realistically :tu

Prediction: We are going back2back

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Originally Posted by FkLA

Prediction: We are going back2back

:flag:

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mahnigga.jpg

Yessssssssssssss!!!!!! I see a back to back in the future...This team lost a lot of close games in spite of the injuries. I think they are once again being under estimated. Let's sit back and enjoy the ride.....The Drive for Five was great......But Seeking The Bliss Of Six is EVEN BETTER!

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Originally Posted by BG_Spurs_Fan

1.Dubs
2.Spurs
3.Memphis
4.Rox
5.Mavs
6.Clippers
7.Blazers
8.OKC

Can't get better than that, realistically :tu

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That would be pretty favorable. Replacing OKC with the Suns might even be better (even though it gives the Dubs an easier opener, it eliminates one of the major threats to the Spurs.)

Just two weeks ago, people were debating whether the Spurs would win 50 this season-- that seems laughable now. I see them finishing in the 2 to 4 range, but if the Warriors experience any missed time from Curry-- even just 7-10 games-- it's definitely possible for the Spurs to reach #1.

I don't think we'll get higher than 3 tbh

I totally butchered that.

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Originally Posted by ThaBigFundamental21

Okc won't finish 8th. They will be at least 7. Do you truly believe Okc isn't going to pass Phoenix??? I think everyone here is praying Okc and GS meet in the first RD, and it ain't happenin. Its more likely the Spurs finish 2 and Okc finishes 7. The Clips drop to 8. Chew on that.

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OKC needs to pass Phoenix to get 8th seed. they would need to pass San Antonio or the Clippers to get 7. Chew on that

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Originally Posted by hater

OKC needs to pass Phoenix to get 8th seed. they would need to pass San Antonio or the Clippers to get 7. Chew on that

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I saw that. I misread the standings. For some reason I already thought OKC was already 8. I guess its plausible. I know it's a long shot. But maybe the Clippers fall.

The Spurs will be 3 or 4 by the all-star break. Getting to number 2 by the end of the regular season is quite possible.

http://i1145.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2944c769.jpg

My original prediction at the very beginning of the season was 1st or 2nd seed. Obviously, GS will have #1, but hey... no complaints from me. We'll just have to wait and see...

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

The Spurs will be 3 or 4 by the all-star break. Getting to number 2 by the end of the regular season is quite possible.

http://i1145.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2944c769.jpg

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Cheers!:toast That's very interesting. I could see us passing the Rockets and Clippers before the break.

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Originally Posted by hater

As I said in the other thread MEM and DAL are not going to lose many games. The Spurs will have a tough enough time even finishing 2nd seed in their DIVISION.

It would take more than a small miracle and a big injury, so I think it's safe to say no way Spurs finish 2nd.

GSW
MEM/DAL
SAS/HOU
POR/OK/LAC

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IDK, Mem/Dal/Hou are only 4/3/2 game ahead of us respectably in the loss column.

Some upcoming games-

Grizzlies - hosts Toronto, OKC, Atlanta and at Dallas*, Phoenix and OKC*
Rockets - hosts Dallas, Chicago and Portland and at GSW, Phoenix x2, Clippers*
Mavs- hosts Chicago, Memphis, Portland and Clippers and at Houston*, GSW and New Orleans
TrailBlazers- hosts Washington and at Phoenix, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston*

Those guys have much tougher schedules than we do coming up (considering our next like 8 games are at home) and our toughest month is out of the way, and hopefully all the injuries. I think the 2 seed is very much possible. Especially with Aldridge potentially missing some time I remember when we caught OKC at the last minute we were like 3 or 4 games back late in the season and we overtook them with a late surge.

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

The Spurs will be 3 or 4 by the all-star break. Getting to number 2 by the end of the regular season is quite possible.

http://i1145.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2944c769.jpg

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Agreed... Didn't even catch this when I posted :bobo

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Originally Posted by BillMc

Cheers!:toast That's very interesting. I could see us passing the Rockets and Clippers before the break.

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And Portland if LA misses significant time

It's definitely possible as long as the Spurs stay healthy.

:lol all those meltdowns posters had about the Spurs missing the playoffs last month

Just stay healthy... the rest will all come together, IMO

Nah, probably 3rd to 5th after it's all said and done.

