So who's out?

With the Western Conference so strong, Portland losing a lot of players and the healthy (?) return of KD in OKC. Just wondering who do you think will not qualify for the playoffs in the West?

This is what I have.

These teams are in. (in no particular order)
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies

On the bubble.
New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns

Some hope.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz

Not going anywhere.
Sacramento Kings
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets

The big 6 are set. Below that, I have Pels and Jazz.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

With the Western Conference so strong, Portland losing a lot of players and the healthy (?) return of KD in OKC. Just wondering who do you think will not qualify for the playoffs in the West?

This is what I have.

These teams are in. (in no particular order)
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies

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Crazy to think two of these teams will not advance past the 1st round.

Top 6 is locked barring injury and the Pelicans are a near-lock IMO..

Utah is going to be 8th if Gobert's body doesn't break like many of the similar-built players of the past, tbh..continuity is huge for regular season records, and they have more talent than the Mavs and Suns IMO..

I would be pretty surprised if Dallas makes it..Carlisle gives them hope, but their roster is mostly trash, and 2 of their top 3 players are coming off major injuries..

Kings/Wolves would need everything to go right to make a run, and Portland/LA/Denver have no shot at the playoffs..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

With the Western Conference so strong, Portland losing a lot of players and the healthy (?) return of KD in OKC. Just wondering who do you think will not qualify for the playoffs in the West?

This is what I have.

These teams are in. (in no particular order)
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies

On the bubble.
New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns

Some hope.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz

Not going anywhere.
Sacramento Kings
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets

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Memphis Grizzlies should move to the East.

With the Bucks moving to the West.

Of course, no team in the east wants to move to the west and lose a playoff berth.

Still not sold on Gobert/Hayward/Favors with the Jazz. Carlisle/Cuban will find a way to make the Mavs competitive, especially for Dirk.
I actually think one of these teams, the Lakers or Wolves, will surprise us and still be in the mix in March. Too much dysfunction with the Kings. George Karl won't make it through Christmas.

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

Top 6 is locked barring injury and the Pelicans are a near-lock IMO..

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How true that is despite Dell Demps being an ignoramus.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

Top 6 is locked barring injury and the Pelicans are a near-lock IMO..

Utah is going to be 8th if Gobert's body doesn't break like many of the similar-built players of the past, tbh..continuity is huge for regular season records, and they have more talent than the Mavs and Suns IMO..

I would be pretty surprised if Dallas makes it..Carlisle gives them hope, but their roster is mostly trash, and 2 of their top 3 players are coming off major injuries..

Kings/Wolves would need everything to go right to make a run, and Portland/LA/Denver have no shot at the playoffs..

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This.

Kings will be much better this season. Could get 8th spot

:lol Lakers will be lucky to win 25 games

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Originally Posted by MaNu4Tres

Crazy to think two of these teams will not advance past the 1st round.

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Even crazier to think that some of these teams could be a top seed in the East.

On the bubble.
New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns

Some hope.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz

Not going anywhere.
Sacramento Kings
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets

Lakers have no shot at playoffs :lmao Kings are on the bubble, if Boogie wont screw them

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

Carlisle/Cuban will find a way to make the Mavs competitive, especially for Dirk.

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yeah, i'll take the odds the mavericks make it over the jazz.

their roster though:

PF	1. Dirk Nowitzki
	2. Charlie Villanueva
	3. Jeremy Evans
	4. Dwight Powell
	5. Maurice Ndour
	6. Brandon Ashley
C	1. Zaza Pachulia
	2. Salah Mejri
	3. Satnam Singh
	4. Jarrid Famous :wow

Mavs won't be better than the Jazz :lol Utah with Gobert starting is good enough to get an 8th seed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

Still not sold on Gobert/Hayward/Favors with the Jazz. Carlisle/Cuban will find a way to make the Mavs competitive, especially for Dirk.
I actually think one of these teams, the Lakers or Wolves, will surprise us and still be in the mix in March. Too much dysfunction with the Kings. George Karl won't make it through Christmas.

