Did the quiet Grizzlies beat the star-studded Spurs in free agency?

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/7/1...ncy-2015-chart

That exactly happens when people are required to write some dumb article and they have acces to advanced metrics.

mem will not win 62 games !

no.

This is why friends don't let friends quote advance stats as proof

God damn, can we just fast forward to opening night?

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Originally Posted by Robz4000

God damn, can we just fast forward to opening night?

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Originally Posted by Robz4000

God damn, can we just fast forward to opening night?

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Yes please

tl;dr: advanced stats being used out of context and misinterpreted to make retarded predictions

it's not just win shares

David Locke, the Jazz radio guy who fancies himself an analytics guy complete with his own proprietary stat inventions has said that based on his numbers the Grizzlies will have both a better offense and a better defense than the spurs next year

Win-shares sucks as a stat, and it's certainly not additive, since stats are a zero-sum game in basketball.

What about the fact that the additions of Simmons and the serbian guy did not add up to any win share cause they weren´t in the NBA?

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Originally Posted by ducks

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/7/1...ncy-2015-chart

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LOL.win shares. bullshit

No.

Next question.

Ah the annual "Grizzlies added X washed up wing, they're definitely contenders this year!" take.

Looking forward to the mid-December "Knicks' undrafted rookie is lighting up the league, he's a future star!"




First round fodder.

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Originally Posted by ducks

mem will not win 62 games !

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No doubt at all man, they will win about 55-56 and be our in round one or two.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Win-shares sucks as a stat, and it's certainly not additive, since stats are a zero-sum game in basketball.

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Agreed.

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Originally Posted by objective

it's not just win shares

David Locke, the Jazz radio guy who fancies himself an analytics guy complete with his own proprietary stat inventions has said that based on his numbers the Grizzlies will have both a better offense and a better defense than the spurs next year

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Many teams have in the past, on paper. On the court, not so much.

I'll let our regular season dominance do the talking. The team is rounding out to be a very dominant one in stretches

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Originally Posted by Brian Windhorst

Ah the annual "Grizzlies added X washed up wing, they're definitely contenders this year!" take.

Looking forward to the mid-December "Knicks' undrafted rookie is lighting up the league, he's a future star!"




First round fodder.

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I've never seen a team force-fed into contender status like Memphis (though the Bulls are close). That team's still living off its 2011 upset.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

I've never seen a team force-fed into contender status like Memphis (though the Bulls are close). That team's still living off its 2011 upset.

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To be fair though, other than that Spurs waxing of MEM following The Upset, MEM has been very competitive in most series even when they should have been an underdog. MEM>CHI for sure is what I'm saying.

bleacher report trying to get clicks.

Spurs signed LA, West, Kawhi, Manu, Tim and Danny

Easy no.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

To be fair though, other than that Spurs waxing of MEM following The Upset, MEM has been very competitive in most series even when they should have been an underdog. MEM>CHI for sure is what I'm saying.

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Memphis actually is quite impressive in their ability to pick up good players from the scrap heap.

The stats do a highlight a risk with signing Aldridge for the max and losing so many players. It is unclear if Aldridge will be as efficient as the lost players. He can score and rebound, but is he as efficient?

The Grizzlies are a product of nostalgia, tbh..they remind today's media(most of them grew up on 90s ball) and older fans of the "good ol' days" of slow pace, 2 bigs in the paint + perimeter defenders with no offensive skills, not relying on 3s, etc..they are all so desperate for a team like that to win a title:lol..

Look at the NBA Forum and see how excited Lefty got when the Grizz were up 2-1 on the Warriors, tbh:lmao..looked like a 10-year old that just discovered porn..

Ok next question. I know most people said gasol >lma but now that lma is a spur who wants to backtrack and give a homerish revision to their opinion?


I legitimately think lma in a spurs system will exceed gasol in Memphis.

The real question is did the Grizzlies sign someone that can make a jumpshot?

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Originally Posted by cd98

The real question is did the Grizzlies sign someone that can make a jumpshot?

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I hear Brandon Wright can shoot 4 foot lefty pop-a-shots...

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Originally Posted by Blake

bleacher report trying to get clicks.