:lmao this thread :lol

The next 20 games will pretty much determine if this is possible.

Tonight was a predictable loss, they'll probably have a shot at the 2nd seed, this game didn't mean anything, tbh..

The 2nd seed just lost their star player for the next two months. It's still possible.

We will be lucky to stay within the top 8...

I'd say well be lucky to stay in front of OKC. Them niggas taking every game like a game 7

spurs would be lucky to stay afloat period

I picked the Spurs to win tonight, but a L tonight isn't surprising in the very least. :lol chill guys

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Originally Posted by timtonymanu

The 2nd seed just lost their star player for the next two months. It's still possible.

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This. Aldridge is out for 6-8 weeks. They were going to fall off with him. Without? Look out below.

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Originally Posted by FkLA

Prediction: We are going back2back

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:tu

Low 2 tbh.

1. Warriors
2.Grizzlies
3. Mavs
4. Rockets
5. Spurs
6. Blazers
7. Clippers
8. OKC

2nd Round

Warriors
Grizzlies
Blazers
Spurs

WCF

Spurs
Grizzlies

WCF Champs

Spurs

I'm guessing it will end up:

1- Golden State
2- Dallas
3- Memphis
4- San Antonio
5- Houston
6- LA Clippers
7- Portland
8- OKC

They will be around 3-6...

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Originally Posted by Malik Hairston

I'm guessing it will end up:

1- Golden State
2- Dallas
3- Memphis
4- San Antonio
5- Houston
6- LA Clippers
7- Portland
8- OKC

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Facing Rockets in the first round and Thunder in 2nd round would be brutal.

KL is back.
Despite tonight's game we will be better than 7th.

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Originally Posted by apalisoc_9

They will be around 4-7...

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Originally Posted by Seventyniner

The Hollinger stuff will even out soon because it weights the most recent 25% of the season (once you're past the halfway mark) more heavily. Once the Spurs have played 10-12 games with a healthy squad (knock on wood), the injury problems won't be so apparent in the rankings.

It's strange to have just 4 games in the loss column separate 2nd from 7th. With so many teams just ahead of the Spurs, they will have to play each other many times, so if the Spurs can take care of business against an easy schedule, rising 2-3 spots shouldn't be difficult. Getting all the way to #2, though, is a tall order. I'll predict a #4 seed.

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Originally Posted by hater

As I said in the other thread MEM and DAL are not going to lose many games. The Spurs will have a tough enough time even finishing 2nd seed in their DIVISION.

It would take more than a small miracle and a big injury, so I think it's safe to say no way Spurs finish 2nd.

GSW
MEM/DAL
SAS/HOU
POR/OK/LAC

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Originally Posted by Budkin

I don't think we'll get higher than 3 tbh

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Originally Posted by Beaverfuzz

Nah, probably 3rd to 5th after it's all said and done.

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Originally Posted by apalisoc_9

They will be around 3-6...

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It's easy to think that making the jump from #7 to #2 is an insurmountable task. But as of this writing, the Spurs are only 3 1/2 games back of Memphis for the #2 seed, which really isn't all that much. By comparison, 9 1/2 games separate the #2 and #7 seed in the East.

Getting a top 2 seed in the West this year is an ambitious, but realistic goal.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

I think they'll finish with 54-56 wins. If they get to that total with a healthy squad, I'll be more than happy.

If I'm going to wish for more than that, I'd like their side of the bracket to include Portland, Memphis, and the Clippers. The other side would have GS, OKC, the Mavs and the Rox.

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If your prediction holds, then according to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Spurs will finish with the 2/3 seed.

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Originally Posted by Malik Hairston

I'm guessing it will end up:

1- Golden State
2- Dallas
3- Memphis
4- San Antonio
5- Houston
6- LA Clippers
7- Portland
8- OKC

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In that scenario, Portland would be the 4th seed as a division champ. The Spurs would be the 5th seed, but would have HCA in the first round if they had a better record than Portland.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

In that scenario, Portland would be the 4th seed as a division champ. The Spurs would be the 5th seed, but would have HCA in the first round if they had a better record than Portland.

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Forgot about divisions..damn, that's a weak-ass division, this year..