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Look at Utah's record after the Kanter trade ... 19-10 with a +5 point differential (94-89 average). 10 games against West playoff teams, 2 against OKC/PHX, 4 against East playoff teams and 13 against other teams. Not a tough schedule, but still very good trends and amazing defense.

Going with Pelicans and Jazz making the 7/8 spots... Pelicans bring back pretty much the same team who have a top3 player in Davis and pretty good guards... Jazz have a defensive poy candidate in Golbert... Dallas will come up just short by a few games....

If Pelicans have a healthy Jrue Holliday I think they make it.

New Orleans is a lock assuming they stay even remotely healthy.

After that, one of Utah/Dallas/Phoenix will get in. I'm leaning towards Utah, although I really don't like their roster much outside of Hayward/Favors/Gobert.

Dallas is a big question mark. Who knows what Deron Williams will look like, and Matthews is coming off a torn achilles. If both of those guys end up panning out, they'll be in contention for that 8th seed. I do wonder about Dirk...he was so god-awful on defense last year. Dude makes Duncan look fast in comparison :lol Now he'll be another year older. Pachulia is a solid defender but if Chandler couldn't cover Dirk, he sure as hell won't be able to either.

I think Phoenix has some potential. Knight/Bledsoe/Tucker/Morris/Chandler is a pretty nice starting 5, although I think Knight is overrated. Their bench is made up of mainly young guys, so if some of them end up being able to contribute, I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in and got the 8th seed.

I don't think any team outside of those has even a remotely realistic shot.

OKC is a question mark in my mind. People are completely discounting the fact that Jones fractures end careers. If KD isn't 80%, I don't see them making it. Teams seemed to figure out the Russ-centric Thunder, and they got worse as the season wore on.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

OKC is a question mark in my mind. People are completely discounting the fact that Jones fractures end careers. If KD isn't 80%, I don't see them making it. Teams seemed to figure out the Russ-centric Thunder, and they got worse as the season wore on.

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They got worse because Ibaka went down too.

Even if KD ends up missing half the season, they could still very well make playoffs assuming everyone else is healthy.

Pelicans and Jazz. With the new seeding rules, Thunder will be 5th or 6th seed despite winning their Division. I expect a tight race between Rockets and Grizz for 4th and 5th seed.

1. Spurs - Southwest Champs
2. Golden St. - Pacific Champs
3. Clippers
4. Rockets
5. Grizzlies
6. Thunder - Northwest Champs
7. Jazz
8. Pelicans

Spurs
Warriors
Clippers
Healthy OKC

Rockets
Grizzlies

Pelicans
Jazz

Suns
OKC without a healthy Durant

My 2015-2016 WC Projections

1. San Antonio
2. Oakland
3. Los Angeles Of Anaheim
4. Greater Tulsa
5. Memphis
6. Salt Lake City
7. Houston
8. Fort Worth Metro
9. New Orleans
10. Minneapolis
11. Sacramento
12. Phoenix
13. Denver
14. Portland
15. Los Angeles

Good damn the west is even more brutal this year. Injuries would certainly change a lot

Spurs
Warriors
OKC
Clippers
Rockets
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Jazz

Between Mavs/Jazz, I like Williams-Matthews backcourt but they've been dealing with a painful story of injuries.

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Originally Posted by gambit1990

yeah, i'll take the odds the mavericks make it over the jazz.

their roster though:

PF	1. Dirk Nowitzki
	2. Charlie Villanueva
	3. Jeremy Evans
	4. Dwight Powell
	5. Maurice Ndour
	6. Brandon Ashley
C	1. Zaza Pachulia
	2. Salah Mejri
	3. Satnam Singh
	4. Jarrid Famous :wow

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Damn, seems like they have half dozen of what would you expect to be street clothes/end of bunch fillers :lol Yeah, Carlisle can do so much, tbh..They are missing the playoffs barring some major midseason trade..