Spurs signed LA, West, Kawhi, Manu, Tim and Danny

Easy no.

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+1

If the lakers had signed the exact same lineup the media would already be handing them the championship! With that said I love the fact that the Spurs are still somewhat the underdogs.

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Meanwhile, Memphis lost Kosta Koufos, who earned three Win Shares in 2014-15. They added Matt Barnes (3.5) and Brandan Wright (6.5!) in his stead. That's a net plus-7 Win Shares for the Grizzlies, and when added to their 55 wins from 2014-15 gives them 62 expected wins next season. That eclipses everyone but Golden State. Now, the Wright number looks high per our eyeballs, and the Koufos number seems low. Like I said, it's imperfect. But it's certainly something worth exploring further.

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I like how he says it's worth exploring further and then doesn't explore it further.

But... I didn't realize they signed Matt Barnes. That's actually a really nice pickup for them. He's a douche and isn't starter material for most teams, but that team is scary with wing production.

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Originally Posted by K...

Ok next question. I know most people said gasol >lma but now that lma is a spur who wants to backtrack and give a homerish revision to their opinion?


I legitimately think lma in a spurs system will exceed gasol in Memphis.

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Insider information was that Spurs were interested in Gasol first but realized they couldn't persuade him so they went with Aldridge.

The article is kinda silly because it says based on win shares LMA + West = 8.6+4.3=12.9 and Splitter + Cojo + Marco + Baynes = 4.0+1.8+3.9+2.9 = 12.6. So it looks like a lateral move.

In reality LMA + West = 12.9 and Splitter + Marco = 7.9, and that's what we should be looking at. Because Cojo at 1.8 is same as McCallum at 1.4, and probably Cojo benefits from playing with the spurs. Baynes shouldn't have played that many minutes last year to begin with.

I still think that it will be a race of 4 teams; OKC, Davs, SAS and one of Grizzles, Rockets, and Clippers. Grizzles actually did a good job this off season, I wouldn't be surprised if there were up there with the Spurs and Warriors.

Here's a better article using 'real plus minus': http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...warriors-good/

Does not include numbers for McCallum (Simmons or Marjanovic) but the numbers look great!

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Originally Posted by Maj_G

The article is kinda silly because it says based on win shares LMA + West = 8.6+4.3=12.9 and Splitter + Cojo + Marco + Baynes = 4.0+1.8+3.9+2.9 = 12.6. So it looks like a lateral move.

In reality LMA + West = 12.9 and Splitter + Marco = 7.9, and that's what we should be looking at. Because Cojo at 1.8 is same as McCallum at 1.4, and probably Cojo benefits from playing with the spurs. Baynes shouldn't have played that many minutes last year to begin with.

I still think that it will be a race of 4 teams; OKC, Davs, SAS and one of Grizzles, Rockets, and Clippers. Grizzles actually did a good job this off season, I wouldn't be surprised if there were up there with the Spurs and Warriors.

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Should be more apples with apples. So LMA+West = 12.9 vs Splitter+Baynes = 6.9 ... so 6 difference. Cojo vs McCallum is a wash. Marco is 3.9 which still highlights the loss of that extra shooter (who was absent most of the time in playoffs).

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Originally Posted by ceperez

Here's a better article using 'real plus minus': http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...warriors-good/

Does not include numbers for McCallum (Simmons or Marjanovic) but the numbers look great!

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Yep..one of the starters is a net negative, though, unfortunately..

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Originally Posted by Chinook

I've never seen a team force-fed into contender status like Memphis (though the Bulls are close). That team's still living off its 2011 upset.

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they did make the WCF in '13 too, but yeah i agree

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Originally Posted by ceperez

Here's a better article using 'real plus minus': http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...warriors-good/

Does not include numbers for McCallum (Simmons or Marjanovic) but the numbers look great!

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:lol the spurs rating is dragged down by mulitunov and lalanne, neither of whom will likely be on the roster. they combine for -5.4. tack on reggie williams and that's -8.7 from 3 guys who wont be on the roster

Crapola article.

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Originally Posted by ceperez

Should be more apples with apples. So LMA+West = 12.9 vs Splitter+Baynes = 6.9 ... so 6 difference. Cojo vs McCallum is a wash. Marco is 3.9 which still highlights the loss of that extra shooter (who was absent most of the time in playoffs).