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

I think they'll finish with 54-56 wins. If they get to that total with a healthy squad, I'll be more than happy.

If I'm going to wish for more than that, I'd like their side of the bracket to include Portland, Memphis, and the Clippers. The other side would have GS, OKC, the Mavs and the Rox.

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They only need to finish the season at .67 to get there. They are .857 since Kawhi's return. Of the remaining games 44% are against .500 or below teams, so I think they should finish higher than that. Assuming they hit their stride on the rodeo road trip like they always have.

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

They only need to finish the season at .67 to get there. They are .857 since Kawhi's return. Of the remaining games 44% are against .500 or below teams, so I think they should finish higher than that. Assuming they hit their stride on the rodeo road trip like they always have.

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They need to play at .694 (25-11) to get to 54 wins, and at .750 (27-9) to get to 56.

9 of the 12 next opponents can beat the Grizz. I would be surprise to seem them go 6-6 over this stretch.

9 of the 12 next opponents can beat the Blazers. I would be surprise to seem them go 6-6 over this stretch as well if not worse without LA.

8 of the next 12 opponents for the Mavs can beat them. I expect them to go at best 8-4.

Same goes for Clips and Rockets. Spurs have the easiest schedule of all the top 9 teams in the WCF (I include OKC b/c I think they sneak in at the #8 seed). Spurs could take #2 seed. With the Blazer losing 5 of their last 7, Rockets losing Howard again, Mav, Grizz and Clips all have tough stretches coming up, If the Spurs go on a similar run like last year, they can take the #2 seed.

With everyone now healthy except for Beli, there is no reason they couldn't.

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Originally Posted by Malik Hairston

I'm guessing it will end up:

1- Golden State
2- Dallas
3- Memphis
4- San Antonio
5- Houston
6- LA Clippers
7- Portland
8- OKC

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Dallas is not getting the #2 seed. They had the easiest schedule of all the WCF teams to start the season. And their schedule is tough the rest of the way. Grizz may get the #2 seed. But the rest of the teams should fall behind the Spurs as they have much more difficult schedules remaining and several have key injuries now.

Going to get some help in one way or another tonight out of MEM/DAL. Frankly, I think the better outcome over the long haul for the Spurs out of that one is a Dallas win. Honestly, if the Mavs can get both ends of this back-to-back (MEM and @HOU), it might be the best long-term outcome for SA. That will delay the Spurs having a chance to move up in the standings a bit (if Dallas were to lose both and the Spurs beat Charlotte, the Spurs and Mavs would be in a tie for 6th in the the West by Thursday), but it will bring Memphis and Houston back to the pack a bit and put the Spurs only 4 back in the loss column from the 2nd seed. The closer the pack stays bunched (after GST) the better chance a hot team has to play its way up the standings fairly quickly.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

Going to get some help in one way or another tonight out of MEM/DAL. Frankly, I think the better outcome over the long haul for the Spurs out of that one is a Dallas win. Honestly, if the Mavs can get both ends of this back-to-back (MEM and @HOU), it might be the best long-term outcome for SA. That will delay the Spurs having a chance to move up in the standings a bit (if Dallas were to lose both and the Spurs beat Charlotte, the Spurs and Mavs would be in a tie for 6th in the the West by Thursday), but it will bring Memphis and Houston back to the pack a bit and put the Spurs only 4 back in the loss column from the 2nd seed. The closer the pack stays bunched (after GST) the better chance a hot team has to play its way up the standings fairly quickly.

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Memphis look a much better team since the return of Randolph and the trade for Green. I think they have the #2 seed pretty much locked unless they go through a slump later.

Realistically, the Spurs, if they dont' suffer any setback, can look to winning the #3 seed in the medium term.

Q: If you're 7-1 in playoff series and been to the Finals last two years, and are defending champs, how do you fly under the radar?

A: Don't worry, the Spurs can do it. :)

After today's games, the Spurs are only 1 game back of DAL for #6, 2 1/2 games back of LAC for #4, and 3 1/2 games back of Portland for #3. There is very little distance separating these teams, and many of them are scheduled to beat each other up in the coming days.

As long as the Spurs continue to take care of business, they could very well be the 3 / 4 seed by the all-star break.