Pelicans can sneak into the west top 6. Davis can make another leap, especially defensively , into a legit young Duncan type impact player. With a proven bench mind in Gentry, that version of Davis can push a healthy Pels roster to 56+ wins.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Pelicans can sneak into the west top 6. Davis can make another leap, especially defensively , into a legit young Duncan type impact player. With a proven bench mind in Gentry, that version of Davis can push a healthy Pels roster to 56+ wins.

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Pels don't have the system or the talent to do more than crack 50; and that's pushing it. Maybe, if AD took his game to an even higher level is the only way I see them jumping up with the elite teams.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Pels don't have the system or the talent to do more than crack 50; and that's pushing it. Maybe, if AD took his game to an even higher level is the only way I see them jumping up with the elite teams.

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Yes, that's exactly what I said.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

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Yea, I missed that. But I don't see Davis doing more defensively. He was about as elite as it gets last season. I meant offensively. If AD developed more on the post (ala Olajuwon/McHale) and/or made a wing shot fade away from 19 ft more consistently (ala Bird/Jordan), then it's feasible.

Offensively he's already hovering around 30 PER, so not much he can do other than refinement. Defensively, he has the tools to become a DJ level rim protector and DPOY candidate. A singular go-to offensive move combined with a DJ impact on D will get his team into semi-contention.

Warriors
Spurs
Rockets
Thunder
Clippers
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Jazz
---------------
Suns
Mavs
Kings
Wolves
Blazers
Lakers
Nuggets

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Offensively he's already hovering around 30 PER, so not much he can do other than refinement. Defensively, he has the tools to become a DJ level rim protector and DPOY candidate. A singular go-to offensive move combined with a DJ impact on D will get his team into semi-contention.

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Ibaka would be the better comparison considering Ibaka is much better defensively than Jordan is.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gambit1990

yeah, i'll take the odds the mavericks make it over the jazz.

their roster though:

PF	1. Dirk Nowitzki
	2. Charlie Villanueva
	3. Jeremy Evans
	4. Dwight Powell
	5. Maurice Ndour
	6. Brandon Ashley
C	1. Zaza Pachulia
	2. Salah Mejri
	3. Satnam Singh
	4. Jarrid Famous :wow

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Can't see the Mavs making the West PS with that roster

Williams-Barea
Mathews-Harris
Parsons-Anderson
Dirk-
Pachulia-Dalembert

Jazz front court is very solid and should be a top tier defensive team.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Offensively he's already hovering around 30 PER, so not much he can do other than refinement. Defensively, he has the tools to become a DJ level rim protector and DPOY candidate. A singular go-to offensive move combined with a DJ impact on D will get his team into semi-contention.

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You wouldn't think so from a statistical P.O.V. And who knows, maybe he has maxed out in that regard. But I just felt teams were able to bottle him up and that he wasn't as lucid as the stats reflect. I felt like he was often forced to defer to players, who would make low percentage plays when he could have made a quick move and got to his spot on a fadeaway. He's got the length and hops that it can't be defended. But he doesn't shoot those shots with Dirk confidence or even KG confidence. Rather his key offensive strengths are in other areas.

BTW.... Clippers are lame. Who introduces FA's that were with the team on the prior year?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2k2PLLY5RA

Hey, they thought he was a Mav for 5 days... We'd reinroduce Tim too had he verbally committed to Orlando and then reneged, heh.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Hey, they thought he was a Mav for 5 days... We'd reinroduce Tim too had he verbally committed to Orlando and then reneged, heh.

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It's not the reintroduction I have a problem with. It's doing it with all the UFA's that just seems really cheesy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

BTW.... Clippers are lame. Who introduces FA's that were with the team on the prior year?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2k2PLLY5RA

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That's a stacked team!

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Originally Posted by ceperez

That's a stacked team!

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Lots of issues with those guys alone, tbh. Stephenson is an x-factor. But I have to wonder if Pierce is getting too old to really do the job in so many minutes. KL could carve him up at both ends of the floor.

Warriors are the real threat, imo. But I think the Spurs beat the Warriors four out of five times in a series, so I'm feeling good about that all the same.

KL having to check Pierce is a victory for the Clippers to start.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

KL having to check Pierce is a victory for the Clippers to start.