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Makes sense if you look at positions. I looked at minutes played because win shares is supposed to be "position-less".

I agree our bigs this year are way better than last year, and even though it seems Marco left a gap with his 3pt shooting and 3.9 win shares it wont matter.

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

Yep..one of the starters is a net negative, though, unfortunately..

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Sons - I'd be willing to do a bet that TP is a net-positive player this year..

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

Sons - I'd be willing to do a bet that TP is a net-positive player this year..

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I wouldn't be so quick to make that bet, unfortunately. Tony is at that age where speedy PGs start to rapidly decline.

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Originally Posted by Robz4000

I wouldn't be so quick to make that bet, unfortunately. Tony is at that age where speedy PGs start to rapidly decline.

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Well the bet is out there..

Win shares is quickly becoming the most over-rated stat in sports. It's how people like this writer futiley determine that the Grizzlies had the best FA season. I was listening to a podcast the other day on the top 50 NBA players according to the two podcasters. They routinely used win shares as their main determinant. It was sad to listen to.

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Originally Posted by ceperez

Here's a better article using 'real plus minus': http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...warriors-good/

Does not include numbers for McCallum (Simmons or Marjanovic) but the numbers look great!

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Take off the -3.3 for WIlliams, -2.7 for Bonner, -2.5 for Milutinov, -2/9 for Lalanne and it's even better

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

:lol the spurs rating is dragged down by mulitunov and lalanne, neither of whom will likely be on the roster. they combine for -5.4. tack on reggie williams and that's -8.7 from 3 guys who wont be on the roster

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They adjust for minutes played, hence the projected minutes per game column. Guys like Milutinov and Lalanne have practically no effect on the overall team number since they're projected to play a combined 3 mpg.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

Well the bet is out there..

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Might have to take you up on it I guess. Lemme wait til preseason/training camp to see what kinda condition he's in.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

Sons - I'd be willing to do a bet that TP is a net-positive player this year..

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Nah, I don't wanna bet against a player on my own team, tbh..

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

Nah, I don't wanna bet against a player on my own team, tbh..

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:lol

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Originally Posted by Robz4000

Might have to take you up on it I guess. Lemme wait til preseason/training camp to see what kinda condition he's in.

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:lol Where is the value in that for me? So you watch him and he looks awful, then sure you would want to bet. Why would I though?

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

The Grizzlies are a product of nostalgia, tbh..they remind today's media(most of them grew up on 90s ball) and older fans of the "good ol' days" of slow pace, 2 bigs in the paint + perimeter defenders with no offensive skills, not relying on 3s, etc..they are all so desperate for a team like that to win a title:lol..

Look at the NBA Forum and see how excited Lefty got when the Grizz were up 2-1 on the Warriors, tbh:lmao..looked like a 10-year old that just discovered porn..

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They are a rich conference 's Bulls, tbh :lol

I'm with DPG. Maybe I'm just being an optimistic homer, but I refuse to believe Parker will play as poorly as he did last year. I think he'll come back next year and play somewhere around how he did in the 2014 regular season. He won't be an all-star or anything, but he'll at least contribute and won't submarine the damn team every time he steps out on the court like this past year :lol I think replacing Splitter with Aldridge will open up some room in the paint for TP/Kawhi.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

:lol Where is the value in that for me? So you watch him and he looks awful, then sure you would want to bet. Why would I though?

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I'm not 100% confident that he'll be a net-negative, just pointing out that history suggests he may be. I'm hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. The only saving grace is that he'll only be asked to be the third option instead of 1A/1B, which should lessen the burden on his shoulders/stomach...

Well I'm in the camp that it was mostly injury related and not a decline. He looked much better to start the year before the first injury and then never recovered at all (got worse outside of one late stretch). If it was injury and he's in better shape this year, I think he is a positive player.

If I'm wrong and it was decline and/or the start of him always being injured, then ya, it will be bad. He's smart enough though to change things up and find a way.