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Originally Posted by mexicanjunior

We will be lucky to stay within the top 8...

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Horse shit. We've won 8 of 10, and are only 4.5 out of second.

After today's games, we've finally moved up to #6. Unfortunately, there's quite a distance now between us and #5, 3.0 games back. The good news is that there's a 3-way tie between #'s 3-5, so we're about as far from #3 as #5 currently.

I was kind of hoping the Spurs would stay 6th or lower and try to break the Hakeem the Pedo-led Rockets' record playoff run, tbh..

wait the spurs are right there just imagine if they had a top 5-10 point guard in the nba

from illiterate to blue text sarcasm? you've come a long way, ducks :lol

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Originally Posted by ElNono

from illiterate to blue text sarcasm? you've come a long way, ducks :lol

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:lol

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Originally Posted by ElNono

from illiterate to blue text sarcasm? you've come a long way, ducks :lol

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his english courses are paying off. :lol

:reading

UPDATE: Unfortunately, I may have been a little overoptimistic with this prediction. Despite getting Leonard back, the Spurs are still stuck at #7 with only 29 games left in the season. At this point, climbing all the way to #2 might be a reach. Fortunately, we're only 3 games back of POR in the loss column

Again, working from from the assumption that the Spurs will go on a 58-win pace the rest of the year (an ambitious, but realistic goal, given that the team is now fully healthy and has an unexacting schedule the rest of the way), the Spurs will finish with 55 wins for the season. Going by Hollinger's Playoff Odds Projection, Memphis will finish the season with 56 wins and the Clippers with 54.

That should be enough for the Spurs to attain the #3 seed by the end of the year. And assuming we face off against Memphis in the 2nd round (a team we have historically owned), we shouldn't need HCA to beat them anyway. Hence, barring a major injury, the Spurs should be able to get back to at least the WCF this year.

Not a horrible prediction. #3 is realistic, and if Memphis hits a skid the Spurs have an outside shot. At this point the Spurs will end up ahead of Houston and OKC, which is really all that matters. They can win anywhere else.

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Originally Posted by Mel_13

I think they'll finish with 54-56 wins. If they get to that total with a healthy squad, I'll be more than happy.

If I'm going to wish for more than that, I'd like their side of the bracket to include Portland, Memphis, and the Clippers. The other side would have GS, OKC, the Mavs and the Rox.

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Good call op tbh

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Originally Posted by Uriel

UPDATE: Unfortunately, I may have been a little overoptimistic with this prediction. Despite getting Leonard back, the Spurs are still stuck at #7 with only 29 games left in the season. At this point, climbing all the way to #2 might be a reach. Fortunately, we're only 3 games back of POR in the loss column

Again, working from from the assumption that the Spurs will go on a 58-win pace the rest of the year (an ambitious, but realistic goal, given that the team is now fully healthy and has an unexacting schedule the rest of the way), the Spurs will finish with 55 wins for the season. Going by Hollinger's Playoff Odds Projection, Memphis will finish the season with 56 wins and the Clippers with 54.

That should be enough for the Spurs to attain the #3 seed by the end of the year. And assuming we face off against Memphis in the 2nd round (a team we have historically owned), we shouldn't need HCA to beat them anyway. Hence, barring a major injury, the Spurs should be able to get back to at least the WCF this year.

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Damn, you should have stuck with your original prediction, good call, tbh:lol..

This would qualify as an all time jinx if we lose to New Orleans; we won't, but still.

I guess though, since someone is bumping those bad apolosic takes that maybe we have counter mojo of bad takes over good. I don't know,I don't play with magic like this.

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Originally Posted by BG_Spurs_Fan

1.Dubs
2.Spurs
3.Memphis
4.Rox
5.Mavs
6.Clippers
7.Blazers
8.OKC

Can't get better than that, realistically :tu

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And now everyone knows that this ranking is not valid because someone had to win the north west div. Lol thunder. Lol guests.

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Originally Posted by K...

And now everyone knows that this ranking is not valid because someone had to win the north west div. Lol thunder. Lol guests.

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I saw that on page 1 and laughed at the idea that all 4 teams from the SW Division and the Pacific runner up finished ahead of the NW Division winner. :lol