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They don't win the series this year without Barnes, who's gone now. Pierce can't hope to stay in front of any of our wings.

Swap this year's playoff Barnes for playoff Pierce and Clippers win easier. Who does Parker cover on D? Who do leave to help on Blake in the high post?

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

KL having to check Pierce is a victory for the Clippers to start.

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Why is that?

Because Parker has to cover Paul or JJ, and not just only worry about Barnes' inconsistent spotups. Put him on PP, and it's murder in the post. When Blake goes 1-1 from the high post against any of our bigs, where does the help come from?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Because Parker has to cover Paul or JJ, and not just only worry about Barnes' inconsistent spotups. Put him on PP, and it's murder in the post. When Blake goes 1-1 from the high post against any of our bigs, where does the help come from?

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You don't need to double Blake that often when Aldridge, Duncan or West are guarding him, tbh. It was Splitter that he was breaking down consistently.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Swap this year's playoff Barnes for playoff Pierce and Clippers win easier. Who does Parker cover on D? Who do leave to help on Blake in the high post?

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Pierce is a small upgrade on offense but a huge downgrade on defense. I don't see him getting many playoff minutes against us, tbh.

I think Houston has peaked tbh.

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Originally Posted by look_at_g_shred

I think Houston has peaked tbh.

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Me too. People calling them top six / elite. Don't understand that. They've been a first round exit quality team the last two years. They lucked out last year getting as far as they did, imo.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Me too. People calling them top six / elite. Don't understand that. They've been a first round exit quality team the last two years. They lucked out last year getting as far as they did, imo.

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Lawson is an awful fit. I can see him causing a scene because harden takes the last shot instead of him.

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Originally Posted by look_at_g_shred

Lawson is an awful fit. I can see him causing a scene because harden takes the last shot instead of him.

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Lawson is a very borderline starting PG. Hopefully, he's over himself by now.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Lawson is a very borderline starting PG. Hopefully, he's over himself by now.

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He was a Top 5 offensive PG last season, and below average defensively as usual. That's definitely starting material and a surefire all star in the east.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

He was a Top 5 offensive PG last season, and below average defensively as usual. That's definitely starting material and a surefire all star in the east.

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I guess I under-rated him. But I just don't think he's as good as people think. IMO, he's a guy better suited to 20-25 MPG than 35 MPG.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cjw

Look at Utah's record after the Kanter trade ... 19-10 with a +5 point differential (94-89 average). 10 games against West playoff teams, 2 against OKC/PHX, 4 against East playoff teams and 13 against other teams. Not a tough schedule, but still very good trends and amazing defense.

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They still need a scoring punch from either SG or PG spot, and i think Rodney Hood will be up for that task. He seems like a good kid with brain screwed correctly ala Kawhi & Danny.

They have Burks coming back as well.

Can't wait to see the Timberwolves shock the league. KG has so much firepower!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

With the Western Conference so strong, Portland losing a lot of players and the healthy (?) return of KD in OKC. Just wondering who do you think will not qualify for the playoffs in the West?

This is what I have.

These teams are in. (in no particular order)
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies

On the bubble.
New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns (swap with Minny)

Some hope.
Minnesota Timberwolves (swap with Phoenix)
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz

Not going anywhere.
Sacramento Kings
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaNu4Tres

Crazy to think two of these teams will not advance past the 1st round.

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Houston and Memphis, but the Spurs wouldn't surprise me at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrunkTXLabrat

Can't wait to see the Timberwolves shock the league. KG has so much firepower!

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Jazz, Pels, T-Wolves, Kings are sort of X-factors for me. There's a lot of variance in how well they may do.

Nuggets could hover around .500 too if Mudiay and Malone pan out immediately.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Nuggets could hover around .500 too if Mudiay and Malone pan out immediately.

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Haven't studied their roster; but I have the Nuggets penciled in for about 27 wins.

That's realistic if Mudiay is not ready for big mins. Roster about the same as last year minus Lawless.