The Grizz now have their own version (an older version though) of Leonard and Green to defend Curry and Thompson. Tony Allen and Matt Barnes will make it tougher on those guys to score (then there's also Conley they can put on Curry at times). Same can be said if they play the Thunder, guarding Durant and Westbrook. The Grizz will be one of the best defensive teams in the league again this year on the perimeter.

Just gives the Spurs an easier road to the Finals if the Grizz and Warriors/Thunder meet up in the 2nd round; Grizz might just do us a favor.

^^ Barnes and Allen are poor offensive players, though(and Barnes is just a slightly above average defender)..the Warriors were guarding Allen with Bogut in the playoffs:lol..

Having good defensive players that can't play offense doesn't really work in today's league, tbh..

Awww nawww hell naww, Tom ziller up and done it. This guy is talking out of his ass. We need to trout boban out in those tight spandex shorts so when grizz guards drive to the hole their staring at his junk. He will alter more shots that way than trying to go vertical.

It's the woody harrelson theory but with a gay twist. No urban kid from the u.s. is gonna rub up on a big ugly giants junk. Players will go out of their way to avoid physical contact. Beat that grizz.

Screw Memphis. Can't go to a playoff game and then cruise down Beale Street after dark without feeling like your going to get shot. Cesspool of a city for the most part. Food is legit though. But once again, I can get good ribs without getting shot so its not worth it.

Brandan Wright being worth 6.5 wins backing up their two best players :lol

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Originally Posted by timvp

Brandan Wright being worth 6.5 wins backing up their two best players :lol

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It's amazing that so many people still wonder why Brandan Wright only plays like 15 MPG, tbh:lol..there's a reason his role is always relatively limited..

Their FO getting hyped up (i assume the Hollinger factor) despite some few misses: going after washed-up Carter; Green trade etc..Still haven't solved their abysmal shooting woes and are a Conley's ankle twist from drifting away in the West standings ..

Win shares must be the stat NBA video games use when they accept 10x scrub for superstar trades. There's no true evaluation.

:lmao

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

It's amazing that so many people still wonder why Brandan Wright only plays like 15 MPG, tbh:lol..there's a reason his role is always relatively limited..

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He's almost like Ed Davis's twin from a different mother.

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

:lol the spurs rating is dragged down by mulitunov and lalanne, neither of whom will likely be on the roster. they combine for -5.4. tack on reggie williams and that's -8.7 from 3 guys who wont be on the roster

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Even Bonner is -2.7, and RC has already said he won't be back next season. :lol

"advanced metrics"

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Originally Posted by cd98

The real question is did the Grizzlies sign someone that can make a jumpshot?

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Originally Posted by Chinook

I've never seen a team force-fed into contender status like Memphis (though the Bulls are close). That team's still living off its 2011 upset.

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Totally true, in the 2013 Western Conference Finals (the Spurs swept Memphis) while down 0-3, there were posts all over one of their message boards still arguing that Memphis was marketable better than San Antonio and (pick your alternate reality excuse) was the reason why they were down in the series.

not a good article, hmmmmp

No.


Next

Stop all this advanced stats shit ... but everybody who thinks we will just sweep the Grizzlies out of the way is crazy as well.
This is still a very good team ... close games between them and the Spurs are more probable than the Spurs wiping the floor with them.

They got kawhislayer tbh. That's something

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Originally Posted by timvp

Brandan Wright being worth 6.5 wins backing up their two best players :lol

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The same guy who Carlisle had to bench for Dejuan Blair in 2014

The people bashing "advanced metrics" because of Win Shares are being silly, tbh:lol..it's just 1 number that nobody uses as the staple of their argument..

Grizzlies :lol

Don't see the reason for Spurs fans to fear them, even though Tiago is no longer a Spur. Even last year, the Grizzlies barely got by a shorthanded Spurs team twice and were blown out twice when everyone was healthy.

Grizzlies are good, but they aren't gonna be anything more than a WCF team at best.

The CBS Eye On Basketball hipster writers last week on their podcast (Monday or Tuesday show) also didn't like the spurs moves, in fact Matt Moore said the only reason he had the spurs listed among the top 5 "winners" of free agency in his column was because he didn't want to be given a hard time on twitter. But admitted that if not for that, they would not be winners.

Also, he had the Sacramento Kings as a winner.