Why don't Adam silver just swap 2 teams from both conference that could change the league and make the league better. Take Memphis and OKC and move them to eastern conference and bring Detroit and Atlanta to western conference. That would even up the strength of each conference. Who says no besides Altanta,Detroit and LeBron but this would be a better league. They gotta make changes or were just going to be bringing this up ever year why the western conference is brutal and eastern conference is a cakewalk. If they're going to give division winners and award them a better seeding then other teams that have a better record then they do. I'm so sick of of these owners meeting in the NBA because what the hell has changed, nothing. At least in the NFL they make changes for good of the league and it's like that every year but in NBA I don't think anything has changed. They need to make Europe rule about the goaltending call. U can hit the ball as long as it hits the rim. The flop rule and fine is a joke and it doesn't do anything but let everyone know in the world that player X got busted for a flop. Who gives a flying fuck. What u guys think? NBA needs changes

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Old School 44

With the Western Conference so strong, Portland losing a lot of players and the healthy (?) return of KD in OKC. Just wondering who do you think will not qualify for the playoffs in the West?

This is what I have.

These teams are in. (in no particular order)
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies

On the bubble.
New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns

Some hope.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz

Not going anywhere.
Sacramento Kings
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets

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"Some hope" should be disbanded. The Jazz should be moved up to the "On the bubble" tier and the Timberwolves and Lakers should be moved down to the "Not going anywhere" tier.

Out of the four "On the bubble", I'd lean towards the Pelicans and Jazz, but I don't think it's as clear cut as some make it out to be.

Lakers have no hope. Not sure how TD 21 came to the conclusion that they'd possibly be anything at all. And the Kings frankly have some hope, too. They have significant pieces in their primes.

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Originally Posted by SpursIndonesia

They still need a scoring punch from either SG or PG spot, and i think Rodney Hood will be up for that task. He seems like a good kid with brain screwed correctly ala Kawhi & Danny.

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Don't underestimate having Exum replace Burke in the starting lineup and letting Burke go up against backups. Should be additive. Add in Hood and it's a start.

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Originally Posted by cjw

Don't underestimate having Exum replace Burke in the starting lineup and letting Burke go up against backups. Should be additive. Add in Hood and it's a start.

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Well, Exum will be out for a while it seems. I don't like both Burk(e)s of the Jazz, Alec & Trey, defensive sieves that put a lot of pressure on Rudy to clean up their mistakes on the perimeter.

It's ironic that the GM that trashed on Jimmer and the Jazz fan base drafted the shiesta that is Exum at number four overall.

To be fair, Exum showed more raw potential in his first 12 months in the league than Jimmer did in 4 years.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

To be fair, Exum showed more raw potential in his first 12 months in the league than Jimmer did in 4 years.

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Dafuq are you smoking?

Dude was a killer defender in spurts but lacked consistency. I guess you have to watch the games rather than look at the stats.

Man that's a tough conference. I feel the Spurs tend to get relatively more early season wins compared to other teams because of their corporate knowledge. This year though they'll be one of the team's incorporating new significant pieces so we'll see. Can't afford to start slow.

The Jazz look good. It'll be between them and Mavs for the last slot.

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Originally Posted by MaNu4Tres

How true that is despite Dell Demps being an ignoramus.

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I figured he and Gentry were the reason the Pels aren't in the lock column. :)

Gentry actually has a very good resume. He got the Suns to the WCF. Great assistant stints. Players like him.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Dude was a killer defender in spurts but lacked consistency. I guess you have to watch the games rather than look at the stats.

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Exum's defensive rating was terrible even with Gobert backing him. And his offense was even worse. Saying he showed more potential? Potential's a pretty finicky judgment call to begin with...But the stats definitely aren't translating to this: "Exum showed more raw potential in his first 12 months in the league than Jimmer did in 4 years."

Jimmer career PP36: 16.2, 41.2 FG, 38.1 3 FG (and led the league in deep 3 shooting at one point)
Exum career PP36: 7.8, 34.9 FG, 31.4 3 FG

Yes, Exum has the quickness and long arms and people are rightfully hopeful that he buds nicely. But come on, man. You can't be so haphazardly selling Jimmer short.

D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Jimmer was 22 as a rookie. Exum 19. R-A-W potential. As in Star potential. I watched 10 Jazz games past February. Exum was raw as hell, but multifaceted. Jimmer was and is just a gunner. He can work for us as a shooter, but his ceiling is low. I have a feeling PATFO would pick Exum over Jimmer given the chance, and that proves the potential argument. You know , the potential argument I made.

Clips are going to be damn good.

Isn't the Lakers first rounder going to the Sixers in 2016? If so, there is no use in trying to tank just to get a top prospect. They should struggle quite a bit, even if fully healthy. Still, I do like that kid, Brown, from Stanford......and although he is a Laker, I do root for Clarkson, since he went to San Antonio Wagner HS. I believe he is the first basketball player from JISD to make it to the NBA. I know Wagner has another guy who is in the NBA as well, but I think Clarkson was the first.

They keep it if it's Top 3

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Jimmer was 22 as a rookie. Exum 19. R-A-W potential. As in Star potential. I watched 10 Jazz games past February. Exum was raw as hell, but multifaceted. Jimmer was and is just a gunner. He can work for us as a shooter, but his ceiling is low. I have a feeling PATFO would pick Exum over Jimmer given the chance, and that proves the potential argument. You know , the potential argument I made.

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Sorry, dude, but Jimmer's not merely a gunner with a low ceiling. Exum has long arms and good athleticism. But that doesn't always translate for various reasons. He played like a scrub last season; but he might end up being a quality role player. I doubt he'll be a star player though.

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Originally Posted by SpursIndonesia

Well, Exum will be out for a while it seems. I don't like both Burk(e)s of the Jazz, Alec & Trey, defensive sieves that put a lot of pressure on Rudy to clean up their mistakes on the perimeter.

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Yeah, sorry for the jinx, Jazz fans. Exum going down will seriously impact their playoff odds.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cjw

Yeah, sorry for the jinx, Jazz fans. Exum going down will seriously impact their playoff odds.

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I don't agree.

He was awful last year and he was going to be awful again this year.

Alec Burks is back which will be a huge relief, and Neto is very intriguing.

If the Jazz were gonna make the Playoffs this year, it'd be with or without Exum.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cjw

Yeah, sorry for the jinx, Jazz fans. Exum going down will seriously impact their playoff odds.

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People have this odd perception that Exum is a great part of the Jazz's core. I guess it's from being the fourth overall pick on an improving team. But Exum played poorly in his rookie season.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Sorry, dude, but Jimmer's not merely a gunner with a low ceiling. Exum has long arms and good athleticism. But that doesn't always translate for various reasons. He played like a scrub last season; but he might end up being a quality role player. I doubt he'll be a star player though.

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He's 26 and almost out of the league. I'd say that constitutes 'low ceiling'. He can still be a Mills type impact gunner, but no more. Exum has the physical tools and drive to be a star. I too actually doubt he will be one but still, the possibility is there.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

He's 26 and almost out of the league. I'd say that constitutes 'low ceiling'. He can still be a Mills type impact gunner, but no more. Exum has the physical tools and drive to be a star. I too actually doubt he will be one but still, the possibility is there.

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Exum has no more shot than Jimmer to be 'a star' at this point, imo. It could be argued more or less depending on someone's outlook I suppose though.

I don't think Jimmer being 'almost out of the league' means much to what he can do. He's never been in the right situation. He's still plenty prime and arguably has a higher ceiling than Exum.

You talk about Jimmer's ceiling being Patty Mills. But look at the per 36's. Jimmer has already done what Patty has done in that regard. The difference is that Patty was not in bad systems. And maybe Jimmer will be relatively lucky to top out at a Patty Mills type of role when it's all said in done. But imo, he can surpass that given the opportunity to do so.

If Pop and RC had their pick right now between Jimmer and Exum ( sans injury ), for the same salary, who would they choose? Who would the other 29 teams choose? That's what potential is.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

If Pop and RC had their pick right now between Jimmer and Exum ( sans injury ), for the same salary, who would they choose? Who would the other 29 teams choose? That's what potential is.

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That's what conventional thinking is; not necessarily potential.

I'll take 30 FOs' worth of 'conventional thinking' over any fan's assessment, including mine.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

I'll take 30 FOs' worth of 'conventional thinking' over any fan's assessment, including mine.

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Well, that's the difference between you and me then; I don't view the guys who get paid to do this as any smarter than many educated fans. In many cases, they're dumber. Kawhi Leonard being drafted at 15 should tell you that.

Yeah...well... I'm not seriously going to argue that. Every person of age, education , work experience and common sense can have his own educated opinion on whether he'd go with the median of 30 highly paid executives' assessment or an educated fan's scouting report.

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Originally Posted by dweaver99027

Yeah...well... I'm not seriously going to argue that. Every person of age, education , work experience and common sense can have his own educated opinion on whether he'd go with the median of 30 highly paid executives' assessment or an educated fan's scouting report.

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You look at every draft. You'll routinely find busts in the top ten and a handful of players that should've been drafted top fifteen. These execs have every tool at their disposal and they still get it that wrong with regularity.

Many of these execs are retired players who were not that smart to begin with. Others are Ivy League egg heads who want think matters come down to precise formulas. I see plenty of stupidity at every level in this game.

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Originally Posted by Baseline21

Why don't Adam silver just swap 2 teams from both conference that could change the league and make the league better. Take Memphis and OKC and move them to eastern conference and bring Detroit and Atlanta to western conference. That would even up the strength of each conference. Who says no besides Altanta,Detroit and LeBron but this would be a better league. They gotta make changes or were just going to be bringing this up ever year why the western conference is brutal and eastern conference is a cakewalk. If they're going to give division winners and award them a better seeding then other teams that have a better record then they do. I'm so sick of of these owners meeting in the NBA because what the hell has changed, nothing. At least in the NFL they make changes for good of the league and it's like that every year but in NBA I don't think anything has changed. They need to make Europe rule about the goaltending call. U can hit the ball as long as it hits the rim. The flop rule and fine is a joke and it doesn't do anything but let everyone know in the world that player X got busted for a flop. Who gives a flying fuck. What u guys think? NBA needs changes

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Hawks gotta stay in the east tbh.

Memphis definitely needs to be an east team, tbh.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

People have this odd perception that Exum is a great part of the Jazz's core. I guess it's from being the fourth overall pick on an improving team. But Exum played poorly in his rookie season.

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Yes, he was awful but don't forget he was 19 last year. Had a real chance of surpassing a very limited Burke this year.

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Originally Posted by cjw

Yes, he was awful but don't forget he was 19 last year. Had a real chance of surpassing a very limited Burke this year.

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A chance; but far from a sure fire thing.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

You look at every draft. You'll routinely find busts in the top ten and a handful of players that should've been drafted top fifteen. These execs have every tool at their disposal and they still get it that wrong with regularity.

Many of these execs are retired players who were not that smart to begin with. Others are Ivy League egg heads who want think matters come down to precise formulas. I see plenty of stupidity at every level in this game.

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This makes me curious. You're completely right, but could educated fans make better decisions?

For instance, were fans thinking Kawhi was a top 10 pick? I always thought he was a surprise that made the Spurs FO look like geniuses.

I'm not saying OKC won't make it, but I'm not sold on the fact they're a lock. KD is a huge question mark at the moment. And we know that without him they're not going anywhere. On top of that WB has had even more time in the limelight and nobody knows how he will adjust. I'm really not sold on their alleged "chemistry" either, so it could all blow up ala Lillard-LMA, and sooner than later if you ask me.

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Originally Posted by NameLess Scrub

This makes me curious. You're completely right, but could educated fans make better decisions?

For instance, were fans thinking Kawhi was a top 10 pick? I always thought he was a surprise that made the Spurs FO look like geniuses.

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Building teams is not the rocket science people pretend it is. Though, as the CBA rules become more complex, the system does favor the more savvy mind now.

And I agree that the KL draft didn't show how smart PATFO is so much as it showed how stupid the league is/was in general. I think it's a lot like that across all the major sports, tbh.